18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating the tables for countries with more than 100,000 recorded cases of COVID19:

• U.S. continues to lead globally in terms of deaths and new cases counts. On per-capita terms, the U.S. ranks 7th worst in the world in terms of cases per 1 million of population, 12th worst in terms of deaths per 1 million of population and 27th worst in the world in terms of deaths per 1,000 officially detected infections. The country has, by far, the most expensive (as a share of GDP) healthcare system in the world.
• In contrast, were they treated as a single entity, BRIICS+Turkey have better than average performance in terms of number of cases, number of deaths per capita and an average (statistically)  rate of deaths per 1,000 cases.
• Worldwide, 20 countries now have more than 500,000 cases and 5 countries of these have more than 50,000 deaths.
• On per capita basis, the worst performing country in the world for cases counts is Qatar, followed by Belgium and Czechia, Armenia and Israel. In terms of deaths per capita, the worst country in the world is Belgium, followed by Peru, Spain, Argentina and Brazil. 
• In deaths per 1,000 confirmed cases, the worst performing country is Mexico, followed by Ecuador, Bolivia, Egypt and Iran.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 Updating data on global COVID19 pandemic spread:

Some summary tables first;

November-to-date is an outlier month in terms of both, case numbers and deaths. While the former is in part driven by better availability of testing, the latter runs contrary to the expected outrun of improved testing: higher rates pf testing lead to earlier detection of the disease and, in theory, should lead to reduced deaths. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Daily average new deaths are running at 8.294 so far in November - a massive increase on October and the highest average for any month so far. Worse, thee geography of new cases has shifted from less-developed countries (South and Latin America, India etc) to more advanced economies (the U.S. and Europe), which should, in theory, see a reduction in daily deaths counts (due to better public health systems). This is not happening.

Table above shows dramatic jump in the rate of growth in deaths in November, compared to every prior month. It also suggests longer lags in deaths increases following cases increases, which may be due to earlier detection and younger cases demographics. This, however, is not comforting. Again, earlier detection and younger demographics should lead to slower rates of growth in deaths, not higher.

Charts for cases and deaths:

Moving averages clearly show relentless growth in the pandemic since the start of October for cases and the end of October for deaths. The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating.

17/11/20: U.S. households: Debt Hostages to the Washington

Massive stimulus deployed in Q2 2020 has lifted substantially aggregate household incomes. Meanwhile, lower interest rates have boosted debt affordability, while new demand for credit collapsed. All of which means that, at least through 2Q 2020, U.S. households enjoyed some really dramatic reduction in the burden of debt:

Income boost from Government transfers in 2Q 2020 was so large, it took household debt to income ratio down by a whooping 3 years in just one quarter, with the ratio currently at the levels last seen in the second half of 1998, moving exactly 3 years from Q3 2001 levels where they stood at the end of Q1 2020. meanwhile, actual debt levels, in US$ terms were down just $52 billion in 2Q 2020 compared to Q1 2020, a decline of only 0.26%. 

Of course, 2Q 2020 boost to incomes was a temporary measure, not related to any real economic growth and not sustainable in the longer run. A return to the pre-COVID19 levels of total debt burden relative to disposable income will shave off 1.455-1.626 percentage points off the households' disposable income net of debt servicing costs, washing out USD295-329 billion from households' budgets. Worse, following normalization of the credit markets, built up debt insolvencies delayed by the pandemic emergency measures will likely push debt to much higher levels as accumulated loans arrears get refinanced and rolled up. Assuming 5% of the loans in forbearance today, this would lead to the household income hit of USD310-346 billion. 

The twin effects of exhausted income supports and rising debt burden can see U.S. household debt burden rising to 135-136 percent of disposable income within the next 12 months.

 

All of which simply goes to show that the U.S. economy is now a complete and total hostage to monetary policy accommodation that is sustaining massive debt subsidies to the households, plus the one-off and non-sustainable income supplements.

16/11/20: Velocity of Money and the Glaciers of Complacency

Last time I looked at the velocity of money, things were going South fast: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/27520-falling-velocity-of-money.html. And considering thee data through 3Q 2020, there is little improvement across the board:

You can barely notice 3Q 2020 uptick from the pandemic lows in all three measures, thee M1, M2 and MZM. And here are differentials:

Precautionary savings motives (blue line) remain extremely elevated, while investors' willingness to trade assets (in a bull market, a sign of more active management of portfolios) stays stubbornly low. Which implies that the shift from the pandemic impact to the recovery did not do much to alter demand for money, nor to break away from the monetary policy-supported glut of liquidity available to the economy as a whole and to the financial markets specifically. 

It is all as if we have frozen, from monetary policy point of view, in a singular tidal wave. A glacier of households' unease and investment markets complacency. 

16/11/20: Retail sales, Sector employment and COVID19 recovery

Retail sales suffered a sharp shock from the demand contraction following the first phase of COVID19 pandemic. As of the end of September, based on the preliminary estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, total volume of retail sales in the U.S. has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels:

Based on cumulative retail sales over trailing 12 months period, September 2020 stood at USD 5.519 trillion, which is USD48.371 billion above 12 months trailing cumulative for January 2020, and USD121.178 billion above the same measure for September 2019.

The same cannot be said about the recovery in the retail sector jobs:

As of October 2020, total employment in the U.S. retail sector stood at 15,173,500, 498,500 down on February 2020 and 471,200 less than in October 2019. In fact, the problem with the retail sector employment has been evident since the start of this Millennium. Held down by automation and increasing sales volumes flowing through web based retailers, the overall sector sales increases did not translate into sector employment growth. Over the last 10 years through September 2020, retail sales by value rose a cumulative 37%. Over the same period of time, retail sector average hourly earnings grew 27%, or 8 percentage points less than total private economy average hourly earnings inflation. Meanwhile, in 2006, $1 in hourly earnings of retail sector employees wages supported, roughly $1,380 of retail sales. As of September 2020, this number is almost $1,534.

7/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 U.S. is now in a full-blown third wave of the pandemic both in terms of daily case counts and deaths, and the EU27 is in a full-blown second wave:

Summary statistics:

Histograms for both:

7/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is accelerating world-wide and the death toll is now rising at an alarming rate:

The chart above is the most alarming one: rates of growth in new cases and in daily deaths counts (the second derivative) are well-above their past months' averages. Death toll is rising by a third, daily, on average since the start of November. Covid-denialists have persistently argued that despite increases in the numbers of new cases, deaths were falling (they were not: August was the only month of negative growth in daily deaths). In fact, starting with September, daily deaths, on average, grew by double-digits percentage points, and the rate of growth accelerated in October by 80 percent compared to September. 

Global second wave of the pandemic is substantially more deadly (in absolute numbers) than the prior wave. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

Things are getting more complicated in the Nordics in the wake of the unfolding second wave of the pandemic:

The second wave of the pandemic has started first in the Nordics excluding Sweden, but the same wave is now also beginning to manifest itself in Sweden. Adding to the complexity of analysis, Swedish data is now being reported with significant volatility (multiple consecutive '0' observations per week), making higher frequency comparatives basically impossible.

Nonetheless, Sweden is now catching up, once again, with the rest of the Nordics in terms of new cases.  In the last 7 days, Sweden averaged 1,204 cases per day (up on 627 average daily rate of new cases in the two weeks prior). Nordics ex-Sweden averaged (adjusting to Swedish population) 3,228 daily new cases over thee last 7 days, with prior 14 days average of 2,775.

In terms of daily deaths, Sweden currently performs significantly better than the rest of the Nordics. Sweden's average daily deaths run at 0 over the last 7 days and 0.43 deaths per day average over the prior 14 days period. Nordics ex-Sweden (again adjusting to Swedish population) averaged 17 deaths per day in the last 7 days, and 10.6 deaths in thee prior two weeks period. However, this better performance by Sweden is at least in part due to the later start of the second wave of the pandemic in thee country compared to other Nordics.

Overall, for now, excess deaths count in Sweden compared to other Nordics is shrinking, currently at 2,580.

Only time will tell whether thee current second wave dynamics are going to push Sweden once again into the position of being worse-hit by the pandemic than its Nordic counterparts. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia is experiencing a second wave of the pandemic that started around September 10-12 is still gaining speed in terms of new cases and deaths counts:

This wave is both deadlier and more severe in terms of new cases than the previous one, although there appears to be less pressure on the public health system so far. Nonetheless, November data to-date shows much higher daily average new infections (subject, partially, to higher rates of testing), and higher daily deaths counts (clearly not accounted for by higher testing):

Comparatively, Russia is performing relatively ok, when set against other BRIICS and the U.S. and the EU27 experiences: 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for data through November 3:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 707.7
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 396.8
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 78 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now closing (it was 86% a week ago).
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
• Current excess gap is at +65,585. 
• Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 123,449. 
• The U.S. & the EU27 are in 2nd waves of infections. October 1st to-date, EU27 daily cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 2 days & deaths on 18 occasions

Across the board:

• EU27 second wave is savage in terms of new cases counts (more than four times the rate of the peak wave 1) and deaths counts are climbing up at a fast pace. On the current trajectory (note: this is not a formal forecast, but a point of warning), the EU27 deaths will be testing 3,000 per day counts mark within this month. 
• U.S. is in a third or a second wave of the pandemic - depending on how one counts the 'waves' - in terms of new cases, but is yet to post consistent uptick in deaths. Nonetheless, in the last 10 days, deaths counts have also ticked up. Given that new cases in the U.S. are currently running at above thee last wave peak levels, we can expect continued increases in daily deaths counts too, albeit with longer lag on account of earlier detections and younger demographics of new cases. 

Here are some really shameful stats, positioning EU27 and U.S. performance in the context of all countries with > 100,000 cases:

Out of 51 countries with >100,000 cases + EU27, 

• The U.S. is ranked 6th worst in terms of cases per capita, 10th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 24th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 8th worst in the world.
• The EU27 is ranked 20h worst in terms of cases per capita, 19th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 20th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 20th worst in the world.

Peer-comparatives:

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating tables for countries with > 100,000 cases, data through November 3 ECDC reporting:

Both, the U.S. and the EU27 are currently in the new wave of the pandemic (more on this later). That said, across three key metrics: new cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case:

• The EU27 would have ranked 17th worst case in the total group of 51 countries + EU27; the U.S. ranks 8th worst.
• The UK ranks 7th worst.
• Sweden, the 'herd immunity' darling ranks 15th worst across the board, 7th worst in deaths per 1,000 cases, and 16th worst in deaths per 1 million of population. For comparison, the Netherlands ranks 20th worst - the only other Nordic country to make it into the table of countries with > 100,000 cases. 
• Peru, followed by Belgium and Spain are the worst three countries across all metrics (combined).

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is once again re-accelerating worldwide: 

Increasing death counts above the relatively stable trend/average of the prior three months is worrying. Growth rates in new infections and new deaths in October and in the first three days of November are also out of line with past months' experience:

Summary tables:

Despite relative easing of public anxiety over the public health risks, COVID19 pandemic remains on a full-blown expansionary path and the recent dramatic - exponential - rise in new cases, whilst in part driven by improved testing, is now showing signs of lifting up daily deaths counts, with new deaths coming in at above March-September averages in October and in the first days of November.

31/10/20: Gold Coins Market is Still Hedging Residual Covid Risk

Sales of the U.S. Mint gold coins have moderated off their pandemic highs, but remain elevated by historical standards, especially controlling for higher gold prices:

Since hitting a pandemic-period high of 216,500 oz in March 2020 (the highest sales volume since April 2013), the demand has moderated through June, topped 145,000 in July and 149,000 oz in August, and has been around 91,500 through the four weeks of October. This puts October sales above the last three years' average.

Average gold weight per coin sold remains relatively elevated and is co-trending with price per oz, most likely indicating lasting FOMO effect (herding by investors). The correlation is weaker than during prior episodes of major crises and recessions, suggesting that the pandemic-period demand is probably less influenced by the herding effects than in prior crises.

Annualized data through October also confirms precautionary, but not 'flight to safety' type of demand:

As the pandemic re-accelerates, it will be interesting to see how seasonality (uplift in end-of-year sales) plays out against the pandemic-related hedging positioning of investors.

27/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Quick update to the U.S. vs EU27 charts for COVID19 pandemic:

Key stats:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 690.0
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 370.3
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 86 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now slowly closing (it was 90% a week ago).

• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +67,604. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,869. 
• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 11 occasions

Couple of summary tables:

I covered a recent study from the Columbia University on U.S. excess deaths here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/251020-covid19-us-excess-deaths-are.html. 

27/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic with rapidly accelerating daily deaths counts:

Authorities are imposing more severe restrictions on mobility (especially for older members of the public) and are trying to replace older essential workers with younger cohorts. For example, Moscow is trying to roll out substitute teachers (drafted from senior college students) as substitutes for older teaching staff in primary schools. A number of regions (as a federal structure, Russia has highly heterogenous, locally-administered systems) are now running out of emergency health facilities (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/27/were-in-hell-russias-second-wave-of-covid-19-is-catching-the-regions-off-guard-a71851), with serious questions being asked as to the apparent lack of preparedness, given the summer pandemic moderation period. 

Overall, Russia currently ranks 33rd worst in the league of 47 countries with more than 100,000 cases, with better than average (95% confidence interval) scores in the number of cases per 1 million population, deaths per 1 million of population and deaths per 1,000 of cases. Despite the commonly cited controversy over Russian reporting methodologies for COVID19 linked deaths (incidentally, Russia does not use a unique methodology for such reporting, although Russian methods for assigning causes of deaths are different from those used in the EU27), Russian rates of deaths per cases detected and rates of deaths per 1 million of population are comparable (in rankings) to Russia's case numbers. 

Nonetheless, the second wave of the pandemic is both deadlier and larger than the first wave and it remains to be seen if Russian healthcare system can cope with this.