25/6/2013: IMHO Open Letter to Minister Noonan

Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation have published an open letter delivered to Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan, TD concerning the revised Code of Conduct. Here is the link to the letter:
https://www.mortgageholders.ie/media/130624-letter-to-minister-noonan.pdf

This comes on foot of our earlier submission to the consultative process on the same, available here:
https://www.mortgageholders.ie/media/130409-IMHO-submission-letter.pdf



Disclosure: I am a director and one of five founders of the organisation.

25/6/2013: Planning Permissions in Ireland: Q1 2013

The latest data on Planning Permissions was released by the CSO under a rather cheerful headline: "Dwelling units approved up 24.7% in Q1 2013" which prompted me to start writing a positive note. However, having updated the database, I could not believe my eyes. Not until the third bullet point in the release do you get the sense as to what is really going on in the sector - the fact confirmed by looking at CSO data, rather than reading the CSO release which focuses the top points of analysis on positive side of select sub-components of the overall sector performance. So here are the facts, as conveyed to us by the data itself.

In Q1 2013, total number of planning permissions granted in Ireland for all types of construction stood at 3,275, which is 1.35% down on Q4 2012. This marks de-acceleration of seasonally-driven 17.96% q/q decline recorded in Q4 2012. However, on an annual basis, allowing for some seasonality controls, overall number of planning permissions granted in Q1 2013 was down 2.76%, which contrasts against an annual increase recorded in Q4 2012 of 1.13%.

In summary, things are not going well at all. Q1 2013 marks an absolute historic low for any quarter since Q1 1975! That's right: we hit an absolute historic low in 37 years and CSO release says things are 'up' by focusing on sub-series before it reports in the text the actual aggregates.

In charts below, I marked current sub-period (since Q1 2010) low against historic low before the current crisis. Take a look.

Note: in Q1 2013,

• Total number of planning permissions hit a historic low (as mentioned above)
• Total number of permissions for dwellings stood at 862, the second lowest after the historic low of 832 hit in Q4 2012.
• Total number of permissions for 'other new construction ex-dwellings' stood at 785, which is above the historic low of 636, but still marks a decline q/q.
• Number of permissions for extensions hit a historic low.
• Number of Alterations, conversions, renovations etc hit a historic low. 

Again, I find little to cheer in the above...

25/6/2013: What the hell is going on in the markets?

Two charts from Pictet neatly illustrate the ongoing bonds markets correction:

My two cents on what's going on in the markets today:


Wednesday opening last week at the cusp of FOMC statements, US 10 years were  yielding ca 2.15%. and 4 trading days later, these were at 2.61% or 41 bps up. 30 years are up from the nadir of 2.83% on may 2 to 3.56% currently.

And what about the other QE-infused or enthused market? In just over 3 weeks, FTSE 100 is down 846 points, from 6,875 on 22 May.

Equities and bonds are moving same way? Why?

Because of three factors:
1) When bonds go down, with them goes down capital. Mandated investment vehicles and banks take a bit of a shower.
2) When US or other advanced economies bonds take a shower, Emerging Markets take a bath because of liquidity pull out to cover leveraged losses elsewhere.
3) When EMs and bonds tank, capital-backed leverage falls, so liquidity falls in the advanced markets too, dragging down all risk assets.

These are the tripartite consequences of a liquidity trap, whereby intermediated short-term funding underpins investment activities. Put differently, when humans have less cash (real economy slow recovery, coupled with tax and financial repression), while banks and other institutions have more cash (including, for the latter, via access to banks leverage against Central Banks funding), markets become correlated, even where hedges existed before, correlations turn positive. Where there is contrasting access to the same asset via both financial paper and physical or real assets (e.g. gold vs gold coins), the two diverge, with financialised asset moving in synch with other financial assets, while real/physical asset moving in the opposite direction.

Thus, Brazil's 30-year bonds (dollar-denominated) are down now more than 25% in recent weeks, and instead of flowing into safe havens or rather 'safer hells', the cash is being tucked away into reduced leverage, leading to the US bonds compression down and UK gilts erasing all gains made since October 2011 (when QE2 kicked in).

The only thing that behaves predictably so far is VIX, which has gone from low-flat around 13.6-14.0 between March 24th and May 24th to over 20 average since June 20th through today. Short term VXX index is up from 18.03 on May 17th to 22.81 today.

Not quite panic, but pressure… and pressure is a trigger. And FOMC, and the rest of the Impossible Monetary Dilemma, are triggers too. The point is, given the recent drama in bond markets and equities and EMs, triggers are dangerous in trigger-happy times. When you have lots of capital tied up in 'safe assets' and lots of leverage tied up on top of that capital, pulling the rug from underneath capital quality leads to accelerating cascades across the board.

This is bad news for strategies over the short-term, as traditional allocations based on previously stable relations between asset classes are broken down. Gold co-moves with equities and bonds and currencies. The good news: once financialisation of the long positions is unwound, leverage is reduced and repricing of 'bubble'-like assets (aka financialised assets as opposed to real assets) is finished, the stable relations will return. In the long run, we all are… well, in the long run.

24/6/2013: The Great (Credit) Wall of China

China is now in the anteroom of the 'This Time is Different' sauna... hot seat awaiting:
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/06/21/say_hello_to_chinas_brewing_financial_crisis

Keep in mind, in China total credit increased from USD9 trillion in 2008 to USD23 trillion now. Credit to GDP ratio went up ca 95% and now stands at 221% of GDP. In the US, in 2002-2007 period, credit/GDP ratio grew by 40 percentage points. And we have no real idea just how deep the real rabbit hole goes: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21578668-growth-wealth-management-products-reflects-deeper-financial-distortions

Here's the contagion trigger: once China gets seated on the hot bench in the TTisD sauna, Chinese purchases of US and euro area bonds will evaporate. With this, yields will be going up even if current QE is retained by the Fed. And what the cost? BIS estimated last 1 trillion. And with yields rising across the board, 15-35 percent of GDP can go up in smoke in France, Italy, the UK and Japan.

Meanwhile, the euro area banks are sitting on a massive pile of dodgy assets (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/1862013-size-of-eurotanics-bad-assets.html) backed by funding secured against... right... the aforementioned government bonds.

In this blog parlance, the Impossible Monetary Dilemma will then hit the Great Wall of China. And there are no airbags...

24/6/2013: Anglo 2008 Annual Report is out. Call your broker, presto!

All going swimmingly... nothing to look at here... move on folks...

http://www.ibrc.ie/About_us/Financial_information/Archived_reports/Annual_Report_2008.pdf
H/T to @KarlWhelan

Oh, yes, do fill your boots with them shares...

A pearl:
"Following the introduction of the Government guarantee on 30 September 2008 the Bank experienced growth in retail deposits and access to other funding markets gradually improved. However, the reputational damage to the Bank resulting from a number of recent disclosures together with  adverse ratings actions have significantly weakened the Bank’s competitive funding position at a time when global markets continue to deteriorate and overall sentiment is negative."

Thus, clearly, barring some bad publicity and bad-bad-bad-n-worse Ratings Agencies intransigence, the bank would have been just fine, thank you...

And as per future, a gem:
"We are determined as part of our long term strategy to rebuild trust and confidence. A key priority of the new Board is to ensure we regain our position in the corporate, wholesale and debt capital markets and over time enhance the quality of funding, building on our diversified international platforms. ...The Bank’s ambition is to expand its retail franchise by targeting new and existing markets with competitively priced transparent products."

The Happy Times, they are coming back...

Obviously, there is no one to blame, but bad PR and bad-bad-bad-n-worse Ratings Agencies:
"I continue to be impressed by the tremendously loyal and professional staff in all areas of the Bank who deserve great credit for their dedication and commitment. Like all stakeholders, staff members across the Group have been deeply impacted and disappointed by recent events. They share the Board’s determination to restore confidence and trust in the Bank. The Board has great faith in the ability and strength of our people and they will play a critical role in ensuring the future viability of the Bank."

In other words, neither the staff, nor the Board had any idea of these bad things that have happened... it is, therefore, 'carry on across all decks' moment... But just in case you don't get this tingling sensation of excitement for the future from above, here it is in full glory:
"...a comprehensive business plan is being developed which will ensure the Bank’s long term viability.

...We will look at evolving from our existing structure to a broader more diversified business bank. The Bank’s customer service ethos and ability to provide effective and efficient service will help us meet the needs of sole traders, SMEs and larger businesses.

The Board is resolute in its determination to ensure that the Bank emerges from its current situation as a strong and viable institution and one that stakeholders feel proud of."

QED.

NB: Judging by objectives set out above, the Board and the senior management of the bank have by now failed in achieving the goals set out by themselves for themselves back in 2008-2009. Anyone to be held responsible?.. other than bad PR and bad-bad-bad-n-worse Ratings Agencies?..

NB2: Karl's reaction - and I am in agreement with him on it:

24/6/2013: Ifo Business Climate Survey for Germany: June 2013

German economy continues to grow, per latest Ifo Business Climate Survey for June 2013:

Basically, all three core indicators are above the water (>100), with

• Business Climate reading at 105.9, up on 105.7 in May and 105.1 in June 2012. 
• Business Situation reading slipped slightly to 109.4 in June from 110.0 in May and is down on 113.8 recorded in June 2012.
• Business Expectations forward are actually relatively soft at 102.5 in June, up on sluggish 101.6 a month ago and up on contractionary 97.1 in June 2012.
• Dynamics wise, Climate and Expectations readings in June were ahead of their 12mo average through May 2013, but Situation reading is basically flat. On 6mo average through May comparative, all indices are ahead of the average in June, save Climate which is flat.

Of four core subsectors, however, only Manufacturing is above water on expectations side. 

Net: strong performance, given prevailing conditions in the global and euro area economies, but no massive fireworks.

23/6/2013: Sindo & Indo: "'Bondholders are f***ing us up the arse' – Anglo"

With slow drip of a freshly leaking faucet, we are getting more and more granularity on the events surrounding Anglo collapse and the events leading up to the Guarantee. Here's the latest instalment:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/bondholders-are-fing-us-up-the-arse-anglo-29365626.html

It is impossible to assume that this information, in pretty much the same words, was not conveyed to the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance before the issuance of the Guarantee. Which, of confirmed, would imply wilful act on their behalf in securing the payouts to the bondholders against all information available.

It is also virtually impossible to imagine, given this information, that the IL&P did not know well in advance of the fated 'deposits'-'loans' swap of late September 2008 that its funding arrangements with Anglo were high risk and not exactly kosher. Which implies that the Irish Fin Reg also knew the same. If the Fin Reg did not know this, its lack of awareness would signify an absolute level of incompetence that would be staggering even by the pretty high bars for incompetence set during Bertie Era.

In short, the two material bits in the article linked above are... well... staggering in their importance.

Updated: more on the same from 
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/inside-anglo-the-secret-recordings-29366837.html 
now down on tapes and making the case for accusing Anglo senior staff of knowingly manipulating the bank relationship with the CBofI/FinReg!


So while Bondholders were 'f***ing up Anglo', Anglo was f***ing up the entire financial system of Ireland with Ireland's financial system cheerful approval. The only ones who got f***ed up in the end were... Irish taxpayers. Happy times!


Updated: ZeroHedge on the same: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-24/anglo-irish-picked-bailout-number-out-my-arse-force-shared-taxpayer-sacrifice

And Anglo 2008 accounts have been released: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2462013-anglo-2008-annual-report-is-out.html

23/6/2013: On Dealing with Mortgages Arrears: Adverts v Process

A reply to @cbolgerr regarding the issue of contacting your bank when experiencing financial pressure in relation to mortgages:

In simple term (omitting some considerations), prior to the crisis people were mis-sold mortgages by the banks. Many mortgages were mis-sold on the basis of poor risk pricing by the banks - the job that the banks are paid to do. There was so much mis-selling that the problem of unsustainable mortgages is now structural.

People who mis-sold them these mortgages are still in the banks and are now the same people working on 'resolving' the problems. There were no involuntary layoffs of banking staff and there was no clearing of the banks lending officers or risk management staff on a systemic basis to match the problems in the lending markets. Hence, these staff members are still there. And accepting that they have no new lending to do, these are now the staff working on resolving the mortgages problems. As such, they have neither ability, nor credibility, nor incentives, nor compassion to do anything to repair the damage they have done.

In this environment, and provided the information and power asymmetries awarded to the banks by the Government & Regulator at the expense of mortgagees, the only thing that mortgagees should do is, simultaneously:
1) continue contributing to servicing their mortgages to the extent feasible,
2) prepare as much relevant financial information as possible in order to be able to file FSS,
3) identify an independent, properly regulated and knowledgeable/experienced representation for their case,
4) treat any engagement with the bank as potentially hostile and detrimental to them.

Their first step should be to seek independent advice and representation in the process. Unfortunately, the PIP system put forward by the state is itself at risk of being biased in favour of the banks. Still, it is better than following through on the banks advertising and contacting them before securing independent representation.

There are very few practitioners who have any relevant experience in dealing with the banks. And fewer still willing to help with advice before securing large payments from the homeowners. Care must be given to how the banks and the PIP system are approached.

Key issue, however, is that any mortgage holder under stress should continue engaging with servicing the loan to establish 'good will'. The banks are not required to establish any 'good will' toward borrowers, so the system in inherently unfair and asymmetric, but that is the reality of the fundamentally unjust legal framework established by the government and, for now - until challenged and changed - it has to be obeyed. 

22/6/2013: Weekend Reading Links: Part 3 of 3

This is the third and the last post of my regular weekly feature of the Weekend Reading Links On Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics (see the first post here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2162013-weekend-reading-links-part-1.html and the second one here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2262013-weekend-reading-links-part-2-of.html).

Just awesome, tireless in its brilliance and time-invested poignance, the encounter that took decades to shape and seconds to execute. If it were a performance, it qualifies for an Oscar : http://zengarage.com.au/2013/03/marina-abramovic-and-ulay/  h/t to @sherqui for reminding us about it. One question, though, how on earth could have followed Ulay to that chair?!.

Chile's Pezo von Ellrichshausen Architectshas finished Solo Pezo property - part of the Solo Houses project in Matarraña, south of Barcelona: http://www.solo-houses.com/en/solohouses/page/houses/solo-pezo

Solo Pezo is a concrete structure lifted to the landscape's natural ceiling of tree-tops on a monolithic square platform. Views and light are maximized. There is a deep pool in the roofless central space as a visual tension point between sky and earth. Good slidshow of images is here: http://www.wallpaper.com/architecture/the-first-of-12-solo-houses-is-completed-in-spain/6578#82798

As a lecturer myself, I know that students are not only canvases for us to shape (actually, they are not that at all, but the traditional teacher-student nexus implies transmission of value to the recipient of it, hence the hierarchical implicit structure) but they are also a source of inspiration. Here's a sample - a MICA retrospective:

http://www.mica.edu/Browse_Art/2012_Commencement_Exhibition.html?page=1

Brilliant works across the space. Enjoy!

Moscow Art Fair 2013 is coming up http://www.art-moscow.ru/en in September and, unless plans change, I will miss it this year (Irish trade mission is not being planned for that time, so I will not have an excuse to travel...) Here are some pics from 2011 show http://www.art-moscow.ru/2274.html. I love this one from 2008:

And more links from 2011 show http://www.itsliquid.com/art-moscow-2011.html. 2012 show images: http://www.art-moscow.ru/2512.html gotta love the irony:

And on these two humorous/sarcastic notes, have a fabulous weekend.

22/6/2013: Weekend Reading Links: Part 2 of 3

The second post (of three) of my regular weekly feature of the Weekend Reading Links On Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics (see the first post here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2162013-weekend-reading-links-part-1.html):

Some interesting long-exposure photos: http://likes.com/misc/amazing-longexposure-pics-of-star-trails?v=eyJjbGlja19pZCI6IDExNzI1NDE3MDMsICJwb3N0X2lkIjogMjUxMTQ1OTZ9 These remind me of the dynamics of Hurst's spin paintings series and a circular geometry with fractal qualities of Frantisek Kupka.


Some stunning architecture next:

http://www.designboom.com/architecture/tatiana-bilbao-studio-visit-interview/
That 'gabriel orozco house', roca blanca, mexico, 2008 project evokes Casa Malaparte. my favourite house in all of the world... well, one of the most favourite ones, because it has to compete with Neutra(s) and Mies Van Der Rohe(s) and so on...

Same forceful linear projection into the landscape, same blending into the physical geometry of the landscape and same play on contrast of height and angularity:

Where science meets art: Images of Cosmographic Maps Chart Galaxies and Superclusters in Local Universe
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/06/cosmography-maps/?cid=co8792474 via @wiredscience and @adamspacemann
I love the term 'local universe'...  Awesome maps show you galaxies and cosmic clusters... and wonkishly clinical 'flow' map... of the 'local universe'

Back on Earth, 'local universes' are moving, again...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130617104614.htm
Just as G8 announced bringing closer (via trade) North America and Europe, so in geology the process of driving Europe closer to the USofA et al is on... so non-economic quote of the day is "This break-up and reformation of supercontinents has happened at least three times, over more than four billion years, on Earth. The Iberian subduction will gradually pull Iberia towards the United States over approximately 220 million years." I dare say, those visas one day will be done with and then Dublin Airport US immigration clearance desks will have to be abandoned.


http://www.urbannexusinitiative.com/ is hosting an exhibition on Liffey: A boulevard of rooms + corridors: http://www.urbannexusinitiative.com/May-2013(2689947).htm This really is worth much more than just few web pages, so let's hope the folks at Urban Nexus get their act together and produce a killer site with images, interaction etc...
As Joseph Brodsky noted:
"What do you love most of all?
Rivers and streets - the long things of life"
Liffey is a tortured river, defaced by modern and contemporary ugliness and decay in places, as well as by spots of rather banal old architecture too, yet highlighted by moments of beauty and by more recent city efforts to bring it to life. It is alive and it is stunningly beautiful as a counterpoint to and reaffirmation of what we, humans, have wrecked around it: good and bad. It is one of the three core natural attractors that create a physically visual pull of Dublin (the other two being Wicklow mountains and the Dublin Bay, the latter being equally defaced by our inability to stop abusing the commons of nature).


The third post of links for this weekend (I warned you I have many this time around) is coming up, so stay tuned.

21/6/2013: Weekend Reading Links: Part 1

The first post of my regular weekly feature of the Weekend Reading Links On Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics:


Let's hit science bit (ok, rather technology) first: IBM's famed Watson is getting into a museum: http://www.computerhistory.org/atchm/ibms-watson-jeopardy-computer-comes-to-chm/
I remember being at IBM when Watson played the Jeopardy rounds. It was amazing. I also recall working on Watson's capabilities and deployment in finance for deep risk pricing. As my memory tells me, the code for Watson's brilliance was written by a team from Ireland.


I know, I avoid dealing with economics here, so treat this as not a note about how art is a fantastic example of high value-added exports, but as a story about globalization of art's language and acquisition and exchange of knowledge: http://www.theartnewspaper.com/articles/Royal-Academy-in-talks-with-potential-Moscow-partner/29952


Art meets design: http://wordlesstech.com/2013/05/24/jaguar-inspired-artwork-unveiled/
I was supposed to speak about the economic dimensions of design (including industrial design) at http://birmingham-made-me.org/ this week, but had to withdraw for personal reasons. Really bummed!


An amazingly consistently thoughtful inversions of Jan Kriwol: http://wordlesstech.com/2013/05/14/unique-universe-by-innovative-polish/

A simple trick of inverting the focal point to create a juxtaposition between expectation and realization. Pure orthogonality works.


Is it art? Well, I am not sure. But it has meaning. It has its own language, its own semiotics, its own passions, beliefs etc. So is it art?
http://likes.com/misc/prison-tattoos-and-their-secret-meanings
I am not sure. But I do recall how much amazement I experienced when I first time looked at prison tattoos from the point of view of attempting to understand them. For years, seeing them on beaches around the USSR, I grew up on a steady diet of rejecting these expressions of personal lives as being vulgar, invalid, something to be permanently kept below my domain (all consisten positions of the Russian intelligentsia's conservativism in the face of both reality and modernity). And then, years later, there I was in a UCLA classroom of Professor Mascaro, reading about Russian prison tattoos and writing an essay on the link between liner logic and their compositions... Still remember that! And the strangely correlated across time and space St Pat's day when myself and Professor Mascaro were the only two people in a class, not wearing green... Many years fast forward, here I am in my Dublin kitchen posting about prison tattoos, remembering Professor Mascaro and wondering... is this art?..


A.A. Gill is a form of narrative that is art. And here he is with a thesis of America the Marvelous http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2013/07/america-with-love-aa-gill-excerpt?mbid=social_twitter
Worth a read, as always.


I wrote before about light art, Dan Flavin (here) in particular. Here's James Turrell - another master of the medium - and he is http://www.guggenheim.org/new-york/exhibitions/on-view/james-turrell

Back in 1999 myself and MrsG had a joint entry at a group exhibition in Baltimore, using light as part of installation. The tile was Mutatis Mutandis, if I recall correctly, and it lived for about 5 minutes, subsequently knocking out lights in the entire multistory building in downtown Baltimore... the party went on... Turrell's work is striking enough to knock daylights out of your senses of space and dimension. If in NYC - a must see!

Guggenheim's show completes an unprecedented sequence of installations undertaken by Turrell that started with LA's LACMA, followed by Houston's MFA within a month and then onto NYC to Guggenheim - all across the impossible span of just 3 months. Impossible, because the entire installation of this retrospective requires rebuilding rooms, halls, spaces spanning 92,000 sq feet.

Here's an image from Houston:

Let me end this post on accidental art http://www.businessinsider.com/14-pictures-of-our-crowded-world-2013-6
The first image is fantastic. Absolutely, Gursky-like (link). As is number 9 and number 12 and 13. And number 7 is Missoni-like or better yet Morris Louis in gamma and linearity of the core movements. Yes, yes, Michael Wolf deals with density, especially in his Hong Kong series... that, perhaps, next week?

End of this post... stay tuned for the second part tomorrow and read...

21/6/2013: Irish Mortgages Arrears Q1 2013

At last, with a delay of some 4 weeks we have the Mortgages Arrears data for Ireland for Q1 2013. The delay was caused by (my sources tell me) a reporting glitch from one of the institutions. 

At any rate, the CBofI release of the data does not seem to fit any of the conspiracies theories bandied about, so let's assume that it was a glitch. That raises a question - what sort of a glitch can disrupt reporting of something as simple as arrears without having any effect whatsoever on any lender's other operations? I shall leave this question for you to ponder.

What do the figures tell us? As usual, my suggestion is - ignore the spin in the media, read CBofI own release, read https://www.mortgageholders.ie/ position (due tomorrow am) and let's focus on raw numbers here.

In Q1 2013, number of outstanding mortgages accounts relating to principal dwelling houses/residences (PDH) stood at 774,109, down on 792,096 in Q4 2012 - a decline of 2.27% q/q, but an increase of 1.3% y/y. With BTLs added, total number of residential mortgages in the country stood at 923,504 or 2.01% below Q4 2012 and 20.9% above Q2 2012 when reporting began. Much of changes in the total numbers of mortgages in recent quarters is accounted for by classification changes.

While the number of mortgages outstanding dropped by 2.27% for PDH, volumes of loans relating to mortgages decline by far smaller 0.79%.

So observation 1: exits remain based predominantly on pay downs of older vintage, smaller mortgages, leaving the remaining pool of mortgages more toxic.

Total number of accounts in arrears in relation to PDH stood at 142,118 in Q1 2013, down 1.2% from 143,851 accounts in Q4 2012, but up 15.6% y/y. Total outstanding amounts relating to PDH accounts in arrears was up 2.85% q/q at EUR25.485 billion (up 11.21% y/y) and underlying volumes of accumulated arrears rose to EUR1.932 billion (up 7.81% q/q and 39.87% y/y).

Observation 2: Marginal decrease in arrears-impacted mortgages accounts was associated with deeper deterioration in terms of the volumes of PDH mortgages impacted by arrears. The problem got slightly more concentrated and much more toxic.

Number of accounts in arrears in relation to BTL rose to 39,371 in Q1 2013, up 3.73% q/q and up 13.4% y/y. Total outstanding amounts relating to BTL accounts in arrears was up 2.84% q/q at EUR10.891 billion (up 10.94% y/y) and underlying volumes of accumulated arrears were at EUR1.178 billion (down 1.29% q/q and up 40.13% y/y). Note: y/y comparatives for BTLs are only referencing 9 months period since the end of Q2 2012 - the first period for which we have data available.

Observation 3: BTLs continued to tank across the board, although cumulated arrears amounts did decline q/q. Assuming there were no reclassifications, this suggests some write-offs by the banks of defaulted loans.

Total (PDH+BTL) number of accounts in arrears stood at 181.489 in Q1 2013, down 0.17% from 181,806 accounts in Q4 2012, but up 11.4% on Q2 2012 - the earliest for which we have data available for BTL. Total outstanding amounts relating to all mortgages accounts in arrears was up 2.85% q/q at EUR36.376 billion a rise of 9.02% on Q2 2012. However, the core number, relating to cumulated arrears has jumped significantly more than any other arrears-related parameter. This rose to EUR3.11 billion in Q1 2013 up 4.17% q/q and +33.83% on Q2 2012.

Observation 4: across all residential mortgages, the problem of arrears became slightly marginally more concentrated and significantly more toxic.

In Q1 2013, 185,263 PDH mortgages accounts were either at risk of default or defaulting (the category that includes, per my methodology, all mortgages in arrears, all repossessions and all mortgages that are restructured and currently are not in arrears), which is 0.81% down on Q4 2012 and +13.97% up on Q1 2012. At the same time, there were 52,991 BTL accounts at risk or defaulting, up 2.15% q/q and up 14.74% y/y. Which means that across all mortgages, the number of accounts at risk of default or defaulting declined marginally from 238,663 to 238, 254 between Q4 2012 and Q1 2013. The number was up 10.53% y/y.

At the end of Q1 2013, 20.1% of all PDH mortgages accounts were at risk of default or defaulting, up on 19.8% in Q4 2012. The percentage of BTL mortgages that were at risk of default or defaulting in Q1 2013 was 35.5%, up on 34.5% in Q4 2012. 

Among all residential mortgages in Ireland, in Q1 2013 25.8% were at risk of default or defaulting, up on 25.3% in Q4 2012. 9 months ago that percentage stood at 23.6%, implying a swing up of 2.2 percentage points in 9 months or an annualised rate of increase in the incidence of risk of default or defaulting of 2.94 percentage points.

Update:  Here is a link to IMHO statement on today's data: https://www.mortgageholders.ie/irelands-mortgage-crisis-is-blowing-out-of-control/