25/6/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

Trump cheers today's unemployment figures... and...

Week of June 13th non-seasonally adjusted new unemployment claims were revised up to 1,463,363, from 1,433,027 published a week ago.

First estimate for the week of June 20th came in at 1,457,373.

Total initial unemployment claims filed so far during the COVID19 pandemic now sit at a massive, gargantuan 43,303,196, while estimated jobs losses (we only have official data for these through May, so using June unemployment claims to factor an estimate) are at 24,033,000. Putting this into perspective, combined losses of jobs during all recessions prior to the current one from 1945 through 2019 amount to 31,664,000.

A visual to map things out:

Charted differently:

Let's put this week's number into perspective: last week marked 14th worst week from January 1, 1967 through today. Here is tally of COVID19 initial claims ranks in history:

This is pretty epic, right? We are cheering 14th worst week in history. Note: all 14 worst weeks in history took place during this pandemic.

Of course, not all of the last week's initial unemployment claims are new claims. Initial claims can arise from people who have been kicked off prior unemployment rolls, who were denied unemployment filed earlier and so on. But the numbers above are dire. Disastrously dire. No matter how we spin the table.

18/6/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

Weekly data for initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 13, 2020 is out, so here are the updated 'America's Scariest Charts':

Index of employment, benchmarked to the pre-recession peak employment:

Estimated total non-farm payrolls:

And initial unemployment claims, half-year running sum:

Today's initial unemployment claims came in at 1,561,267 for the week ending June 6, 2020 (final estimate), slightly up on previous preliminary estimate. For the week ending June 13, 2020, non-seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims came in at a preliminary estimate of 1,433,027.

A summary table to put these numbers into historical comparative:

Some recent context on the latest official employment numbers from earlier this month is provided here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/11620-americas-scariest-charts-updated.html.

11/6/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

The latest data on initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 6, 2020 is out today (release here: https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/061120.pdf). Initial unemployment claims are up another 1,537,120 in one week, though the rate of new additions is down slightly on the revised 1,620,010 new claims in the week ending May 30, 2020.

Here is the summary of the claims and jobs losses during the current recession as compared to all previous post-WW2 recessions:

Cumulative estimated jobs losses so far in this recession amount to 21,088,120, though this number is likely to change as we get more updates on actual employment figures. Cumulative number of new unemployment claims filed in this recession stands at 40,358,315. This number includes those who were denied benefits in prior filings, but subsequently re-filed their claims. Nonetheless, the number is an important indicator of just how woefully horrific the COVID19 pandemic has been on U.S. labour force.

Updating data for June for Non-Farm Payrolls, and incorporating official number for May 2020, reported last week:

Estimated payroll numbers are now down to the levels las seen in 3Q 2000, effectively implying that COVID19 has ashed more jobs than were created in almost the entire 21 years of this century.

Here is another way to visualize the above data:

Here is what this week's initial claims print means for the index of jobs market performance during the current recession, compared to the already widely-debunked optimistic jobs report of last week for May:

In effect, this week largely destroyed most of the 2.509 million jobs created myth paraded by President Trump last week. In reality, of course, we know that that jobs creation print was to a large extent the outrun of re-registrations and benefits expirations, plus the figment of the BLS data collection methods. For the best explanation of these factors, read: https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/surprise-the-bls-admits-another-phony-jobs-report and my take on this is: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/5620-incredible-jobs-report-meets.html.

5/6/20: "Incredible" Jobs Report Meets Reality

Some updates on the jobs report this morning for the U.S.

Political reaction:

Reality bites:

New initial unemployment claims last week: 1,603,000. Putting this into perspective:

Which brings latest non-farm payrolls figures back to 1Q 2000 levels:

So, yeah, right, "tremendous" or put differently, we have 20 years worth of jobs destroyed. Non-farm payrolls increase of 2,509,000 is a good thing at the tail end of May, but the average weekly new unemployment claims increases from March 14 through May 30 currently stand at 3,527,650. This means the "tremendous" gains are just 71% of the weekly average losses.

Beware of morons brigades pushing the successories posters.

28/5/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

It is Thursday, so time to update U.S. initial unemployment claims counts and labor markets charts for the data through the end of last week:

A summary table first:

Per latest, initial unemployment claims increased in the week through May 23rd by 1,914,958, marking a major slowdown on the previous weeks' increase, but still running new unemployment claims additions at a rate in excess of 1 million per week, for the 10th consecutive week.

This means that from the start of March 2020 through the week ending May 23rd, total number of initial unemployment claims filed in the U.S. stands at 37,198,539. For comparison, cumulative jobs losses in all recessions since 1945 and through the recession of 2009-2010 amount to 31,664,000.

Adjusting for timings of new unemployment claims and for the most current data on actual non-farm employment, the chart below provides an estimate for current non-farm employment in the U.S.:

Current estimated non-farm employment is at 121,021,000, down from 152,442,000 in February 2020. Current employment, therefore is estimated at around the levels last seen in October 1997.

The chart below plots the history of the initial unemployment claims, using 26 weeks (half-year) cumulative:

In the entire history of the data series for initial unemployment claims, prior to COVID19, there is only one week in which total claims exceeded 1 million mark, the second week of January 1982, when the new claims hit 1,073,500. During the Great Recession, the worst week for initial unemployment claims saw claims rising 956,791. Over the last 10 weeks, the average weekly initial claims filings stood at 3,719,854, which is roughly equivalent to five worst weeks of the Great Recession combined (weeks of 27/12/2008 - 24/01/2009).

Here is a chart showing U.S. employment index across past recessions and post-recession recoveries:

21/5/20: Weekly Unemployment Claims: Updated

In the previous post, I have updated one of the charts relating to the U.S. labor market, namely the chart on employment https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/21520-horror-show-of-covid19.html. The data used is a mixture of monthly employment numbers and within-month weekly unemployment claims.

For consistency, here is the chart plotting weekly unemployment claims based on half-year cumulative numbers:

21/5/20: The Horror Show of COVID19 Unemployment

New initial claims data is out for last week, and so time to update one of my scary charts:

Here is a summary table:

At 2,174,329 new claims filed in the week ending May 16th, the lowest number in weekly new claims since the start of the COVID19 pandemic, it's quite tempting to say that things are improving in the labor markets. Alas, last week's print was greater than the entire recession period combined prints of four past recessions.

Cumulative first claims filed in the last 9 weeks now stand at 35,276,270, which amounts to 23.2 percent of the entire non-farm labor force in the U.S. at December 2019. 

15/5/20: U.S. Retail Sales and Employment: Pandemicession

Data through April 2020 on U.S. Retail Sales is in, so here are two charts:

Retail Sales are down 15.08% m/m in April, and down 18.25% on 1Q 2020 average. Year on year, sales are down 17.83%. Losses in retail sales in April amounted to USD 65.97 billion m/m and USD80.635 billion y/y. March-April cumulated losses amounted to USD 93 billion y/y.

Meanwhile, jobs losses in the Retail Sales sector have been dramatic as well:

Employment in Retail Sales sector fell 2,127,000 in the first two months of the COVID19 pandemic compared to year prior, with April employment declining 2,111,000 or 13.5%. Overall sector employment numbers at the end of April stood around the levels last seen in 1994, effectively erasing any employment gains made over 26 years.

Good thing all the workers in the sector are at least seeing recovery in their stocks portfolios. Otherwise, there could have been social unrest, you know...

15/5/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

Updating my America's Scariest Charts for the latest data on weekly unemployment claims:

New unemployment claims continue to rise (see table below), with data for the week ending May 9th coming in this week printing 2.6 million new claims.

While non-farm payrolls are reported on a monthly basis, we can now integrate the numbers of new unemployment claims (subject to future revisions) for the first week of may, showing the expected impact on the payrolls:

Table below summarizes past recessions experience and current COVID19 'Pandecession':

As shown above, total numbers of jobs losses so far in the pandemic exceed combined jobs losses experienced in all past recessions from 1945 through 2019, based on unemployment claims data.

Finally, here is a chart plotting employment index from the start of the new recession through the end of the recovery cycle:

8/5/20: The Path of a Tornado: U.S. Labour Force Numbers for April

So, BLS just printed their April 2020 numbers of official non-farm payrolls: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm. And things are, expectedly, ugly.

Civilian 'non-institutional' population is up 1,203,000 y/y, while employment is down 23,384,000. Official unemployment i up from 3.3% in April 2019 to 14.4% in April 2020. Number not in the labour force are up 7,470,000 and numbers in unemployment are up 17,117,000 y/y. Which means that those out of employment are now up 24,587,000 year on year. Labour force participation rate is down from 62.7 in April 2019 to 60.0 in April 2020. In April 2019, 60.58 percent of the non-institutional American population was in employment. In April 2020 this figure was 51.30 percent. Which means that, excluding jails and military, almost 50 Americans out of 100 were not working even part-time.

Here's a summary of y/y comparatives by education status:

As the result of the massive wave of jobs destruction primarily concentrated in the lower wages categories of services workers, U.S. average labour earnings managed to actually increase (see a post on this from our friends at the Global Macro Monitor: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/05/08/bad-look-of-high-stock-prices-high-unemployment/). In  fact, combined effects of exits from the labour force and unemployment increases for those with less than college degree amount to 74 percent (three quarters) of all jobs destruction compared to April 2019.

With this, based on the data through the week of May 2, 2020, total employment levels in the U.S. are now down to the levels of October-November 1999.

Meanwhile, things are going swimmingly for the financial markets recoveries:

Only foreclosures and evictions delays, unemployment checks and rent rollups are holding back a wave of mass discontent these days.

3/5/20: Updated: The Scariest Chart in Economics

Updating one of the two 'Scariest Charts' in economics with the latest data - preliminary, through April 25, 2020:

This goes hand-in-hand with the earlier chart here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/3520-updated-shocking-wave-of-jobs.html. 

The speed and the depth of jobs destruction in the U.S. during the last two months has been beyond precedent. 

3/5/20: Updated: Shocking Wave of Jobs Destruction

Updating my previous post on the subject of jobs losses in the U.S. (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/230420-shocking-wave-of-jobs.html):

We are now one week away from the unemployment claims filed in March-May 2020 exceeding the grand total of all jobs destroyed during all U.S. recessions between 1945 and 2019. That is, before actually exceeding the number of all jobs destroyed over all recessions over 75 years combined.

Current estimated non-farm payrolls are approximately back to 1997 levels, throwing payroll numbers some 23 years back within the span of just 2 months:

23/04/20: Shocking Wave of Jobs Destruction in the U.S. Update

Updating my earlier post https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/18420-shocking-wave-of-jobs-destruction.html with latest data through April 18, 2020:

Five weeks worth of jobs destructions / furloughs since the onset of COVID19 pandemic is now greater than all jobs destroyed in all U.S. recessions from 1953 through 2009.

18/4/20: Shocking Wave of Jobs Destruction in the U.S.

The last four weeks witnessed an unprecedented level of jobs shut down in the U.S. (and elsewhere in the world). My earlier post here https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/04/16420-four-weeks-of-true-unemployment.html provided some comparatives. But here is a summary of jobs losses in every U.S. recessions from 1945 through 2019, and comparative figures for jobs losses in March to mid-April 2020:

Put simply, last four weeks of U.S. jobs shut downs are roughly equivalent to the total jobs losses in all U.S. recessions 1945-2002, or, looking in the opposite direction, to all jobs losses in every recession from 1960 through 2009.

As an important aside, U.S> recoveries have been slower and slower in recent decades in terms of jobs creation. 2007-2009 recession took 76 month to restore jobs numbers to pre-recession peak, while 2001 recession took 47 months. In fact, the last four recessions rank as the worst, second worst, fourth worst and fifth worst in terms of jobs recoveries.

This is not to say that the post COVID-19 shutdown recovery is going to be even longer - after all, the last four weeks saw shut down of jobs, not necessarily destruction of jobs, so some of the shut down jobs will be restored as soon as economic activity recovers. Nonetheless, the above numbers really are shocking.

4/4/15: US Jobs ≠ US Wages Inflation. Why not?

Want to understand why the US Economy adding jobs is not translating into the US workers gaining wages? Here's a handy PBS report worth reading: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/why-you-shouldnt-expect-wages-to-rise-any-time-soon/

H/T to John Komlos

Update: an interesting take on the ongoing US economic slowdown from the BusinessInsider: http://uk.businessinsider.com/2015-has-broken-everyones-assumptions-so-far-2015-4?r=US. Note the Atlanta Fed estimate of zero growth in Q1. Weather might be the case. Oil prices, however, are bogus scape goat. Here's a chart showing that the US in fact is  the driver for lower oil prices:

H/T for that to @business