Thursday, April 5, 2012

Live Register for March 2012 - additional trends

In the previous post on live Register headline figures, I suggested that March 2012 data paints a mixed picture of some changes that might be consistent with early improvements in the trends (although it is too early to tell) and the continuation of the overall high level of unemployment and Live Register supports demands.

In this post, let's take a look at couple sub-trends.

First, consider LR by age - all seasonally adjusted figures:

  • At the end of Q1 2012 there were 360,400 individuals 25 years and older on the Live Register, down from 361,900 (-1,500 or -0.4%) mom and up marginally on 360,200 at the end of Q1 2011. This represents an improvement on February 2012 when yoy there were 3,300 more LR signees age 25+. Q1 2012 average is now 1.07% below Q4 2011 average, however, Q1 2012 average is 0.74% ahead of Q1 2011 average.
  •  At the end of Q1 2012 there were 74,400 individuals age less than 25 on LR, representing a decline of 1,500 (-2.0%) on February 2012 and a drop of 8,400 on March 2011 (-10.1%). This too represents an acceleration in annual decline rate in march, compared to February when yoy decline was 8.4%. Quarter on quarter, average LR participation by under-25 year olds has fallen 4.6% and year on year it is down 9%. Much of this is, most  likely, accounted for by the younger workers' participation in various State training programmes and emigration.

Next trend to consider is for Casual and Part-time workers LR participation:
  • In March 2012, there were 87,716 part-time and casual workers on LR, up 502 (+0.6%) mom and 2,561 (+3%) yoy. This is down from the February 2012 annual growth rate of 3.7%. Quarter on quarter, March 2012 numbers are up 2.1% and year on year average Q1 2012 LR participation by this group is up 3.7%.

Live Register breakdown by nationality:

  • Number of non-Irish nationals on the Live Register fell 675 mom in March 2012 (-0.9%) and it is now down 514 (-0.7%) yoy. However, monthly results conceal the reality of return of the upward (albeit relatively weak) trend in LR participation by non-nationals since September 2011 local trough.
  • Number of Irish nationals on the Live Register is down 4,693 in March 2012 (to 355,974) relative to February and it is down 6,625 year on year (-1.8%)

As the result of the above changes, relative share of non-Irish nationals on the LR has risen for the third moth in a row, reaching 18% in march 2012. This is the highest reading since April 2009.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Where does migration as well as long-term unemployment (resulting in being unable to claim state support) fit into this type of assessment? I'm new with Irish statistical measures and may be missing an adjustment made somewhere. Please point out that counter-balance if I've missed it.

It seems to me that these types of numbers are best analyzed in context with other factors such as long term unemployment and temporary migration strategies. Any idea where I might be able to dig some of those up?