7/6/15: Updating America's Scariest Charts... The Ones You Forgot About

Remember the Old America's Scariest Chart (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/06/662014-king-of-scariest-charts-is-dead.html) and my own New America's Scariest Chart (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/11/16112014-americas-scariest-chart.html). Well, a year ago, the formal one officially 'died'... as in disappeared from the mainstream media.

Question is: did it? Really?

So here is updating the Old America's Scariest Chart (and improving on the original) to current data:

Summary of the lessons from the above: America's jobs recovery in the current cycle is the worst on record for post-WW2 period in terms of recovering the jobs lost. It is second worst on record in terms of post-recovery jobs growth (the worst case being 1953 recession, which simply run into 1957 recession, but taking the two recessions jointly actually delivers better performance than the current recovery period).

And updating the New America's Scariest Chart:

Summary of the lessons from the above: yep, this cycle is also the worst in history for average duration of unemployment.

Happy recovery, U.S. of A. and a happier one, yet, to Europe.

16/11/2014: America's Scariest Chart...

Yes, US unemployment is declining. Yes, US economy is adding jobs. Yes, the crisis is… almost over… Except…

Except that is:

• Average duration of unemployment rose in October (the latest we have data for) and
• Average duration of unemployment remains totally out of touch with previous recessions.

Now, note the following regularity:

• After 2001 recession, average duration of unemployment never returned to pre-recession levels;
• The same has happened in the recession of 1990-1991.

In other words, so far in all three most recent recessions there was a permanent increase in unemployment duration over and above pre-recessionary average.

Every time this happens in the economy the following takes place: some of those who were long term unemployed during the recession become permanently unemployed. And every time this happens, the jobs being created in a recovery are by-passing those who have been long-term unemployed.

Now look back at the current crisis running stats. Average time it took unemployment duration to fall back to pre-crisis levels in all previous recessions is 61 months. We are now into 77th month of unemployment duration staying above pre-recessionary levels. And counting. By length of the crisis to-date, this is the third worst recession in post-war history.

We are also at the duration levels vastly in excess of those recorded in all previous recessions. By this matrix, the US is in its worst recession in post-war history.

Here is the raw data:

While the US economy might be generating jobs, it is not generating enough of the jobs to shift the long-term unemployed, and it is not generating the types of jobs that can get this massive army of people forced to rely on unemployment benefits back into productive employment.

9/10/2014: Revisiting that Scariest Chart for the US...

With all the 'good news' on US unemployment out, time to update my Scariest Chart relating to the subject.

Take a look at average duration of unemployment through September 2104:

And now take a look the Scariest Chart plotting duration of unemployment within every historical episode of unemployment duration exceeding pre-recession average:

In other words, positive momentum is retained and average duration of unemployment in the current crisis is falling relative to pre-crisis average, but:
1) Average duration of unemployment remains well above its pre-crisis average during the current episode;
2) Average duration of unemployment over and above pre-crisis average in the current period is well higher than in any other crisis period;
3) The duration of the jobs crisis in the US, measured by the length of period over which average duration of unemployment is above its pre-crisis period is now just 2 months shy of overtaking the third longest crisis in history (although we should really exclude that episode as it covers short-lived sharp 2001 recession during which the duration went up and stayed permanently above pre-crisis period).

So things are significantly better, but they are still epically bad...