8/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.

Daily averages for each month of the pandemic are summarized in the table below, while daily counts with 7 days average are shown in the charts:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 642.5; and current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 335.2
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 92 percent above that for the EU27.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +62,928.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 100,517 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 to-date is 114,621 higher than that of the EU27.
• The 7-day moving averages of new cases in the EU27 and the U.S. are now almost identical. The EU27 is already in the second wave of the pandemic, but the U.S. is showing signs of the second wave starting, with a significant uptick in the 7-days average since September 12 lows.
• Both, the EU27 and the U.S. deaths counts are now running above the levels at which Winter 2020 lockdowns were imposed.

Meanwhile, American leadership is switching to a new strategy in addressing COVID19, called 'Don't Panic: Get Yerself Covided! Suckers!' https://twitter.com/i/status/1313267615083761665. Which totally makes sense for more than 70 million Americans who cannot afford COVID19 treatment without filing for bankruptcy, and another 30-40 million Americans who cannot medically handle COVID19 because of existing conditions. 

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:

• There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. 
• The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.
• EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world's population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 40% of world's cases and 30% of attributed deaths.
• 8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.
• In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of 'worse-than-average performers' (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks within-average (18th worst performer, if it were a country), the UK ranks 9th worst performer, with Peru remaining the hardest hit country of all countries with > 100,000 cases, with Bolivia second and Belgium third.

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):

Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:

What the numbers above are telling us:

• New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.
• Daily deaths counts are currently at 5,399 for the last 7 days, which is lower than the 30-days average of 5,642, but still well above the historical average of 3,848. Some observers have noted in recent weeks that the deaths curve is down somewhat on the local peak attained around the first week of August. The decline, however, is very shallow and is driven not only by the improved treatment and detection, but also by the changing demographic of new cases (younger and healthier patients becoming impacted). There is, most likely, a residual issue of changes in geographies of new cases, that also impacts reporting and assignment of deaths. In simple terms, core data shows no encouraging trends so far in terms of daily deaths counts: the pandemic's Wave 1 continues. 

The above analysis is reflected in the growth rates. Stripping out some daily volatility, here are 7-day rolling average changes in both deaths and new cases:

The worrying trend in both series shown above is: 

• We are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• October (to-date) growth rates in both series are not only double-digits high, but are well above June-August averages and historical averages. They are also stronger than September averages. Tables below summarise these facts:

I will update other data sets on COVID19 pandemic evolution in subsequent posts, but the global trends clearly show that we are in a continued state of global pandemic still raging unabated.

Note: for those keen on looking at more recent changes, see my prior post on the same subject here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/25920-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. 

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

 

Sweden is not acquiring the fabled 'herd immunity', folks. And other Nordics are now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:

As the figures above show, 

• Sweden has been experiencing a reduction in new cases through the first week of September. This resulted in Swedish daily case counts finally dropping below the numbers reported in other Nordic countries. 
• Since the start of September, Nordics ex-Sweden have entered the second wave of Covid19 pandemic, further exacerbating their relative position compared to Sweden.
• However, Sweden itself is now experiencing the second wave of the pandemic, and Sweden's historical troughs of new cases have remained always higher than the troughs reached by the other Nordic states.
• Both Sweden and the rest of the Nordics continue to enjoy low levels of deaths, however, in line with the numbers of new cases, Nordics ex-Sweden are showing signs of the new wave of the pandemic lifting deaths counts relative to the past troughs.

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 

Russia is now experiencing the second wave of COVID19, although it is still in the early stages of this development:

Russia first started to impose lockdowns around March 2, which lasted through mid-June (an earlier partial lifting of lockdowns in Moscow took place in the first week of June). The lockdowns coincided with much lower daily cases and deaths than are being registered currently, but despite this, Russia is not currently planning to impose stricter controls on social activities in the wake of the accelerating pandemic numbers. The reason for this is the expressed hope that the recently-released vaccine against the COVID19 will be widely available to the general population by November 2020. The vaccine does not have an independent peer-validated confirmation of its effectiveness so far. 

Here is a table summarizing Russia's relative positioning compared to other BRIICS, the EU27 and the U.S.:

Note: data excludes China, for two reasons: (1) China's officially-reported case numbers are less than 100,000, and (2) I have zero credibility in China's officially reported COVID19 statistics, so while questions can and should be raised about robustness of data reported in BRIICS overall, China's data suggests an altogether novel levels of data manipulation compared to its peers.

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher

 Summary tables for 36 countries with 100,000 cases and above:

The U.S. continues to 'lead' the world in terms of sheer magnitude of the pandemic, followed by India, Brazil and Russia. The U.S. also continues to dominate the world tables in the numbers of people who died from the COVID19, followed by Brazil, India and Mexico. 

While the U.S. only accounts for 4.3% of the world population, it accounts for 22% of all cases of COVID19 and 21% of all deaths from the disease. 

Meanwhile, the highest per-capita rate of infections is registered in Quatar, followed by Panama and Peru. The highest per-capita deaths are in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, while the highest mortality rate (deaths per confirmed cases) are in Italy, Mexico and the UK.

Out of all countries with 100K cases and higher, plus the EU27, as ranked based on three criteria (cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case)

• The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer,
• The EU27 ranks 16th worst performer
• The U.S. ranks worse than any EU27 member state in the 100K table, with exception of Spain (ranked 3rd worst).

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating U.S. and EU27 numbers for COVID19 pandemic for the last 7 days:

Per above chart, the U.S. continues to pull away from EU27 in terms of deaths per capita of population. However, as shown in the chart net, EU27 is now in a full-blown contagion wave number 2, with new cases exceeding prior (wave 1) peaks.

The increase in new cases in Europe is now also reflected in rising death counts. Current EU27 death counts are in excess of the numbers that triggered winter shutdown of the European economies.

Key takeaways from the above:

• EU27 is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic, with case numbers well in excess of anything witnessed during the first wave peak.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 3 occasions.
• Despite this, overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above those in the EU27 (as been the case since July 12). Current excess gap at +59,010 up from +40,079 a month ago and +11,917 two months ago. The gap is still rising.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (326.5 currently). U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (619.9 currently).
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 90 percent above that for the EU27 and this gap is still widening.
• Currently, adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 96,000 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 100,500 higher than that of the EU27. 
• Adjustments for differences in demographics between the U.S. and the EU27 would increase the above numbers of excess  mortality even more, while adjusting for the state of public health in the U.S. (obesity, poor nutrition, neglect of chronic conditions etc) will reduce the number. While these factors cannot be directly accounted for in my estimates (I am sure, medical research will be able to do thus), I strongly suspect that the two factors will offset each other. Hence, excess mortality in the U.S. compared to the EU27 stands at around 95-100,000 people. All killed, to a large extent, by the inadequate public health system and policy responses in the U.S.

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

This week's update on worldwide numbers for the pandemic:

New cases are now trending up once again, as the world continues to experience the first wave of the pandemic. 

Meanwhile, new deaths remain relatively stable at highly elevated levels. The local trough in deaths counts that took place at the first week of June is now firmly surpassed and we are still close to the post-trough peak. 

The above conclusions are also confirmed by the growth rates which have ticked up significantly in the second half of September.

To see the trends more clearly:

Key takeaways from the above charts and tables:

• As of 12/09/2020, we have once again surpassed past all-time peak and are currently running at historical highs in terms of new cases.
• Local peak in daily deaths counts was attained in the first week of August. From then on, we are witnessing a mild moderation in daily deaths counts.  
• However, we are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• There is absolutely no evidence of any moderation in the global pandemic numbers, and there are alarming trends in the numbers coming from the geographies that have experienced the most severe first wave of the pandemic prior, namely Europe (see net post on this).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with more than 100,000 cases

 
Some descriptive stats and relative rankings for countries with the largest number of cases:

In terms of relative and population-adjusted performance metrics:

• The U.S. ranks 6th highest in the pandemic extent (number of positive cases per 1 million of population). The EU27 as a whole ranks 23rd highest.
• The U.S. ranks 8th highest in terms of deaths per capita (number of deaths per 1 million of population). The EU 27 ranks 14th highest.
• The U.S. ranks 18th highest in terms of mortality rates (deaths per case). The EU 27 ranks 7th highest. 
• The U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world's population, but the country accounts for 24% of all global cases, and 22% of all deaths. In comparison, the EU27 accounts for 6% of the world's population, 8% of all cases, and 16% of all deaths.
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison (32 sum score) is worse than that of the EU (44 sum score), Italy (35 sum score), Israel (64 sum score), Germany (70 sum score), France (37 sum score), and Canada (51 sum score).
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison is better than that of Spain (23 sum score) and the UK (29 sum score).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating charts for the U.S. and EU27:

• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (321.7 currently).
• U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (604.1 currently).
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +55,593 up from +34,553 a month ago and +6,187 two months ago.
• Currently, adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 92,384 more deaths than the EU27. 
• Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 98,726 higher than that of the EU27.

Big news is that, as stated in prior updates, the EU is now officially in a second wave of pandemic:

Although deaths in the EU remain below prior wave peak, these are rising and, accounting for lags in new cases, are likely to continue to climb:

Meanwhile, the U.S. numbers are starting to show some indicative signs of re-acceleration. If confirmed, the U.S. will also join the EU27 in entering a second wave of the pandemic.

For now, the EU27 continues to exhibit better cumulative case counts and deaths counts than the U.S., in absolute terms and adjusted for population differences and vintage of the pandemic onset.

On a cumulated basis to-date, the U.S. public health system is now responsible for ca 92-99,000 excess deaths compared to the EU27 - deaths that would have been preventable were the U.S. policymakers to give a damn about public health system in America. This should be criminal, but sadly, it appears to be normal. 

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Global cases are now once again on the rise and hitting new historical highs:

Daily deaths are running at elevated levels and showing signs of some uptick on the recent local lows:

As the result, both new cases counts and deaths growth rates are now positive and rising:

In summary, the pandemic continues to rage across the globe, without any moderation. Significantly, there is now a full-blown second wave underway in Europe (more on this later). 

13/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

 I have not updated the controversial comparatives between the Nordics (ex-Sweden) and Sweden in terms of COVID19 pandemic figures for some time now. For those of you who are out of the loop in this controversy, 

• Sweden imposed weak restrictions (basically none) on mobility and work environments in the wake of the pandemic, pursuing the strategy of 'herd immunity';
• Other Nordics imposed severe crack downs on mobility and social and work environments in response to COVID19 pandemic.

There has been a lot of controversy as to the effectiveness of the lack thereof of the Swedish strategy.

So here are the key data trends and points:

Key takeaways from the above:

• As of September 12, Sweden has the total number of 89,377 cases. Nordics ex-Sweden, normalized to the Swedish population size had 35,277 cases, or 39.5% of the total number of Swedish cases. So to-date, Sweden has experienced significantly greater exposure to the virus than its Nordic countries counterparts.
• As of September 12, Sweden has the total number of 5,829 deaths. Nordics ex-Sweden, normalized to the Swedish population size had 2,188 cases, or 37.5% of the total number of Swedish deaths. Sweden also experienced much higher death counts from the pandemic than its Nordic countries counterparts.
• Notably, per first chart above, since 26-27th of August, Nordic ex-Sweden have experienced a rather substantial re-acceleration in new cases, in line with the rest of the EU27 (see more on this here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/12920-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). Sweden is only appearing to show signs of such re-acceleration starting with the end of the first week of September.
• The above change in trends for new cases is yet to translate into change in trends in deaths: in the last 7 days, average daily new deaths for Nordics ex-Sweden, adjusting for population differences, was 0.83. The same number fo Sweden was 1.57. In the prior 14 days, the averages were reversed at 1.034 and 0.571, respectively.

Watch the new wave developing in days ahead... 

13/9/20: COVID19 Update: Russia and BRIICS

 Updating my long-overdue charts for Coronavirus pandemic in Russia:

One worrying trend is the uptick in smoothed data for new cases in the last two weeks and a smaller corresponding increase in new deaths, as noted in the chart above.

Looking at the controversial mortality rates:

To highlight the above, consider the following differences between some key countries/country groups:

Note: China does not enter the comparatives, since it has, officially, less than 100,000 cases to-date.

12/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The global COVID19 pandemic is refusing to go away. Day 247 and the dynamics of new cases and daily deaths remain as worrying as ever, just as the public and the politicians have largely settled into the strange 'ignore and forget' pattern of thinking about the threats.

Here are the daily new cases and deaths charts:

Key takeaways from the above two charts are:

1. There is no amelioration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of new cases: we are still at the peak levels of contagion worldwide.
2. Earlier hopes for decline in new cases worldwide has now been replaced by a re-acceleration in the new cases arrivals.
3. Historical average daily new cases is 115,366. Last 30 days average is 263,940 new cases per day and last 7 days average is 267,832. The pandemic is getting worse, not better.
4. Historical average daily deaths is 3,710. In the last 30 days, the average has been 5,603 and in the last seven days, 5,863. 
5. The peak of daily deaths occurred back in mid-April owing to a number of factors, that can be considered as exceptional. These include heavy concentration of COVID19 cases, lack of medical experience in treating COVID19 cases, demographic biases in early wave of COVID19 cases, and so on. On-trend, the peak was around 7,000 daily deaths.
6. Since the peak, daily deaths counts did not decay beyond the local trough around the end of May - a trough that was less than 50 percent lower than the peak (not an impressive moderation for a pandemic). The trough was set at around 4,050 daily deaths.
7. Since then, however, matters worsened once again, with a new local peak reached at around 6,000 cases in the last week of July. Deaths counts have been bouncing around 5,600-5,700 daily cases since then.

These worrying numbers are confirmed by the dynamics - the rates of change in the series:

As you can see from the chart above, the data is exhibiting a risk of rapid re-acceleration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of both, new case numbers and deaths. Of course, the data is volatile, so it is hard to tell if the new re-acceleration of growth rates to 15.8 and 24.4 percent for new cases and deaths, respectively, is going to hold. Nonetheless, nominally, we are no longer witnessing the second derivative (acceleration) moderating. Which means we are at a risk of rising severity of the already horrific trend. 

Here is a handy summary table of comparative growth rates:

Please note, these are growth rates that are already smoothed by using 7 days average! 

Fir numbers geeks amongst us, here is a summary table of comparatives for 33 countries, plus the EU27, that have more than 100,000 cases reported. Last time I updated these figures on August 30, there were 30 countries in this club.

Due to deterioration in the global pandemic conditions, EU27 is now ranked as an 'average' (statistically) territory. The U.S. remains 'worse than average'. 

The same table by aggregating countries by some internationally-recognized groupings:

And a descriptive statistics table for all countries with > 100,000 cases:

In summary, the pandemic is not going away. We are months before the start of the 'normal' flu season in the Northern Hemisphere, when temperatures outside force much of the activity - work, social, personal - indoors and into closer proximity to others. More inclement weather is coming to the largest concentrations of people on Earth, not only in Europe (already living through the second wave of the pandemic) and North America (still struggling with the first wave), but also to Asia-Pacific and the likes of India (which already outpaced Brazil to the second place in terms of infections after the World Series leader, the US of A). 

The brighter news on the horizon, currently, are the news relating to the vaccines development. But these vaccines are unlikely to hit mass markets any time soon, at least not before the October-November flu season onset.