9/5/21: COVID19: U.S. vs EU27 comparatives

 

Updating data for the U.S. - EU27 comparatives for the pandemic through this week (week 17):

Table above reflects several major features of the recent data evolution for the Covid19 pandemic in the U.S. and the EU27, also highlighted in the charts below:

• Firstly, total number of new cases has diverged in recent weeks. Starting with week 7 of 2021, the U.S. cases continued to fall, while the EU27 cases entered a new upward trend. The new wave - Wave 3 - formed in Europe, whilst the U.S. managed to escape development of Wave 4.
• For eleven of the last consecutive weeks, the EU27 cases significantly exceeded those in the U.S.
• As of Week 12, 2021: EU27's Wave 3 has peaked and we have now witnessed five continuous weeks of declines from the peak, although the EU27 case numbers still substantially exceed those in the U.S.
• There is only one attributable difference between the two countries that can explain this divergence: vaccinations rates. In fact, whilst the U.S. response to the pandemic in its first 10 months has been an unmitigated disaster, the EU27's unroll of the vaccines has been a Trumpesque-level failure of its own. 

As the result of the above factors, EU27 trends in deaths numbers are equally concerning:

• The EU27 started 2021 with a significantly lower per-capita death rate than the U.S. 
• At the start of January, as reported on this blog, adjusting for age differences and population size differences, the U.S. pandemic was associated with 139,188 excess deaths compared to the EU27.
• At the end of this week, this gap was down to 87,598.
• Put differently, President Trump's policies were responsible for excess deaths amounting to roughly 1/3 of the total deaths sustained in the U.S. over the period of 2020. Since the start of 2021, EU27 policies on vaccinations are responsible for closing this gap by almost 40 percent.
• The above comparatives for vaccination roll out failure effects are conservative. The EU27 has suffered Wave 3 of the pandemic amidst strict and wide-ranging lockdowns, not comparable to the U.S. measures deployed over the same period of time. 
• In fact, Week 17/2021 U.S. deaths counts are now lowest for any week since week 27/2020. In contrast, the Eu27 deaths are currently the lowest since week 45/2020.

Tragically, for the EU27, European rates of mortality from the virus have been running above those in the U.S. every week since Week 43/2020, as shown in the chart below:

In fact, as the chart above illustrates, EU27 is yet to see the return to its lowest recorded mortality rate of 0.014 set in Week 37/2020, while the U.S. has been running below that rate on-trend over the last five weeks.

Chart next show the dramatic difference in mortality per case in the U.S. and the EU27 (vertical axis) against the world-wide mortality (horizontal axis), without adjusting for age and population size differences (a note of caution: regression lines are only indicative, at best):

In summary, therefore, the EU27 is paying a high price for its utter failure to unroll vaccinations at scale. The U.S. performance, starting with February-March, has been exemplary compared to the European policy approach, although a lot of the gains made so far are:

1. Subject to forward uncertainty (U.S. weekly statistics have been exceptionally volatile and hard to interpret); and
2. As of yet, not enough to erase the scars left by the Trump Administration's mismanagement of the early stages of the pandemic.

9/5/21: COVID19: BRIICS

 Updating data for BRIICS for Covid19 pandemic through Week 17 of 2021 (current week):

Almost half of all cumulated cases within the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) group are now in India (above) and almost half of all deaths are in Brazil (below).

The pandemic dynamics have turned decisively in recent weeks: in terms of new cases, India dominates the trend up, with all other BRIICS showing amelioration in the pandemic:

Similarly, for we weekly death counts:

China data remains utterly unbelievable and hard to trust.

Summary table of recent developments:

India's pandemic dynamics are shocking, horrific and show no signs of abating. This is a humanitarian disaster that requires help from the rest of the world - help that has been coming in too-little and too-late.

9/5/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating graphs for Europe and EU27 pandemic data through week 17 of 2021:

Some good news with a shade of a reality check:

• New cases are off their Wave 3 highs, solidly so
• Current case counts are still above Wave 2 trough and well ahead of where they were at the end of Summer 2020.

Similar, but a bit more benign trend in weekly death counts:

Good news 'part 3': mortality rates are declining, again:

While the progress on vaccinations across Europe has been less impressive than desired, it now appears that two factors are driving the end of the Wave 3 of this pandemic:

1. Vaccinations roll-outs, and
2. Cumulated effects of recent (and in some countries still ongoing) restrictions.

Let's hope these trends remain persistent in weeks ahead and the new variants do not show up with resistance to vaccinations. 

8/5/21: COVID19: Most impacted countries

 Covering data through this week (week 17) of 2021 for world's most impacted countries.

First: most impacted countries by the rate of infections and by mortality:

There is only one large country (population > 100 million) that is listed in both tables: the U.S. 

Now, a table of countries with more than 1 million cases:

The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer in the group of 28 countries with more than 1 million cases, when measured across all three metrics: infections per 1 million of population, deaths per 1 million of population and deaths per 1,000 of diagnosed cases. 

Looking at major countries groups in the context of the above table:

Finally, looking at the most impacted countries from the point of their relative contributions to global totals for cases and deaths:

8/5/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

 Updating worldwide data for the Covid19 pandemic through week 17 of 2021 (current week):

We exited Wave 3 that started Week 34, 2020, peaked in Week 1, 2021, and bottomed out in Week 7 of 2021.

Since Week 8 of 2021, we are seeing growth of a new wave, Wave 4

The latest levels of new infections are now the highest in the history of the pandemic and in the last two weeks of the data, world case counts are in excess of the Wave 3 peak levels.

Starting with Week 8 of 2021 we are witnessing a new, Wave 4, of the pandemic emerging. The latest weekly death counts as of Weeks 14, 16 and 17, 2021, rank as 7th, 6th and 5th highest in the history of the pandemic.

Good news: Recent decreases in mortality rate are most likely attributable to three key drivers: (1) earlier detection of cases due to improved testing; (2) younger demographics of those with confirmed infections; and (3) improved treatments in the earlier stages of the disease.

The slight increase in mortality through week 12 of 2021 appears to have stabilized and reversed in the most recent 5 weeks.

Summary table above shows significant improvement in the pandemic dynamics in the U.S. and more modest, but still sizable improvements in the EU27. BRIICS and Asia are showing worsening pandemic dynamics, and worldwide data broadly reflects this development.

While U.S. and EU27 numbers are encouraging, overall picture of the pandemic remains extremely worrying: worldwide, contagion is still raging unabated and those countries showing strong improvements in vaccinations and reducing contagion spread remain vulnerable to spillovers of new variants and new infections from the rest of the world. 

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