28/11/2011: Employment in Irish economy: Q3/Q2 2011

The previous post (here) focused on the latest data for earnings across Irish economy, covering data through Q3 2011. Here, I provide the latest stats on employment numbers. Please note, CSO reports these only for Q2 2011 the latest, but sub-division of data for public sector is provided through Q3 2011.

Here are the core data points for Q2 2011

• In Q2 2011, there were 195,900 employed in Industry, down 1.36% yoy and up 0.82% qoq. The number is down 14.49% on Q3 2008 (third steepest rate of decline) despite the fact that industry is experiencing a pronounced exports boom.
• Construction sector employment is at 65,600 in Q2 2011, up 1.55% qoq, down 10.63% yoy and down 51.44% on Q3 2011 (the steepest drop of all series, and also the sharpest decline yoy).
• Wholesale & retail; repairs to vehicles and motorcycles sector employment stood at 276,600 in Q2 2011, down 1.18% yoy, up 2.29% qoq and down 11.71% on Q3 2008.
• Transportation and storage employment was at 65,700 in Q2 2011, up 0.77% qoq, up 6.31% yoy and down 5.06% on Q3 2008.
• Accommodation & food services employment was at 113,600, up 4.60% qoq,. down 9.84% yoy and down 24.06% on Q3 2011 (second sharpest contraction of all sectors on 2008 and also the second sharpest decline in yoy terms).
• Information & communication employed 53,400 in Q2 2011, up 5.12% qoq, down 2.73% yoy and down 10.40% on Q3 2008.
• Financial, insurance & real estate employment is at 91,000, up 3.88% qoq, down 1.09% yoy and down just 5.01% on Q3 2008, presumably they are selling more homes and financing more loans (of course, IFSC continues to perform strongly, in contrast to domestic services that are running excessive employment against continued business losses, to appease their largest shareholder - the Government).
• Professional, scientific & technical services are employing 72,100 in Q2 2011, dow 2.44% qoq, down 1.37% yoy and down 12.92% on Q3 2011.
• Administrative & support services employed 79,200 in Q2 2011, up 5.18% qoq, up 7.03% yoy and down 12% on Q3 2008.
• Public administration & defence employment stood at 112,100 in Q2 2011, down 5.72% qoq, down 6.74% yoy and down 6.97% on Q3 2008. This category posted the third sharpest decline yoy. It is also worth noting that figures for public sector reported here include census employees., although this distorts Q2 2011 data, but not Q3 2011 (as reported below).
• Education employment stood at 131,400 in Q2 2011, down 1.35% qoq, down 2.23% yoy and up 1.94% on Q3 2008.
• Human health and social work sector employment was 219,400 in Q2 2011, up 1.95% yoy, up 3.49% qoq and up 5.43% on Q3 2008.

Charts below illustrate:

Chart below summarizes Q2 2011 differences by two core sectors:

• Public sector employment rose to 404,300 in Q2 2011 up 0.02%qoq and up 0.55% yoy, but down 2.11% on Q3 2008.
• Private sector employment stood at 1,118,300 in Q2 2011, up 1.60% qoq, but down 2.60% yoy and down 15.43% on Q3 2008.
• Ratio of private sector workers to public sector wrokers has egnerally declined during the last 3 years, but improved slightly qoq in Q2 2011.

Chart below summarizes changes in employment for Q2 2011 compared to Q3 2008 listed above

CSO provides Q3 2011 data for employment in subsectors of the public sector and these are shown below compared to Q3 2008. This data is netted out for temporary census jobs that were recorded in Q2 2011, so no distortion there.

 On thing that stands out in the above. Ex-semi-states (-5.74%) and with semi-states (-5.78%) jobs losses in the public sector have been shallower in Q3 2011 than in private sector (for which we only have Q2 2011 data so far showing decline of 15.43% on Q3 2008). Even in the worst impacted Regional Bodies category, employment losses at -12.08% have been less severe than those in the private sector.

Economics 18/12/2009: Public Sector Earnings & Employment

Per CSO release today: is the Government is losing the fight to keep this economy afloat?

"Average weekly earnings in the Public Sector (ex Health) rose by 2.5% in the year to September 2009 from €945.18 to €969.11 per week. This compares to a rise of 3.2% in the year to June 2009."

Weekly earnings for

• the Regional Bodies rose by 4.6% (from €815.58 to €852.71)
  
• the Education Sector by 3.0%, from €944.49 to €973.10.
  
• An Garda Síochána, inclusive of overtime, fell by 0.8% from €1,196.19 to €1,186.37 per week. Their weekly earnings excluding overtime decreased slightly by 0.1% from €1,077.55 to €1,076.22 for the same period.
  

Over the four year period from September 2005 to September 2009, average weekly earnings in the Public Sector (excluding Health) rose by 14.2% from €848.94 to €969.11:

• Regional Bodies’ earnings rose by 15.3% (from €739.27 to €852.71),
  
• Semi State by 17.2% (from €902.95 to €1,058.46),
• An Garda Síochána, inclusive of overtime, rose by 8.8%,
• Education Sector rose by 11.5% in this period,
  
• Civil Service and the Defence Sector rose by approximately 18% (from €797.37 to €933.03 and €691.28 to €815.58 per week respectively).

Natural attrition with recruitment bans has produced a decline in PS employment from 369,100 in September 2008 to 360,900 in September 2009 - a decline of 8,200 or 2.22% - way too small compared to the declines in private sector employment and labor force. But the natural reduction rate is accelerating - there was a decrease of just 2,700 in a year to June 2009.

Nonetheless at this rate, it will take Ireland about 20 years before we reach the reasonable levels of public sector employment, comparable to other countries, which stands, given our size of labor force and lack of functional military sector, at around 250,000.

In the year to September 2009 employment in Regional Bodies fell from 40,400 to 37,000, a decrease of 3,400. In the same period there were 1,200 fewer people employed in the Civil Service where numbers dropped to 38,100 in September 2009. Employment in the Health Sector fell to 110,200 in the year to September 2009, a drop of 600. Employment in An Garda Síochána rose by 500 from 14,200 in September 2008 to 14,700 in September 2009.

In the four years to September 2009, employment in the Public Sector rose by 17,300 to 360,900

• Education Sector from 84,700 to 97,200, an increase of 12,500
• An Garda Síochána rose by 2,400 from 12,300 to 14,700,
  
• Health Sector from 101,500 to 110,200, an increase of 8,700,
• Regional Bodies employment decreased from 38,200 to 37,000, a drop of 1,200.

Updated charts as always (note, data goes back to Q1 2005, unlike CSO's latest release).

Employment numbers first.

Earnings last:
With two details: earnings by category within and outside 1 standard deviation of the mean:showing the lack of overall volatility in the public sector earnings, which shows that the argument offered by the unions that some occupations in PS earn less than others is simply statistically not true. They all earn pretty much the same:
Not a single sub-sector of the PS falls outside 2 standard deviations from the PS mean. Of course, homogeneity is the sign of the lack of proper pricing relative productivity. Then again, it is public sector we are talking about.

Economics 22/09/2009: Bleeding jobs...

CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey (QHNS) Q2 2009 shows ongoing collapse in employment in the country. After peaking at 2.14mln in Q1 2008, employment has now steadily declined and is now down 8.2% - the steepest fall in the history of these series. My prediction – by the year end the fall will total around 8.2-8.5% in annual terms, marking the sharpest decline since 1960s. Current employment stands at 1,938,500 – below the politically important 2 million mark for the second quarter in a row. The pace of employment falloffs is accelerating – in Q1 2009 employment contracted by 7.5% yoy, in Q2 2009 the rate of decline was 8.2%.

Per Ulster Bank note: “To put this in an international context, employment in the US fell by 4.3% from its peak (in Q1 ’08) to the second quarter of this year and that in the UK fell by about 2% on the same basis. So, mirroring the comparative weakness in the broader economy, the Irish labour market is experiencing a much more severe adjustment in employment than is the case among our main trading partners.” Then again, they’ve got a bit more competent political leaderships in the US and UK, that doesn’t raise taxes to pay its cronies wages, don’t they?

Unemployment rate amongst males now stands at 15.1% up from 4.8% in Q2 2007. Female unemployment rate has risen from 4.4% in Q2 2007 to 8.1% in the latest survey. Overall unemployment has gone from 4.7% in Q2 2007 to 5.7% in Q2 2008 and 12% in Q2 2009.



Numbers employed in various sectors are shown in the table below. Public sectors still showing no signs of cost reductions while the rest of economy is bleeding jobs… Public sector employment in Q2 2008-2009 is up ca 16,000. Now, An Bord Snip Nua recommended total numbers reduction of 17,300, which, if delivered would still leave Ireland at ca 2007 levels of public sector employees. Are you laughing yet? For a country borrowing €400mln per week – good half of which goes to pay wages in the public sector – this is really an achievement.
Table above shows another disturbing trend - forced 'entrepreneurship' - notice how more robust are the numbers of self-employed with no employees through the downturn, actually rising between Q2 2007 and Q2 2009. This is a sign of more people being forced to take up self employment in view of lacking full time jobs.

Charts below illustrate some other trends.
Lastly, it is worth noting that QNHS-recorded 2,500 increase in labour force in Q2 2009 is a seasonal aberration as part time employment rises in the summer months. This is going to go into negative territory in Q3-Q4 2009.

We are on track to reach 15-15.5% unemployment sometime in mid 2010. And on track to get close to 10% long-term unemployment by mid 2011. That would be a fitting tribute to the Government that raises taxes in an economy experiencing severe recession...