13/7/2014: Deflating That Corporate Debt Deflation Myth

This week, the IMF sketched out priorities for getting Spanish economy back onto some sort of a growth path. These, as in previous documents addressed to Irish and Portuguese policymakers, included dealing with restructuring of the corporate debts. IMF, to their credit, have been at the forefront of recognising that the Government debt is not the only crisis we are facing and that household debt and corporate debt also matter. As a reminder, Irish Government did diddly-nothing on both of these until IMF waltzed into Dublin.

But just how severe is the crisis we face (alongside with Spanish and Portuguese economies) when it comes to the size of the pre-crisis non-financial corporate debt pile, and how much of this debt pile has been deflated since the bottom of the crisis?

A handy chart from the IMF:

The right hand side of the chart compares current crisis to previous historical crises: Japan 1989-97; UK 1990-96; Austria 1988-96; Finland 1993-96; Norway 1999-05; Sweden 1991-1994.

So:

• Irish corporate debt crisis is off-the-scale compared to other 'peripherals' in the current crisis and compared to all recent historical debt crises;
• Irish deflation of debt through Q3 2013 is far from remarkable (although more dramatic than in Spain and Portugal) despite Nama taking a lion's share of the development & property investment debts off the banks.

Now, remember the popular tosh about 'debt doesn't matter for growth' that floated around the media last year in the wake of the Reinhart-Rogoff errors controversy? Sure, it does not... yes... except... IMF shows growth experience in two of the above historical episodes:

First the 'bad' case of Japan:

 So no, Japan has not recovered...

And then the 'good' case of Sweden:

Err... ok, neither did Sweden fully recover... for a while... for over a decade.

20/5/2014: Irish Credit Supply to Non-Financial, Non-Property Sectors

We keep hearing about banks lending to enterprises and the recovery in the banking sector in general. And we keep watching credit supply in the economy shrinking and shrinking and shrinking. The reality, of course, is simple: our banking system continues to deleverage and alongside, our companies continue to deleverage. This means that legacy debts relating to property investments and development are being washed off the books. Which, of course, accounts for property-related credit. But…

Take a look at this chart, plotting credit advanced to Irish private sector enterprises.

The property deleveraging story is in solid orange. And not surprisingly, it is still heading down. With all the fabled foreign and domestic property buyers reportedly killing each other on their hunts for bricks and mortar assets in Ireland, there is less and less and less credit available for the sector. In part, some of this decline is now being replaced by foreign funding (lending and equity, including private equity). But the credit story is still the same: property related lending is down 6% y/y in Q4 2013 (latest for which we have data).

Deleveraging in financial sector is also there - the sector credit lines have shrunk 15% y/y in Q4 2013.

But what on earth is happening in the 'healthy' (allegedly) sectors of the economy - those ex-Property and ex-Financial Intermediation? Here, total credit is down 4% y/y in Q4 2013.

In fact, from Q2 2009 onward, Irish financial system registered not a single quarter of y/y increases in credit supply to non-financial and non-property enterprises in Ireland. That's right: credit did not go up even in a single quarter. Worse, between Q4 2011 and Q4 2013, average annual rate of decline in credit to real economy was -4.0% which is exactly the same as in Q4 2013. In other words, even in terms of growth rates, there is no improvement. 

17/5/2014: Debt, Equity & Global Financial Assets Stocks

An amazing chart via McKinsey and BIS showing the distribution of financial assets by class and overall stocks of financial assets. These are covering the period through Q3 2013.

What we can learn from this?

1. Stock of financial assets might seem absurdly high compared to overall economic activity, but it is not that much out of line with longer term growth trends. Between 2000 and 2014 the world GDP is expected to grow from USD32,731.439 billion to USD76,776.008 billion, a rise of 135%. Over 2000-2013, stock of financial assets rose at least 124%.
2. However, in composition terms, the assets are geared toward debt and especially sovereign debt. Public Debt securities are up in volumes 243% - almost double the rate of economic growth. Financial institutions bonds are up 144% - faster than economic growth. Private non-financial sectors debt is up from USD43 trillion to USD 91 trillion - a rise of 112%. Total debt is up from USD73 trillion to USD178 trillion or 144% so within debt group of assets, public debt is off the charts in growth terms.

There is much deleveraging that took place in the global economy over the recent years. All of it was painful. But there is no way current levels of debt, globally, can be sustained. 

9/5/2014: Irish Credit Conditions Worsened in Q1 2014

Latest data on interest rates (covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/952014-cost-of-credit-in-ireland-kept.html) and credit outstanding in the Irish banking system shows continued deleveraging in the economy:

At the end of Q1 2014,
-  Total volume of loans outstanding declined 5.6% y/y,
-  Loans to Households were down 1.54% y/y and
-  Loans to NFCs were down 9.29%.
-  Loans for house purchases were down EUR1.46bn,
-  Households' overdrafts rose EUR1.39bn, while
-  Consumer credit loans were down EUR1.43bn.
-  NFCs overdrafts fell EUR2.81bn and
-  Non-overdraft NFCs credit fell EUR5.2bn.

So credit available to enterprises and households in Ireland is still falling. More significantly, households are accumulating overdraft liabilities. And the cost of these facilities is rising.

Not a good sign, suggesting households and corporates are being squeezed on both ends of the debt deflation pump.

3/1/2013: Irish Private Sector Credit: November 2013

Central Bank of Ireland published series of data today covering deposits and credit in Irish banking system through November 2013. Here are the highlights.

Overall, household credit outstanding at the end of November 2013 stood at EUR107.763 billion, down EUR1.354 billion on October 2013 and up EUR2.547 billion on November 2012. Compared to November 2011, outstanding credit to Irish households is down EUR3.069 billion (-2.77%). On a more stable, 3mo average basis, Q4 2013 average credit outstanding was EUR2.886 billion ahead of the same period in 2012.

Monthly decline in overall credit supplied to Irish households can be broken down into a decline of EUR1.226 billion in loans for house purchase, EUR119 million decline in consumer credit and EUR9 million decline in other loans. In other words, monthly decline was broad across all three categories of household credit.

Year on year, credit to households fell EUR1.336 billion for consumer credit, and is down EUR110 million for credit extended via other loans. There was a rise of EUR4.680 million for loans for house purchase. However, this increase itself is fully accounted for by a massive EUR6.233 billion jump in credit for house purchase extended in just one month: December 2012. Since December 2012, however, credit remained slightly lower, averaging EUR 83.978 billion over 11 months of 2013 as compared to EUR84.973 billion back in December 2012.

In summary: house purchase loans are slightly down over the 12 months from December 2012 through November 2013, Consumer credit loans are down over the same period, and other loans are also down. In all three cases, declines were moderate, implying that over December 2012-November 2013, overall credit to Irish households declined from EUR111.076 billion to EUR107.763 billion.

Compared to H1 2008:

• Household credit overall was more than 30% down in November 2013 compared to H1 2008 average;
• Credit for house purchases was more than 32% down in November 2013 compared to H1 2008 average;
• Consumer credit was more than 39% down in November 2013 compared to H1 2008 average;
• Other loans were 139% up in November 2013 compared to H1 2008 average.

Non-financial corporations total credit outstanding in November 2013 stood at EUR81.129 billion, down EUR143 million on October 2013 and down EUR3.676 billion on November 2012. Q4 average stock of credit to non-financial companies in Ireland declined in Q4 2013 y/y by some EUR3.734 billion (-4.38%). Compared to November 2011, credit to NFCs in Ireland is down EUR7.225 billion (-8.18%). More than half of this drop took place over the last 12 months.

In summary: credit to NFCs extended in the Irish system is down y/y in November and over Q4 2013 overall and the rate of decline did not decline over the last 12 months, compared to previous 12 months.

Compared to H1 2008:

• Credit to NFCs overall was more than 50% down in November 2013 compared to H1 2008 average.

Next post will cover deposits and loan/deposit ratios.