Friday, October 2, 2009

Economics 02/10/2009: IMF World Economic Outlook

IMF released its World Economic Outlook for H2 2009 last night. Here are some highlights, more to come later tonight.

Summaries of IMF latest forecasts:

Next, I created an index of overall economic activity that is GDP-weighted. This index is geared in favor of Ireland and other smaller exporting economies by magnifying the effects of GDP growth (as opposed to GNP) and the effects of the current account (reflective of higher share of trade and FDI in Irish economy) and downplaying both price inflation (with larger share of domestic inflation in Ireland imported from abroad) and unemployment (with traditionally smaller both unemployment and labour force participation in Ireland).

Rankings based on the index: Based on the above index of economic activity, ranking countries in order of declining quality of economic environment, shows the extent of our performance deterioration: if in 2007 Ireland ranked 18th from the top in the developed world, by 2010 we are expected to rank 29th or fourth from the bottom.
Peer economies comparatives:
Based on the above table, we can compute a relative impact of the crisis 2008-2010 on our competitor economies. Chart below illustrates this, showing that when compared to other economies, only Iceland is expected to show more severe contraction in economic activity than Ireland. More importantly, the gap between Irish performance during the crisis and that of an average economy in our competitor group is 1.5 Standard Deviations away from the mean.
Property markets crisis estimates: based on IMF model of duration and amplitude of property busts, table below reports the relative impacts of the global property slump in the case of Ireland, comparative to the rest of the OECD:
Stay tuned for more...
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