7/6/2012: QNHS Q1 2012 - Public Sector

In the previous post I covered some data for the public sector employment based on the main tables in QNHS dataset. QNHS also, handily, provides a specific public sector employment series that are supplied as an appendix and cover data for employment including and excluding census workers. This post deals with these.

Two charts below show the breakdown of public sector only employment by categories:

Interestingly, data suggests that reduction of public sector employment in health and education has been offset by increases in private sector employment in these sub-sectors (see previous post for more detailed analysis of total employment in these sub-sectors). This might be due to staff substitution and early retirees coming back via private sector.

Table below summarizes the data:

7/6/2012: QNHS Q1 2012: Sectoral Decomposition

In the previous post I covered the top-of-the-line data on QNHS for Q1 2012. This time, lets take a look at some sub-trends by occupation and public v private sector numbers.

A handy summary table to outline changes by occupation:

Few surprises in the above table are:

• Twin (q/q and y/y) rises in Wholesale & Retail Trade category, 
• Y/y rise in Accommodation and food service activities with a level increase of 8,600. This appears to confirm the Government claims on the sectoral jobs creation on the foot of jobs stimulus. The problem with comparatives is that the y/y increase comes on foot of a sudden decline in employment in the sub-sector in Q1 2011 when it fell to surprisingly low, seasonally-unjustified level of 102,900. Sub-sector employment remains down on Q1 2010 when it stood at 123,700 or 12,100 ahead of Q1 2012, and it is down on Q4 2011 when it was at 113,400 against Q1 2012 at 111,600. The core factor in Q1 2012 differential on Q1 2011 might have been not so much jobs creation as the increased expense of jobs reductions under Budget 2012. This, however, is speculative argument at best. My suggestion would be to wait and see how the numbers employed in the sector pan out in Q2 2012.
• Another surprising thing is that in the category of skills closely aligned with Accommodation and food service activities there was a decrease, not an increase, y/y in terms of employment. Caring, leisure and other service category of workers saw employment drop from 142,300 in Q1 2011 to 141,500 in Q1 2012. Something is not adding up, unless the jobs created in the sub-sector were managerial and/or associate professional and technical.
• Not surprisingly, ICT sub-sector grew employment y/y with 6.81% increase on Q1 2011 - the only private sector sub-sector that posted an increase in jobs on 2007 levels (+5.31%), with only other two sectors adding jobs on 2007 levels being Education (+4.64%) and Human Health and Social Activities (+6.57%).
• For all the claims of MNCs employment gains, the core sub-sector of Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities has seen employment shrinking, not rising in Q1 2012 relative to Q4 2011 (-0.53%), to Q1 2011 (-7.56%) and on 2007 (-15.44%). Striking feature of these changes is that this sector was the hardest hit in Q1 2012 of all sub-sectors listed by CSO, amidst the robust IDA and Government claims that jobs creation in MNCs is ongoing and that R&D and innovation activities are booming.

In the core series for sub-sectors:

• There was a recorded rise in Education sub-sector. Employment in education stood at 144,200 in Q1 2012 - up 2.2% (or 3,100) on Q4 2011 and down 2.2% (-3,200) on Q1 2011. Since Q1 2007, employment in the sector grew by 4.64% or +6,400.
• Employment levels in Health and social work activities fell q/q by 1.96% (-2,000) but are up on Q1 2011 by 1.72% (+4,000). Compared to Q1 2007, Q1 2012 employment in the sector is up 6.57% (+14,600). 
• The two sectors above represent front-line services in their definition.  Between them, during the austerity period the two sub-sectors added 29,700 new jobs.

And lastly, two charts on dependencies ratios. Without any comment.

28/11/2011: Employment in Irish economy: Q3/Q2 2011

The previous post (here) focused on the latest data for earnings across Irish economy, covering data through Q3 2011. Here, I provide the latest stats on employment numbers. Please note, CSO reports these only for Q2 2011 the latest, but sub-division of data for public sector is provided through Q3 2011.

Here are the core data points for Q2 2011

• In Q2 2011, there were 195,900 employed in Industry, down 1.36% yoy and up 0.82% qoq. The number is down 14.49% on Q3 2008 (third steepest rate of decline) despite the fact that industry is experiencing a pronounced exports boom.
• Construction sector employment is at 65,600 in Q2 2011, up 1.55% qoq, down 10.63% yoy and down 51.44% on Q3 2011 (the steepest drop of all series, and also the sharpest decline yoy).
• Wholesale & retail; repairs to vehicles and motorcycles sector employment stood at 276,600 in Q2 2011, down 1.18% yoy, up 2.29% qoq and down 11.71% on Q3 2008.
• Transportation and storage employment was at 65,700 in Q2 2011, up 0.77% qoq, up 6.31% yoy and down 5.06% on Q3 2008.
• Accommodation & food services employment was at 113,600, up 4.60% qoq,. down 9.84% yoy and down 24.06% on Q3 2011 (second sharpest contraction of all sectors on 2008 and also the second sharpest decline in yoy terms).
• Information & communication employed 53,400 in Q2 2011, up 5.12% qoq, down 2.73% yoy and down 10.40% on Q3 2008.
• Financial, insurance & real estate employment is at 91,000, up 3.88% qoq, down 1.09% yoy and down just 5.01% on Q3 2008, presumably they are selling more homes and financing more loans (of course, IFSC continues to perform strongly, in contrast to domestic services that are running excessive employment against continued business losses, to appease their largest shareholder - the Government).
• Professional, scientific & technical services are employing 72,100 in Q2 2011, dow 2.44% qoq, down 1.37% yoy and down 12.92% on Q3 2011.
• Administrative & support services employed 79,200 in Q2 2011, up 5.18% qoq, up 7.03% yoy and down 12% on Q3 2008.
• Public administration & defence employment stood at 112,100 in Q2 2011, down 5.72% qoq, down 6.74% yoy and down 6.97% on Q3 2008. This category posted the third sharpest decline yoy. It is also worth noting that figures for public sector reported here include census employees., although this distorts Q2 2011 data, but not Q3 2011 (as reported below).
• Education employment stood at 131,400 in Q2 2011, down 1.35% qoq, down 2.23% yoy and up 1.94% on Q3 2008.
• Human health and social work sector employment was 219,400 in Q2 2011, up 1.95% yoy, up 3.49% qoq and up 5.43% on Q3 2008.

Charts below illustrate:

Chart below summarizes Q2 2011 differences by two core sectors:

• Public sector employment rose to 404,300 in Q2 2011 up 0.02%qoq and up 0.55% yoy, but down 2.11% on Q3 2008.
• Private sector employment stood at 1,118,300 in Q2 2011, up 1.60% qoq, but down 2.60% yoy and down 15.43% on Q3 2008.
• Ratio of private sector workers to public sector wrokers has egnerally declined during the last 3 years, but improved slightly qoq in Q2 2011.

Chart below summarizes changes in employment for Q2 2011 compared to Q3 2008 listed above

CSO provides Q3 2011 data for employment in subsectors of the public sector and these are shown below compared to Q3 2008. This data is netted out for temporary census jobs that were recorded in Q2 2011, so no distortion there.

 On thing that stands out in the above. Ex-semi-states (-5.74%) and with semi-states (-5.78%) jobs losses in the public sector have been shallower in Q3 2011 than in private sector (for which we only have Q2 2011 data so far showing decline of 15.43% on Q3 2008). Even in the worst impacted Regional Bodies category, employment losses at -12.08% have been less severe than those in the private sector.

Economics 18/12/2009: Public Sector Earnings & Employment

Per CSO release today: is the Government is losing the fight to keep this economy afloat?

"Average weekly earnings in the Public Sector (ex Health) rose by 2.5% in the year to September 2009 from €945.18 to €969.11 per week. This compares to a rise of 3.2% in the year to June 2009."

Weekly earnings for

• the Regional Bodies rose by 4.6% (from €815.58 to €852.71)
  
• the Education Sector by 3.0%, from €944.49 to €973.10.
  
• An Garda Síochána, inclusive of overtime, fell by 0.8% from €1,196.19 to €1,186.37 per week. Their weekly earnings excluding overtime decreased slightly by 0.1% from €1,077.55 to €1,076.22 for the same period.
  

Over the four year period from September 2005 to September 2009, average weekly earnings in the Public Sector (excluding Health) rose by 14.2% from €848.94 to €969.11:

• Regional Bodies’ earnings rose by 15.3% (from €739.27 to €852.71),
  
• Semi State by 17.2% (from €902.95 to €1,058.46),
• An Garda Síochána, inclusive of overtime, rose by 8.8%,
• Education Sector rose by 11.5% in this period,
  
• Civil Service and the Defence Sector rose by approximately 18% (from €797.37 to €933.03 and €691.28 to €815.58 per week respectively).

Natural attrition with recruitment bans has produced a decline in PS employment from 369,100 in September 2008 to 360,900 in September 2009 - a decline of 8,200 or 2.22% - way too small compared to the declines in private sector employment and labor force. But the natural reduction rate is accelerating - there was a decrease of just 2,700 in a year to June 2009.

Nonetheless at this rate, it will take Ireland about 20 years before we reach the reasonable levels of public sector employment, comparable to other countries, which stands, given our size of labor force and lack of functional military sector, at around 250,000.

In the year to September 2009 employment in Regional Bodies fell from 40,400 to 37,000, a decrease of 3,400. In the same period there were 1,200 fewer people employed in the Civil Service where numbers dropped to 38,100 in September 2009. Employment in the Health Sector fell to 110,200 in the year to September 2009, a drop of 600. Employment in An Garda Síochána rose by 500 from 14,200 in September 2008 to 14,700 in September 2009.

In the four years to September 2009, employment in the Public Sector rose by 17,300 to 360,900

• Education Sector from 84,700 to 97,200, an increase of 12,500
• An Garda Síochána rose by 2,400 from 12,300 to 14,700,
  
• Health Sector from 101,500 to 110,200, an increase of 8,700,
• Regional Bodies employment decreased from 38,200 to 37,000, a drop of 1,200.

Updated charts as always (note, data goes back to Q1 2005, unlike CSO's latest release).

Employment numbers first.

Earnings last:
With two details: earnings by category within and outside 1 standard deviation of the mean:showing the lack of overall volatility in the public sector earnings, which shows that the argument offered by the unions that some occupations in PS earn less than others is simply statistically not true. They all earn pretty much the same:
Not a single sub-sector of the PS falls outside 2 standard deviations from the PS mean. Of course, homogeneity is the sign of the lack of proper pricing relative productivity. Then again, it is public sector we are talking about.

Public Sector's Missing 'Pains'

Charts below are self-illustrative:

• Public Sector Employment is up,

• Public Sector Wages are up,

• Public sector wages dispersion is extremely low across all categories, so Unions' claim that in some sectors wages are too low simply does not add up (per above and below)

• Cost Savings promised in July 2008, September 2008, October 2008, November 2008, December 2008, January 2009, February 2009, March 2009 and that will be promised comes next week's Mini-Budget are nowhere to be seen.

A lesson to be learned by Brian^2+Mary: you can announce vacuous plans but we'll catch you.

A lesson to be learned by voters: they (Brian, Brian & Mary) don't give a damn if we know or not.

Public Sector: A Feast Amidst the Plague: Update I

Here is another interesting observation concerning Public Sector earnings.

The figure below clearly shows that wages in the lowest earning categories of public sector fall within 1 standard deviation of the total public sector wage (i.e the average). This disputes an argument that there is any significant degree of heterogeneity in pay within our public sector.

Statistically, this shows that not a single category of workers in the Public Sector (identified by their respective sub-sectors of employment) earn less than the overall Public Sector average.

Indeed, this data (taken from the CSO - see here) proves that within the public sector, the so-called 'low paid' areas or professions enjoy a relatively average rate of pay, with the average itself being artificially inflated by the higher earning categories. In other words, there is no pleading relative poverty for any sub-sector of the public sector employment.

PS: Did anyone notice an apparently bizarre logic our public sector trade unions have taken to in arguing against any cuts in public sector wages?

Well, they are arguing that such a cut would be deflationary (in case you have not noticed, deflation is a new evil). Thus, their argument goes, to rescue our economy out of the current crisis, one should stick to the excessive wage increases granted to the public sector employees under the last Social Partnership deal. But hold on, weren't the same trade unions also arguing that high inflation in the past made it imperative to raise wages paid to the public sector employees?

In other words, ICTU/SIPTU and the rest of them are having it both ways: inflation or deflation, they'll have a pay rise in the name of the nation's economic health...

Have a cake, eat it, and get the rest of us to pay for both?

Public Sector: A Feast Amidst the Plague

According to the latest CSO figures (here):
“Average weekly earnings in the Public Sector (excluding Health) rose by 2.9% in the year to September 2008. The index of average earnings …rose by 3.6% for the same period. Average weekly earnings rose by 1.7% in the year to June 2008 while the index of average earnings rose by 2.5% for the same period.”

Oh, no, I am not making this up. Here is an illustration from CSO's release:Only a month-and-a-half after Mr Lenihan thundered first about saving €440mln in 2008 (he actually ended the year overspending €370mln rather than saving a penny) and €2bn in 2009 (we know where that promise is going) and a month before he launched his ‘patriotic’ tax increases in Budget 2009, according to CSO:
• Public sector wages were still climbing up, while
• Public sector employment… well, shall we let CSO speak on this:
“A total of 258,200 people were employed in the Public Sector (ex Health) in September 2008 compared to 251,100 in September 2007 [a rise of 7,100]. In the year to September 2008 employment in the Education sector increased from 93,500 to 97,900, a rise of 4,400. Overall employment in the Public Sector was 369,100 in September 2008, an increase of 5,200 compared with September 2007. Employment in the Health Sector decreased from 112,800 in September 2007 to 110,800 in September 2008, a decrease of 2,000.”

Chart illustrates…
All sub-sectors of public employment are up! While the rest of the economy is buckling under the weight of a severe recession.

Oh, dear, who can now take our Brian-Brian-Mary Trio seriously?


PS: to our previous post (here):
According to CSO release today, retail sales volumes fell by 1.2% m-o-m in November, with the annual rate of decline of 8.1% (exacerbating a 7.5% decline in October). The last time the annual rate fell to these levels was in February 1984. November core sales (ex-motor) volumes fell by 1.9% m-o-m, and by 7.8% y-o-y. Car sales were down 11% y-o-y. Overall, core retail sales have now fallen - in y-o-y terms - at a rate not seen since April 1975. Consumers are clearly boycotting Brian-Brian-Mary policies and spending only on bare necessities at home, preferring to take their Euros to Northern Ireland, the UK, the Continent, the US or anywhere else where they are welcomed. In doing so, they indeed fulfill their real (ass opposed to Lenihaenesque) patriotic duty of serving their families' needs!


PPS: a fellow economist (hat tip to Brian) just asked (rhetorically) if these figures mean that we might register and unadjusted decline in December retail sails. My view - quite possibly. And January sales, and February sales, and so on, well into a -4.5-6% fall in retail sales for 2009! Laffer Curve is merciless - raise taxes, see revenue evaporate. Brian-Brian-Mary should have been sent to Economics 101 before they were allowed to run the country!