7/5/20: BRIC Composite PMIs: Global Economy in a Free Fall

With Russia and China data finally in, here are the full updated BRIC PMIs for April (note: manufacturing has been covered in more details here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/4520-eurozone-manufacturing-pmis-crater.html).

Sharp drop in Manufacturing PMIs in April, compared to 1Q 2020, were accompanied by even more spectacular declines in Services PMIs:

Across the BRICs, Services PMI fell from 44.9 in 1Q 2020 to 30.6 in April. The two readings represent the lowest and the second lowest readings in quarterly PMIs in history of the series (since 1Q 2006).

Brazil Services PMI sunk from already-contractionary 45.9 in 1Q 2020 to 27.4 in April. Russia saw its Services PMI falling from 47.7 in 1Q 2020 to 12.2 in April, with the swing of -35.5 points in one go. India, however, went into an even worse collapse, with its Services PMI falling from 54.1 to 5.4. Indian economy should be contracting at more than 15.5 percentage points if these numbers are true.

China was a 'relative' out-performer in Services PMIs, with its index increasing from a strongly recessionary 40.4 in 1Q 2020 to 44.4 in April, signalling a moderate reduction in the rate of economic activity contraction.

In comparison, Global Services PMI stood at 24.8 in April, down from 45.5 in 1Q 2020. This means that two of the BRIC economies, Russia and India, are both underperforming Global PMI in the services sector.

As the result of the extreme changes in the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, BRICS composite PMIs have fallen sharply off their 1Q 2020 levels:

Global Composite PMI fell from 45.8 in 1Q 2020 to 26.5 in April, signalling worsening of the global recession. India matched Global Composite PMI reading in April, showing a fall from 46.9 in 1Q 2020 to 26.5 in April. China outperformed the Global Composite, with its Composite PMI rising from 42.0 to 47.6, even though April reading remains recessionary. Russian Composite PMI fell through the floor, declining from the recessionary 47.7 in 1Q 2020 to a depression-level 13.9 in April. India performed even worse, with its Composite PMI falling from growth-supportive 54.8 in 1Q 2020 to an unprecedented 7.2 in April.

Overall, movements in PMIs in March-April 2020 have been extreme. So extreme, I had to re-scale the charts and double-check the numbers, especially in the case of Russia and India.

4/5/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: April

Coronavirus pandemic has finally bitted deeply into the BRICs economic activity data, with April 2020 manufacturing PMIs coming in sharp down:

Combined, GDP-weighted average Manufacturing PMI for Brazil, Russia, India and China came in at 41.4 in April 2020, down from 49.1 in 1Q 2020 and 51.2 in 4Q 2019. Sharp declines in Brazil Manufacturing PMI (down to 36.0 in April, compared to 50.6 in 1Q 2020), Russia (down from an already-recessionary 47.9 in 1Q 2020 to 31.3 in April), and India (collapsing from 53.9 in 1Q 2020 to 27.4 in April) were also not helped by the continued weakness in China (1Q 2020 PMI was 47.2, albeit March 2020 reading was an encouraging 50.1, down to 49.4 in April). So far, the first month of 2Q 2020 shows no positive indicators for Manufacturing sectors across all BRICs.

However, even with this woeful performance, BRICs managed to post higher PMI (slower decline in the economic activity) than the Global economy. Global Manufacturing PMI in April sunk to 39.8 from 48.4 in 1Q 2020 - a drop of 8.6 points, against BRIC Manufacturing PMI sinking from 49.1 to 41.4 - a drop of 7.8 points.

9/3/20: BRIC PMIs 1Q 2020: The Test of Covid2019

BRIC PMIs for February 2020 are out and showing massive strains of #COVID2019 on Chinese economy and the twin supply and demand shocks impact on the Global economy:

Starting with Manufacturing:

India is the only BRIC economy that provided strong support to the upside for Global Manufacturing PMI, with India 1Q 2020 Manufacturing PMI reading so far at 54.9, the strongest since 2Q 2012. Brazil Manufacturing PMI was at 51.7 - marking a moderately strong expansion - roughly in line with 51.8 ad 51.9 for 4Q 2019 and 3Q 2019, respectively. In contrast, Russian Manufacturing PMI continued to show contracting sector activity at 48.1, marking the third consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. Last time Russian Manufacturing reported cautiously positive PMIs was in 1Q 2019.

The real story, however, was Chinese Manufacturing PMI. Thanks to Corona Virus, PMI fell to 45.7 over January-February 2020, with February reading of 40.3 being a complete disaster. The quarterly average is now at it lowest reading since 1Q 2009 when it was at 44.0 and is likely to tank further in March.

Thus, BRIC Manufacturing PMI sat at an abysmal 48.6 reading in 1Q 2020 based on January-February data, the lowest reading since 4Q 2015 and notch below 48.8 reading for Global Manufacturing PMI.

Services PMIs showed the same dynamics as Manufacturing. Again, India led to the upside at 54.9, and Brazil followed at 51.6. Russia remained in solid growth territory, however, in the sector with 1Q 2020 PMI reading at 53.1. China tanked: Chinese services PMI fell to 39.2 in 1Q 2020, dragging the BRIC Services PMI to 45.6 in 1Q 2020, down from 52.3 in 4Q 2019. This is lowest BRIC Services PMI reading on record (note: I use GDP weights to compute BRIC PMIs). Global Services PMI was at 49.9.

Composite PMIs traced the patterns described above for Services and Manufacturing. India Composite PMI was at 57.0 the strongest since 1Q 2011. Brazil Composite PMI was at 51.6, basically unchanged on 4Q 2019 reading of 51.5. Russia Composite Index was at 51.8, down from 4Q 2019 reading of 52.7. China Composite PMI fell to 39.7, its lowest reading on record. Global Composite PMI was at 49.15.

Once again, these readings to-date are impact benchmarks for Corona Virus pandemic shock to the global economy, since the data does not cover the massive spread of contagion from China to other economies which happened in March. The next update, due in early April, should be brutal, as COVID19 bites across the broader global economy.

2/3/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: February 2020

A quick post: Manufacturing PMIs are out for the BRIC economies and, unsurprisingly, things are tanking in China and remain seriously under pressure in Russia:

This is the first snapshot of the effects of Coronavirus #COVID19 #CoronaOutbreak on Chinese top-level economic activity figures. The data plotted above is quarter-based averages of the monthly indicator published by Markit. The BRIC quarterly index is computed by me using relative economy size weights for each BRIC economy. In the preceding 3 quarters, BRICs led global manufacturing activity. In 1Q 2020 so far, the BRIC economies as a group have been a drag on global growth.

7/1/20: BRIC Composite PMIs 4Q 2019

Composite Global economic activity, as measured by Composite PMI has slowed down markedly in 2019 compared to 2018. In 2018, average Composite Global PMI (using quarterly averages) stood at 53.6. This fell back to 51.7 in 2019. In 4Q 2019, average Global Composite activity index stood at 51.3, virtually unchanged on 51.4 in 3Q 2019. Overall, Global Composite PMI has now declined in 7 consecutive quarters. 

This weakness in the Global economic activity is traceable also to BRIC economies.

Brazil’s Composite PMI has fallen from 52.0 in 3Q 2019 to 51.5 in 4Q 2019. Things did improve, however, on the annual average basis, 2018 Composite PMI was at 49.6, and in 2019 the same index averaged 51.4. 

Russia Composite PMI has moved up markedly in 4Q 2019, thanks to booming reading for Services PMI. Russia Composite index rose to 52.7 in 4Q 2019 from 51.0 in 3Q 2019. reaching its highest level in 3 quarters. However, even this robust reading was not enough to move the annual average for 2019 (52.3) to the levels seen in 2018 (54.1). In other words, overall economic activity, as signaled by PMIs, has been slowing in 2019 compared to 2018.

China Composite PMI stood at 52.6 in 4Q 2019, up on 51.5 in 3Q 2019, rising to the highest level in 7 consecutive quarters. However, 2019 average reading was only 51.7 compared to 2018 reading of 52.2, indicating that a pick up in the Chinese economy growth indicators in 4Q 2019 was contrasted by weaker growth over 2019 overall. 

India Composite PMI remained statistically unchanged in 3Q 2019 (52.1) and 4Q 2019 (52.0). On the annual average basis, 2018 reading of 52.5 was marginally higher than 2019 reading o 52.2. 

In 4Q 2019, all BRIC economies have outperformed Global Composite PMI indicator, although Brazil was basically only a notch above the Global Composite PMI average. In 2019 as a whole, China, Russia and India all outperformed Global Composite index activity, with Brazil trailing behind.

7/7/19: 2Q 2019 BRIC PMIs: The Bad, The Ugly, and The Uglier Still

BRIC PMIs for June are out and with them we have 2Q 2019 figures. And the story they tell is two-fold:

• Fold 1: There is an ongoing Global-scale slowdown in the economy that is broad, sharp and testing the waters of a mild recession approaching
• Fold 2: The BRICs are barely providing any upside support to the Global momentum.

Take Manufacturing:

This is simply the 'Uglier' side of the ugly. Global Manufacturing PMI hit 49.8 in 2Q 2019 - statistically, zero growth level, nominally - a manufacturing recession ward, albeit a very shallow one. More ominously, we now 6 consecutive quarters into declining growth reading. Now, per BRICS: Brazil at 50.9 (holding somewhat just above the water line, but down from 53.0 in 1Q 2019); Russia is at 50.1 - basically zero growth and down from 51.3 in 1Q 2019; India is at 52.2, down from 53.6 in 1Q 2019, and China is at 49.9, having delivered four quarters of statistically zero growth readings. So BRIC GDP shares-weighted Manufacturing PMI is at 50.6, which means the overall Manufacturing sector is barely staying afloat on the choppy growth seas. In 1Q 2019 the same was 51.0 and the 2q 2019 reading is at the lowest level since 3Q 2016.

Services sector posted Global PMI at 52.1. Which sounds like 'growth, but is hardly impressive. 2Q 2019 was the weakest since 4Q 2016, and marks the fourth quarter of shrinking PMI readings.

BRICs: Why, they are barely staying above the Global trend. Brazil is in a statistical Services recession at 48.6 in 2Q 2019, the worst reading in 3 consecutive quarters; Russia posted Services PMI of 51.4 in 2Q 2019 - seemingly respectable, but the lowest reading since 4Q 2015; China Services PMI is at 53.1, basically unchanged on 53.0 in 1Q 2019 (about the only 'british' spot); and India is at 50.3, the lowest for any quarter since 1Q 2018.

All of which means that the Composite activity index reading is a bit of debacle:

Overall, Global Composite PMI fell to 51.5 in 1Q 2019, the lowest reading since 2Q 2016. Dynamics are also bad: Global Composite PMI has now declined every quarter since its local peak of 54.2 in 1Q 2018. And the BRICs are in the same boat: Brazil Composite is at 49.3, the lowest reading in 3 quarters; Russia Composite at 51.2, the lowest in 13 quarters; India Composite at 51.4 is the slowest growth signal in seven quarters; and China is at 51.4 for the lowest reading in 8 quarters.

Not a pretty sight... 

3/5/19: Global and BRIC Manufacturing PMIs signal ongoing growth declines

The latest data, released this week by Markit under their PMI headings, shows that manufacturing sector global slowdown has entered into its 6th consecutive quarter in the first month of 2Q 2019. In line with this momentum, BRIC economies overall, with exception (for now) of Russia and China have also posted slower growth in April compared to 1Q 2019 average:

Russia posted slightly more upbeat growth in April at 51.8 compared to 1Q 2019 average growth of 51.3. China has barely bounced back into growth in April 2019 compared to 1Q 2019 reading of 49.7. Brazil slowdown was marked, with PMI for Manufacturing down from 53.0 in 1Q 2019 to 51.5 in April, while India suffered an even more significant fall-off in activity, with Manufacturing PMI falling from 1Q 2019 average of 53.6 to April reading of 51.8.

Global Manufacturing sector PMI averaged 50.7 in 1Q 2019, and in April it fell to 50.3, statistically implying zero growth in the sector. One has to go back to 3Q 2013 to see a reading at or below April 2019 levels. 

3/10/18: Global PMIs tanked in 3Q 2018

While Markit continue to publish Services and Composite PMIs for BRIC economies, here is a quick update on Global PMIs for 3Q 2018 which are now out:

• Global Manufacturing PMI averaged 52.5 in 3Q 2018, down from 53.2 in 2Q 2018. This is the lowest reading for the index in 8 quarters, signalling slowest growth in global manufacturing sector since 3Q 2016. It also marks the second consecutive quarter of declining Global Manufacturing PMI.
• Global Services PMI averaged 53.5 in 3Q 2018, the lowest reading in 7 consecutive quarters, matching the lowest point in 8 consecutive quarters. This marked the first quarter of declines in Services sector activity, and the drop was sharp: down from 54.2 in 2Q 2018.
• Global Composite PMI averaged 53.3 in 3Q 2018, down from 54.0 in 2Q 2018 and 54.2 in 1Q 2018, marking the lowest reading in 8 consecutive quarters. The slowdown in the overall global economic indictor has also been sharp in 3Q 2018 and most of this slowdown took place in August and September.

Overall, these are not great signs for the global economy. 

For BRIC Manufacturing PMIs analysis for 3Q 2018, see here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/10/11018-bric-manufacturing-pmi-dips-down.html. BRIC Services PMIs and BRIC Composite PMIs analysis is to follow, so stay tuned.

9/8/18: BRIC PMIs trace Global economy's slowdown at the start of 3Q

Recent PMIs for BRIC show a weaker start to 3Q 2018, in line with moderating growth outlook for the global economy:

In summary, Composite PMIs for July show Russia, China and Brazil underperforming global composite index, with India being the only BRIC economy trending in line with the global economy.  Much of this dynamic was down to Manufacturing sector, with Services supporting global economy to the upside:

The biggest downside momentum came from Russia's sub-50 reading in Manufacturing, followed by significant decline in growth activity in the sector in Brazil, and a more moderate slowdown in China:

For Russia, weaknesses in Manufacturing sector, for now offset by strengths in Services, are unpleasant reminders that the economy is still fundamentally on near-zero growth path, despite early 2018 hopes for 1.9-2 percent growth projections. For China, there are growing signs of the adverse impact of Trade War with the U.S. taking their toll on growth and cost dynamics.

3/2/17: Global Composite PMI signals improving growth in January

Over the last four months, I have been suggesting that markets participants pay close attention to Global PMIs, and in particular to the emerging signals of firming global economic growth. January 2017 figures did not disappoint on this front.

I covered Manufacturing PMI yesterday in a post available here.

Today, we got the reading for Services and Composite data. Both printed 53.9, which marks statistically significant expansion and a rise on 4Q 2016 figures, suggesting that global growth is still accelerating. Crucially, new orders are continuing to rise as well.

Per Markit: “The J.P.Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index… posted 53.9 in January, its best reading since March 2015 and up from 53.6 in December. The index has now signalled expansion for 52 consecutive months.”

One caveat is that China data is not included in both Manufacturing and Services PMI readings. But, As shown here: China Manufacturing PMI posted lacklustre performance in January, barely staying above 50.0 level.

Again, quitting Markit, “growth of global service sector business activity improved to a 17-month high in January, offsetting a minor easing in the rate of expansion of manufacturing production.”

Geographically, “the acceleration in the rate of increase in all-industry output was led by the US and Russia. US growth was the sharpest since November 2015, while Russia registered its quickest expansion of economic activity for over eight-and-a-half years. The euro area saw output growth steady at December’s 67-month record, while rates of increase slowed in Japan and the UK. India and Brazil both saw all-industry activity decline at the start of 2017.”

“Global employment rose again in January, with the pace of job creation matching December’s 19-month record.” Again, geographically, employment “…increased in the US, the eurozone, Japan, the UK, Russia and India, but fell further in Brazil.”

Crucially for monetary policy forward, inflation ticked up as well.

Overall, Global Manufacturing PMI remained at rather robust levels of 52.7 in January 2017, comparable to those attained at the end of 4Q 2016 and well above the 51.4 average for the last 4 years. Global Services PMI ended January 2017 at 53.9, which is above already robust 53.5 recorded in 4Q 2016 and above the 4-year average of 53.4. At 53.9, Global Composite PMI is slightly ahead of 4Q 2016 levels (53.6) and is well above 53.0 average for the last 5 years. Thus, across both sectors, the global economic expansion appears to be improving to the upside at the start of 1Q 2017.

Analysis of BRIC Services and Composite PMIs coming up as soon as we have China data.

2/2/17: Global Manufacturing PMI Continues to Signal Potential Growth Recovery in January

Market published Global Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for January, showing that growth conditions in global manufacturing at the start of 2017 have matched those prevailing in December 2016, with both months posting a PMI reading of 52.7, which is:

1. Statistically above 50.0 (signalling statistically significant expansion in the sector);
2. Statistically above 51.4 - the long run average; and
3. Current reading ties December 2016 reading for a 34-month high and 51st consecutive month of above 50.0 readings.

Some important details from Markit release are:

• “The improvement in business conditions was led by the investment goods sector, where the PMI rose to its highest level in over five-and-a-half years.” This suggests that the globally depressed capex cycle might be turning to the upside, finally, after years of subdued capita investment by companies;
• “The improvement at consumer goods producers was slightly better than that seen in December, while growth in the intermediate goods category lost some momentum.” This suggests that current outlook is for improved short run consumer demand, but a moderation in previous expectations about future growth in demand might be afoot. 
• Growth was concentrated in the US, the euro area and the UK, but slowed in Japan. South Korea, Brazil, Turkey and Greece were “the only nations to register contractions.”
• “…the rate of growth in new business intakes accelerated to a two-and-a-half year high. Part of the increase in demand reflected stronger international trade flows, as new export orders rose at the quickest pace since September 2014.” This fed into “a further increase in outstanding business during January. Backlogs of work expanded for the eighth consecutive month, with growth registered across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods categories.” This is consistent with my view - expressed earlier - that going forward, expectations of future growth in final demand might be moderating.

Additionally, “the latest release sees the launch of a new index tracking business sentiment – the Future Output Index – that is based on a question asking companies if they expect output to be higher, the same or lower in 12 months’ time. The start of 2017 saw positive sentiment climb to a 19- month high, with improvements seen in the US, the euro area, Japan, the UK, India, Brazil and Russia.” I would not hold my breath for the robustness of this indicator for quite some time, as we need to see more historical data building up to assess just what exactly does it tell us about the sector activity.

As the chart above clearly shows, we are only inching toward late-2009-mid 2011 levels of activity, although we have now breached 2015-mid-2016 doldrums trend.

Overall, the data is a welcome news for the global growth, but we will have to wait and see for China and Indonesia Manufacturing PMIs to come out to see more robust picture of what is happening in global trade and manufacturing trends. We also need to see if the current levels of growth can be successfully breached to the upside in February-March. January is, overall, a challenging month to base one’s assessment for broader 1Q economic performance signals due to shorter range of working days and lags from December feeding into January numbers.

7/1/16: BRIC Brake on Global Growth

As I noted in analysis of the BRIC Composite PMIs (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/6116-bric-composite-pmis-december.html) December turned out to be another month when BRIC economic fortunes were weighing on the global economy.

As a reminder, overall 4Q 2015 BRIC Composite Activity Index stood at 99.0, down on 99.2 in 3Q 2015 and on 102.1 recorded in 4Q 2014.

Sectorally, both Services and Manufacturing Aggregate Indices for BRIC group of countries continued to trend down - a trend now running uninterrupted since the start of 2H 2010 and accelerating since 2H 2014 for Manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Global Composite PMI slipped in 3Q and 4Q 2015 below longer trend (that is still gently upward).

Chart below illustrates:

4/1/16: Global manufacturing weighted down by BRICs in December

According to Markit, “The global manufacturing sector ended 2015 on a disappointing note, with the rates of expansion in production and new orders both slowing in December. At 50.9, down from 51.2 in November, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI …fell to a three-month low. The average PMI reading over 2015 as a whole was below those registered in both of the prior two years.”

The new sub-sector data “covering consumer, intermediate and investment goods producers…signalled that the slowdown highlighted by the headline Global Manufacturing PMI during
December mainly reflected weaker expansion at investment goods producers and a further contraction in the intermediate goods sector. In contrast, growth accelerated slightly at consumer goods producers.”

Much of the deterioration is, apparently down to emerging markets weaknesses. “The end of 2015 saw the downturn in emerging market manufacturing continue, with PMI indices for China,
India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Malaysia all in sub-50.0 contraction territory. Although the expansion in developed nations continued, growth slowed (on average) to an eight-month low.”

Note: I covered Manufacturing PMIs for BRIC economies in an earlier post here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/4116-bric-manufacturing-pmis-december.html

You can see the ‘weighting’ effect in the chart here based on quarterly data:

And a summary table for Global Manufacturing PMI from Markit here:

Per Markit:

• Growth rates fell to a 38-month low in the US
• Growth eased to three-month low in the UK, 
• Growth held steady in Japan, and 
• Growth “accelerated to a 20-month high in the euro area.” 

Net outrun: global manufacturing has ended 2015 an inch closer to zero growth / stagnation point and certainly nowhere near the levels of growth consistent with amplification in global economic growth rates forward.

4/8/15: Global Manufacturing PMI Signals Faltering Growth in July

Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged in July compared to June at 51.0, signalling weak growth and stalled growth momentum. Overall, activity is now at "its joint-weakest reading during the past two years".

Per Markit: "Underpinning the increase in output was further growth in new order inflows. However, the pace of improvement in new business slowed as new export orders declined for the second time in the past three months. New export business decreased in China, Germany, France, the UK, Taiwan, South Korea, Greece, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, Russia and Brazil, and was little-changed in the US and Malaysia."

You can read more on this in my coverage of BRIC Manufacturing PMIs here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/08/4815-bric-manufacturing-pmis-july-2015.html

7/9/2014: What do PMIs Signal on Global Growth?..

Here's an interesting point raised recently by @phil_waechter: the global growth that is supposed to accelerate in H2 2014 is really not happening and worse, compositionally, the prospect of such growth is heavily reliant on one country's fortunes: the U.S.

Things are not pretty, but they are not as ugly as the above chart shows, at least in the short run of the last 2 months. Here are the summaries for global growth by index:

In Services, there is weakening growth, but still levels are relatively robust, with New Business accelerating, marginally, while Future Activity expectations moderating.

And in Manufacturing, there is marginally stronger growth, with new orders slipping by just 0.1 points.

Composite indicator shows some pressures to the upside in growth forward: backlogs indicator showing a rise, new orders similarly showing some very modest support up.

Emerging markets are generally improving in August, with exception of Brazil. Russia breaking downward trend, but this remains to be confirmed in September-October before any serious turnaround can be called. South Africa is weak, Brazil weak, although net is still more positive than in May-July:

So the longer term trends are weak, when it comes to the likes of the euro area, but are reasonably ok. The real weakness is in the euro area. Here is the summary of just how much the euro area performance across all PMIs is weighing down on the global growth:

Just another reminder, this is supposedly the European Century...

2/4/2014: Global Manufacturing PMI in Two Charts: March 2014

Having posted on Irish Manufacturing PMI (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/04/242014-irish-manufacturing-pmi-march.html) here are two interesting charts plotting PMIs for a number of countries. Both via BusinessInsider:

and

4/1/2013: Major economies PMIs for December 2012

Global PMI snapshot:

Previously covered:

• Asia (ex-China) here
• Netherlands here
• Euro area here
• Ireland here

Some top line performance for the global economy:

Manufacturing:

• US Manufacturing: December 50.7 from November 49.5 - statistically not significant as above 50 reading, so a shallow positive, with a swing of 1.2 ppts being a good indicator of gradual strengthening. New orders static at 50.3 and employment gains at 52.7 in December against 48.4 (contraction) in November.
• Germany: 46.0 in December a deterioration on already abysmal 46.8 reading in November. Clear contraction territory. 
• France: 44.6 in December after 44.5 in November - an outright recession.
• Italy: 46.7 in December on 45.1 in November - falling off the cliff at a slightly reduced rate.
• UK: 51.4 in December on 49.2 in November - expansion, albeit moderate in December.
• Japan: 45.0 in December, worse than already recessionary November reading of 46.5.
• China: 50.6 in December, unchanged on November - both not statistically significantly different from 50.0. Employment continues to contract: 49.0 in December on 48.7 in November, while New Orders are growing at 51.2 in both months - modest growth rate.
• Brazil: 51.1 in December on 52.2 in November - signalling slowdown in already weak growth in November.

So Manufacturing sector is pretty ugly.

Services:

• US: to 56.1 in December from 54.7 in November, confirming strong growth trend. Employment at 56.3 in December - a robust uplift, on top of relatively static 50.3 in November. New Orders rising to blistering 59.3 in December from 58.1 in November.
• Euro area: to 47.8 in December from 46.7 in November - both signalling contraction
• Germany: bucking the trend for the euro area to 52.0 in December from 49.7 in November, with now moderate expansion
• In contrast to Germany, France went deeper into contraction territory: 45.2 in December against 45.8 in November.
• Italy matched France and raised: 44.6 in December (a depression-level reading) from 46.0 in November (a recession reading).
• UK stumbled: 48.9 in December (mild contraction) against 50.2 (effectively flat) in November.
• China: robust 56.1 in December on foot of strong 55.6 in November
• Brazil slightly less impressive, but stil positive: 53.5 in December relative to 52.5 in November.

So Services are all over the shop with the euro area remaining the Ugly of the Bad.