25/6/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

Trump cheers today's unemployment figures... and...

Week of June 13th non-seasonally adjusted new unemployment claims were revised up to 1,463,363, from 1,433,027 published a week ago.

First estimate for the week of June 20th came in at 1,457,373.

Total initial unemployment claims filed so far during the COVID19 pandemic now sit at a massive, gargantuan 43,303,196, while estimated jobs losses (we only have official data for these through May, so using June unemployment claims to factor an estimate) are at 24,033,000. Putting this into perspective, combined losses of jobs during all recessions prior to the current one from 1945 through 2019 amount to 31,664,000.

A visual to map things out:

Charted differently:

Let's put this week's number into perspective: last week marked 14th worst week from January 1, 1967 through today. Here is tally of COVID19 initial claims ranks in history:

This is pretty epic, right? We are cheering 14th worst week in history. Note: all 14 worst weeks in history took place during this pandemic.

Of course, not all of the last week's initial unemployment claims are new claims. Initial claims can arise from people who have been kicked off prior unemployment rolls, who were denied unemployment filed earlier and so on. But the numbers above are dire. Disastrously dire. No matter how we spin the table.

18/6/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

Weekly data for initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 13, 2020 is out, so here are the updated 'America's Scariest Charts':

Index of employment, benchmarked to the pre-recession peak employment:

Estimated total non-farm payrolls:

And initial unemployment claims, half-year running sum:

Today's initial unemployment claims came in at 1,561,267 for the week ending June 6, 2020 (final estimate), slightly up on previous preliminary estimate. For the week ending June 13, 2020, non-seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims came in at a preliminary estimate of 1,433,027.

A summary table to put these numbers into historical comparative:

Some recent context on the latest official employment numbers from earlier this month is provided here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/11620-americas-scariest-charts-updated.html.

11/6/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

The latest data on initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 6, 2020 is out today (release here: https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/061120.pdf). Initial unemployment claims are up another 1,537,120 in one week, though the rate of new additions is down slightly on the revised 1,620,010 new claims in the week ending May 30, 2020.

Here is the summary of the claims and jobs losses during the current recession as compared to all previous post-WW2 recessions:

Cumulative estimated jobs losses so far in this recession amount to 21,088,120, though this number is likely to change as we get more updates on actual employment figures. Cumulative number of new unemployment claims filed in this recession stands at 40,358,315. This number includes those who were denied benefits in prior filings, but subsequently re-filed their claims. Nonetheless, the number is an important indicator of just how woefully horrific the COVID19 pandemic has been on U.S. labour force.

Updating data for June for Non-Farm Payrolls, and incorporating official number for May 2020, reported last week:

Estimated payroll numbers are now down to the levels las seen in 3Q 2000, effectively implying that COVID19 has ashed more jobs than were created in almost the entire 21 years of this century.

Here is another way to visualize the above data:

Here is what this week's initial claims print means for the index of jobs market performance during the current recession, compared to the already widely-debunked optimistic jobs report of last week for May:

In effect, this week largely destroyed most of the 2.509 million jobs created myth paraded by President Trump last week. In reality, of course, we know that that jobs creation print was to a large extent the outrun of re-registrations and benefits expirations, plus the figment of the BLS data collection methods. For the best explanation of these factors, read: https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/surprise-the-bls-admits-another-phony-jobs-report and my take on this is: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/5620-incredible-jobs-report-meets.html.

5/6/20: "Incredible" Jobs Report Meets Reality

Some updates on the jobs report this morning for the U.S.

Political reaction:

Reality bites:

New initial unemployment claims last week: 1,603,000. Putting this into perspective:

Which brings latest non-farm payrolls figures back to 1Q 2000 levels:

So, yeah, right, "tremendous" or put differently, we have 20 years worth of jobs destroyed. Non-farm payrolls increase of 2,509,000 is a good thing at the tail end of May, but the average weekly new unemployment claims increases from March 14 through May 30 currently stand at 3,527,650. This means the "tremendous" gains are just 71% of the weekly average losses.

Beware of morons brigades pushing the successories posters.

21/5/20: Weekly Unemployment Claims: Updated

In the previous post, I have updated one of the charts relating to the U.S. labor market, namely the chart on employment https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/21520-horror-show-of-covid19.html. The data used is a mixture of monthly employment numbers and within-month weekly unemployment claims.

For consistency, here is the chart plotting weekly unemployment claims based on half-year cumulative numbers:

21/5/20: The Horror Show of COVID19 Unemployment

New initial claims data is out for last week, and so time to update one of my scary charts:

Here is a summary table:

At 2,174,329 new claims filed in the week ending May 16th, the lowest number in weekly new claims since the start of the COVID19 pandemic, it's quite tempting to say that things are improving in the labor markets. Alas, last week's print was greater than the entire recession period combined prints of four past recessions.

Cumulative first claims filed in the last 9 weeks now stand at 35,276,270, which amounts to 23.2 percent of the entire non-farm labor force in the U.S. at December 2019. 

3/5/20: Updated: The Scariest Chart in Economics

Updating one of the two 'Scariest Charts' in economics with the latest data - preliminary, through April 25, 2020:

This goes hand-in-hand with the earlier chart here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/3520-updated-shocking-wave-of-jobs.html. 

The speed and the depth of jobs destruction in the U.S. during the last two months has been beyond precedent. 

23/4/20: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Heading into COVID19 Disaster

Adding to the two scariest charts in economic history (see https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/1942020-two-scariest-charts-in-economic.html), a third chart, showing changes in the U.S. labor force participation rates during and following recessions:

The above clearly shows that 2008-2009 recession has been unique in the history of the U.S. economy not only in terms of the unprecedented duration of unemployment (link above), but also in terms of the scale of exits from the labor force. In fact, this was the first recession on record that resulted in post-recession recovery not reaching pre-recession high in terms of labor force participation rates.

19/4/2020: Two Scariest Charts in Economic History

I have been posting quite a bit on U.S. unemployment and jobs destruction numbers coming from the COVID-19 pandemic. So here are two charts to watch into the future, and I will be updating these throughout the crisis here.

The first chart plots evolution of non-farm payrolls index for each official recession. I used as the index base average payroll numbers for 6 months prior to the first month of the recession. I then compute and plot the index from month 1 of the recession through the last month prior to the next recession.

The second chart is the average duration of unemployment claims or average weeks unemployed. Again, series start from the first month of officially-declared recession and run until the subsequent recession.

Both charts illustrate the contradictory nature of the post-2008-2009 recession recovery. Whilst the recovery has been the longest in duration (chart 1 above), it has not been the most dramatic in terms of employment creation relative to prior pre-recession peak (line "2008-2009" solid segment runs longer than any other line, but does not gain heights of at least 6 prior recoveries.  Per chart 2 above, recovery from 2008-2009 recession has been associated with unprecedented length of duration of unemployment. The series here stop at the end of February 2020, so they do not account for the recent jobs losses, simply because there has not been, yet, official announcement of a recession.

You can read on March-April jobs losses here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/16420-four-weeks-of-true-unemployment.html and in the context of prior recessions here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/18420-shocking-wave-of-jobs-destruction.html.

Stay tuned, as I will be updating these two charts as data arrives.

16/11/2014: America's Scariest Chart...

Yes, US unemployment is declining. Yes, US economy is adding jobs. Yes, the crisis is… almost over… Except…

Except that is:

• Average duration of unemployment rose in October (the latest we have data for) and
• Average duration of unemployment remains totally out of touch with previous recessions.

Now, note the following regularity:

• After 2001 recession, average duration of unemployment never returned to pre-recession levels;
• The same has happened in the recession of 1990-1991.

In other words, so far in all three most recent recessions there was a permanent increase in unemployment duration over and above pre-recessionary average.

Every time this happens in the economy the following takes place: some of those who were long term unemployed during the recession become permanently unemployed. And every time this happens, the jobs being created in a recovery are by-passing those who have been long-term unemployed.

Now look back at the current crisis running stats. Average time it took unemployment duration to fall back to pre-crisis levels in all previous recessions is 61 months. We are now into 77th month of unemployment duration staying above pre-recessionary levels. And counting. By length of the crisis to-date, this is the third worst recession in post-war history.

We are also at the duration levels vastly in excess of those recorded in all previous recessions. By this matrix, the US is in its worst recession in post-war history.

Here is the raw data:

While the US economy might be generating jobs, it is not generating enough of the jobs to shift the long-term unemployed, and it is not generating the types of jobs that can get this massive army of people forced to rely on unemployment benefits back into productive employment.

9/10/2014: Revisiting that Scariest Chart for the US...

With all the 'good news' on US unemployment out, time to update my Scariest Chart relating to the subject.

Take a look at average duration of unemployment through September 2104:

And now take a look the Scariest Chart plotting duration of unemployment within every historical episode of unemployment duration exceeding pre-recession average:

In other words, positive momentum is retained and average duration of unemployment in the current crisis is falling relative to pre-crisis average, but:
1) Average duration of unemployment remains well above its pre-crisis average during the current episode;
2) Average duration of unemployment over and above pre-crisis average in the current period is well higher than in any other crisis period;
3) The duration of the jobs crisis in the US, measured by the length of period over which average duration of unemployment is above its pre-crisis period is now just 2 months shy of overtaking the third longest crisis in history (although we should really exclude that episode as it covers short-lived sharp 2001 recession during which the duration went up and stayed permanently above pre-crisis period).

So things are significantly better, but they are still epically bad...

27/7/2014: TrueEconomics' Scariest Chart Covered by ZeroHedge

Nice to see my 'New Scariest Chart in America' making its way to ZeroHedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-21/new-scariest-chart-america

Honoured, as always.