Monday, June 18, 2012

18/6/2012: Irish Trade in Goods: April 2012

In the previous post (here) I highlighted some concerns emerging from April 2012 data on trade in goods. Now, let's take a look at actual data. All data is seasonally adjusted.

April imports volume came in at €3,561 million, down 22.5% or €1,034 million on March 2012 and down 27.61% or €1,358 million on April 2011. Historical average for monthly imports is €4,417 million, while crisis period average is €4,121 million. 12mo MA is €3,945 million. All of this means that current April imports are seriously under-trend and we can expect either an uptick going forward or continued weakness. The former would imply recovery in exports, the latter would imply continued slowdown in exports.

Compared to same period 2010, Imports are now running down -15.64%.

April volume of exports was €6,993 million down €713 million or -9.25% m/m and down €584 million or -7.71% y/y. Exports in April were down 3.08% on April 2010. Current level of imports is significantly below historical average of €7,289 million and crisis period average of €7,407. 12mo MA is €7,647.

Trade surplus has risen on foot of rapid fall off of imports despite a rather pronounced drop in exports. Trade surplus stood at €3,432 million, up €320 million (+10.28%) m/m and up €774 million (+29.12%) y/y. Compared to April 2010, April 2012 trade surplus for goods trade is up 14.63%.

Average monthly surplus is €2,872 million and crisis period average is €3,286 million. 12mo MA is ahead of both at €3,702 million.

January-April 2012 imports are down 7.2%, exports are down 0.9% and trade surplus is up 7.6% year on year.

Imports intensity of exports (or ratio of exports €€s per € of imports) is now at 196.4 - up on March level of 167.7 and up on 154.0 in April 2011. Historical average ratio is 168% and crisis period average is 182%. 12mo MA ratio is 195 and January-April 2012 average ratio is up 6.6% y/y.

The CSO has not reported any terms of trade indices since December 2011.

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