Thursday, March 4, 2010

Economics 04/03/2010: Another grab of taxpayers cash?

Update 1: 04/03/2010: 10:15pm


Yesterday, the Government announced a plan to reform pensions provision system in Ireland by creating a mandatory pension scheme with a limited opt-out clause. The announcement is covered here. While lacking specific details we can only ask questions and await for some answers, here are my top-level views.

Question 1: Will additional contributions required from the taxpayers yield additional cover over the already committed state scheme that supplies 35% of the average earnings in exchange for PRSI contributions?

Question 2: What will determine the return on top-up pension? While the state is quick at setting the cost to the taxpayer (4%) and employers (2%) there is absolutely no reference to the returns to be earned from the scheme. Is the rate of return fixed? Guaranteed? Market-related? Who will underwrite this return?

Question 3: Who will manage the assets? NPRF? NTMA? Private providers? Who will actually write the policy - if any policy will be written at all.

Question 4: The plan exempts those on defined benefit pensions - aka public sector workers. Thus, in effect, the plan opens up two massive problems:
  • Defined benefit pensions are the ones that are facing the largest shortfall and they are also being managed by the agent (the State) who will control our top-up pensions. How is this conflict of interest going to be resolved? Will public sector pensions hole be plugged using top-up pension funds?
  • Defined benefit pensions are contractually guaranteed, while top-up pensions are not (see below), so in effect the opt-out potentially directly exposes ordinary taxpayers to underwriting the public sector pensions through both their statutory pension (already the risk we are bearing) and through the top up. If so, the top-up element of the proposal is nothing more than a tax on ordinary income earners that can be used to cover public pensions shortfalls.
Question 5: A 4% top-up requirement for 'higher earners' (undefined level of earnings) will create a further erosion of the wage premium for higher educated and higher skilled workers in this country (on top of already punitive levels of personal income taxation). How does this square off with the Government intentions to build a Smart Economy, if Smart workers require higher wage premium?

Question 6: What are the contractual rights of the taxpayers paying top up rates with respect to the pension benefits?

A private sector pension is governed by a clear contract. This contract is fully enforceable in the court of law. State pensions (with exception of those provided to public workers) are not. If you doubt this statement - check numerous legal cases where this has been deemed to be the case.

And look no further than the change in the statutory retirement age that the Government is planning to enact. In effect, forcing retirement age 2-3 years forward means that all of us who have paid PAYE are now entitled to 2-3 years less of the benefits. If this was done by your private pension provider, you would have a legal case against a unilateral change in the terms of the contract. But because it is done by the Government and we have no written legally binding contract with the Government relating to pensions provision, the State simply can cut our benefits, while still requiring us to keep our end of the deal - continuing to pay into the PAYE pot.

So the biggest issue of all is - will the new top-up requirement be legally binding for both sides of the deal or will it remain asymmetric (and therefore subject to the risk of arbitrary changes in the terms and conditions by the Government)?


Question 7: The new pension system would re-enroll people who quit every two years
. This begs a question - will this 're-enrollment' be performed with crediting for years lapsed or not. If yes, then the risk of underpayment due to interruptions will be borne by the collective pool of funding. Which means that everyone paying into the system will be at a risk of bearing the cost of higher jobs exits and unemployment. If no, how will the recovery of underpayment take place? Simply requiring people who dropped out to repay the shortfall accumulated over two years of absence will not work, as it will impose huge burden on those with uncertain employment prospects.

Question 8: How will the system manage those in part-time employment, self-employment and those with hybrid income sources (multiple jobs, etc)?

Question 9: Since top-up clause requires private pension plan with employer contribution in excess of 4%, can the new plan be deemed anti-competitive? For example, if a self-employed person obtains no contribution from the employer, does the new pension mandate commit a person to a minimum contribution of 6%, thereby forcing them out of other private pension arrangements they might have, which may include single payment/lump sum contributions?

Question 10: If a person is forced to switch away from a smaller pension plan into the 'top up' Government plan, given that Government plan is not comparable in terms of risk of payout to a private plan, will this not in effect reduce the quality of pension that the employee will obtain? In other words, the Government scheme might result in a reduced quality of pensions for some savers.

Question 11: Will the new top-up arrangement cancel out PRSI contributions, or will it be on-top of the PRSI levies? If the former, who will fund the 35% promisory note of statutory state pensions? If the latter, this constitutes a massive increase in taxation burden in this economy.

Question 12: How will the Government reimburse those of us who might have higher pensions contributions by employers, but whose employers will now opt for a default position and drop their contribution to the effective minimum of 2%?

So far, the proposal is yielding more questions than answers. Which, of course, simply indicates that there is a good chance that the Government has not thought through the whole scheme and might be risking entering into another 'Policy-based evidence' scenario for which we, as a country, are so well known around the world.

On the net, however, given the nature of the top-up arrangement, unsecured contractual status of the proposal and the fact that the State decided to exempt its own employees from the obligation, the whole proposal looks like another tax by the Exchequer.
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