Monday, January 11, 2010

Economics 11/01/2010: Manufacturing Activity Sliding

Once again, spot on with the general trend toward renewed deterioration in Q4, industrial production posted a 9.1% decline in November 2009. Per CSO: “The seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production for Manufacturing Industries for the three month period September to November 2009 was 3.1% lower than in the preceding three month period.” Monthly change was -9.1% as well in November, for Manufacturing Industries as contrasted with 1.6% decline in October. In all industries, November decline was 8%, compared with October monthly decline of 1.4%.

The sectors contributing most to the change in November were: Computer, electronic and optical products (-36.1%) and Food products (-12.5%). The “Modern” Sector, comprising a number of high-technology and chemical sectors, showed an annual decrease in production for November 2009 of 3.7% while a decrease of 17.7% was recorded in the “Traditional” Sector. In seasonally adjusted terms, the picture was slightly less poor: Modern Sectors declined 10.5% in monthly terms, marking second consecutive monthly decrease (the index fell 5.8% back in October 2009), while Traditional sectors fell 2.2% in November, after registering an increase of 5.5% in October. The series are obviously volatile – analysis of volatility is to follow later (grading times for both UCD & TCD) – but all signs point to a renewed deterioration taking hold.

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