Monday, August 6, 2012

6/82012: A Spooky Chart of Decade?

A spooky chart of decade? Why, this one of course:

The chart comes from The Great Leveraging, by Alan M. Taylor, CEPR DP 9082.

Yes, folks, the upward path in the red line - the dependency ratio for more developed regions - is scary enough. Fair play. Although we all knew it. The really monstrous bit is the green line rise from 2030 on and the relative flattening of its decline from 2015 onward. Why is it "monstrous"? Because until recently, immigration into the advanced economies from developing economies was taken as a given. Now, not so much anymore. So, as the dolphins sign in my favorite film: "So long & Thanks for all the fish / So sad that it should come to this / We tried to warn you all but oh dear..." Never say we haven't told you (Europeans) that abandoning family for the sake of social benefits and improved consumption of holidays is not a good idea, but it is even dafter when one thinks that the sources of cheap labour might just run out pretty soon... in and around 2010-2025...
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