4/9/2012: H1 2012 Trade in Goods & busted expectations

At first I resisted (rather successfully) for a number of days from blogging about the trade in goods stats for June released on August 16th. Aside from the already rather apparent pharma patent cliff and resulting collapse of exports to the US, there is little to be blogged about here. Well, may be on some BRICs data, but that will come later, when I am to update bilateral trade with Russia stats.

Then, playing with the numbers I ended up with the following two charts showing trade stats for H1 2012:

As dynamics show in the chart above, Ireland's goods exports are... err... static in H1 2012 compared to H1 2011 - down 1.69% y/y compared to H1 2011 and this comes against a rise in exports of 5.91% y/y in H1 2011 (compared to H1 2010). The exports-led recovery has meant that in H1 2008 exports are up just 3.62% on H1 2008 and are down 0.58% on H1 2007. Recovery? What recovery?

Of course, over the same period of time, imports fell 3.14% on H1 2011 (after rising 9.25% y/y in H1 2011 compared to H1 2010), and in H1 2012 imports stood at 20.09% below their H1 2008 and down 23.20% on their H1 2007 levels.

Which means that our exports-led recovery is currently running as follows: imports are down substantially more than exports (which is accounted for primarily by the collapse in domestic demand and investment activities), while exports are running only slightly behind their pre-crisis levels.

Thus, trade balance was up 0.05% y/y in H1 2012, while it is up 58.49% on H1 2008 and 51.48% on H1 2007. The body that is the Irish economy is producing  pint of surplus blood by draining 5 pints and re-injecting 4 pints back. Hardly a prescription for curing the sick according to modern medicine approach.

But that alone is not what keeping me focused on the numbers. Instead, it is the hilarity of our captains' expectations when it comes to the proposition that 'exports will rescue us'. Many years ago, in the days when the crisis was just only starting to roar its head, I said clearly and loudly: exports are hugely important, but they alone will not be sufficient to lift us out of this mess. Back then, I had Brugel Institute folks arguing with me that current account surpluses will ensure that ireland's debt levels are sustainable. Not sure if they changed their tune, but here's what the Government analysis was based on, put against the reality.

In the chart below, I took 3 sets of Government own forecasts for growth in exports for 2009-2012, extracted from Budget 2010, 2011 and 2012. I then combined these assumptions into 3 scenarios: Max refers to maximum forecast for specific year projected by the Department of Finance, Min references the lowest forecast number, and the Average references the unweighted average of all forecasts available for each specific year. I applied these to exports statistics as reported for 2009 and plotteed alongside actual outrun:

Current H1 2012 outrun for exports is €449 million lower than the worst case scenarios built into the Budgets 2010-2012 by the Governments. It is also €4,399 million behind the highest forecasts.

Put differently, the outcome for H1 2012 is worse than the darkest prediction delivered by the Department for Finance.

Of course, the exercise only refers to goods exports and must be caveated by the fact that our services exports might take up the slack. So no panic, yet. And a further caveat should be added to reflect the fact that the above is not our exporters fault, as we are clearly suffering from the tightness in global trade. On the minus side, there's a caveat that the pharma patent cliff has been visible for years and that the Government has claimed that they are capable of addressing this.

Sleepless nights should not be caused by the latest stats, yet. But if things remain of this path, they will come.

18/6/2012: Irish Trade in Goods: April 2012

In the previous post (here) I highlighted some concerns emerging from April 2012 data on trade in goods. Now, let's take a look at actual data. All data is seasonally adjusted.

April imports volume came in at €3,561 million, down 22.5% or €1,034 million on March 2012 and down 27.61% or €1,358 million on April 2011. Historical average for monthly imports is €4,417 million, while crisis period average is €4,121 million. 12mo MA is €3,945 million. All of this means that current April imports are seriously under-trend and we can expect either an uptick going forward or continued weakness. The former would imply recovery in exports, the latter would imply continued slowdown in exports.

Compared to same period 2010, Imports are now running down -15.64%.

April volume of exports was €6,993 million down €713 million or -9.25% m/m and down €584 million or -7.71% y/y. Exports in April were down 3.08% on April 2010. Current level of imports is significantly below historical average of €7,289 million and crisis period average of €7,407. 12mo MA is €7,647.

Trade surplus has risen on foot of rapid fall off of imports despite a rather pronounced drop in exports. Trade surplus stood at €3,432 million, up €320 million (+10.28%) m/m and up €774 million (+29.12%) y/y. Compared to April 2010, April 2012 trade surplus for goods trade is up 14.63%.

Average monthly surplus is €2,872 million and crisis period average is €3,286 million. 12mo MA is ahead of both at €3,702 million.

January-April 2012 imports are down 7.2%, exports are down 0.9% and trade surplus is up 7.6% year on year.

Imports intensity of exports (or ratio of exports €€s per € of imports) is now at 196.4 - up on March level of 167.7 and up on 154.0 in April 2011. Historical average ratio is 168% and crisis period average is 182%. 12mo MA ratio is 195 and January-April 2012 average ratio is up 6.6% y/y.

The CSO has not reported any terms of trade indices since December 2011.

18/6/2012: Irish Trade: April 2012 disappoints

Irish trade stats for trade in goods are out for April. The numbers are, frankly put, alarming.

Remember, we are supposed to generate robust exports growth in order to even sustain the misery of the ongoing austerity. April 2011 SPU envisioned exports growth of 6.8% in 2011 and 5.7% in 2012. Budget 2012 envisioned 2011 exports expansion of 4.6% and 2012 exports growth of 3.6%. April 2012 SPU set 2011 achieved exports growth of 4.1% - down massive 2.7 percentage points on year-ahead forecast of April 2011 and down 0.5 percentage points on Budget 2012 assumption. But more significantly, April 2012 SPU revised 2012 projected exports growth to 3.3%. So within a year, exports forecast for 2012 has dropped from 5.7% to 3.3%.

Even more realistic IMF is projecting exports growth of 3.0% this year (see the first table here).

And the latest data is not encouraging. For tarde in goods only, January 2012-April 2012 period total volume of imports is down 7.17% y/y, while total volume of exports is down 0.87%. Not up 3.3%, but down almost 1%. Trade surplus is up 7.7%, but that is due to fall-off in imports that can mean only two things: either imports accelerate much faster than exports in months ahead as MNCs rebuild their diminishing stocks of inputs, or imports do not accelerate as MNCs cut back exports output. Not a good thing.

And worse. In January 2012, seasonally adjusted exports grew robust 14.1% y/y, but in February they shrunk 9.8%. This was followed by 1.5% growth again in March and now it is followed up by a massive 7.7% contraction in April. Thus average rate of growth in exports in the first four months of 2012 is -0.59%. Things are volatile in goods exports, but that is an alarming trend.

I will deal with detailed exports and trade stats for goods for April in the second post - stay tuned.

3/3/2012: Irish Merchandise Trade 2011 (preliminary estimates)

With some delay, updating Ireland's external trade figures for merchandise trade for December 2011 data. Instead of doing a monthly update, let's take a look at the annual figures. Please keep in mind that December numbers incorporated here are preliminary estimates by the CSO. And do also remember that this is trade in goods / merchandise trade ONLY - the CSO doesn't wish to distinguish it as such in its releases, but this data does not include trade in invisibles / services.

Chart below shows exports, imports and trade balance in goods trade:

•  Imports value posted significant increase in 2011 of 5.65% yoy after a shallow rise of 0.62% in 2010. 3 year average rate of change in imports remains deeply negative, however at -5.13%, a year ago it was -9.85%.
• Exports rose 3.88% yoy, reaching the level of €92.71bn, the second highest level in history after €93.68bn in 2002. Last year, exports rose 5.26% yoy. 3 years average rise now stand at 2.31% against previous year 3 year average increase of 0.05%.
• Trade surplus rose to another historic high of €44.32bn - up 2.0% yoy - a significant accomplishment, but a slowdown in the rate of growth of 10.64% achieved in the 2010. In 2010, 3 year average rate of increases in trade surplus was 19.62% and in 2011 it was 16.64%.
• Record trade surpluses have now been recorded in 2009, 2010 and 2011, implying that the 'exports-led recovery' is now full 3-years strong without a corresponding translation into full economic recovery.

Chart below shows imports intensity of our exports - the ratio of exports to imports expressed in percentage terms.

Per chart above, our exports remain largely divorced from imports, which strongly suggests that the last 3 years (during which imports intensity was well above the historic average of 150%) the core driver for exports and trade balance performance was transfer pricing, not the real economic activity. Chart below illustrates the differential between volume of trade consistent with 9-year MA intensity and the actual volume of trade, with the MA-consistent trend stripping out some recent transfer pricing activity out of the exports figures (note, this, of course, is a highly imperfect measure, so treat the chart as being simply illustrative).

Economics 01/07/2010: Recovery or a triple dip?

So the recession is over… or it just went into a triple dip… you have a say.

Today’s QNA for Q1 2010 showed a 2.7% increase in real GDP compared with the final quarter of last year. This brings to an end eight consecutive quarters of economic contraction – the longest recession of all advanced economies to date.

What happened? Have you felt that warm wind of spring back in March and decided that it is time for Ireland Inc to start upward march to renewed prosperity?

Err… not really. What did happen was a simple trick: Deflation took out a bite out of the price level adjustment, as nominal GDP grew a fantastically unnoticeable and statistically indifferent from zero 0.0956%. Yes, that’s right, less than one tenth of one percent. Take a snapshot: in Q1 2010, our MNCs-led exporting economy was better off than in Q4 2009 by a whooping €37 million, while our domestic economy shed another €2,199 million. Don't know about you, I feel so much richer today than back in December 2009...

One has to be sarcastic about the Government that needs a massive deflation to generate economic growth. Industry gains - again driven by MNCs manufacturing - are clearly not supported by domestic services and construction.
Oh, and subsidies-reliant sectors - Government and Agriculture - are going relatively strong. Clearly CAP is recession proof - per chart below - with Agriculture up 84% on Q4 2009. Investment continues to compress: capital formation down 14% qoq, and 30% yoy. And that’s gross! Government spending was down a paltry 0.9% qoq or €96 million – a clear slowdown in deficit reduction efforts. Give it a thought, we will be borrowing this year some €17bn - not accounting for banks alone. At the current rate of Government spending contraction, Q1 2010 reductions in public spending (net!) will cover just 10% of our annual interest bill on one year worth of borrowing!
Consumer spending contracted further by 0.2% supported from hitting much greater decline numbers by services spending and, potentially, 2010 registration plates fetish. Remember, total retail sales are down more than 6% in Q1 2010. Added support to consumer spending was winter freeze, which was a boost to the likes of state-owned ESB and Bord Gas – carbon footprint notwithstanding, good news for state monopolized energy sector.

Time for champagne, then? Perhaps not quite vintage variety yet, but some bubbly? I am afraid not.

There’s another trick to the data: Net exports boomed – as we imported fewer things to consume, invest and use in future production, while Ireland-based MNCs booked on massive profits. So massive in fact that net increases in transfers of profits abroad were literally bang on (take few euros) with net increase in our trade balance.

This has to be the fakest ‘recovery’ one can imagine.

Before charts, illustrating the above, few more points. Services exports were particularly strong (good news):

• volume of goods exports rose 2.4% yoy in Q1 2010,
• volume of services exports was up 9.5% yoy.

Services – the Cinderella of our external trade policies – now account for 46% of total exports.

As MNCs-driven economy steamed ahead, domestic economy continued to contract -0.5% in Q1 2010, in qoq terms. Profits expatriation by the MNCs reached €7.9bn in Q1, up from €7.1 in Q4, and GDP/GNP gap widened to over 20% in quarterly terms.

Should things stay on this 'recovery' course, by the end of this year some 26% of our entire economy's output will be stuff that has nothing to do with our economy. That would put us on par with some serious banana republics out there as an offshore centre. And not that I, personally mind. It's just fine that companies book profits via Ireland Inc. The problem is when we, the natives, start believing the hype that our GDP generates.

Seeing much of a recovery anywhere?

And a more detailed look at exports and imports - the causes of our today's celebration:

As I have pointed out many times before, our MNCs need imported components, goods etc in order to generate exports. So as imports fall, two things come to mind:

1. A serious concern that lower imports might reflect slowing down of MNCs-led exporting; and/or
2. A serious concern that our consumers (dependent on imports) are still running away from our retail sector.

You be the judge as to what really goes on, but either way, this is not a good omen. The 'recovery' might be a Pyrrhic victory.

At any rate, you'd need a microscope to notice that we are out of a recession in the chart below:
But you can clearly see what's going on on that side of economy which generates jobs, pays our bills and actually translates into our standards of living (aside from Government stuff, that is):

Welcome to an MNCs-led recovery, then:
If it doesn't feel like much of a boom, then don't listen to anyone saying 'We've finally turned the corner'. Or be warned it might be a dead-end alley, or worse a brick wall...

Economics 30/01/2010: Eurocoin and Obama's new-old plans

Two topics worth covering: the Eurozone leading indicator issued last week and President Obama’s new ‘Tougher on taxes’ talk to the Congress…


First, the usual monthly update on Eurocoin – a comprehensive leading indicator for Euroarea growth. After straight 12 months of rising, the indicator is now standing at the level not seen since March 2007.
This is consistent with a strong growth signal for months ahead for the Euroarea core economies.


Now to the story of the week that was not covered (at least not from this angle) in our press. In his State of the Union speech this Wednesday, President Obama said,
“To encourage ... businesses to stay within our borders, it is time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas, and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs right here in the United States of America...”

Oh, boy – this is turning into one of those typically European sagas: occasionally, the EU is prone to produce daft laws and proposals – the Insurance Gender Directive is a good example of one, the Lisbon Agenda is another. In a typical EU-fashion, bad ideas never die. They just get dragged into the closet, rested for a couple of years and then unleashed again. Until even the daftest policies pass into power.

Well, now it is starting to look like the Obama Administration is taking the same approach.

Under current law, income earned abroad is taxed according to two separate categories: general and passive. Passive income covers capital gains, dividends, and other returns on investment. What’s left is general income and it is subject to a higher rate of tax – the corporate tax.

Under the Obama proposal, a US corporation will have to compute its foreign tax credit on an aggregated basis – taking all foreign earnings and profits of all its foreign subsidiaries and subtracting total foreign taxes paid. If that isn’t bad enough, subsidiaries in higher tax countries will face a ceiling on how much credit they can claim against their earnings for the purpose of the Federal tax liability.

There is absolutely no reason for this, and in fact it is arguably a discriminatory policy, but hey – when it comes to ‘tax and spend’ madness, no one can beat the Democrats – the Feds are estimating the net revenue from the measure to reach between USD24.5bn (US Treasury estimate) and USD45.5bn (JC Committee on Taxation).

And all of these taxes will apply before the companies actually repatriate earnings back to the US.

Now, all of this has some connection to Ireland Inc. We’ve heard before some experts (usually from the companies that can’t really tell us what they think in fear of upsetting Government officials) saying that Obama Plan is not a biggy threat to Ireland. That, you see, our MNCs are here because our workforce is packed with Nobel Prize winners (we are that good at education!) and our energy/water/communications/transport/etc infrastructure is so world class. They are, the MNCs that is, here not because of tax arbitrage… But seriously – we do depend critically on US MNCs operations in the country.

Here is an interesting comment on the Obama speech from an Indian specialist site dealing with outsourcing:

“A tax expert from one of the top four auditing firms, who did not wish to be identified, said: "I think Obama is talking about the same thing when he took over as President. The way this works is; captive units of US firms in any other geography (it could be India, Philippines, China, etc.) are considered different entities under US tax rules. US firms pay tax on the income from these subsidiaries only when they repatriate these earnings (profits) to the US. Firms need to pay 34 to 35 per cent of federal tax on these earnings. In most cases, US firms do not send the money back to the US as they continued to invest this money in expansion and other operations. Now the US government is saying it will match deduction and income together, so they will not get the tax benefits," he said.

The thing is – India and China and many other locations will probably be ok, because they provide high productivity relative to low cost base. Ireland doesn’t do either. So what will keep the MNCs here if Obama gets his wish? For the next 5 years – the capital already sunk here. But after that? Not much. No, really, not much…