30/11/2011: Live Register for November: Monthly Rates of Change

In a follow-up on the previous post, here are monthly changes in Live Register for the duration of the crisis. It is worth noting that Live Register volatility has markedly improved during the last 23 months. Standard deviation in monthly changes in LR for the entire pre-crisis history is 6,935, for the period of the crisis (January 2008-present) it stands at 7,511 (statistically significantly above the pre-crisis levels), but since January 2010 it stands at 2,587 (estimate is small-sample adjusted). Historical STDEV is 7,723, indistinct from the crisis period volatility.

So that chart:

20/11/2011: Live Register - November

Live Register continued a parade of weaker Irish economy performance indicators for Q4 2011. Here are the headlines and updates.

November LR-implied unemployment rate edged up by another 10bps to 14.5% getting closer to 12mo high of 14.6% back in December 2010.

In absolute seasonally-adjusted terms, there are now 448,600 people on LR, up 1,700 month on month from October 2011. Year on year, LR rose 3,700 or +0.83%, back in October, year on year LR stood at 300 down on October 2010 (-0.07%). 3mo MA through November 2011 is 0.13% below 3mo MA through November 2010. In 3 months through November 2011, LR posted zero cumulative change, which contrasts with a decline of 2,200 over 3 months through November 2010 and 4,500 increase in LR for 3 months through August 2011. In 6 months through November 2011 LR rose 4,500, while in January-November LR rose 2,500.

Overall, seasonally adjusted LR number currently stands at the second highest level in history (same level was also attained in August this year and the highest level of 449,400 was attained in September 2010.

Numbers of casual and part-time workers rose once again from 85,029 in October to 86,612 in November or 1,583 mom (+1.86%). Year on year the number of part-time workers rose 6,404 (+7.98%). 3mo MA through November 2011 is up 8.79% year on year.

percentage of non-Irish nationals on LR rose from 17.43% in october to 17.58% in November as decline of 1,347 Irish nationals on LR mom was offset by an increase of 482 non-Irish nationals over the same period. Year on year, numbers of non-nationals on LR is up 737 or 0.99% while number of Irish nationals is up 3,828 or +1.09%. However, last 3mo saw an increase of 0.051% in non-Irish nationals on LR and an increase of 0.033% for Irish nationals.

Per CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in November 2011 was 179,890. The number of male long term claimants increased by 19,939 (+18.1%) in the year to November 2011, while the comparable increase for females was 9,624 (+24.1%) giving an overall annual increase of 29,563 (+19.7%) in the number of long term claimants. This rate of increase in long term claimants has been slowing through the year with an annual increase of 57,597 (55.9%) having been recorded in January 2011." I am quite puzzled by CSO's apparent selective interpretation of this data, which appears to present the "positive" side of statistics. The slowdown in the rate of increases in long term claimants appears to be in line with overall slowdown in the rate of increase in the series for unemployment. January 2011 transition rates referenced Q3 2009-Q4 2009 net signees - of which there were, you guessed it, 25,400. But November 2011 transition rates are referencing net signees for Q2 2010-Q3 2010 - of which there were 10,200. So some better analysis would have done here for CSO.

29/11/2011: Retail Sector Activity Index: October 2011, Ireland

In the previous post I detailed the latests retail sales stats for Ireland. Here, I am updating my own Index of Retail Sector Activity - a weighted average of value of sales, volume of slaes and leading consumer confidence indicator. The index reflects changes in employment and profit margins conditions in the sector.

Table below summarizes the changes in all three components, and charts below illustrate:

A large jump ion consumer confidence in October (to 63.7 from September reading of 53.3) is the core driver of improvement in the  overall Index od Retail Sector Activity, which now stands at 102.2 - above the expansion level of 100. This means that we can expect a small uplift in retail sector activity in months ahead, but this uplift can manifest itself through improved volumes of sales (value static, so margins declining) or improved value of sales (inflation) or both (more demand-driven uplift).

As charts below show, RSAI still remains consistent with actual retail sales volume and value performance at below the levels consistent with medium-term consumer confidence reading:

29/11/2011: Retail Sales for October: Ireland

Irish retail sales continue on downward trend, with no respite.  I will be updating my exclusive Retail Sector Activity Index in the follow up post (so stay tuned), but here are the core headlines:

• The volume of retail sales index rose by 0.1% in October 2011 mom but is down 3.8% yoy. The volume of sales is now down 21.67% on peak. The index reading of 91.1 in October compares against 91.3 3mo AM and 92.1 6mo MA. In 2010 index average was 93.3 and 2011 to-date average is 92.0.
• There was no change in the value of retail sales on a monthly basis, however the annual change was -3.7%. The value index is now 25.6% below its peak. 3mo MA is at 86.7 against current reading of 86.5 and 6mo MA is at 87.5. 2010 annual average is 88.8 against 2011 average to-date of 87.7.

Charts below illustrate:

Focusing on core sales (ex-Motors):

• The volume of retail sales decreased by 0.2% in October 2011 mom, while there was an annual decrease of 3.6%. Core retail sales are now down 16.1% on the peak and 3mo MA is at 98.4 against October reading of 98.2, 6mo MA is at 98.8 and 2010 average is at 102.25 against 2011 average to-date of 99.5.
• There was a monthly decrease of 0.1% in the value of core retail sales and an annual decrease of 2.8%, with the value index now 20.6% below the peak. 3mo MA is 94.3, against current October reading of 94.2, and 6mo MA is 94.7. 2010 annual average is 97.6 against 2011 average to-date of 95.5.

Charts below illustrate:

So we are now in month 49 of core retail sales below pre-crisis peaks in both value and volume terms and no sustained bounce in sight. One can only wonder how on earth we still have functioning retailers left.

In October, Books, Newspapers & Stationery (-2.8%), Department Stores (-1.9%) and Electrical Goods (-1.7%) were amongst the categories that showed month-on-month decreases in the volume of retail sales. But have a closer look: seasonally adjusted sales excluding motors, fuel, bars and food are down 1.0% mom and 6.6% yoy in value and down 0.8% mom and 5.3% yoy in volume. So, basically, everything we buy that cannot be substituted for purchases in the Northern Ireland (though motors and food can, with some caveats) has tanked.

And in case you wondered: here's a chart showing annual rates of change in volume of sales for Ireland v EU27 and EA17

Clearly, things are turning around...

28/11/2011: Updated data for 2007-2010 Government Debt: Ireland

The CSO issued today updated - revised - figures for General Government Debt for Ireland. here's the core changes:

As you can see, the error due to the DofF double counting has been now rectified and the adjusted 2010 GGD now stands at €144,269 million. This, to remind you, does not include Nama liabilities, but it does include the promissory notes issued to Anglo & INBS. Table below details holdings of the Irish Government debt (as of May 2011):

28/11/2011: Employment in Irish economy: Q3/Q2 2011

The previous post (here) focused on the latest data for earnings across Irish economy, covering data through Q3 2011. Here, I provide the latest stats on employment numbers. Please note, CSO reports these only for Q2 2011 the latest, but sub-division of data for public sector is provided through Q3 2011.

Here are the core data points for Q2 2011

• In Q2 2011, there were 195,900 employed in Industry, down 1.36% yoy and up 0.82% qoq. The number is down 14.49% on Q3 2008 (third steepest rate of decline) despite the fact that industry is experiencing a pronounced exports boom.
• Construction sector employment is at 65,600 in Q2 2011, up 1.55% qoq, down 10.63% yoy and down 51.44% on Q3 2011 (the steepest drop of all series, and also the sharpest decline yoy).
• Wholesale & retail; repairs to vehicles and motorcycles sector employment stood at 276,600 in Q2 2011, down 1.18% yoy, up 2.29% qoq and down 11.71% on Q3 2008.
• Transportation and storage employment was at 65,700 in Q2 2011, up 0.77% qoq, up 6.31% yoy and down 5.06% on Q3 2008.
• Accommodation & food services employment was at 113,600, up 4.60% qoq,. down 9.84% yoy and down 24.06% on Q3 2011 (second sharpest contraction of all sectors on 2008 and also the second sharpest decline in yoy terms).
• Information & communication employed 53,400 in Q2 2011, up 5.12% qoq, down 2.73% yoy and down 10.40% on Q3 2008.
• Financial, insurance & real estate employment is at 91,000, up 3.88% qoq, down 1.09% yoy and down just 5.01% on Q3 2008, presumably they are selling more homes and financing more loans (of course, IFSC continues to perform strongly, in contrast to domestic services that are running excessive employment against continued business losses, to appease their largest shareholder - the Government).
• Professional, scientific & technical services are employing 72,100 in Q2 2011, dow 2.44% qoq, down 1.37% yoy and down 12.92% on Q3 2011.
• Administrative & support services employed 79,200 in Q2 2011, up 5.18% qoq, up 7.03% yoy and down 12% on Q3 2008.
• Public administration & defence employment stood at 112,100 in Q2 2011, down 5.72% qoq, down 6.74% yoy and down 6.97% on Q3 2008. This category posted the third sharpest decline yoy. It is also worth noting that figures for public sector reported here include census employees., although this distorts Q2 2011 data, but not Q3 2011 (as reported below).
• Education employment stood at 131,400 in Q2 2011, down 1.35% qoq, down 2.23% yoy and up 1.94% on Q3 2008.
• Human health and social work sector employment was 219,400 in Q2 2011, up 1.95% yoy, up 3.49% qoq and up 5.43% on Q3 2008.

Charts below illustrate:

Chart below summarizes Q2 2011 differences by two core sectors:

• Public sector employment rose to 404,300 in Q2 2011 up 0.02%qoq and up 0.55% yoy, but down 2.11% on Q3 2008.
• Private sector employment stood at 1,118,300 in Q2 2011, up 1.60% qoq, but down 2.60% yoy and down 15.43% on Q3 2008.
• Ratio of private sector workers to public sector wrokers has egnerally declined during the last 3 years, but improved slightly qoq in Q2 2011.

Chart below summarizes changes in employment for Q2 2011 compared to Q3 2008 listed above

CSO provides Q3 2011 data for employment in subsectors of the public sector and these are shown below compared to Q3 2008. This data is netted out for temporary census jobs that were recorded in Q2 2011, so no distortion there.

 On thing that stands out in the above. Ex-semi-states (-5.74%) and with semi-states (-5.78%) jobs losses in the public sector have been shallower in Q3 2011 than in private sector (for which we only have Q2 2011 data so far showing decline of 15.43% on Q3 2008). Even in the worst impacted Regional Bodies category, employment losses at -12.08% have been less severe than those in the private sector.