Eurozone's latest lead growth indicator Eurocoin (CEPR and Banca d'Italia) has hit a new low for the year in June.
In June the €- coin index declined from -0.03% to -0,17%, indicating a further worsening of cyclical economic difficulties. The decline is due principally to the markedly worse results of opinion surveys of firms and households and, to a lesser extent, to trends in share prices.
Charts below:
My forecast, consistent with eurocoin data is for growth in Q2 of -0.25-0.37% in GDP, as per below:
The monetary policy remains stuck in 'ineffective' mode:
Rotten to the core!
In June the €- coin index declined from -0.03% to -0,17%, indicating a further worsening of cyclical economic difficulties. The decline is due principally to the markedly worse results of opinion surveys of firms and households and, to a lesser extent, to trends in share prices.
Charts below:
My forecast, consistent with eurocoin data is for growth in Q2 of -0.25-0.37% in GDP, as per below:
The monetary policy remains stuck in 'ineffective' mode:
Rotten to the core!
1 comment:
Interesting--have you considered plotting the trajectory the points in sequence of your last figure, and consider it as a statement of the time-evolution of the system (rather than something to put a best-fit line through)?
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