Thursday, April 2, 2015

2/4/15: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: March Marks Further Slowdown in Growth


Markit released Manufacturing PMI for India, so here is a full update on Manufacturing sector indicators across the BRIC economies:

  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in March from 49.6 in February, marking the second consecutive month of sub-50 readings. 3mo average through March was 48.8 against 3mo average through December 2014 at 49.3 and 3mo average through March 2014 at 50.6. The trend is down and getting worse. Brazil registered the sharpest rate of contraction in PMI of all BRIC economies.
  • Russia Manufacturing PMI also came in at disappointing 48.1, down from 49.7 in February, marking the 4th consecutive month of sub-50 readings. Russia posted the second sharpest contraction in manufacturing of all BRIC economies and the sharpest on a 3mo average basis. 3mo average through March was 48.5, down from 50.3 for the 3 months through December 2014, but up on 48.3 3mo average through March 2014.
  • China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 in March, the first reading below 50.0 after 50.7 was registered in February 2015. However, over the last 6 months, Chinese manufacturing posted 3 months of sub-50 readings and one month of 50.0 reading. 3mo average through March stood at 50.0 - basically zero growth signal, against 3mo average through December 2014 at 50.1 (again, zero growth) and 3mo average through March 2014 of 48.7.
  • India posted the only rise in PMI and the only case of manufacturing PMI above 50.0. March reading was 52.1, a gain on 51.2 in February, marking 17th consecutive month of above-50 readings. 3mo average through March was 52.1, which is poorer than 3mo average through December 2014 (52.6) but an improvement year-on-year (3mo average through March 2014 was 51.7).
Chart and table to summarise:


Overall, with exception of India, all BRIC Manufacturing PMIs are now below 50.0 and all are trending down since July 2014 on. Brazil is now the worst performing country in the group, for the second month in a row.

Data presented by Markit signals a deepening slowdown in March compared to February in the group of core emerging markets, which does not bode well for global growth outlook.

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