Wednesday, December 11, 2013

11/12/2013: Will Europe Have Any Firepower for Banks Bail Outs?


The Banking Union debate drags on and on and on and the further we travel in time into this debate, the more apparent is the pathetic nature of the undertaking, and with it, the pathetic state of leadership across Europe... Here's the latest instalment:
http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2013/12/eu-bank-bailout-fight-more-leaked-documents/

Key quotes in this latest instalment:

"Both the European Commission and the European Central Bank – along with most eurozone finance ministries – believe a “break in case of emergency” backstop needs to be in place to provide a safety net for the bank rescue fund since, even when it’s completely full, it will only have €55bn in it. Given the recent crisis experience, that might only be enough to bail out two or three mid-sized European banks."

Laugh! or Cry! or both. The entire circus is about EUR55 billion. Not enough to backstop another Ireland (based on the 2008-2010 crisis dimensions). Not enough to backstop the retail division of the Deutsche Bank alone (based on 5% loss over capital cushion). Not enough to backstop anything, really. Administration, compliance, enforcement and other bureaucratic functions associated with this backstop (and the necessary Banking Union spoking it to the ECB and the eurosystem) will be running at somewhere around 5-10 percent of the entire fund, annually. If this is a form of insurance, you might getter better quote on insuring Titanic in its current state for passenger traffic.

"In addition, the fund will take 10 years to completely fill through levees on European banks, meaning some kind of backstop needs to be in place in the interim. The “SRF Backstop” paper basically says: we need a backstop, but we’re still not sure what it should be or how it would work."

Two things. Unless euro area hopes to remain in the Great Stagnation for the next 10 years, we shall see growth in banks balancesheets. Over 10 years horizon (even if balancesheets grow at 1.5% = real GDP growth expectation for euro area + HICP target, so 3.5% nominal growth pa in balancesheets), the banking assets side (covered liabilities from the SRF perspective) will have expanded by 41 percent. In other words, to provide the same cover as today's EUR 55 billion the fund will require EUR 78 billion. Forget the idea that in its current vision SFR will only be sufficient to bailout two or three mid-sized European banks. We'll be lucky if it can bailout 1 or 2 of mid-sized European banks in 10 years time.

Monday, December 9, 2013

9/12/2013: Irish Construction Sector PMI, November


Irish Construction sector PMI (Ulster Bank & Markit) is out today for November. The numbers are good.

Overall Index is down to 58.8 in November from 59.4 in October, but the reading remains firmly above 50.0 and this markets the third consecutive month of above 50.0 readings. All readings since September are statistically significantly above 50.0.

Dynamics are good, indicating solid upward trend:

  • 12mo MA through November 2013 is at 48.0 against 44.4 for the same period in 2012
  • 6mo MA improved to 52.4 in November 2013 against 42.1 a year ago
  • 3mo MA is up at 58.0 in November 2013 against 46.9 in 3mo through August 2013.

Total Activity Index is strongly driven by upward trends in Housing Construction:
  • Housing Activity index is at 60.4 in November, which is down on massive 61.7 in October.
  • 12mo MA is at 50.4 against 43.0 for the same period in 2012
  • 6mo MA is at 55.4 against 41.7 12 months ago
  • 3mo MA is at 60.5 against 50.3 for 3mo through August.

Another major driver for the upward momentum in overall Construction PMI was Commercial Activity - running in line with Housing (chart above):

  • Commercial activity index moderated to 60.0 from 61.6 in October. Commercial and Housing Activity sub-indices have been running jointly above 50.0 for 4 months in a row; in statistically significant terms this dynamic is present for three months in a row.
  • 12mo MA for Commercial Activity index remains below 50 at 47.9, but this marks a major improvement on 42.9 for 12mo average through November 2012.
  • 6mo and 3mo MAs are outperforming y/y and period-on-period. 
Only disappointment is Civil Engineering sub-index which recorded accelerated rate of decline in November at 45.7, compared to October when the reading was 47.2. November marks second consecutive month of accelerating falls.

However, November rate of decline is much shallower than was recorded a year ago (31.1).


In general, strong news on PMI front. and This supports overall Manufacturing and Services trends (see here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/5122013-services-and-manufacturing-pmis.html)

Sunday, December 8, 2013

8/12/2013: Exiting EFSF: Check.

So it's official - today we exited EFSF http://www.efsf.europa.eu/about/operations/ireland/index.htm

As I said on twitter: this is a big first step for Ireland. There are many more to be taken in the future, long future... from EFSF's perspective - we are not free until 2042...


What is worth noting in the above table is the extent to which the EFSF has already managed to restructure our debts - maturities extensions mean that the earliest repayment date - previously falling on 04/02/2015 now falls on 01/08/2029. That is a massive restructuring of debt, which, taken together with other changes, explains why we were able to avoid an outright default to-date.

Another thing to note: from my personal perspective, there is a sizeable chance, I and many of my friends (for some that chance is even greater), will not be here to toast the day when Ireland finally repays (or rather rolls over) the full EFSF debt. That's a 'generation lost'... right there... touch it... give it a hug... its us.

8/12/2013: Is Ireland also a German (Federal) Not-a-Tax-Haven?


Irish tax system continues to percolate through international news. Here are two recent articles:

  1. ZDNet coverage of Tech sector corporate tax payments in Ireland: http://www.zdnet.com/representation-without-taxation-tech-giants-and-their-loopy-business-of-innovative-tax-avoidance-7000023539/
  2. Irish Times story on Germany official use of Irish tax system for balancing the budget: www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/german-ministers-used-irish-shell-firms-to-balance-budget-1.1613637

Which of course begs a suggestion: may be Ireland is not a corporate tax haven... afterall, Germany is not a corporation...

You can track series of articles featuring Irish tax regime in international media starting from this link: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/28102013-back-in-news-double-irish.html

8/12/2013: Forbes Claims v Reality


I wrote about Forbes' ludicrous 'rankings' relating to Ireland last week (here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/5122013-that-forbes-folly-of-global.html). But there is more to it than what I covered in the first post.

Forbes makes an assertion that Irish labour costs have declined over time. Have they? Really?

Here's CSO latest data (through Q2 2013) based on occupation and sector of employment. Not perfect, but tells us two things:

  1. Have earnings declined?
  2. If yes, have they declined in areas that are of relevance to investors?
Here are some charts:


Key occupational level of skills, traditionally associated with foreign investment in Ireland (we are not a cheap manufacturing location, after all, and make a claim that we compete on high skills) are Managers, Professionals and Associated Professionals. Chart above shows that for all sectors in the economy, average weekly wages in this occupational category rose between Q2 2010 and Q2 2013. The rate of increase ranges from 11.1% for Business & Services, to 10.9% for Industry, to 10.4% for all sectors. Public Sector posted weakest increase of 5.2%.

So, Forbes: no, there was no relevant decrease in wages that investors can be concerned with in deciding that Ireland is Numero Uno...

But, may be investors reading Forbes are into lower skilled occupational categories? Call centres and generic sales? So, take a look at the Clerical, Sales and Service Employees category next:

 
Things are a bit volatile here, but trends are all up, with exception for Public Sector. Industry - up 7.6%, Business & Services up 1.7%, all economy: up 0.4%, as Public Sector is down 9.9%.

So, Forbes: no, there was no relevant decrease in wages that investors can be concerned with in deciding that Ireland is Numero Uno...

However, of course Forbes investors might look toward Ireland as a manual workers paradise? While I have no idea why they would do so, let's just entertain this possibility:


Forbes' investors won't be looking at employing Production, Transport, Craft and Other Manual Workers in Ireland in Industry were they concerned with wages inflation. In this category, Irish weekly wages rose, on average, 1.5% in Q2 2013 compared to Q2 2010. Across Business and Services sector, wages for this category of least-skilled workers fell over the last 36 months, but by only 0.6%. Not exactly spectacular 'gains in competitiveness'. And across all economy - these were down just 0.7%. In Public Sector we registered a significant decrease of 6.6% in this employment category, but it is unlikely to be a point worthy of consideration for Forbes' investors...

So can anyone from Forbes, perhaps, explain, how on earth can these trends suggest massive competitiveness gains?

Lastly, there is the actual claim made by Forbes: "Nominal wages fell 17% between 2008 and 2011, which helped keep labor costs in check." In Q1-Q3 2013, average weekly wage in Ireland stood at EUR687.87 against same for Q1-Q3 2008 of EUR702.34. In other words, average wages have declined (based on Q1-Q3 averages) only 2.06%. In Q3 2013 average weekly earnings were 3.04% lower than in Q3 2008. Where do 17% come from, one wonders?..

Saturday, December 7, 2013

7/12/2013: WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences & zero economics


This is WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics


Let's start with some art… Brilliant students work from the Bartlett School of Architecture of UCL who won the RIBA President's Medals Student Awards with a range of projects:
http://www.dezeen.com/2013/12/04/riba-presidents-medals-student-awards-2013-winners/
More here: http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/architecture/news/bartlett-sweep-2013-riba-presidents-medals
I love the Kizhi Island piece:


The timeline itself is a work of art:



While on deezen, a fantastic feature on 'liquid light'
http://www.dezeen.com/2013/06/28/the-liquid-light-of-diego-garcia-by-viktor-westerdahl/
also via Bartlett School of Architecture graduate - Viktor Westerdahl


Innovative, imagination-driven and utterly detached from utilitarian constraints…


Edward Burtynsky's 'Water' reviewed in GuernicaMag is worth reading - fantastic photographer with a deep obsession for human impact on landscape: http://www.guernicamag.com/art/edward-burtynskys-water/
Some images of his work:

 
And his iconic...

From his Water series:

And his webpage: http://www.edwardburtynsky.com/

A quote from GuernicaMag: "Landscape, here, meaning not just the genre of art, but—more importantly—the medium of exchange through which we conceive and represent the physical environment and our relationship to it. A landscape is that which we see and the way in which we see it—a natural scene mediated by culture."

A bit too much of 'academism' there. I prefer to describe this work as forcing the landscape into the frame: powerfully transformative and, thus, powerfully narrative. The visual literally screams at us, and there is not a moment of reprieve from its potent brutality. Which makes it all amazingly beautiful... a sort of hot-cold ice...


And in the same vein of human transformation of landscape, here's AtlasObscura story on Goats of Cingino Dam: http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/goats-of-the-cingino-dam




Having mentioned ice above, here is another landscape photographer: Michael Quinn, profiled in MyModernMet blog: http://www.mymodernmet.com/profiles/blogs/michael-j-quinn-greenland-reflection



Now onto science: given the beauty of surreal Earth-scapes, time to move to astronomy and get us some Saturn-scapes
http://www.theguardian.com/science/video/2013/dec/05/saturn-north-pole-hexagon-jet-stream-nasa-video?CMP=twt_gu


Full story via NASA, absent annoying commercials: http://www.nasa.gov/jpl/cassini/saturn-north-pole-hexagon-20131204i.html#.UqOKMGRdVBw


What beats what: books vs films… I had a nice discussion with a friend recently about two films based on one same book… the merits of Stanisław Lem's original Solaris (the book) are indisputable. The merits of Tarkovsky's interpretation of Solaris (the movie) are of their own accord… and since no one remembers the first Solaris (the movie) by Boris Nirenburg, the debate was really about Steven Soderbergh's third version (the movie)… I am not a fan… my friend is… we had great breakfast chat about it…

Alas, in real life, merits of movies over books (unlike in the case of Tarkovsky's sheer genius) are dubious. And there is 'scientific' proof to this conjecture: http://www.shortlist.com/entertainment/books-vs-films-the-infographic


So WLASze advice for the weekend - switch off that TV and grab a book…

And don't forget to smile, while reading… or reading for the sake of smiling… here's a candidate:
"‘Beauty is in the eye of the beer holder’: People who think they are drunk also think they are attractive" http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2044-8295.2012.02114.x/abstract
That's right: we fancy ourselves as being hot, when we are drunk… which begs a question: what do we think about our beauty quotient when we are so drunk, we no longer believe we are drunk?..


Enjoy WLASze sensibly...

7/12/2013: Global Manufacturing PMIs: Summary for October-November


In previous posts I covered PMIs for Ireland for both services and manufacturing: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/5122013-services-and-manufacturing-pmis.html Also, detailed PMIs coverage is linked in the above.

Here is a neat summary of global Manufacturing PMIs via Markit:



Thursday, December 5, 2013

5/12/2013: Services and Manufacturing PMIs for Ireland: November 2013


Yesterday, Markit and Investec released the second set of Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for Ireland covering Services sector. As usual, here is the analysis of combined Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

Detailed analysis of Manufacturing PMIs was covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/2122013-manufacturing-pmi-for-ireland.html. Also, note, I covered actual services activity index (latest data through October) here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/5122013-irish-services-index-october.html

Manufacturing PMIs in November 2013:
- Slipped to 52.4 (still in expansionary territory) from 54.9 in September.
- 3mo Average through August 2013 was 52.1 against 3mo average through November 2013 at 53.3.
- 6mo average through November 2013 is up 4.6% on previous.

Services PMIs in November 2013:
- Slipped to 57.1 from 60.1 in October.
- 3mo average for the period through August 2013 was at 55.4 and 3mo average through November is at 58.0
- 6mo average is up 6.6% on previous.

Both, Manufacturing and Services PMIs are now above 50 for 6 consecutive months. In statical terms, the two PMIs are above 50.0 for 6 months for Services and 3 months for Manufacturing.



Overall, the picture is consistent with upward sub-trend over 3 months for both series.

However, changes in 3mo averages warrant caution on sustainability:



Joint evolution of the series y/y is still encouraging:


And 24-months rolling correlation between series is rising once again - currently at 0.340, the highest since December 2011 when both series were in sub-50 territory.

So net is that the PMIs are still strong, trend is still upward and the short-run uplift continues. Big question is whether this is going to translate into real activity on the ground or mark another period of booming PMIs and stagnant economy. Time will tell...


5/12/2013: Irish Services Index, October 2013

So Services PMIs are booming… they are positively booming…


…while in the real world, per CSO:

"The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index decreased by 1.4 % in October 2013 when compared with September 2013 and there was an annual decrease of 1.2%."

M/m on September 2012:

  • Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+1.6%) 
  • Wholesale and Retail Trade (+0.8%) 
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-6.0%), 
  • Other Services Activities (-3.5%), 
  • Transportation and Storage (-2.9%), 
  • Information and Communication (-2.5%) and 
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (-0.3%) 

On an annual basis to October 2012:

  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (+15.4%) 
  • Information and Communication (+0.9%) 
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-14.3%), 
  • Other Service Activities (-7.0%), 
  • Transportation and Storage (-3.0%), 
  • Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-2.0%) and 
  • Wholesale and Retail Trade (-0.8%)  

Oh, and do notice the 'Smart economy' bits... the Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities down -6.0% m/m and 14.3% y/y. And the area of growth in employment known as Accommodation and Food Service Activities down -2.0% y/y... this data is bizarre and will require confirmation once we have full quarter results to make any sense of... but one thing is clear: Irish Services PMI is just not that good at measuring anything that registers as Services sector in Ireland.

5/12/2013: That Forbes Folly of Global Rankings...

So Forbes Magazine ranked Ireland 1st in the world as location for doing business (http://www.forbes.com/best-countries-for-business/list/#page:1_sort:0_direction:asc_search:). This is a bit of confidence builder for us as a nation looking out at the world, and a comical relief for everyone involved across the board.

Forbes does not release actual data, models and/or full methodologies, but their rationale can be glimpsed from here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/12/04/ireland-heads-forbes-list-of-the-best-countries-for-business/

Basically, Forbes repackages other sources data and analysis to produce its own rankings.

What do these original (and other, occasionally more reputable) sources tell us about Ireland's position in global league tables?

World Bank Doing Business (2014) report ranks Ireland as follows (http://www.doingbusiness.org/Custom-Query/ireland and http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/~/media/giawb/doing%20business/documents/profiles/country/IRL.pdf?ver=2)

  • Overall Rank = 15th, unchanged on 2013 report.
  • Starting a Business: 12th in 2014, a deterioration on 2013 rank of 9th.
  • Dealing with Construction Permits: 115th, a deterioration on 2013 rank of 108th.
  • Getting Electricity: 100th, an improvement on 2013 rank of 101st.
  • Registering Property: 57th, a deterioration on 2013 rank of 51st.
  • Getting Credit (do not laugh): 13th, a deterioration on 2013 rank of 11th. Note: WB references here strength of legal rights, depth of credit information, public registry coverage and private bureau coverage, so these rankings are not reflective of whether the banks actually provide credit or whether the country has a banking system to speak of.
  • Protecting Investors: 6th, same as in 2013. Private pensions are not factored in, so expropriation / bail-in of pensions funds is not reflected.
  • Paying Taxes: 6th, unchanged on 2013. Note: these refer solely to corporate and labour taxes by employers, so our income tax 'competitiveness' is not reflected here, nor are rates and indirect taxes are factored in.
  • Trading Across Borders: 20th, same as in 2013. These relate to business transactions only, and do not reflect on-line trading & shipping to consumers.
  • Enforcing Contracts: ranked 62nd, same as in 2013.
  • Resolving Insolvency: ranked 8th in 2014, improvement on rank of 9th in 2013. This references solely business insolvency, neglecting to reflect the connection between personal insolvency (dysfunctional and outdated, even post-reforms) and business insolvency, and failing to reflect archaic professional fitness restrictions in the case of insolvency.

Summary: World Bank DB 2014 is nowhere near identifying Ireland as top country in the world for doing business. By DB rankings we are not in top-10 worldwide.


World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes a series of rankings for countries in terms of various aspects of doing business. Top of the line is The Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2013-2014

WEF's GCR 2013-2014 rankings for Ireland are:

  • Overall rank = 28th in 2013-2014, which reflects deterioration in our position from 27th in 2012-2013 report.
  • We rank 33rd in Basic Requirements for competitiveness;
  • The above include: Institutions (rank 16), Infrastructure (26), Macroeconomic Environment (134) and Health and Primary Education (6)
  • We rank 24th in Efficiency Enhancers; 
  • The above include: Higher Education & Training (rank 18), Goods Market efficiency (11), Labor Market Efficiency (16), Financial Market Development (85), Technological Readiness (13) and Market Size (57).
  • We rank 21st in Innovation and Sophistication Factors
  • The above include: Business sophistication (rank 18) and Innovation (20)

Full report is linked here: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2013-14.pdf

Snapshot on Ireland from the above: "Ireland is ranked 28th this year with a relatively stable performance. The country continues to benefit from its excellent health and primary education system (6th) and strong higher education and training (18th), along with its well-functioning goods and labor markets, ranked 11th and 16th, respectively. These attributes have fostered a sophisticated and innovative business culture (ranked 18th for business sophistication and 20th for innovation), buttressed by excellent technological adoption in the country (13th). Yet the country’s macroeconomic environment continues to raise significant concern (134th), showing little improvement since last year. Of related and continuing concern is also Ireland’s financial market (85th), although this seems to be tentatively recovering since the trauma faced in recent years, and confidence is slowly being restored."

Summary: by WEF GCR we are not in top-10.


WEF also publishes The Global Enabling Trade Report (latest is for 2012). Here are Ireland's ranks in that assessment (see Table 1 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GETR/2012/GlobalEnablingTrade_Report.pdf):

  • Overall rank of 22 in 2012, down from 21 in 2010.
  • Market Access sun-index rank: 67th in 2012;
  • Border Administration sub-index rank 10th in 2012;
  • Transport and communications infrastructure sub-index rank 29th;
  • Business environment sub-index rank 25th

Summary: by WEF GETR we are not in top-10.


WEF publishes The Global Information Technology Report (GITR), here are ranks for 2013 for Ireland:

  • Networked Readiness Index rank of 27th, deterioration from 25th place in 2012.
  • Environment sub-index rank 15th in 2013, composed of Political and regulatory environment (rank 16th) and Business & Innovation environment (rank 24th).
  • Readiness sub-index rank 16th in 2013, composed of Infrastructure and digital content (rank 16th), Affordability (rank 61st) and Skills (rank 12th).
  • Usage sub-index rank 28th, composed of Individual Usage (rank 21st), Business Usage (rank 22nd) and Government Usage (rank 43rd).
  • Impact sub-index rank 33rd, composed of Economic Impacts (rank 18th) and Social Impacts (rank 56th).

You can see the detailed results here: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GITR_Report_2013.pdf

Summary: by WEF GITR we are not in top-10.


Forbes survey cites WSJ/Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom as another source. This is linked here: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/ireland

WSJ/H 2013 Index of Economic Freedom ranks Ireland as 11th (not in top-10) and the index shows deterioration year/year in all sub-indices save one: Monetary Freedom (something that Ireland has no control over). There is a handy chart on the right on the linked page to show that Irish scores have declined in every year from 2009 through 2013.

But WSJ/H index is not the state-of-the-art index measuring economic freedom.

Instead, much stronger, methodologically and data-wise is the Economic Freedom of the World index published by Fraser Institute. Here's the link: http://www.freetheworld.com/release.html

Per EFN 2013,

  • Ireland's overall rank is 15th in the world, which on a comparable basis represents the worst year since 1990. In 2012 report (2010 data) we were ranked 14th.

Summary: no, per Economic Freedom rankings we are not in top-10.


And so on…

I recently wrote in the Sunday Times that Ireland ranks 7th in the OECD in terms of start-ups actually being registered in the country. And that this data might be skewed by the fact that some start-ups registered here during the crisis period are really re-launches of businesses shut down due to pressures of the costs of 'upward-only' rent contracts. Other start-ups are various tax shells created by the MNCs and IFSC etc.

There are many reasons to treat all of the above rankings with a grain of salt. But the key point is: we are a good location for doing business and we are a good destination for FDI. But we are not top 1, nor even top 5. Which means that instead of glowing the bizarre lights of Forbes-like PR, we should be getting down to the painful and dirty business of real reforms.


PS: As Jamie Smyth of FT pointed out, the first time Forbes had Ireland as Number 1 country in its rankings was in 2007 - the same year when Oliver Wyman had Anglo Irish Bank as its World's Best Bank. I must also add, that whilst Forbes today says that Ireland is number 1 country because of lower labor costs and business costs, plus excellent monetary environment, back in 2007 we had sky-high labor costs and business costs, and rotten monetary and fiscal environments. So, apparently, Forbes' 'methodology' delivers identical outcomes on foot of diametrically contradictory data... hmm... 

5/12/2013: Entrepreneurship Culture and Policies in Ireland: Sunday Times, December 1


This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from December 1, 2013.


According to Shutterfly CEO and veteran entrepreneur, Jeff Housenbold, “Entrepreneurship is a state of mind”.

While measuring the extent and quality of entrepreneurship in any economy is a tricky task, Ireland is an economy with two conflicting states of mind when it comes to start-ups. On the one hand, we have the official story of an entrepreneurship-rich nation. On the other hand, there is the hard data painting a more complex picture.

The latest Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Report, published earlier this year, ranks Ireland 14th out of 22 EU states surveyed in terms of the opportunities open to the entrepreneurs. We ranked at the bottom of the EU in the share of population with entrepreneurial intentions and 17th in terms of our population perception of entrepreneurship as a viable career option. In contrast, Ireland ranks second highest in the EU in terms of media attention given to the start-ups and in terms of the positive public image of entrepreneurship.

To put it simply, the Monitor data reveals the vast chasm between the media and political cultures promoting Ireland as an entrepreneurship haven, and the realities of running and growing a real start-up venture here.

This chasm was back in the spotlight over the last two weeks.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal published the results of a study that put Ireland in the first place in Europe in terms of venture capital raised in the tech sector over the period from Q1 2003 through Q3 2013. All in, Ireland-based tech start-ups and SMEs raised some USD278.73 per capita on average. This compared to the USD68.39 raised across the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) group of 32 states. Impressive as the number for Ireland was, it still falls short of the US figure of USD660.41 and Israel’s USD1,092.52.

Much of Irish media reported the results as being indicative of Ireland’s high success in entrepreneurship. Alas, the study simply does not support such a conclusion for three reasons. Firstly, the data covers only Venture Capital funding extended to tech sector firms. As the result, it excludes the vast majority of start-ups in the economy that are either operating outside the tech sector, or raising funding through channels other than VCs, or both. Currently, VCs-funded companies in Ireland employ around 9,000 people. This a drop in a bucket, given that there are 84,700 self-employed people with paid employees (just one group of entrepreneurs) in the country. The study also covers deals involving already established firms. Lastly, the study suggests that the banking crisis, resulting in the complete drying up of new lending, could have contributed to increased demand for VC funds.

No one in the mainstream media noticed that less than two months ago, in its submission for Budget 2014, Irish Venture Capital Association (IVCA) said that “the shortage of entrepreneurs [in Ireland] has reached crisis levels”. Per IVCA, in 2011 only “8.5 percent of people in Ireland aspired to be an entrepreneur, down from a high of 12.5 percent in 2005.” The EU average in 2011 was 15.3 percent.

And no one bothered to cross check the results of the Wall Street Journal study with actual data on new enterprise creation in Ireland. According to the latest data from the World Bank, Ireland ranks seventh in the EFTA in the scope of entrepreneurship in overall economy. World Bank groups Ireland alongside with Russia, Romania, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Lithuania in terms of the rates of new enterprise formation.

Another piece of evidence on the gap between realities and perceptions of Irish entrepreneurship came from the CSO. Data released this week showed significant increase in employment across the employees and the self-employed. While the number of employees in Q3 2013 was up 27,300 over the year, the number of self-employed persons increased by 30,100. Traditionally, self-employment is the first step en route to entrepreneurship. The numbers of self-employed with paid employees in Q3 2013 was below that recorded in Q3 2011. This and the sectoral decomposition of the jobs creation suggests that the new employment is not being linked to entrepreneurship.


All of this suggests that we have significant road to travel before Ireland becomes a powerhouse of entrepreneurship. The good news is – there are plenty of reforms that can help us on the way.

Last week, the US-based Kauffman Foundation, the largest research centre in the world for studies of entrepreneurship, published the results of its annual Global Entrepreneurship Week survey. The study reveals the snapshot of the state of play in entrepreneurship and start-ups formation across 113 nations and 2,330 current entrepreneurs. Amongst the handful of nations that did not participate was the entrepreneurial haven of Ireland.
Nonetheless, coupled with other sources of data, the Kauffman study offers us some good insights into the role of policy and regulatory environments in supporting entrepreneurship. Many of these insights overlap with what we observe in Ireland.

One of the keys to creating an environment supportive of entrepreneurship is to incentivise equity-based investment. Instead, we have an environment that favours debt. The problem with over-reliance on debt to finance corporate investment is that it has been shown worldwide to stymie the rate of growth in firms. It also lowers the speed of transition from family ownership to professional management.

Ireland lags behind core competitors in terms of banking sector culture when it comes to funding entrepreneurs. This is a function of two factors: low lending capacity in the system that is currently undergoing deleveraging of bad loans, and the long-term historical legacy of lending against physical collateral. We can do something about both, if we get creative. A gradual improvement in lending capacity by the banks can be achieved by reducing risk profile of SME loans. For example, a co-insurance scheme for viable new and existing loans using Enterprise Ireland funds can work to free some of the better quality business loans for securitisation. Co-insured loans can have an equity conversion component for added security. Such enhancements of better loans can help start the process where the banks lend against market and product potential of the specific SMEs instead of lending against physical collateral.

Another area that is commonly identified as a strong support for entrepreneurship is cost of and access to advisory services, starting with accounting and legal services and extending into technological advice and strategy. Ireland has achieved some improvements in the accounting costs area, but is lagging in terms of legal costs competitiveness. Critically, however, there are too few private advice networks available to would-be entrepreneurs. And there are too many state-run ones, often with limited expertise and excessively costly bureaucracy.

One recent OECD report clearly states that Irish system of innovation and entrepreneurship supports is Byzantine – spanning over 170 budget lines and 11 major agencies relating to scientific innovation alone.

We need a more active system of business development and incubation centres not only for start-ups in strategic sectors, such as ICT, bio, and food, but also in domestically-trading ones. Such centres can co-locate with major MNCs and / or be a part of broader business networks. However, the key point is resourcing them. Consolidating and re-configuring currently operating systems of local enterprise boards, FAS, and numerous other quangos crowding this space can help.

Tax systems need to be reformed to support not only creation of business, but transition into entrepreneurship. Currently, transition to entrepreneurship is only made more onerous by the absurd system of USC and PRSI taxation. To do better we need to increase VAT applicability threshold to EUR80,000-100,000 of earnings for self-employed, and dramatically reduce USC and PRSI on self-employed and sole traders.
The problem of tax disincentives for knowledge and skills-intensive start-ups is solely down to ridiculously high upper marginal tax rate on income. Per IVCA Budget 2014 submission: “The effect of [high marginal tax rates] is that Ireland is becoming a “development ghetto” with high growth start-ups doing development here but building other functions e.g. sales and marketing elsewhere.”

An income tax incentive in the form of applying only the lower marginal tax rate on earnings generated in the first three years of self-employment can rectify this problem. It will also align taxation treatment of corporate entities with that of the sole traders.


Beyond this, employees share ownership taxation needs to be revised. In fact, we can be even more aggressive here by setting a CGT exemption or a reduced rate for all companies that facilitate creation of new enterprises. This will send a strong message to foreign investors that cooperative entrepreneurship with indigenous start-ups is encouraged here. Given that many Ireland-based MNCs are actively developing partnerships involving start-ups around the world, an aggressive tax policy stance in this area can even act as an added incentive for MNCs to invest more in Ireland.
In short, there is plenty of room for improvement and innovation in terms of national policies on entrepreneurship. This should be treated as a major opportunity for Ireland, a chance expand and strengthen our indigenous enterprise formation. If entrepreneurship is really a state of mind, policy and support institutions to foster entrepreneurial culture are a matter of will. Having the former without the latter is simply not enough.




Box-out:

A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute examined the distribution of economic costs and benefits arising from the set of unprecedented monetary policies in the advanced economies. The study found that from 2007 to 2012, quantitative easing measures deployed in the euro area, the UK, and the US yielded a net benefited of USD1.6 trillion to the Government sector. These benefits were generated through reduced debt-service costs and increased profits remitted from central banks. Even euro area peripheral states’ governments have gained from these measures by facing lower costs of funding their crisis responses and by channeling funds from the banks to the Exchequer via Central Banks. At the same time, larger non-financial corporations gained some USD710 billion due to lower interest rates on debt. The only sector of the economy that was an unambiguous loser in this game of monetary policy chairs were the households. Households in the US, the UK and the euro area lost USD630 billion in net interest income. The costs were mostly concentrated amongst older households that tend to hold more interest-bearing assets. The study excluded the adverse effects on households that arise from increased taxation, reduced public services and benefits, and from higher bank loans margins.

5/12/2013: Irish Education: In Need of Serious Reforms


This is an unedited version of my column in October-November issue of the Village Magazine.


Over the last two decades, Irish economic growth has been primarily driven by a series of financial and investment bubbles. Each one was fuelled by the ad hoc nature of our policymakers’ responses to shifts in global economic trends and their penchant for fetishizing foreign policies fads.

In the mid-1990s, on foot of the US-led dot.com industry explosion, Ireland became the focal point of the investment bubble that saw the state policies and funds inflating the already out-of-touch valuations of the companies. Promising to plug our economy into the Internet of Things, entities from Baltimore Technologies to MediaLab Europe, and everyone in-between, were hovering public and private funds in a race to leapfrog this sleepy island into the 21st century.

In the 2001, at the onset of dot.com hangover, government investment became the new rage. Social Partners climbed over each other to get funding for awe-inspiring schemes usually described as Global Centres for Excellence. This bubble too was based on fads that came to Ireland from abroad, namely from Brussels. To continue fund our fetishes for spending cash we built bungalows at an ever-increasing pace. From 2001 on, Irish economy became an economy built on breezeblocks.

With the bust and the ensuing Great Recession, one could have hoped for a mature review of the policies past and a shift away from our dreamt up grandiose plans. Yet, to-date, the entire response of the two successive Governments to the bust was to feed our hopium addiction. Budget 2009 announcements made amidst the ongoing implosion of the domestic economy promoted aggressively the concept of the Knowledge Economy as our salvation. Truth be told, the Innovation Island is a Potemkin Village.


To see this, one needs to look no further than at our ability to create the base on which a knowledge-intensive economy is built: the human capital.

In my recent speech at TEDx Dublin, I offered a systemic template for assessing any economy’s human capital potential. That system is called C.A.R.E. as it assesses how well a country can Create, Attract, Retain and Enable its workforce’s technical and social skills, talents, creativity, capacity to innovate, engage in entrepreneurship, willingness and ability to take risks. In the nutshell C.A.R.E. is about systems that should put human beings and their abilities at the centre of our society and economy.

Across the entire spectrum of C.A.R.E. systems, education plays a pivotal role. And it is exactly here that many of our policy gaps become painfully apparent.

Firstly, our education system does not enable seamlessly continuous and high quality life-long cycle of learning and training. Secondly, our education system is incapable of sustaining development of such vital aspects of human capital as creativity, ability to manage risks, and engage in ongoing innovation across various domains of knowledge and skills. Thirdly, our education system is inherently elitist. This prevents it from ever becoming a truly functional creator and enabler of human capital economy. With elitism comes the death of innovation and creativity. Fourthly, our education system is riddled with inefficiencies, protectionism and skewed incentives, which lead to sub-standard educational and research outcomes.


Let’s take some of these claims in detail, omitting many considerations for the lack of space.

Since the Finance Act 2004, Irish governments have been working on expanding indigenous R&D activities. Over the last ten years, billions of euros were poured into the tax credits and investment supports. Billions more went to fund higher education institutions’ efforts to sustain research and innovation.

While some third level institutions – namely the top four or five universities – have produced tangible results in driving research output up, the rest remained far behind. Even tope universities have shown weak performance.

The 2013 Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) lists only three universities for Ireland, with best performer, TCD ranked in 201-300th place in the world. UCD and UCC rank in 301-400th places. On that, Ireland’s presence in top 500 universities as ranked by ARWU runs dry.

QS rankings list eight Irish universities in top 600 in the world, with TCD ranked the highest in 61st place. Second-best, UCD ranks 139th. Only six Irish universities make it into world’s top 300. Back in 2009, we had two universities in top 100, and seven in top 300.

Absurd centralization of education and research policies, coupled with budgetary pressures, centralized and politicized research and teaching funding allocations have accelerate the rate of brain drain from top Irish academic institutions in recent years. This, in part, is the driver for poor ranking performance over the recent years. However, even in 2005-2007, with cash abundant, Irish universities performance was far from stellar.

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Meanwhile, across the rest of the higher education sector, both teaching and research remained stuck somewhere in the antediluvian age.

Instead of development of modern, research-capable and skills-based adjunct and clinical faculties, majority of our degrees programmes continue to operate on the basis of full-time faculty teaching out of a textbook and into a pre-set, standardized exam. Furthermore, programmes are often staffed with faculty members who are neither research active, nor have any appreciable experience in applied work relating to their teaching.

While top universities around the world are aggressively moving to new teaching platforms and broadening their programmes by erasing the boundaries between various degrees, in Ireland we still treat a slide projector as a technological enabler. Web-based apps, audio-visual tools, data visualisation and other core tech supports are virtually unheard of in even top-ranked Irish universities.

In many university classrooms, students are more technologically enabled than their lecturers.

Absent deployment of modern strategies and technologies, Ireland embraced the three-year degree system. If anything, lack of proper progression in developing teaching skills and tools should have led to a lengthening of the degree programme to maintain fixed quality of the graduates. Instead we opted to trade down the learning curve in pursuit of higher put-through numbers.

All of this stands contrasted by the fact that in our flagship universities there are some individual teaching and research programmes which operate at a world-class level. Irish academia, it appears, can do excellence, just not across the whole system.


On the research side, things are not stacking up in favour of our education being the enabler of Knowledge Ireland either. New Morning IP, the intellectual capital consultancy firm, publishes regular data on patenting activity by indigenous Irish companies, foreign inventors and Irish academic institutions.

Over the last 12 months, 2,580 patents were filed in Ireland by all types of academic institutions and private sector firms. Irish academic institutions accounted for only 9.1% of these filings. Irish private sector firms are considered to be relative underperformers in terms of R&D output compared to their counterparts across the OECD. Yet, of all patent filings, these firms account for almost four times more patents than all Ireland-based academic institutions taken together.

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Not surprisingly, the European Patent Office data for 2012 put Ireland in 26th place in terms of total number of patent applications and in per-capita indigenous innovation terms, right between such powerhouses of the ‘knowledge economy’ like New Zealand and Cyprus.

The above data correlates with the poor performance by the country academic institutions in attracting private sector research funding. In August, a study by the Times Higher Education, ranked Ireland at the bottom of global league table in terms of private sector funding per academic researcher. Lower rankings for Ireland can be in part explained by poor innovation uptake by many domestic enterprises. However, these rankings also show that our system of higher education is inefficient in producing market-relevant research. Given the importance of such research to teaching and training future cohorts of human capital-rich workers, this is not a good thing.


Irish system of higher education requires serious and immediate reforms.

At the top, we need more flexible, more responsive public policy formation capable of supporting knowledge-intensive, skills-rich and rapidly evolving education. Fields of research and teaching, such as biotech, stem cells research, content-based ICT, remote medicine, human interface technology, customizable design and development technologies and so on all require a mix of skills we currently struggle to provide. Outside these, the world of business and the overall socio-economic make up is changing rapidly. In previous decades, generic management degrees offered a good starting point for on-the-job-learning. Today we need both specialist knowledge and general human capital as the basis for entering management areas of work. In the past, specialism was the differentiator into growth areas in the economy. Today, encyclopedism and ability to cross boundaries of defined degrees is increasingly a valued skill.

Policy level changes require introducing accountability and direct incentives into education system. Introduction of university-set fees are the starting point for this. Yet, even more institutional autonomy will be required to move to a system of higher education where both success and failure are reflected in actual outcomes. Successful institutions should be incentivised to thrive. Poorly functioning ones should be forced to shut down or be acquired by successful ones. Public funding should follow quality of teaching and research, not political considerations of which constituency is next in line for grants.

We must end political remit over the system of academic research and higher education. The best way to do so is by allowing more competition, imposing tighter quality controls and allowing institutions more freedom to price their offers reflective of both demand for and supply of quality.