Monday, November 7, 2011

07/11/2011: Producer Confidence in EU27, Euro area and Euro area Big 4


In the previous post we looked at the historical (and latest) data for Consumer Confidence in EU27 and the Euro area. This post updates data for Producer Confidence (Industrial Producers segment).

Business Confidence indicator fell from -5.7 in September 2011 to -6.8 in October for EU27. The decline marks continued downward trend with index below zero for the third month in a row. 3mo MA is now at -5.0 against 6mo MA of -2.4. Historical average is at -6.1 against pre-Euro period average of -5.6 and Euro period average of -6.8.

The indicator slipped to -6.6 in October, down from -5.9 in September for Euro area sub-sample. This too was the third consecutive month of index reading below zero. 3mo MA is at -5.1 against 6mo MA of -2.2. Pre-euro period average is -5.6 against post-euro introduction average of -6.2.



The index deteriorated mom in Germany (+1.4 in September to -0.7 in October), and Italy (-9.8 to -10.3) and on both countries 3mo MA is now below 6mo MA. France (-8.3 to -7.6) and Spain (-16.0 to -13.8) saw a slowdown in the rate of decrease in confidence. Both countries also show deeper contractions over 3mo MA than over 6mo MA.

As chart below shows, as with Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence has moved from up-trend over time in the period before the introduction of the Euro to a negative trend since the introduction of the Euro. This effect, however, can be explained by the changes in the economic environments across the entire EU, not just within the Euro area. 


Comparatives for historical averages show that pre-euro period averages were above those attained post-euro introduction in Germany and Italy, virtually unchanged in France and lower in Spain. This is consistent with the long term effects of the construction sector bubble in Spain.
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