10/1/16: Crisis Contagion from Advanced Economies into BRIC

New paper available: Gurdgiev, Constantin and Trueick, Barry, Crisis Contagion from Advanced Economies into Bric: Not as Simple as in the Old Days (January 10, 2016). 

Forthcoming as Chapter 11 in Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery, edited by Constantin Gurdgiev, Liam Leonard & Alejandra Maria Gonzalez-Perez, Emerald, ASEJ, vol 18; ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1. Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2713335.

Abstract:      

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced economies (AEs) to the emerging markets (EMs). This chapter examines the volatility spillovers from the AEs’ equity markets (Japan, the U.S and Europe) to four key EMs, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The period under study, from 2000 through mid-2014, reflects a time of varying regimes in markets volatility, including the periods of dot.com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Great Recession and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. To estimate volatility cross-linkages between the advanced economies and BRIC, we use multivariate GARCH BEKK model across a number of specifications. We find that, the developed economies weighted return volatility did have a significant impact on volatility across all four of the BRIC economies returns. However, contrary to the consensus view, there was no evidence of volatility spillover from the individual AEs onto BRIC economies with the exception of a spillover from Europe to Brazil. The implied forward-looking expectations for markets volatility had a strong and significant spillover effect onto Brazil, Russia and China, and a weaker effect on India. The evidence on volatility spillovers from the advanced economies markets to emerging markets puts into question the traditional view of financial and economic systems sustainability in the presence of higher orders of integration of the global monetary and financial systems. Overall, data suggests that we are witnessing less than perfect integration between BRIC economies and advanced economies markets to-date.

10/1/6: After the Flood Comes the Tax: European Road to Financial Transactions Tax

New paper, forthcoming as Chapter 10 in Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery, edited by Constantin Gurdgiev, Liam Leonard & Alejandra Maria Gonzalez-Perez, Emerald, ASEJ, vol 18; ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1, titled After the Flood Comes the Tax: European Road to Financial Transactions Tax is now available on my SSRN page: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2713332.

Abstract

This chapter presents the results of the comprehensive literature survey and supportive empirical assessment of the potential impacts of the Financial Transactions Tax recently adopted by the European Commission in response to the significant financial sector misallocations arising from the Global Financial Crisis. A survey of fifty academic articles relating to both Financial Transaction Taxes and Tobin Taxes shows that although a reduction in liquidity can be expected from such taxes, the impacts this will have on volatility and efficiency in a market is less obvious. A regression model quantifying what the possible effect of an introduction of a 0.1% tax on financial transactions would be on trading volumes and levels of volatility in the European equity market confirms the survey results in broader terms. These results can be used to infer that such a tax would likely increase volatility levels but may not have much effect on trading volumes. As a result the proposed tax can be viewed as an exercise in revenue generation but not as a macro-prudential tool for addressing potential future shocks and imbalances within the European financial system.

8/1/16: Some CIS Currencies & Westremlin-ised Brains...

It is a common meme amongst 'Westremlin' analysts on social media to attribute the massive fall in Russian Ruble over the last 15 months to the economic policy failure of Moscow, ignoring two simple facts: oil prices and free floating regime for the Ruble.

How much this ignorance is not a bliss?

Source: BOFIT

Unless your brain has been so solidly 'Westremlin'-ised by some poli-sci department from U.S.ofA, neither Kazakhstan, nor Azerbaijan are run from Moscow... oh an Uzbekistan is producing only 83K bpd of crude, NGPL and other liquids combined (Russia - roughly 11,400K Kazakhstan 1,691K and Azerbaijan roughly 865K).

Arithmetic is simple: more oil produced, heavier devaluation. Excluding, of course, Turkmenistan, where reality never collides with daily life...

8/1/16: Baltic Dry Index Hits Another All-Time Low

Let's give another cheer to the repaired global economy... as Baltic Dry Index continues to plough new record lows: the index fell 6.9% in YTD terms and down 38.54% y/y to close at a new record low of 445.0 (4.17% below Wednesday close).

or on longer time scale:

But never fear - everything has been repaired.

7/1/16: BRIC Brake on Global Growth

As I noted in analysis of the BRIC Composite PMIs (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/6116-bric-composite-pmis-december.html) December turned out to be another month when BRIC economic fortunes were weighing on the global economy.

As a reminder, overall 4Q 2015 BRIC Composite Activity Index stood at 99.0, down on 99.2 in 3Q 2015 and on 102.1 recorded in 4Q 2014.

Sectorally, both Services and Manufacturing Aggregate Indices for BRIC group of countries continued to trend down - a trend now running uninterrupted since the start of 2H 2010 and accelerating since 2H 2014 for Manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Global Composite PMI slipped in 3Q and 4Q 2015 below longer trend (that is still gently upward).

Chart below illustrates:

6/1/16: BRIC Composite PMIs: December

In recent posts, I covered Manufacturing sector PMIs for BRIC economies based on monthly data and Services Sector PMIs here.

Now, let’s consider Composite PMIs for BRIC:


Brazil Composite PMI fell from 44.5 on November to 43.9 in December, As the result, the economy posted 10th consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and since April 2014, Brazil’s economy registered above 50 readings in only three months, with none of these three readings being statically significantly different from 50.0. The last time Brazil’s Composite PMI posted reading statistically consistent with positive growth was in February 2013.

In December, both Manufacturing and Services sectors indicated contracting activity, with Markit concluding that “Private sector activity in Brazil continued to plunge in December as a deepening economic retreat contributed to a further contraction in new business. The seasonally adjusted Composite Output Index fell from 44.5 in November to 43.9 at the year end, pointing to a sharp and stronger rate of reduction. Whereas the downturn in manufacturing production eased (though remained severe), services activity declined at a quicker pace.”

Over 4Q 2015, Brazil Composite PMI averaged 43.7 which is about as bad as the average of 43.6 achieved in 3Q 2015 and much worse than already contractionary average of 49.0 posted in 4Q 2014.


Russian Composite PMI was covered in detail here. Overall, Russia’s Composite index slipped into contraction during December, falling to 47.8, from 50.5 in November, with the decline in output reflected across both manufacturing production and services activity. Overall, Russian economy’s composite PMI averaged 49.1 in 4Q 2015 which is much worse than 50.4 average for 3Q 2015. The data strongly suggests that not only did the economy failed to attain stabilisation, but that growth might have turned more negative in 4Q 2015.


Chinese Composite PMI also signalled declining business activity in December, falling to 49.4 from 50.5 in November. Overall, China posted four months of below 50 readings on Composite PMIs out of the last 5 months and the last time Chinese Composite PMI was consistent with statistically significant growth was in August 2014. In 4Q 2015, Chinese Composite PMI averaged 49.9, which is better than 3Q 2015 average of 49.2, but much worse than the 4Q 2014 average of 51.6. Unlike Russia and Brazil, which posted sub-50 readings across both Manufacturing and Services, China posted sub-40 reading in Manufacturing and above 50 reading in Services, That said, the Services reading was 50.2 - statistically consistent with zero growth - and the second weakest on record (the weakest point was 50.0 in July 2014).


India Composite PMI rose unexpectedly from November’s five-month low of 50.2 to a four-months high of 51.6 in December. Thus, per Markit, the index was “indicative of a rebound in growth of private sector activity. Whereas manufacturing production decreased for the first time since October 2013, services activity increased at an accelerated pace.”

Further per Markit: “Leading services activity to increase was a solid rise in incoming new work, one that was faster than that seen in November. Anecdotal evidence highlighted strengthening demand conditions. Conversely, manufacturing order books decreased, with panellists indicating that demand had been suppressed by the Chennai floods. Across the
private sector as a whole, new business inflows expanded at a faster pace that was, however,
modest.”

4Q 2015 Composite PMI for India stood at 51.5, down from 52.1 in 3Q 2015 and down on 52.2 average for 4Q 2014.


Overall Russia was a negative contributor to the BRIC Composite Activity Index dynamic in December, although overall ex-Russia group performance continued to deteriorate in December faster than in November, as indicated in the chart below:

Note: Composite Activity Index is based on my own calculations weighing BRIC economies by their shares of global GDP. The Index is based on a scale of 100=zero growth.

In 4Q 2015, average Composite Activity Index for BRIC ex-Russia was 96.7 which was marginally better than in 3Q 2015 (86.5) but worse than 101.8 average for 4Q 2014.

Overall 4Q 2015 BRIC Composite Activity Index stood at 99.0, down on 99.2 in 3Q 2015 and on 102.1 recorded in 4Q 2014. 

The chart below shows a clear downward trend in BRIC activity setting on from June 2014 and accelerating since May 2015.

6/1/16: BRIC Services PMIs: December

In recent posts, I covered Manufacturing sector PMIs for BRIC economies based on monthly data (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/4116-global-manufacturing-weighted-down.html) and Russian Manufacturing PMIs based on quarterly data (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/4116-russian-pmi-in-4q-2015-signalling.html).

The net outrun was that global manufacturing has ended 2015 an inch closer to zero growth / stagnation point and certainly nowhere near the levels of growth consistent with amplification in global economic growth rates forward. Most of this trend is down primarily to BRIC economies all of which have seen Manufacturing PMI falling below 50 marker for the first time since March 2009. As noted, this evidence strongly suggests overall continued downward pressures on growth in world’s largest emerging markets.

Now, consider Services PMIs.


Russian Services PMI data was covered in the earlier post here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/4116-russia-services-manufacturing-pmis.html on monthly basis and on quarterly basis here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2016/01/4116-russian-pmi-in-4q-2015-signalling.html. The key takeaway from these was that the data strongly suggests that not only did the economy failed to attain stabilisation, but that growth might have turned more negative in 4Q 2015 in both services and manufacturing sectors.


China Services PMI eased to 50.2 in December, down from 51.2 in the previous month, statistically signalling zero growth in the Services sector. This marks the second-lowest index reading since the series began in November 2005 (behind July 2014). 4Q 2015 average reading stands at 51.1, which is weaker than 3Q reading of 51.9 and well below the 4Q 2014 reading of 53.1.

Per Markit release: “Relatively subdued client demand … was highlighted by only a marginal
increase in new work at service providers that was one of the weakest seen in the series history.”


India Services PMI unexpectedly hit a 10-month high at 53.6 in December up on November’s zero growth 50.1. Overall, Services PMI came in with a strong indication of positive expansion in output across the sector. This pushed 4q 2015 average to 52.3, ahead of 3Q 2015 average of 51.3 and above 51.2 average for 4Q 2014.

Per Markit: “Sub-sector data indicated that output rose in four of the six broad areas of the service economy, the exceptions being Hotels & Restaurants and Transport & Storage. The best performing categories in December were ‘Other Services’ and Financial Intermediation. Leading services activity to increase was a solid rise in incoming new work, one that was faster than
that seen in November. Anecdotal evidence highlighted strengthening demand conditions.” This puts Services dynamics at odds with Manufacturing which posted a significant contraction.


Brazil Services PMI tanked from already abysmal (albeit 8-mo high) 44.5 in November to 43.9 in December, with economy beating “deepening economic retreat”.

Per Markit: “Survey participants commented that worsening economic conditions led new business and activity to decrease. All six monitored subsectors posted lower activity in December, a trend that has been observed throughout the past eight months. The quickest rates of decline were seen in ‘Other Services’, Renting & Business Activities and Post & Telecommunication. Leading services activity to decrease was a further drop in incoming new work. Having accelerated since November, the pace of reduction was among the fastest in the survey history. Panellists indicated that a deepening economic downturn restricted clients’ confidence in committing to new projects.”

4Q 2015 average for Brazil Services PMI now stands at 44.0, up on 3Q 2015 reading of 41.9, but overall so poor, one can’t talk about any improvement at these levels of signalled contraction.


Summary of movements in PMIs for BRIC economies is provided in the table below:

Chart illustrates trends in Services:

I will be covering composite PMIs next, but overall Services PMIs conclusion is that a positive improvement in India was offset by deteriorating growth in China and outright fall-offs in activity in Russia and (much worse) in Brazil. Overall, the data from Services compounds the already rotten data from Manufacturing.

6/1/16: Debt Pile: BRICS v BRIS

When it comes to debt pile for the real economic debt (Government, private non-financial corporates and households), China seems to be in the league of its own:

Per chart above, China’s debt is approaching 250 percent of GDP, with second-worst BRICS performer - Brazil - sitting on a smaller pile of debt closer to 140 percent of GDP. The distance between Brazil and the less indebted economies of South Africa and India is smaller yet - at around 12-14 percentage points. Meanwhile, the least indebted (as of 1Q 2015) BRICS economy - Russia - is nursing a debt pile of just over 90 percent of GDP, and, it is worth mention - the one that is shrinking due to financial markets sanctions.

6/1/16: Irish Manufacturing, Services & Construction PMIs: 4Q 2015

Time to update Irish quarterly PMI readings for 4Q 2015. Please note: the following refer to average PMI readings per quarter as supplied by Markit.

Irish Manufacturing PMI averaged 53.7 in 4Q 2015, down slightly on 54.7 in 3Q 2015 and the lowest quarterly reading since 4Q 2013 (jointly tied for that honour with 1Q 2014). The quarterly average has now declined in every quarter since the period peak in 4Q 2014.  Still, at 53.7 we have rather solid growth signal as is. On y/y basis, Manufacturing PMI is now down 5.1% after falling 2.6% in 3Q 2015 and rising 0.7% in 2Q 2015. 4Q 2015 marks tenth consecutive quarter of above 50.0 readings for the sector, with all of these readings being statistically above 50.0 as well. The trend in growth is down.

Irish Services PMI slipped from 62.6 in 3Q 2015 to 61.8 in 4Q 2015, down 1.3% q/q after posting a 1.4% rise q/q in 3Q 2015. On annual basis, the PMI fell 0.11% having previously risen 0.91% in 3Q 2015 and falling 0.48% in 2Q 2015. This marks 20th consecutive quarter of above 50.0 readings in the sector. In level terms, 61.8 signals robust growth in the sector, so it is a positive signal, albeit over time consistent with quite a bit of volatility and no strongly defined trend.

Irish Construction sector PMI (through November 2015) for 4Q 2015 stood at 55.9, down from, 57.1 in 3Q 2015 and marking the second consecutive quarter of index declines. Q/Q index was down 7.95% in 3Q 2015 and it was also down 2.16% in 4Q 2015. Y/Y, index was up 1.42% in 2Q 2015, down 7.6% in 3Q 2015 and down 12.4% in 4Q 2015. Volatile movements in the series still indicate downward trend in growth in the sector.

Chart above summarises the sub-trends, with Services trending very sluggishly up, while Manufacturing and Construction trending down.

As shown in the chart above, my estimated Composite measure, relating to PMIs (using sectoral weights in quarterly GDP figures) posted moderation in growth rate in 4Q 2015.  Composite Index including construction sector stood at 54.4 in 4Q 2015, down from 55.5 in 3Q 2015, hitting the lowest reading since 3Q 2013. This marks second consecutive quarter of declining Composite Index. Index is now down 1.9% q/q having previously fallen 3.8% q/q in 3Q 2015. In y/y terms, Composite Index was up 0.8% y/y in 2Q 2015, down 3.5% y/y in 3Q 2015 and down 6.52% y/y in 4Q 2015. While levels of Index suggest relatively robust growth in the economy across three key sectors, there is a downward trend in the growth rate over time.

So in the nutshell, Irish PMIs continue to signal robust growth, albeit the rate of growth appears to be slowing down along the new sub-trend present from 1Q 2015 on.

Two charts to highlight relationship between PMI signals and GDP and GNP growth rates (data through 3Q 2015).

6/1/16: It's Christmas Eve... and Ruble is Getting Socks...

Anyone wondering about Ruble's next move from here:

 Source: @Schuldensuehner 

should take a look at the third chart here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/301215-2016-better-be-kinder-to-old.html.

As oil stays around USD35 mark, the duration of slump will be weighing on Ruble, with oil/USDRUB spread compressing on re-valuations of the Russian budget and fiscal position. Current spread appears moderately optimistic to me...

As an aside, c Рождеством!

5/1/16: Debt Pile: Advanced Economies Lead

After some 8 years of crisis and post-crisis deleveraging, one would have expected a significant progress to be achieved in terms of reducing the overall debt piles carried by the world’s most indebted economies.

Alas, the case cannot be made for such improvements. Here is a chart based on the latest BIS data (through 1Q 2015) plotting the distribution of total real economic debt (Government, private non-financial corporates and households) across the main economies:

As the chart above indicates, there are at least 23 economies with debt/GDP ratio in excess of 200 percent, seven economies with debt to GDP ratio close to or above 300 percent and 3 economies with debt to GDP ratio in excess of 300 percent. But the true champs of the debt world are Japan and Ireland, where based on BIS data, debt to GDP ratio is in excess of 375 percent. 

It is worth noting that Germany is the only advanced economy in the chart that has debt/GDP ratio below 200 percent. Of all original Euro area 12 economies, Germany, Austria and Finland are the only three economies with debt/GDP ratio below 250 percent. Six out of top 10 most indebted economies in the chart are Euro area members.

Do note that the above omits local authorities and state bodies debts, so the true extent of debt pile up around the world is significantly larger than that presented in this figure.

5/1/16: What Aggregate R&D Spends Tell Us? Actually... little

In a recent comment on R&D Expenditure across the OECD countries, WEF has referenced Irish data on R&D spending as % of GDP at 1.58% which refers to 2012 full year results.

Which is surprising, given that we now have 2014 data available per Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7092226/9-30112015-AP-EN.pdf/29eeaa3d-29c8-496d-9302-77056be6d586) which puts our R&D spending at 1.55% of GDP in 2014.

Irish GDP in 2014 in current prices terms was 16.07% above Irish GNP. The same gap in 2004 was 17.26%. Which means that adjusting for this gap, Irish R&D expenditure as a share of GNP was 1.38% of GNP in 2004, rising to 1.80% in 2014.

Thus, in 2004, Ireland ranked as 12th country in the EU in terms of R&D expenditure ‘intensity’ by GDP metric, and 11th by GNP metric, both metrics were at exactly the same ranking places in 2014.

Here is a chart showing longer evolution of the R&D expenditure series from OECD:

Overall, Irish R&D expenditures remain below the desired levels in absolute terms, both relative to the GDP and the GNP bases.

Eurostar provides a handy breakdown of R&D spending by origin across Private sector, Government sector, Higher education and non-Profit.

Few things stand out for Ireland:

• As a share of R&D spending, business enterprise sector appears to be carrying its weight in Ireland. 
• Government expenditure on R&D is extremely weak in Ireland, though one has to wonder what on earth can Irish Government research, given the quality of our state institutions.
• Higher education sector R&D spending in Ireland is ranked 20th in the EU - a ranking that is heavily influenced by a massive share of business enterprise spending of total R&D expenditure. 
• Apparently, there is no private non-profit spending whatsoever in Ireland.

Key to the above is, however, the nature of business enterprise spending. Per Government own statistics, in 2012, roughly 300 firms accounted for almost 70% of total R&D expenditure in Ireland. Just 107foreign firms spent more than EUR2 million on R&D per annum in Ireland and these account for 88% of the total R&D spent by MNCs in Ireland, or well over 70% of the total business enterprise R&D spend.

Here’s Finfacts take on the hype: http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028789.shtml.

In other words, stripping out MNCs with their R&D activity booked through Ireland mostly reflective of tax optimisation rather than actual research, one wonders just how much exactly does R&D contribute to our GDP or GNP and just how much of the failures of Irish R&D spending are down to quantum of spend as opposed to quality of spend? Problem is: we do not know. All Government research on the matter, including research by the likes of the OECD (based on Irish Government-supplied data), is probably heavily biased by the insiders dominating analysis.

Take the following two charts from OECD latest report on Science and R&D (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/main-science-and-technology-indicators_2304277x)

So in the first chart, Ireland is above EU and OECD averages in terms of researchers employment intensity, but in second chart, Ireland is below EU and OECD averages in terms of R&D output intensity (by one metric).

Which begs a question - is this difference down to quality of researchers or down to type of research (e,g. non-patentable fields of sciences and humanities) or down to classification by, say MNCs, of some business & admin personnel as research personnel for tax purposes and to create a smokescreen of ‘organic’ as opposed to tax channeling activity in Ireland?

Who knows… But in 2011, per OECD data, 71.1% of total R&D expenditure by enterprises in Ireland accrued to foreign affiliates (the MNCs).  Subsequently, we stopped reporting such data. It is worth noting that this does not include companies that redomiciled into Ireland via tax inversions, adding which to the pile would probably shift this number closer to 90 percent.

In simple terms, aggregate spending figures tell us very little as to the nature of Irish R&D activities or their effectiveness. The real data is being hidden from our view by commercial secrecy that conveniently obscures just what exactly is happening in the economy and in our research sectors. May be, the knowledge economy of Ireland is a de facto a convenient deus ex machina for the severe skews in the economy arising from the MNCs presence here. Or may be, it is all just fine and a crop of Nobel Prizes and research accolades for the country are only a matter of few more quid pushed into R&D line of private and public expenditure.