2/12/2013: Manufacturing PMI for Ireland: November 2013

Manufacturing PMI for November released by market and Investec today shows slight slowdown in the rate of manufacturing sector expansion in Ireland.

Overall PMI declined from blistering 54.9 in October to more moderate and sustainable 52.4 in November. October reading was remarkable as it was the highest PMI reading posted since 56.0 was recorded in April 2011. Thus, some moderation was expected.

November reading pushed 12mo MA to 51.1, implying that on average Irish manufacturing was expanding over the last 12 months. 6mo MA is at 52.2 and 3mo MA is 53.3 through November, up on 51.1 3mo average through August 2013. Current 3mo average is ahead of that for 2010, 2011 and 2012. even setting October reading at 3mo MA level through September still leaves the average ahead of 2010-2012.

Current reading remains in statistically significant territory - another added positive.

Aside from that, no comment is possible, since Investec and Markit are continuing not to release underlying sub-indices.

With the above we can now confirm a new upward sub-trend from May 2013. Let's hope it will continue.

1/12/2013: The Age of Great Stagnation: Sunday Times, 24/11/2013

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from November 24, 2013.


In recent months, the hope-filled choir of Irish politicians raised to a crescendo the catchy tune of the return of our economic fortunes. Their views are often echoed by some European leaders, themselves eager to declare the euro crisis to be over. Earlier this year, as the euro area remained mired in official recession, the perpetually optimistic Economics Commissioner, Olli Rehn, summarised the economic environment as follows: “…we have disappointing hard data from the end of last year, some more encouraging soft data in the recent past and growing investor confidence in the future.”

Since then, we had ever-disappointing hard data through September this year, un-interpretable volatile soft data, and an ever-booming confidence in the future. This pattern of rising expectations amidst non-improving reality has been with us for over two years.

Which raises two questions. Firstly, is the fabled recovery we are allegedly experiencing sustainable? Second, are we betting our economic house on a right horse in the long run?


In our leaders’ imagination, this country’s prospects for a recovery remain tied to those of the euro area. The official theory suggests that growth in our major trading partners will trickle down to our exports, which, in turn, will drive domestic economy via improving investment and consumer spending. This theory rest on the fundamental belief that things have hit their bottom in Ireland and the only way from here is up.

These are the two core theories behind the short-term projections that underpinned Budget 2014. And, taken with risk caveats highlighted this week by the Fiscal Council assessment of the Department of Finance projections, the views from the Merrion Street represent a rather optimistic, but reasonably feasible forecast for 2014.

Alas, in the longer run, a lot is amiss with the above two theories. The most obvious point of contention is that we've heard them before. And so far, both turned out to be wrong.

Over 2009-2013, cumulative real GDP across the euro area shrunk by 2.1 percent, and expanded by 3.5 percent across the G7 countries. In Ireland, over the same period, GDP fell by 4.7 percent. The tail of Ireland was wagging the dog of the EU on the way down into the Great Recession.

The converse is true on the way up. Unlike in the early 1990s, the improving economic fortunes abroad are not doing much good for Ireland’s exports either. Over the last four years, volumes of imports of goods by the euro area countries grew by almost 15 percent and for G7 these went up 21 percent. Irish exports of goods over the same period of time rose just 2.2 percent. Global trade, having shrunk in 2008 and 2009 has been growing since then. Again, Ireland missed that momentum.

Over the crisis period, growth in our exports of goods and services did not translate into strong growth in our GDP and was completely irrelevant to the dynamics of our GNP or national income. The reason for this paradox is that our goods exports have shrunk 3.57 percent in 2012, having posted declining rate of growth 2011 compared to 2010. The rate of their decline is now accelerating. In January-September this year our exports of goods fell 6.7 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Goods trade is the core employer of Irish workers amongst all exporting sectors and the main contributor to the economy at large.

Instead of goods trade, our external balance expansion became dependent solely on ICT services and a massive collapse in imports.

Much of the former represent transfer pricing and have little real effect on the ground. As the result, our exports growth came with virtually zero growth in employment, domestic demand or investment. We don't need to dig deep into the statistics to see this: over the period of our fabled exports-led recovery, Irish private sector prices and domestic demand both followed a downward path.

The latter, however, presents a serious risk to the sustainability of our debts. To fund our liabilities, we need long-term current account surpluses to average above 4 percent of GDP over the next decade or so. We also need economic growth of some 3-3.5 percent in GDP and GNP terms to start reducing massive unemployment and reversing emigration. Yet, to drive real growth in the economy we need domestic investment and demand uplifts. These require an increase in imports of real capital and consumption goods. Should our exports of goods continue down the current trajectory, any sustained improvement in the domestic economy will be associated with rising imports and, as a corollary, deterioration in our trade balance.

This, in turn, will put pressures on our economy’s capacity to fund debt servicing. And given the levels of debt we carry, the tipping point is not that far off the radar.

In H1 2013 Ireland's external real debt (excluding monetary authorities, banks and FDI) stood at almost USD1.32 trillion - the highest level ever recorded in history. Large share of this debt is down to the IFSC and MNCs sector. However, overall debt levels in the Irish system are still sky high. More importantly, the debt levels are not declining, despite the claims to the aggressive deleveraging of our households and banks. At the end of H1 2013, total real economic debt in Ireland - debt of Irish Government, excluding Nama, Irish-resident corporates and households - stood at over EUR492 billion - down just EUR8.5 billion on absolute peak attained in H3 2012. In other words, our current debt levels are basically flat on the peak and are above the highs attained before the crisis.


With all the talk about positive forecasts for the economy and the world around us, we are desperately seeking to escape three basic truths. One: we are facing the risk that neither exports growth nor the reversals of our foreign trade partners' fortunes are likely to do much for our real economy. Two: the real break on our growth is the gargantuan burden of combined household, government and corporate debts. And three: we have no plan to deal with either the former risk or the latter reality.

Instead of charting our own course toward achieving sustainable long-term competitiveness in our economy, we remain attached at the hip to the slowest horse in the pack of global economies – the euro area. This engine of Irish growth is now seized by a Japanese-styled long-term stagnation with no growth in new investment and consumption, and glacially moving deleveraging of its banks and sovereigns.

Governments across the EU are pursuing cost-cutting and re-orienting their purchasing of goods and services toward domestic suppliers. In this zero-sum competition, small players like Ireland are risking being crushed by the weight of financial repressions and domestic protectionism in the larger economies.

These forces are not going to disappear overnight even if growth returns to Europe. According to the global survey by Markit, released this week, one third of companies worldwide expect their business to rise over the next 12 months. By itself - a low number, but a slight rise on 30 percent at the end of Q2 2013. Crucially, however, improving sentiment does not translate into improving economic conditions: only 14 percent of companies expect to add new employees in 2014.

As per financial repression, euro area banks remain sick with as much as EUR 1 trillion in required deleveraging yet to take place and some EUR350-400 billion worth of assets to be written down. Should the banks stress tests uncover any big problems there is no designated funding to plug the shortfalls. According to the Standard Bank analysts' research note, published this week: "Increasingly, European governments are resorting to tricks to resolve the problems of their banking systems, including inadequate stress tests, overly optimistic growth and asset price forecasts, and some unusual accounting stratagems."

Which foreign government or private economy is going to start importing Irish goods and services or investing here at an increasing rate when their own populations are struggling to find jobs and their banks are fighting for survival.


Meanwhile, we remain on a slow path to entering new markets, despite having spent good part of the last 6 years talking about the need to 'break' into BRICS and the emerging and middle-income economies. In January-September 2012, Irish exports to BRICS totaled EUR2.78 billion. A year later, these are down EUR240 million. Controlling for exchange rates valuations, our exports to the key developing and middle-income markets around the world are flat since 2010.

We are also missing the most crucial element of the growth puzzle: structural reforms that can make us competitive not just in terms of crude unit labor costs, but across the entire economic system. Since 2008 there has been virtually no changes made to the way we do business domestically, especially when it comes to protected professions and state-controlled sectors. Legal reforms, restructuring of semi-state companies’ and the sectors where they play dominant roles, such as health, transport and energy, changes to the costs and efficiencies in our financial services – these are just a handful of areas where promised reforms have not been delivered.

Political cycle is now turning against the prospect of accelerating such reforms with European and local elections on the horizon. Reforms fatigue sets in. The relative calm of the last 9-12 months has pushed all euro area governments into a false sense of security.

The good news is that the collapse phase of the Great Recession is over. The bad news is that with growth of around 1.5 percent per annum on GDP we are nowhere near the moment when the economy starts returning to long-term health. I warned about this scenario playing out over the next decade in these very pages back in 2008-2009. Given the latest projections from the Department of Finance and the IMF, we are firmly on the course to deliver on my prediction.

Welcome to the age of the Great Stagnation.

Box-out:

Recent research paper from the European Commission, titled The Gap between Public and Private Wages: New Evidence for the EU assessed the differences between public sector and private sector earnings across the 27 member states over the period of 2006-2010. The findings are far from encouraging for Ireland. In 2010, Irish public wages were found to be some 21.2 percent higher than the comparable wages paid in the private sector. The study controlled for a number of factors impacting wages differentials, including gender, age, tenure in the job, education and job grades. Strikingly, the study found that wages premium in the public sector was higher for women, for younger workers and for less skilled employees. A positive public wage premium was also observed at all levels of educational attainment with the largest premium paid to workers with low education and the lowest to workers with medium levels of education. If in 2006 Irish public sector wage premium stood on average at 20.5 percent, making our public sector wage premium second highest in the EU27, by 2010 we had the highest premium at 21.2 percent. It is worth noting that in all Nordic countries of Europe, the wage premium to public sector workers was found to be negative in 2010.

11/11/2013: Services and Manufacturing PMIs for Ireland: October 2013

With some delay, let's update the data on Irish PMIs.

Before we do, quick explanation for a delay - I used to be on the mailing list for Investec releases to PMIs for years (way before the organisation became a part of Investec). This all ended some months back when I was struck off the mailing list. Presumably, being a columnist with 2 publications & blogger, who always and regularly cites PMIs and Investec as their publisher, is just not enough to earn one the privilege of being sent the release. Oh, well…

Now to numbers… 

Services PMI hit 60.1 in October, up on 56.8 in September, marking the second highest reading since January 2007 (the highest was recorded in August this year at 61.6). This is a strong return. 3mo average for the period August - October 2012 was 53.9, current run is 59.5, so the distance y/y is 10.4% - statistically significant. 

Notably, from January 2010 through current, the average deviation of PMI from 50.0 is 2.5, so we are solidly above the average.

Quarterly averages are also strong. Q1 2013 posted 54.23 and Q2 2013 was at 54.27, but Q3 2013 came in at 58.67. And we are now running well ahead of that.

With full-sample standard deviation of the PMI reading distance to 50.0 at 7.3  (same for the period from January 2008 through current being 6.84), we are now solidly in statistically significant territory for expansion since July 2013.

Manufacturing PMI also strengthened, although by much less than Services. Manufacturing PMI hit 54.9 in October, up on 52.7 in September and 3mo average through October 2013 is at 53.2, which is 3.% ahead of the 3mo MA through October 2012.

Quarterly averages are signalling weaker growth, however. Q1 2013 was at 50.1 (basically, zero growth in statistical terms), while Q2 2013 stood at 49.3 (same - zero growth in statistical terms). Q3 2013 came in at 51.3 and the October reading is ahead of this. In fact, October 2013 reading is the highest since April 2011. October reading is statistically significant, based on historical data, but it is not statistically significantly different from 50 on the basis of data from January 2008.

The above shows one thing: we are above historical and 2008-present averages for both Manufacturing and Services PMIs (good news). Below chart confirms relatively strong performance for the series on 3mo MA basis (good news):

As chart below shows, there is a third good news bit: both series have now broken away from their asymptotic trend, with Manufacturing at last showing some life.

Note to caveat the above. As I showed before, both manufacturing and services PMIs have relatively weak relation to actual GDP and GNP growth, with Manufacturing PMI being, predictably, better anchored to real growth here. Details here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/3102013-irish-pmis-are-they-meaningful.html

3/10/2013: Irish PMIs - are they meaningful?

Having covered Services and Manufacturing PMIs (see links here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/3102013-services-and-manufacturing-pmis.html) in terms of Q3 2013 averages, let's have a reminder as to the links to actual growth in Irish GDP and GNP these series have.

Two charts covering through Q2 2013:

Thus, overall:

• Changes q/q in Manufacturing PMIs have only a weak correlation with actual real (constant prices) GDP and GNP changes q/q: R-squares of just 35.6% and 29.4% respectively when we remove the constant factor (which is not significant by itself at any rate). This is weak to say the least.
• Changes q/q in Services PMIs have only a very weak correlation with actual real (constant prices) GDP and GNP changes q/q: R-squares of just 16.4% and 17.6% respectively when we remove the constant factor (which is significant). This is very poor.
• With positive intercepts of 0.0023 for GDP and 0.0024 for GNP, the Services PMI R-square rises to 23.7% for GDP and 22.7% for GNP. Once again, no change to the above conclusion.

The above suggests that a significant component of both PMIs come from transfer pricing and not real economic activity on the ground. Or put differently, the PMIs are not that exceptionally meaningful indicators of actual levels of activity in the economy and are only weakly-significant in indicating the direction of that activity. 

Note: this is quarterly averages data, not much more volatile data based on monthly series. Which puts to question monthly movements in PMIs even more...

3/10/2013: Services and Manufacturing PMIs for Ireland: September 2013

In the previous posts I covered separately both Service PMI for Ireland and Manufacturing PMI (released by Markit & Investec). As noted, both series show strong performance in September. Here is the combined analysis:

Both Services and Manufacturing PMIs are now above their historical crisis-period averages. Manufacturing PMI is slightly ahead (0.1 points) of its historical pre-crisis average since May 2000 when both series start running coincidently. Services PMI is now slightly below its historical pre-crisis average.

Services PMI have broken out of the flat trend and are now trending up for the last 12 months. However, Manufacturing PMI continues to move side-ways, although on average remaining positive.

Two major points: September 2013 reading puts both indices at statistically significant levels above 50.0, which is the first such occurrence since February 2011:

In addition, we are seeing stronger positive correlation between the two indices (the 12mo rolling correlation below is only indicative) established since February 2013 low:

In other words, both sides of the economy are now performing better, but we need this momentum to be sustained over 2-3 months to see serious feed-through into actual economic activity figures.

1/10/2013: Irish Manufacturing PMI: September 2013

Some good readings from Irish Manufacturing PMI (Investec-sponsored Markit data) for September:

• Headline PMI is at 52.7 up on 52.0 in August and the highest reading since 53.9 in July 2012.
• Critically, this appears to be the first statistically significant reading above 50.0 since November 2012.
• I use 'appears' above since we have no formal analysis from Markit on this (Investec don't do analysis). The distribution is Laplace. August reading was close to being statistically significant.
• In terms of trend, Q1 2013 average reading was 50.13, Q2 2013 at 49.33, Q3 now reads 51.9. 
• 12mo MA is at 50.8.
• 3mo MA through September 2013 is at 51.9, which is below the same period 2012 (52.2), but ahead of 2011 (49.2) and slightly ahead of 2010 (50.4).

Now, it appears we have broken the downward trend at last. Index volatility (36mo rolling) has fallen slightly to around 2.3 in terms of 3mo average through September, which is close to historical average of 2.4 and is well below the crisis-period average of 3.4. Positive skew on change is at 3mo average of +0.75 (for deviations from 50.0) and this contrasts with a negative -0.34 skew for historical data and -0.25 skew for crisis period data. So let's call it a trend reversal for the short term:

Sadly, nothing else to report, since Investec/Markit continue to push out data-less releases. Wish I could tell you about employment, exports orders, total orders... but there is not a single number in the press release, only comments.

2/9/2013: Irish Manufacturing PMI: August 2013

Markit/Investec Irish Manufacturing PMI out for August today. As usual - no data on sub-indices, no statistical analysis released.

Headline reading improved to 52.0 in August, up on 51.0 in July, marking the highest reading since November 2012 when it stood at 52.4 and the third highest reading in 12 months. Release from Markit is here. My analysis as follows:

• 1.0 points gain on July is a decent number. We are now into third consecutive month of nominal seasonally-adjusted readings above 50.0. All of these are good signs.
• Another good sign: 12mo MA is now at 50.8 and 3mo MA is at 51.1. This implies that 3mo MA is ahead significantly over 48.8 reading for 3mo through May 2013. However, on a negative side, 3mo MA through August 2013 is down on 52.6 recorded for the 3mo through August 2012, although it is ahead of 3mo MA for the same period in 2011, and down on same period average for 2010.
• Cautionary signs: current reading is still below statistically significant levels (ca 52.2), although we are in a Laplace distribution (as I noted earlier, based on higher moments). Last time the index was reading statistically above 50.0 was in November 2012.
• Another note of caution: Q3 2013 to-date averages at 51.5 - nice number, but recall that in a contractionary Q1 2013, PMIs averaged above 50.1. Nonetheless, good news - the index for Q3 2013 to-date is above both Q1 and Q2 readings. 

Trends illustrated:

Note strong departure from 6mo MA in the chart above, which is encouraging; and in the chart below, note that we have finally reached above the crisis-period average for the index.

Another good news bit is that we have moved closer to confirming the index breakout from the downward trend that run from July 2012 through June 2013. One-two months more of this performance and we can be moving onto a new trend:

Summary: overall, decent performance by manufacturing PMI in August. 

I cannot confirm any of the statements made by Markit/Investec, and note: I have not seen Investec usual longer release so far. However, per Markit, all three main sub-sectors have posted increases in output in August, and "new orders rose for the second successive month, and at a solid pace that was the strongest since July 2012". No idea where actual indices readings are at. "Meanwhile, employment continued to rise, extending the current sequence of job creation to three months. However, the pace of increase slowed over the month." Again, no idea as per actual readings.

2/8/2013: Irish Manufacturing PMI: July 2013

Manufacturing PMI for Ireland was out yesterday. And as usual, it was worth waiting and giving the Irish media time to get through their circus of 'analysis'. The excitement of 'growth' predictions aside, here's the raw truth about the numbers (please, keep in mind that shambolic data coverage by Markit press-release is no longer conducive to any serious analysis of the underlying components of the PMIs). Note: PMI for Ireland are released by Investec and Markit.

All we have is the headline number. On the surface, headline Manufacturing PMI moved from 50.3 in June to 51.0 in July. Both numbers are above 50.0 and thus suggest expansion. This marks two consecutive months of growth.

However, there are some serious problems with the above. Read on:
-- At 51.0, July PMI is barely above 12 mo average of 50.7.
-- 3mo average through July is at 50.3, ahead of 49.4 3mo average through April 2013 - which is good news.
-- In July 2012, PMI was at 53.9 which was statistically significantly above 50.0 (in other words, statistically we did have growth in July 2012, which turned out to be pretty disastrous year for manufacturing and industry as we know). And in July 2013 at 51.0 there is no statistically significant difference in current PMI reading from 50.0, which means - statistically-speaking - we do not have growth.
-- Current 3mo MA at 50.3 is not different from 50.0 statistically
-- Current 3mo MA is below that in 2012 (52.7), ahead of that in 2011 (49.9) and below that for 2010 (52.4) - which is not exactly confidence-inspiring, right?
-- M/m (recall, these are seasonally-adjusted numbers) there was a rise in PMI of 0.7 (slightly better than m/m rise of 0.6 in June 2013). Alas, this monthly rise was also statistically indifferent from zero.

Here are two charts that illustrate the above points.

In short - good news is that PMI is reading above 50 and strengthened in July compared to June. Bad news is that statistically-speaking, neither the reading levels (in both June and July), nor increases m/m (in both June or July) are significant. Which means that we simply cannot will away the caution in reading the PMI numbers this time around.

7/72013: Irish Manufacturing & Services PMI: June 2013

In the previous post I covered in detail the dynamics of the Services PMI (here) and few posts back, I covered Manufacturing PMIs (here). Now, lets take a look at both together.

Chart above shows the deviations of both PMIs from 50.0, with pre-crisis and post-crisis averages.
The relative weakness in Manufacturing performance, from the end of Q2 2011 through current is pretty much apparent. Both, manufacturing and services PMIs signaled much stronger growth conditions prior to the crisis, than since the beginning of 2010.

The most significant decline took place in Services, with the pre-crisis average deviation from 50.0 at 7.6 falling to 1.9 average deviation in post-January 2010 period. With STDEV at 6.5 since 2008 (7.4 prior historical), and with skew at -0.7 and kurtosis at 0.73, we are nowhere near average deviation being statistically significantly different from zero since the onset of 'recovery'.

Manufacturing decline has been more modest, given weak rates of growth in pre-crisis period. The average rate of pre-crisis deviation from 50 was 2.6 and that well to 1.1. With historical STDEV of 4.2 and STDEV since 2008 at 5.2, skew at -1.6 and kurtosis of 3.24, this is again indistinguishable from zero growth conditions.

On slightly better side of things and along shorter-run dimension, 3mo MAs are both above zero, but, once again, none are statistically significantly different from zero.

There is a strong, but non-linear relationship between Manufacturing and Services PMIs at levels, and it shows that year on year, relative gains in Manufacturing over 2011-2012 got erased over 2012-2013 and were replaced by relative gains in Services.

Irish PMIs have, however, very tenuous link to actual economic growth. Here are two charts showing this week relationship for log-log growth terms, but exactly the same picture is confirmed by taking simple level deviations in PMIs from 50, as well as for linear and cubic relationships (for robustness):

It is quite telling that Services PMIs have much weaker explanatory power for GDP and GNP growth than Manufacturing PMIs, confirming that Irish services, dominated by ICT and IFSC tax-optimising MNCs are not as relevant to Irish economy as manufacturing sectors.

Another telling thing is that both for Services and Manufacturing, the sectors activity as measured by PMIs has stronger relationship with GDP than GNP - which is also predictable, once you consider the PMIs heavy slant toward MNCs.


Note: raw data on PMIs levels is taken from Markit-Investec releases, with all analysis above, as well as deviations from 50 and all other transformations, including quarterly data computations, undertaken by myself. These transformations and analysis are intellectual property of my own and should not be cited without appropriate attribution.

30/4/2013: Irish chart that worries me most

The chart that bothers me most in Irish context is:

This shows the structural nature of the growth slowdown in Ireland in post-2007 period (based on IMF forecasts through 2018). The period of this slowdown is consistent with the growth rates recorded in the 1980s. And here's the summary of decade-average real GDP growth rates:

Now, keep in mind, in the 1980s and 1990s, Irish growth was driven by a combination of domestic drivers, plus external demand, primarily and predominantly in the goods exports areas. Which means that more of our GDP actually had real impact on the ground in Ireland. Since the onset of the crisis, most of our growth has been driven by the growth in exports of services, which have far less tangible impact on the ground.

Another point to make: current rates of growth for the 2010s are below those in the 1980s and, recall back, the rates of growth achieved in the 1980s were not enough to deflate the debt/GDP overhang we had. Of course, in addition to the Government debt overhang (similar to that in the 1980s) we also now have a household and corporate debt overhang.

If the IMF projections above turn out out be close to reality, we are in a structural decline economically and are unlikely to generate sufficient escape velocity to exit the debt crisis any time before 2025 at the earliest.

27/8/2012: Second worst in GDP growth in Q1 2012?

When on July 12 the CSO published the latest Quarterly National Accounts, the Irish media and the Government were quick to focus on the positive side of the reported data - the revised figures for Q4 2011 that Irish GDP rose 1.4% in constant prices terms y/y in 2011 compared to 2010. Fr less attention was paid to a massive 2.5% y/y fall off in GNP and even less attention still was given to Q1 2012 preliminary estimates that showed q/q contractions in GDP of 1.1% and in GNP of 1.3%. All in, the headline figure referenced was almost always the up-beat "Irish economy grew at a euro area average rate in 2011".

Now, there are many caveats that should accompany q/q figures, including:

• Q/q changes can be volatile;
• Preliminary figures can be subject to significant revisions in the future; etc

Keeping all of this in mind, today's data release from the OECD is discomforting. Here's the chart:

As the chart above clearly shows, excluding Greece (missing data), we are the second worst performer (after Luxembourg) in terms of GDP growth in Q1 2012 in the entire OECD.

Let's hope those future revisions come in to the significant upside.

2/7/2012: Sunday Times 24/06/2012: Pharma Cliff is Here

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times article from June 24th.

Since the beginning of this crisis back in 2008, Irish Governments have been quick to point to our exceptional and exemplary trade performance as the sole hope for the recovery. As we know, five years into the crisis, that recovery is still wanting. However, our exports have expanded significantly.

The latest Irish trade in goods statistics, released this week by the CSO and covering the period through April 2012 come on foot of the last week’s release of the more detailed trade statistics for Q1 2012. Both are presenting an alarming picture.

April 2011 Stability Programme Update (SPU), the official Government report card to the Troika, envisioned exports growth of 6.8% in 2011 and 5.7% in 2012. Budget 2012 revised 2011 exports growth estimate to 4.6%. By April 2012 – the latest SPU publication – actual 2011 growth outrun was 4.1%, down a massive 2.7 percentage points on a 9 months-ahead forecast from April 2011. April 2012 SPU also revised 2012 projected exports growth to 3.3%. More realistic IMF is now projecting exports growth of 3.0% this year as per its latest Article IV report on Ireland released last week.

As poor as the above prospects might be, the reality is even more alarming. For trade in goods only, January-April 2012 period total volume of imports was down 7.2% on the same period of 2011, while the volume of exports was down 0.9%, not up 3.3% as forecast in the Budget and the latest SPU. So far, average rate of growth in exports in the first four months of 2012 is -0.6%, down from the same period 2011 average growth rate of 7.4%.

Our trade surplus in goods is up 7.7%, but that is due to the fall-off in imports, especially in Machinery and Transport Equipment and in Chemicals and Related Products categories. The decline in imports, while boosting temporarily our trade balance, can mean only two possible things: either imports will accelerate much faster than exports in months ahead as MNCs rebuild their diminishing stocks of inputs, or MNCs will cut back their exports output even further. Either way, there will be new pressure coming from the external trade side.

The latest decreases in exports are driven by the rapid shrinking of two sub-sectors.

In the first four months of 2012, Medical and Pharmaceutical Products exports have fallen to €7.93 billion from €9.01 billion a year ago – a decline of almost 12%. And this trend is accelerating with 21% drop in April 2012 compare to 12 months ago. The patent cliff, or in common terms, production cuts as drugs go off patent, is now biting hard with blockbuster drugs, such as Lipitor and Viagra either going or scheduled to go soon into competition with generics.

Organic Chemicals have also shrunk in April compare to a year ago, although the first four months of the year exports are still up on 2011.

These two sectors are the giants of Irish exports. In 2010, exports of Medical and Pharmaceutical Products and Organic Chemicals accounted for 49% of our total shipments of goods abroad. By 2011 this number rose to 50%. At the same time, in 2010 and 2011 the two sectors trade surplus (the difference between the value of exports and imports) was close to 88% of our total trade surplus in goods. So far, in the first 4 months of 2012, the same holds, with two sectors contribution to trade surplus now reaching above 95%.

Given the on-going contraction in the sectors activity revealed in April data, and given steady, even rising, share of their contribution to our overall trade in goods, one has to ask a question as to why other sectors of exporting activity are not taking up the slack created by declining pharma sales?

The answer is, unfortunately, as worrying as the stats above.

Since about 2007, when the effects of the upcoming patent cliff started to feed into the decision makers’ diaries, Irish trade development and FDI policy has shifted in the direction of promoting bio-pharmaceutical and biotechnology investment and trade. Much hope was placed on these two sectors stepping up to the plate to replace revenues that were expected to be lost in the pharma sector.

These are yet to bear fruit and, given the accelerating competition worldwide for biotech business and investment, our time maybe running out. The main obstacles to the bio-pharma and biotech sectors development here in Ireland are regulatory, policy and institutional.

One key focus of biotechnology sector research pipeline worldwide is on stem-cell research – the area restricted in Ireland by the lack international (rather than national) standards. The same applies to a number of other areas of R&D intensive sector. Analysis by Pfizer, published two years ago, spelled exactly why Ireland is not at the races when it comes to clinical research, an area that covers huge R&D related spends of major pharmaceutical and biotech companies. We lack competitiveness in terms of providing unified and transparent research infrastructure, absence of a systemic ‘knowledge-sourcing’ opportunities, protracted and unpredictable research approval and trial processes, high cost of sourcing patients for trials, cost and bureaucratic burden relating to regulatory inspections and compliance, and lack of PR and communications platforms that can be used outside Ireland.

Back in 2010, the Research Prioritization Steering Group was set up to review priorities for Ireland’s research funding. Published this March, the Group report marks a significant departure from the previous funding approach for bio-medical sciences, re-focusing funding toward commercialization and jobs creation, away from ‘pure’ science and early stage research. This shift in the approach is both radical and reflective of the realities in the biotechnology and other core high technology sectors to-date. During the previous decade, the state spent €7.3 billion on R&D supports under Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays on R&D, helping to employ some 340 PhDs and 171 non-PhD researchers in the state sector alone in 2010 (down from 431 and 197, respectively in 2008). Yet there is preciously little in terms of exports generation that came from these programmes, and today Ireland has no serious indigenous or FDI-supported start-ups culture in bio-pharma or modern medicine and healthcare.

As competition for the sector investment heats up, and as MNCs-led pharma exports continue to shrink, Ireland needs to move fast to create institutional and regulatory systems that can make us attractive to biotech firms. One simple step would be to reinstate a national bioethics council and integrate organizational systems relating to biotech R&D. The role of the Government’s Science Advisor should become more assertive, outputs-focused and linked directly to providing better information to the Government and policymakers on both the strategic aspects of R&D policies and actual outcomes. Alongside, we need to put in place systems for better assessment of returns on investment in R&D as well as processes that would allow us to act on such evaluations. If entrepreneurship and jobs creation were to become core objectives for R&D backing, we should consider merging commercialization functions of the Science Foundation Ireland with exports development capabilities of the Enterprise Ireland. This should leave SFI dealing solely with pure research, reducing duplication in the system of commercialization supports.

The latest trade figures, taken on their own, should sound an alarm bell in the corridors of power.

Box-out:

In an economy that is importing pretty much everything it uses for capital investment, having an investment ‘stimulus’ is equivalent to taking each euro of Government spending and sending over a half of it abroad – in aid of imports manufacturers in Germany, France, the UK and further afield. The end result of such a transaction would be a gross gain to the economy from employing lower-skilled domestic workers installing imported capital, minus the value of imports, plus the returns to the installed capital. Given the low value-added of low skilled labour, the net result would most likely be a loss to the economy due to close-to-zero returns on the above transaction and high cost of financing such a stimulus in the current funding conditions. In Ireland, the above negative return is likely to be increased further by the politicized nature of our public ‘investments’. Thus, in my view, the ESRI is correct in its assessment, published this week, of the undesirability of a fiscal stimulus in the current conditions. Minister Howlin, in his response to the ESRI arguments claimed that “…the social imperative of getting people back to work is … a far more important [priority] in the current climate.” His statement betrays disdain for evidence and economic illiteracy of frightening proportions. The Government should not and can not be in the business of wasting people’s resources, including the resources of the unemployed taxpayers, on feel-good ‘policies’. Yet Minister Howlin disagrees, even when the wastefulness of his own belief is factually evidenced by research. The Government should have economically sensible programmes for dealing with the curse of long-term unemployment. These, however, should not come at the expense of creating apparent waste.

24/3/2012: QNA 2011 - Part 1

With some delay, the next few posts will deal with the latest release of QNA data - Q4 2011 and annual data for national accounts 2011.

This first post in the series will deal with annual aggregates in constant prices terms.

There are overall two headlines to consider in the constant prices (real) data. The first one is that annual data shows continuation of the trend underlying weakness in the GDP in 2010-2011 and the second on is the precipitous contraction in GNP in 2011.

Let us start with Sector of Origin data (Table 1 in CSO release):

• Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector output rose from €3,081mln in 2010 to €3,092mln in 2011 a rise of 1.98%. This follows sector expansion of 0.7% in 2010. The sector is now 21.78% below its peak output attained in 2005. There was contraction in the sector real output of 2.84% back in 2009, so overall growth has accelerated in 2011, compared to both 2010 and to every year since 2007. Alas, in absolute terms, the sector is comparatively small and levels of activity increases have been underwhelming. Sector output remains well below 2007 and even below 2008 levels.
• Industry, including construction, activity rose to €45,639mln from €44,420 in 2010 - a gain of 2.74%. Back in 2010, the sector grew by 5.17% yoy, an that growth marked a reversal from a contraction of 4.03% in 2009. The sector activity in real terms remains 2.68% below its peak attained in 2004 when Industry (including Construction) yielded output of €46,895mln.
• Building &Construction component of Industry output continued uninterrupted contraction for the fourth year in a row. 2011 output in the sub-sector stood at €3,753mln, down 13.51% on €4,339mln in 2010, which follows contraction of 30.08% in 2010 and 27.49% fall in 2009. Relative to peak attained in 2004, Building and Construction activity is now down 72.46%. Assuming 8% amortization & depreciation in the stock of capital, current rate of Building and Construction activity barely covers 60% of the O&M expenditure required to maintain the stock of capital accumulated in 2003-2010.
• Distribution Transport and Communications sector activity fell in 2011 to €20,932mln - a decline of 1.58% yoy, that follows on a 2.04% drop in 2010 and 9.81% contraction in 2009. Relative to peak in 2007, the sector is now turning out 16.63% less output on an annual basis.
• Public Administration and Defence sector posted a decline of 3.30% yoy in 2011 to €5,602mln, marking the third year of declines. Relative to peak, attained in 2008 at €6,199mln, the sector ctivity is now down 5.67%.
• Other services (including rents) sector posted a sizable 2.15% contraction in 2011 to €67,578mln marking the 4th year of uninterrupted declines, with 2010 yoy decline of 2.29% and 2009 decline of  2.34%. The sector activity in 2011 was 7.89% below its peak attained in 2007.

Few charts:

Overall, not a single sector has managed so far to regain pre-crisis peaks after 4 years of the crisis. Only two sectors - Agriculture and Industry - posted growth in 2011, and the combined rate of expansion for these two sectors was shallower in 2011 (+2.7%) than in 2010 (+4.9%). In other words, if 2011 was a 'recovery' year as the Government is claiming, the rate of recovery in sectoral activity was shallower, implying that by the same Government 'metric' we had a boom in 2010.

Headline numbers for GDP & GNP are exceptionally weak:

• GDPat constant factor costs - the metric that reflects real value added in the economy - rose from €144.51bn in 2010 to €145.95bn in 2011 - an increase of 1.0% yoy that followed on the contraction of 0.07% in 2010 and a fall of 5.41% in 2009. This marked the first year of expanding factor cost-based activity since 2008. However, overall activity is down 6.21% on its peak attained in 2007.
• Taxes net of subsidies fell to €15,082mln down 2.05% yoy compared to 2010. In 2010 these declined 3.71% and in 2009 they were down 19.80% on 2008. Overall, taxes net of subsidies are now down 33.26% on the peak attained in 2007 (see chart above).
• Headline GDP in constant prices is now at €161,034mln or 0.71% ahead of 2010 levels. This follows on a contraction of 0.43% in 2010 and 6.99% decline in 2009. Relative to the peak of €177,963mln attained in 2007, our GDP in constant market prices terms is down 9.51%, standing just over €1bn ahead of 2004 levels. In effect, in real GDP terms, assuming long-term growth rate potential of 2% pa, Ireland has lost 16% of its output by the end of 2011. If Irish economy continued to grow at 2% pa in real terms through 2011, our GDP would have stood at €192.6bn instead of €161bn today.
• Net factor income from the rest of the world (effectively payments received from abroad less payments paid out to foreigners) have reached -€31,801mln in 2011 - up a massive 16.39% yoy, following a contraction of 3.67% in 2010 and an expansion of 10.38% in 2009. These, of course, reflect massive transfer activity ramp-up in exports sectors (to be discussed in subsequent post). Transfers abroad are now at a record high, running 18.62% ahead of pre-crisis levels in 2007. The boom town has arrived for MNCs.
• As the result of accelerated transfers of profits out of Ireland, our GNP in constant market prices terms has shrunk 2.53% to €129,232mln. This is the real income of the Irish economy and the contraction of 2.53% is the real masure of our 'recovery'. 2011 yoy fall-off follows on growth of 0.27% attained in 2010.The Government claim that in 2011 Irish economy has finally posted a recovery is wholly bogus. In fact, according to real metric of Irish economic activity, our economy grew in 2010 and contracted in 2011. Irish GNP is now 14.33% below its pre-crisis peak of €150.86bn attained in 2007.

To conclude, let's plot the relative importance of each sector in overall economic activity:

 Chart above clearly shows that

• Agriculture retained relatively modest increase in its output share, rising from 2.3% of total economic output in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011. Agriculture contribution to overall economic activity is still below its pre-crisis 2003-2005 levels.
• Industry, including Construction share of total output rose to 35.3% in 2011 from 33.5% in 2010 and is now more important to the economy than in any other year since 2003.
• Building and Construction used to account for 9.9% of overall economic activity in the country back in 2004 and now accounts for just 2.9%
• Distribution Transport and Communications sector share of overall activity remained within 16.5-15.5 percent range of 2003-2011 period at 16.2% in 2011.
• Public Administration and Defence, despite all the austerity is still running slightly ahead of 2003-2007 average. In 2003-2007 the sector accounted, on average for 4% of economic activity in the country. In 2011 this share was 4.3%. In 2007 - last year before crisis - the share was 3.9%. So austerity years to-date average is 4.4% while pre-crisis is 3.996%. Drastic cut-backs?
• Other services are running at 52.3% of economic activity in 2011, compared to 52.1% in 2010 and 53.5% in 2009. Back in 2003-2007 these averaged 47%

In the following post we will look at evolution of GDP/GNP gap and the overall share of the economy shipped out in form of profits by the MNCs.

22/12/2011: Long term growth and the crisis

Let me highlight the following angle on considering latest Irish economic forecasts. The downgrade by IMF, OECD and EU Comm, plus ESRI to 2012 growth of 0.9-1.0% - as much as I personally think these forecasts to be optimistic as they are - cuts across the strikingly more optimistic Department of Finance forecasts for 1.3% growth (in the Budget) or 1.6% growth (in the documents released one day ahead of the Budget). This is pretty clear.

But the real issue here is that in the long term, IMF projects Irish growth of 2.3%, 2.7% and 3.0% in 2013-2015, with the output gap of 3.6%, 2.2% and 1.1%. The implied loss to the Irish economy due to the crisis, from 2010 through 2015 is a cumulative €37.5bn. In other words, our economy's long-term growth potential for growth, held back by the structural recession and debt overhang, plus fiscal mess, is - between 2010-2015 - €37 billion higher than the expected realized income. Or 20.9% of the expected 2015 GDP.

While differences year on year are significant in terms of fiscal targets, the fact that in 6 years between 2010 and 2015 Ireland's economy will be forced (by our inept Government policies on debt and banks, plus our inept EU 'partners' policies on 'bailout' and banks) to waste almost 21% of our expected annual income shows the following:

• Current policies are incapable to drive Ireland back to its potential long term growth rates, and
• Ireland is clearly distinct from other peripheral countries which, while having a similar crisis, do not have the same potential for future growth as Ireland.