26/1/2012: Rip-off Ireland - Sunday Times, 22 January 2012

This is an edited version of my Sunday Times column from January 22, 2012.

Back in 2004, with much fanfare, Fine Gael launched its ripoff.ie campaign that highlighted a large number of cases where policy-related or regulated price structures and practices have resulted in our cost of living falling well out of line with other Euro area economies. In 2009, Fine Gael launched a policy paper that was supposed to end Rip-off culture, including in state controlled sectors, once and for all.

Fast-forward to today. Since elections, having abandoned its pro-consumer agenda, Fine Gael has done marvellously in playing a ‘responsible’ possum to Irish vested interests.

According to the CSO, year on year, consumer prices in Ireland rose 2.5% through December 2011. The range of these price changes across sectors, however, was dramatic.

Clothing and footware prices were up 0.4% in 12 months through December, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance prices fell 1.9%, Recreation and Culture deflated by 0.6% and Restaurants and Hotels costs fell 0.9%. Health costs rose 2.6%, Transport by 1.6%, Education by 8.9%.

Majority of these price hikes have nothing to do with private firms ‘profiteering’. Per Purchasing Manager Indices, tracking the changes in input and output prices for goods and services, Irish firms and MNCs have experienced sustained shrinking of the profit margins since the beginning of the crisis, as consistent with deflation. Instead, the largest price increases, and ever expanding profit margins, took place in the sectors that, in the past, Fine Gael have correctly identified as being state-controlled parts of the Rip-off Ireland.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices are up just 5.9% in the last 10 years, cumulatively. State-controlled Tobacco prices are up 69.6% and Alcohol 21.6%. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels – single largest category of consumer spending – is up 64.4% on December 2001, with 90% increase in Energy Products costs, 63.3% increase in Utilities and Local Charges, and 99.1% increase in Mortgage Interest costs. In the last five years, Rents have fallen 8%, while Mortgage Interest rose 11.3% despite the fact that ECB rates have dropped 2.5 percentage points over the period. Electricity prices are up 28.3% in 5 years and 11.5% in the last year alone, despite the fact that natural gas prices – the main generation source for Irish electricity – have declined worldwide.

While Fine Gael cannot be blamed for the full extent of price hikes since 2001 or 2006, the current Government bears responsibility for failing to address state-controlled inflation since taking the office.

The above sectors are indirectly controlled by the state via regulation, state ownership of banks and enterprises, and indirect tax measures. But what about those costs more directly set by the Government?

Health costs are up 56.5% on December 2001, Education is up 81.5%. In Health, the core drivers of inflation have been Hospital Services (up 40.2% since December 2001 and 9.8% in 2011), Dental Services (up 20.6% in 5 years, but down 0.3% in the last 12 months). Meanwhile, prescribed drugs prices are down 11.3% on 2006 and 4% in the last 12 months. Health insurance costs are up 75.7% and 22.9% since December 2006 and in the last 12 months, respectively. This in a country with younger population and well-established trends in terms of demand for healthcare. In contrast, vehicles insurance – privately provided and similar in predictability of total claims risks – inflation since December 2006 amounts to just 9% and 0.9% in the last 12 months.

Same story of the state-led rip-off is replicated in the Transport sector. Here, overall costs are up 9.3% in the last 5 years, but bus fares are up four times as much. Privately controlled costs of buying vehicles have declined 15.4%, while state-set motor tax rose 14.3%. Ditto in Communications, where telecoms services costs are up 5.8% in the last 5 years, but postal services up double that.

In two sub-sectors of education where the Government has least power to influence prices – Primary Education and Other education and training – inflation is the lowest. The highest price increases are in the third level education, with prices up 50.1% in just 5 years (13.4% in last 12 months alone).

The above clearly shows that the Government and the semi-state bodies and enterprises it owns, along with the banks are at the heart of the extortion racket that is our cost of living. Over the recent years, rapid deflation in prices and costs in the private economy has been offset by the rampant inflation in prices and costs in the state-controlled and regulated sectors. In majority of cases, this inflation was directly benefiting state and semi-state employment, management and Government coffers. In all cases, the costs were directly impacting Irish consumers who are left with no meaningful choice, but to comply with the pricing structures set in the markets.

CHARTS:

Sources: CSO database and author own calculations

Meanwhile, Budget 2012 clearly shows that the Government is hell-bent on extracting ever-higher rents out of consumers through taxes and charges.

For example, the Government has introduced increased mortgage interest relief that amounts to €52 million in help for most indebted-households. But the very same Government refuses to intervene in the banks’ internecine policies of shifting the burden of losses from trackers onto the adjustable rate mortgagees. The households that the Government finds in the need of increased mortgage interest relief will be liable for the new Household Charge. And, if Minister Noonan has his way, mortgagees who default on their loans will pass into outright debt slavery to the banks.

There are more direct inflation-linked or inflation-raising taxes, such as VAT. Increase in the VAT rate simultaneously pushes up the overall tax component of all goods and services sold in the state that are taxable at the higher rate (an increase in inflation of some 9.5% for those items) and increases the costs of all goods and services that are dependent on intermediate inputs. Excise tax on tobacco comes against the Revenue Commissioners’ analysis showing that tobacco taxes have reached, even before Budget 2012 measures are factored in, the point where higher taxes harm receipts and fuel black markets. And Carbon Tax quadrupling from €5 per ton to €20 per ton has been responsible for some 2% rise in inflation in fuel and related activities. Motor tax increases, accounting for double the share in an average household expenditure that accrues to bus fares, are going to directly drive up the cost of transport.

Increases in State charges for hospital beds are expected to raise the cost of healthcare for middle class patients by some €268 million in full year terms. Health insurance levy hike further compounds this inflationary grab-and-run approach to policy. Secondary education ‘savings’ are likely to see parents being forced to cover much of the gap in funding out of their own pockets. Third level measures, while relatively modest in size, will compound massive inflation already accumulated in the sector over the last 5 years.

By the metrics of the Budget 2012, the current Government didn’t just mothball its pre-election ideas on reducing the reach of the State-sponsored Rip-off Ireland, it has actively moved to embrace the cost-of-living increases through indirect taxation and encouraging avarice of the semi-state commercial bodies and dominant near-monopolies. All of which means that the path to economic recovery we continue upon is the path of deflationary spiral in private sector economy, with mounting unemployment and businesses insolvencies, offset by the unabated cost increases when it comes to the meagre services the State does supply or control.

Box-out:

Following an almost 11% month on month decline in trade surplus in October, Irish exporters have posted a record-breaking return to health in November, bucking all expectations. The market consensus was for the Irish trade surplus (merchandise trade only) to decline marginally to ca €3.4 billion in November. Instead, the trade surplus rose – on seasonally adjusted basis – to €4.31 billion – the highest on record. In 11 months through November, cumulative merchandise trade surpluses now amount to €40.53 billion or 1.6% ahead of the same period in 2010. As before, the core drivers of trade surplus were exports increases in Organic Chemicals, and Medical and Pharmaceutical products, while indigenous exports rose significantly during the last year in Dairy products category. The latest data highlights the resilience of the Ireland-based MNCs’ exporting capabilities, providing continued contrast to the majority of our counterparts in the Euro area ‘periphery’ who have been posting dramatic slowdowns in exports and deepening trade deficits since the beginning of Q4 2011.

19/1/2012: December Inflation - State's Fingerprints all Over the Crime Scene

There will be a much more detailed analysis of the state-sanctioned rip-off that is revealed in the latest data from CSO on Irish consumer prices in my sunday Times article this weekend, so stay tuned for that, but here are some numbers from today's release.

First off - changes yoy for 2010 and 2011:

And next, cumulated changes in prices for 2007-2011 period:

Lighter blue are categories that have either full or significant share of prices set or influenced directly by Government policies.

One thing to note: mortgage interest costs which, per CSO data have fallen 10.7% in 2007-2011. Of course, this conceals the fact that since the Irish State took over most of the Irish banking sector, in 2010-2011, mortgage interest costs are up cumulated 28.11%. Over the same period of time, ECB rates have moved from 1.0% in January 2010-March 2011, to 1.25% in April-June 2011, to 1.50% in July-October 2011, to 1.25% in November and 1.0% back in December 2011. In other words, the average rate has gone DOWN from 1.23% in 12 months pre-January 2010 to 1.13% in  24 months since then. And yet, mortgage interest keeps on climbing... up whooping 20.4% in 2011 alone.

Yet another useful comparative that is concealed by the above data is that while mortgage interest costs might be down 11.7% on December 2007, they are up 7.7% on December 2006. Now, in December 2006, ECB rate was 3.5% or 2.5 percentage points above where it was in December 2011.

So let's take a look at slightly longer horizons. Chart below show cumulated price changes between December 2001 and present and December 2006 and present also courtesy of the good folks of CSO.

Again, the same story - the higher the price increases, the more likely we are dealing with directly regulated or state owned enterprises-dominated or state-controlled sector. 

More detailed analysis in my forthcoming Sunday Times piece this week.

11/11/2011: Ireland's Consumer Prices: October

Irish CPI and HICP figures for October show continued pattern of public sector-controlled costs inflation and continued pressures on prices in the domestic economy. Here are the details.

Per chart above, Irish CPI rose from 104.4 in September to 104.7 in October compared to December 2006 when it stood at 100. Re-based to December 2001, October CPI was at 123.6, up on 126.2 in September. Mom CPI rose 0.3% and 3mo change is 0.8%. Annualized rate of change is now 2.8% - the highest since April 2011. All items CPI rose from 2.6% in September to 2.8% in October. 3mo MA is now at 2.53% and 6mo MA is at 2.62%.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices also increased 0.3% mom to 107.1 in October from 106.8 in September. A year ago, index reading was 105.5, so controlling for rounding yoy HICP rose 1.5% in october, up on 1.3% in September and 1% increases in July and August.

 CPI by household budget components was also worrying:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices inflation remained at 1.4% for the third month in a row, with 6mo MA of 1.17% and 3mo MA of 1.4%. In 3mo through October, average price inflation rose 50% on 3mo period through July.
• Alcoholic beverages & tobacco remained in deflation of -0.5% for the fourth month running. 3mo MA is -0.5% and 6mo MA is -0.3, which means we are witnessing slightly accelerating deflation.
• Clothing & footwear posted -0.3% CPI in October, same as in September, down from -1.2% deflation in August. 3mo MA is -0.6% and 6mo MA is -1.2%, so we are seeing some slowdown in deflation.
• Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels posted another double-digit price increase of 10.2% in October, up on CPI of 8.9% in September. 3mo MA CPI is now at 8.77% and 6mo MA CPI is at 9.07%. Largest yoy increases in this category were: 20.5% increase in natural gas prices, 20.3% hike in liquid fuels prices, 18.1% increase in mortgage interest costs, 11.5% rise in electricity prices, and 6.9% price increase for bottled gas.
• Deflation continued to build up in Furnishings, household equipment and maintenance category with CPI of -2.2% in October against -2.3% in August and September. 3mo MA is now at -2.27% and 6mo MA is at -2.37%.
• As far as state-controlled sectors go, Health had another bumper crop year with price increases of 2.3% in October, against CPI of 3.4% in June-September. 3mo MA is at 3.03% and 6mo MA is at 3.42%. Hospital services drove inflation here with annual rate of price change of 9.8%. In contrast, pharmaceutical products prices are down 3.3% yoy in October.
• Transport - another heavily state-controlled or dominated sector also posted robust inflation of 3.6% in October against 4.2% in September. CPI for the sector is now at 3mo MA of 3.67% and 6mo MA of 3.52%. Costs of purchasing vehicles have fallen 4.3% yoy through October, but costs of fuels and lubricants rose 14.5%. Rail transport costs are up 1.8%, Bus fares are up 10.0%, Air transport costs up 5.6% and Sea transport costs up 6.4%.
• Communications CPI in October stood at 1%, same as in previous 2 months. 6mo MA is now at 2.08%.
• Recreation & culture CPI posted -0.8% growth in October, more deflationary that -0.5% in September. 3mo MA is at -0.7% and 6mo MA at -0.65%.
• Education CPI showed the buoyancy of the Celtic Tiger era with 6.5% increase in October on the foot of 12 previous months posting deflation. 3mo MA is now at 1.1% and 6mo MA at -0.1%. THe swing in CPI was a massive 8.1 percentage points. Virtually all inflation in the sector was accounted for by the third level education costs - up 13.4% yoy in October (+13.5% mom). Education costs now run +21.9% ahead of December 2006 level for primary education, +22.7% for second level education, +50.1% for third level education and only +4.7% for Other education & training.
• Restaurants and hotels CPI came in at -0.9% in October from -0.8% in September. 3mo MA is at -0.8% and 6mo MA is at -0.65%. Accommodation services posted the largest deflation of -3.8% mom and -3.0% yoy, with Restaurants, cafes & fast-food posting deflation of -0.2% mom and -1.9% yoy.
• In Miscellaneous Goods and Services category, the only notable changes were: 12.7% yoy increase in insurance costs, broken down into a massive 23.8% yoy rise in Health insurance costs, and 4.2% rise in Transport Insurance costs. Overall, this category costs rose 6.4% yoy in October and 0.5% mom

State-controlled sectors and prices inflation is now running at 1.15% in October, up on 1.03% in September. 3mo MA and 6mo MA for the series are both at 1.0%. In contrast, private sectors prices are rising at 0.51% in October down from 0.55% in September. 3mo MA for these prices increases is 0.50% and 6mo MA is at 0.56%

Cumulative gap between state-controlled sectors prices and private sectors prices from December 2007 through today now stands at 140.51%, up from 139.62% in September.

13/10/2011: CPI for Ireland: September 2011

Consumer prices inflation is now running above 2.5% in Ireland and the usual culprits are to be blamed.

Consumer Prices in September rose +0.3% mom against a decrease of 0.1% recorded in September 2010. As a result, per CSO, "the annual rate of inflation increased to 2.6%, up from 2.2% in August 2011". Annual inflation is now running above 2% target every month since January 2011.

The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for Ireland rose +0.1% in the month, compared to a decrease of 0.2% recorded in September 2011. The annual rate of HICP was 1.3% higher in September compared with September 2010. Annual HICP was running at 1% increases in July and August - the lowest rate of HICP in Europe.

Chart below illustrates:

All Items CPI is now in annual expansion since August 2010. Moderate rates of under 1.7% CPI were exhausted in January 2011 and since then we have entered the period of excessive inflation, especially compared with the overall stagnant domestic demand activity. This means that accelerating price increases are no longer acting to support economic growth, but are compressing already strained household budgets and increasing future pressure on interest rates. It is worth noting that ECB decisions on rates are based on HICP, not CPI, which means that with Euro area HICP at 2.5% in August and July, against HICP rates at or above 2.5% every month since April 2011, the rates direction should be up.

Pert CSO, the most notable changes in the year were:

• Increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas &Other Fuels (+8.9% in September 2011 which comes on top of 8.5% rise in a year to September 2010), Miscellaneous Goods &Services (+6.5%), Transport (+4.2%) and Health (+3.4% - unchanged mom but up yoy in September, against an annual rise of 0.5% in September 2010).
• Decreases in Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-2.3%) and Education (-1.6%).
• The annual rate of inflation for Services was 3.6% in the year to September, while Goods increased by 1.3%.

The most significant monthly price changes were:

• Increases in Clothing & Footwear (+5.4% - mostly due to seasonal effects) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas&Other Fuels (+1.7% - mostly due to mortgages interest costs rising +3.1%mom, liquid fuels (i.e. home heating oil) costs up +1.7%, electricity (+1.6%)).
• Decrease in Transport (-0.7% - primarily due to decreases in airfares which fell 16.9%. Increases were recorded in bus fares (+8.8%), bicycles (+0.4%) and petrol (+0.3%)).

Charts below illustrate:

Charts below detail the rising gap between state-controlled prices and overall CPI as well as the gap between state-controlled prices and private sector prices:

11/08/2011: CPI for July 2011

CSO reported Consumer Prices for July today. Here are some headline numbers and updated charts:

• As measured by the CPI, remained unchanged in the month of July relative to June. There was also no mom change in July of last year. CPI index stood at 103.9 in June and July 2011 relative to December 2006 base and 122.7-122.7 relative to December 2001 base. This compares to index readings of 101.2 in June and July 2010 (2006 base) and 119.4 (2001 base).
  
• As a result of the above monthly movements, the annual rate of inflation remained unchanged at 2.7%.
• The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decreased by 0.2% in the month, compared to a decrease of 0.1% recorded in July of last year. July 2011 HICP index stood at 106.5, down from 106.7 in June, while July 2010 index was 105.4, down from June 2010 reading of 105.5.
  
• The annual HICP inflation was 1.0% in July 2011 relative to July 2010.

• All items CPI, therefore is now running at 2.7% for the third month in a row, down from 3.2% in April 2011. A year ago, All items CPI was showing deflation of -0.1% and July 2010 was the last month of annual deflation in the current crisis period.
  

The most notable changes in the year were increases in

• Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas &Other Fuels (+10.3%) - with significant (over 10%) weight in household spending basket. Increases in this category were led by mortgage interest cost hikes which are now 25.2 up on last year and were 2.3% higher than a month ago (please note, our Financial Regulator and the Gov are not making any concerned statements about mortgages interest costs, while talking about the need to restore lending to the corporate sector). In addition, Electricity is up 4.6% annual, while liquid fuels are up 20.1%. Once again, no concern from the Government, whatsoever, on the issue of these costs increases.
  
• Miscellaneous Goods &Services (+7.2%), driven primarily by hikes in Health Insurance (+21.4% yoy and 0.1% mom). Overall Insurance services costs are now 14.5% up yoy, but down 0.3% mom.
  
• Transport (+3.5%) - also with >10% weight in expenditure basket. Transport costs were primarily driven by 12.8 annual inflation in Fuels & lubricants sub-category (led by 12.6% annual hike in Petrol and 13.7% hike in Diesel), and Transport services (+7.7% yoy and 3.8% mom) where Air transport prices were up 25.0% yoy (+11.8% mom) and Sea transport (+12.5% yoy and 13.3% mom)
  
• Health (+3.4% annual, although there was a decline of 0.1% mom). In this category, Medical products, appliance and equipment sub-category was up 1.4% yoy and down 0.2% mom, while Outpatient services declined 1.1% yoy and 0.1 mom. The real inflation here comes from the Hospital services, where costs are up a massive 9.8% yoy although there was no change mom. Again, I am yet to hear any real concern from the Government on this matter.
  

There were decreases in:

• Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-2.9% - marking 43rd month of annual decreases in prices in this category, starting from January 2008)
  
• Education (-1.3% - 10th consecutive monthly negative annual reading, by no change in mom inflation), although Primary education costs were up 1.3% yoy, while Secondary education costs were up 0.8% yoy
  
• Clothing & Footware (-0.7% - marking 43rd month of annual decreases in prices in this category, starting from January 2008) and
• Restaurants and Hotels (-0.7% - 26th consecutive monthly negative reading).

Inflation in the state-controlled sectors (sectors with either significant presence of regulated semi-state companies and/or state providers - e.g. education - or with significant shares of taxation measures relative to prices of goods and services - e.g. Alcohol Beverages & Tobacco) was running still ahead of private sectors inflation, with state-controlled inflation running at 1.02% annually, against private sectors inflation running at 0.53% in July. Both measures are down on June readings of 1.04% and 0.57% respectively.

Per CSO, "The annual rate of inflation for Services was 4.0% in the year to July, while Goods increased by 1.0%."

09/06/2011: CPI data for May

Consumer Price Inflation data for May is out today. Recall that a month ago, higher mortgage costs and oil prices pushed inflation to a 30-month high, with prices in April up 0.4% mom and 3.2% yoy. This was the second highest rate of annual inflation since 2008. This time around, the catalyst for inflationary pressures was supposed to be mortgages costs, as ECB hike of 25bps in April was expected to feed through to retail rates. CSO is very careful about this aspect of inflation, having issued in the latest release an explanatory note (see below). Market expectation, consistent with my view expressed in December-January issue of Business & Finance magazine, is for inflation to average around 2.8-3.1% in 2011.

Now, on to today's data:

• May CPI rose 0.1% mom - below the markets expectations and below 0.6% mom rise in May 2010. Yoy inflation was at 2.7% in May 2011, again below expectations in the market.
• HICP - omitting, among others, cost of mortgages, car and home insurance, car taxes etc (see CSO note on this in the main release) - posted 0% change mom against 0.3% increase mom in May 2010. Annual HICP rose 1.2% relative to May 2010.

Charts to illustrate - first CPI, then two indices of prices:
In annual terms, largest increases were posted in

• Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels - up 8.5% after posting 11.8% rise in April and 12.5% in March. Within the category, Rents posted a 1.0% decline yoy and 0.1% increase mom, while mortgages interest costs posted a 0.6% mom rise and 20.1% increase yoy. Electricity, gas & other fuels sub-category posted a 1.0% decline mom and 6.6% rise yoy with Liquid fuels falling 3.8% mom and rising 17.9% yoy.
• Miscellaneous Goods & Services posted a 8.4% increase yoy primarily driven by Insurance (+15.9% yoy) of which Health Insurance (+21.6% yoy, but -0.6% mom) was the biggest culprit. Motor car insurance was up 7.6% yoy and 0.7% mom.
• Communications were up 4.1% yoy - driven solely by 4.3% rise yoy in Telephone & communication services.
• Health was up 4.0% yoy - hospital services up 11.4% yoy (no change mom) followed by Pharmaceutical products (+2.5% yoy and 0% change mom)
  

Deflation was recorded in

• Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-1.9% yoy and -0.1% mom) with strong deflationary momentum in Furniture & furnishings (-5.7%), and Major household appliances (-4.0%)
  
• Education - down -1.3%- driven by 1,8% yoy decline in Other education and training and -1.4% drop in Third level education. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Primary education costs rose 1.3% yoy and Second level education costs were up 0.8% yoy.
  

Charts to illustrate these trends:

As usual - an imperfect measure of state v private sector controlled prices - first straight forward state-controlled or dominated or influenced sectors:

Next - an index of prices in two broadly defined sectors:
One point worth making - the above chart clearly shows that inflation has moderated in state-controlled sectors. It remains to be seen if this welcome change mom will translate into a longer term trend.

Finally, a point, as promised above, on the issue of mortgages costs. CSO provides a handy explanation of their terminology on page 10 of the main release, from which I quote here:

"... current approach to measuring mortgage interest in the CPI reflects the situation in the base reference period December 2006 when the standard variable rate was dominant. Subsequently, tracker mortgages have become more popular. This did not give rise to any difficulties while the standard variable and tracker mortgage interest rates moved broadly in line with one another, which would be the normal expectation. However, the decoupling that has taken place since August 2009 has resulted in dramatically different trends emerging. For example, between September 2009 and September 2010 the standard variable rate increased from 2.93% to 3.66% whereas the tracker rate did not change. The Mortgage Interest component of the CPI, which is largely determined by the trend in the standard variable rate, increased by 25.1% as a result and contributed +1.25% to the overall change in the All Items index. It is crudely estimated that the latter impact would have been reduced by between 0.2% and 0.5% had the Mortgage Interest component been calculated on a current weighting basis."

So what CSO are saying is that current mortgages costs metric overstates the overall impact of mortgages costs increases on CPI because more mortgages, since 2006, were issued in the form of tracker mortgages. That's fine, but there is also a sticky problem of the weights assigned to all spending categories, which are all based on December 2006. If since December 2006 the following changes took place:

1. Overall costs of mortgages rose relative to other costs,
2. Home ownership proportion in population rose (which could have been due to emigration out of the country selecting predominantly non-homeowners, for example),
3. There have been significant exits from tracker mortgages and fixed-rate mortgages since 2006 (perhaps due to either selection bias in defaults or due to bias in favor of fixed rate mortgages in maturing mortgages, for example)
   

Then the weights used for this sub-category of spending might be below their current levels, off-setting the above effects of tracker mortgages.

19/03/2011: CPI update for February 2011

Some belated data charts updates. Irish CPI:
The chart above shows the uptick in February CPI (up 0.9%mom and 2.2% yoy) and HICP (up 0.9% mom and 0.9% yoy).

Annualized rates below:
Should we read this as a welcome catch up of prices due to demand changes or due to factory gates tightness? Not really. Take a look at components:

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels up +9.5% yoy, Miscellaneous Goods & Services +4.8%, Health +4.1% and Transport +3.5%. Deflation continued in Clothing & Footwear -4.6%, Education -2.9% and Furnishings, Household Equipment& Routine Household Maintenance -2.6%.

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages prices were up +0.7% mom and +1.2% yoy to February 2011. This compares to deflation of -8.0% yoy in February 2010. Mom, food prices increased by 0.7% while non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 2.0%. So we know it wasn't the commodities prices inflation that drove our food prices. Especially since commodities-linked prices of bread&cereals deflated by -3.8%, other milk products -0.9%, other cereals -0.7%, cheese -0.6% and margarine & low fat spreads -0.5%, while butter rose +3.8%, preserves by +15.3%, as sweets and chocolate fell 1.3%. And so on... all over the place, really.

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels costs increased by 0.5% mom and by 9.5% yoy. There was a decrease of 10.6% yoy to February 2010. Mom, prices rose for liquid fuels (i.e.
home heating oil) +2.7%, materials for maintenance & repair of dwelling +1.5%, rents +1.0% and bottled gas +0.5%. A price decrease was recorded for mortgage interest -0.1%. But wait, yoy rents rose 0% and mortgage interest rose 20.3%. Clearly, credit crunch is raging for homeowners. One of the core remaining construction-related sub-sectors still standing is maintenance & repair of dwelling. This was down 0.1% yoy in terms of materials, but a significant -5.5% in terms of services - so work wages are down, but inputs on materials side is basically flat. Materials were up 1.5% mom and services were flat in February 2011. Given we import much of the former and retain domestically much of the latter, the news of overall monthly inflation in this category is really not good for Irish economy. We got the wrong end of inflation, folks - inflation that undermines our real incomes without supporting new jobs!

Electricity, gas and other fuels were up 10.5% yoy as a category, electricity up 3.2%, natural gas double that at 6.4%, liquid gas up 37.3% yoy. Again, wrong inflation for growth and much of it is due to changes in taxation structures, state companies surcharges and so on.

Health is a standout in the above chart. Down 0.6% mom but up 4.1% yoy. No need to explain why the cost of hospital services rose 11.5% - say 'Thanks' to our semi-state insurance company policies and the Budget, but not for the insurance prices increases - those are in the Miscellaneous Goods & Services where health insurance rose a massive 17.6% yoy and 14.4% mom.

Now - my exclusive - as usual, the breakdown of inflation by state v private sectors:
Or cumulative Rip-Off Government Policies effects:
Yet another legacy of the Social Partnership folks - as the Big Domestic Business (aka semi-states), State Quangonoids and Unions - the Real Golden Circle - take another bite at the economy's pie. The real economy is still on the edge of continued deflation (+0.1% mom), while the surreal Social Partnership-controlled economy is roaring ahead with 1.04% mom inflation, to 2011 fat bonuses. Happy times, as Borat would put it.

Economics 12/8/10: Irish July CPI: Deflation is over, for the State sectors

“Consumer Prices in July, as measured by the CPI, remained unchanged in the month,” says CSO. Hurrah, the end of deflation then? “This compares to a decrease of 0.8% recorded in July of last year. As a result, prices on average, as measured by the CPI, were 0.1% lower in July compared with July 2009.”
Sounds like the good news. But… “The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decreased by 0.1% in the month, compared to a decrease of 0.8% recorded in July of last year. As a result, prices on average, as measured by the HICP, were 1.2% lower in July compared with July 2009.”

Err, of course, HICP excludes the cost of housing. And the cost of housing has been going up in Ireland courtesy of the banks. So let me see:

• Deflation is bad, because it signals lower returns for businesses, induces consumers to save excessively and stops investment;
• Inflation is ok, then, as long as it reverses the three ‘bads’ caused by deflation.
  

So our ‘good news’ of the ending of deflation isn’t good at all, then. Why? Because, per CSO: most notable changes in the year were decreases in (see charts below)

• Clothing & Footwear (-8.5%) - competitive sector;
  
• Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-3.8%) - relatively competitive sector; and
  
• Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-3.4%) - buyers' market.
  

There were increases in

• Education (+9.2%) - state controlled,
  
• Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+5.5%) - state- and banks-controlled, and
  
• Transport (+2.7%) - state-controlled in terms of costs and charges.

Which of course means that prices have risen primarily in state- and banks- controlled sectors. These sectors inflation does not induce businesses to invest (as they are forced to pay higher costs and do not see increased revenue in their core activities), it does not induce people to consume (as they continue to save even more in anticipation of banks coming for their money through mortgages increases) and it does not result in increased returns to productive business activity (as higher costs shrink margins). The CPI excluding mortgage interest showed no change in the month and was down by 1.0% in the year.

Let’s plot that relationship between state-controlled prices and private sector prices, weighted by their respective weights in overall CPI basket:

No further comment needed, I presume.

Economics 09/07/2009: Green Shoots to Brown Manure

Inflation figures are out - more significant deflation in works than was anticipated by the analysts (-0.3% in June relative to May, with annual rate off -5.4% in June against 4.7% in May). We are also diverging from the Eurozone, though no one should really care about that. Mortgage costs reductions (down 5.7% on average in June relative to May) were the largest factor. Public sectors and state-controlled prices are still in inflationary territory, so no surprise here either. My prediction for the annual inflation rate to hit -5.8-6% in Q4 2009 and reach -4.1-4.3% in a year as a whole. Public sector v private sector price differentials should widen by ca 5.5-6%, so the rip-off that is our State controlled economy will continue into 2010.

A decent note on inflation was from the Davy's this time around (sadly, my usual favorite Ulster Bank note was a bit less advanced than customary). Davy: "The good news is that Ireland has closed the gap further with the euro area price level. HICP in the euro area was up 0.2% mom, according to the “flash estimate”, versus no change (+0.0%) here in June. Ireland's price level is slowly but surely re-adjusting towards the euro area-16 level. Note that the gap was a massive 22% in 2008 on average according to Eurostat. It has closed by more than two percentage points since the peak last year and will be below 20% on average at end-2009. We do not think the price levels should necessarily converge (productivity and, hence, income disparities justify a premium), but Ireland's exporting sector – particularly the indigenous part – needs the gap to tighten significantly yet."

Now, not to overplay these trends, one has to be aware of the fact that this is exactly what we are missing in terms of devaluation. Competitiveness, normally restored via dropping one's currency value, would imply the value of the Irish Euro traveling south of the current 20% price gap with the EU and would require a devaluation to the tune of 30%. Why? I don't frankly believe in our superior productivity, so any income differential between Ireland, and say, Germany, should be nominal. We can't do that currency adjustment. Which means that with price deflation taking, say, 6-10% of the Eurozone-Ireland gap away, this leaves a 20-24% decline in wages to take up the slack. Awesome price to pay for the Euro membership.


Production in manufacturing figures for May 2009 are out as well:
Turnover index is down on renewed pressure - sales are stalling again, but production index is up, so is overcapacity looming again?
The two series crossed over in May, so expect production to turn down in summer months and turnover index to stagnate, setting stage for new layoffs should things fail to improve in September. Margins tighten, so workers must be next.

As manufacturing records -1.3% fall in January-May 2009 in annual terms, the rate of decline has indeed slowed, but this can easily be a technical correction before a renewed pressure down. Of course, 18.7% increase in pharma output obscured the reality somewhat. Significantly, other modern sectors posted a 22% drop in output, while domestic sectors recorded 13.8% contraction in 2009 to June 1. Now, recall that Davy eagles have spotted the end of economy-wide recession by pointing to agriculture turn-around. Inclusive of massive subsidies boost to pork producers, food sector output was down 0.4% in the first five months of 2009.

In seasonally adjusted index terms, manufacturing industries now stand at 97.6 - a reading that is bang-on in line with December 2008 (97.4) and February (97.5), marking the third lowest point for the sector since 2005. Turnover indices have hit new spells of deterioration in Manufacturing, Chemicals and Chemical Products, Basic Pharma Products & Preparations, Computer, electronic & Optical Products and Other Manufacturing - in other all sectors but Food Products. Capital goods production index is at the second lowest point since January 2008, Intermediate Goods index is no turning negative again.

In case you need an illustrative proof:
Slightly more interesting day for the US economy.

First, a great salvo from Warren Buffett, who said that as unemployment can hit 11%, the US economy might need a second round of stimulus. To those still looking for those 'green shoots', Buffett's analysis is clear: "We're not in a freefall, but we're not in a recovery either," he told ABC's "Good Morning America. We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behaviour." Buffett compared the 2009 $787 billion stimulus passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in --- it doesn't have really quite the wallop."

Second, US first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 52,000 to 565,000 in the latest weekly data, after seasonal adjustment, while continuing claims hit a record high, as the Labor Department reported. The four-week average of initial claims was down 10,000 to 606,000. The monthly moving average of continuing claims rose 12,000 to a record 6.77mln.

Nouriel Roubini has a superb article in Forbes (here): "The June employment report suggests that the alleged green shoots are mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure." A priceless openning salvo. As Brian Cowen is waiting for the US to pull us out of the depression.