Updating BRIC Manufacturing PMIs - with some delay (sorry, start of the academic year):
These are quarter averages, with July-August for 2020. And wee have:
- A mad print for Brazil. In the last four months, Brazil Manufacturing PMI went from 38.3 in May to 51.6 in June, 58.2 in July and a totally incredible 64.7 in August. As PMIs are indicators of month-on-month activity changes, and not comparable year-on-year, all we know is that there is a massive boom in the sector from the lows of the COVID19 pandemic recession. But we do not know if we are close to pre-COVID19 levels or close to the pre-COVID19 trends or anywhere, specifically. Still, if 64.7 reading in August is a genuine indicator of activity, we are seeing real recovery in the economy. In fact, July and August are now two highest PMI readings months in history of the series. On a quarterly average basis, we are at 61.5 so far for 3Q 2020 which is the highest in history, with the prior historical high registered in 1Q 2010 at 56.3. Current trough-to-peak swing in Manufacturing PMI for Brazil for the COVID19 period is incredible 19.5 points.
- Russia, in contrast, continues to show signs of weaknesses in the Manufacturing sector, with 3Q 2020 PMIs so far running at 49.8 - statistically reflecting zero growth. Notionally, this marks the sixth consecutive quarter of PMIs below 50 in nominal terms and a seventh consecutive quarter at or below 50. Current trough-to-peak swing in Manufacturing PMI for China for the COVID19 period is sharp at 10.8 points, and this before we establish any recovery (over 50.0) momentum.
- China Manufacturing PMI is currently averaging 53.0 for 3Q 2020, the highest reading since 4Q 2010. China posted statistically zero growth - PMI at 50.4 in 2Q 2020, on foot of a significant, but not catastrophic, contraction in 1Q 2020 at 47.2. Current trough-to-peak swing in Manufacturing PMI for China for the COVID19 period is relatively moderate at 5.8 points.
- India Manufacturing PMI for 3Q 2020 is at 49.0, having risen from the recession trough of 35.1 in 2Q 2020, and trough-to-peak swing is at 13.9 points.
Overall, BRIC Manufacturing activity index is at 52.3 as of the first two months of 3Q 2020, up from 45.0 in 2Q 2020 and 49.1 in 1Q 2020. The trend is for a substantial improvement over time, with the trough-to-peak swing currently at 7.3 points.The index is outperforming Global Manufacturing PMI that currently sits at 51.2 for 3Q 2020, up 7.6 points on the trough in 2Q 2020.
Stay tuned for BRIC Services PMIs and Composite PMIs next.
