Thursday, April 23, 2015

23/4/15: Ireland 'Crazy Jumping' Stats: Producer Prices March 2015

In the world of 'Crazy Jumping' stats, Ireland is in the league of its own. Reach no further than out to the Irish Producer Prices. In annual terms, factory prices are up 9.5% in March 2015 y/y, almost double the 5.2% rise in the year to February 2015.

What is going on? Oh, currency valuations (prices are up in euros while exports markets are priced in all sorts of stuff) plus MNCs that can freely adjust prices they charge to Irish operations. Thus, "In the year there was an increase of 11.9% in the price index for export sales …and a decrease of 3.3% in respect of the price index for home sales." Basic pharmaceuticals prices (largest contributor to y/y price change) are up 14.5% y/y, Printing and Reproduction of Recorded Media - aka ICT software etc - jumped up 19.5%, Computer, electronic and optical products (second largest contributor to y/y price change) prices up 19%.

And in m/m terms, "the most significant changes were increases in Computer, electronic and optical products (+5.2%), Basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (+4.6%) and Other food products including bread and confectionery (+2.9%), while there were decreases in Dairy products (-1.0%) and Other Manufacturing including Medical and Dental Instruments and Supplies (-0.2%)."

Now, resurgent Building and Construction industry. Based on factory gate prices things are not exactly surging yet. "All materials prices [for Building and Construction industry] increased by 1.4% in the year since March 2014. The most notable yearly changes were increases in Stone (+14.7%), Hardwood (+12.3%) and Glass (+6.4%), while there were decreases in Other Structural steel (-4.0%), Concrete blocks and bricks (-3.3%) and Ready mixed mortar and concrete (-2.6%)."

So things are booming up in MNCs - predominantly on foot of accounting… err… forex valuations side. And they are slogging up in Building & Construction, and in capital goods side (prices up 1.2% y/y). Domestic economy producers, overall, are deflating, still. 

Meanwhile, "The price of Energy products decreased by 11.3% in the year since March 2014, while Petroleum fuels decreased by 10.7%." Did you notice any of these decreases in your electricity and gas bills? No, me neither.

But all looks rather pretty hyperbolic in growth terms when one uses 'one-closed-eye-on-reality' trick:

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