12/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

After some pause, the latest update for the U.S. vs EU27 Covid19 pandemic comparatives: 

• In summary: the basket case of the U.S. is getting somewhat challenged by the second wave sweeping across Europe, and we are still months away from the traditional flu season.

So here are the details:

As it says on the 'tin': new cases continue to climb in the U.S., albeit at slower pace of daily new additions than before. EU is showing acceleration in new cases growth, but for now, the rate of new cases additions in Europe is still well-behind that of the U.S. 

In terms of deaths per capita, the U.S. continues to pull away from Europe:

Key takeaways from the above graph are:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 590.0 against the EU27's 318.3. Ouch!
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 85 percent above that for the EU27. Going for the double within the next month, based on the trend.
• This means that overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. And things are getting worse: current excess gap is at +52,015 up from +29,428 a month ago and +1,841 two months ago.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 88,868 more deaths (call them the excess deaths) than the EU27. Adjusted for the later onset of the pandemic and population differences, America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 98,786 higher than that of the EU27. Time to blame Obama and China, or, if that fails, Putin.

Daily new case counts:

Daily new deaths counts:

Key takeaways from the last two charts:

• Europe has now entered a full-fledged second wave of contagion.
• This contagion is more widely distributed across countries, which makes it less 'visible' compared to the first wave. 
• Numbers counts in Europe are now at the prior wave's peaks, and massively above the levels that triggered original shutdowns and quarantines. 
• All of the above means that the deaths counts are rising, albeit off low levels, and will continue to rise.
• Meanwhile, in the (misnamed) Land of the Buffalo (yeah, Bison ain't Buffalo, folks) things are not getting better. They are just getting worse slower. 
• U.S. deaths are running at daily rates well-above the first cycle trough, although it is too early to call this a 'second wave', yet. New cases remain very high, albeit significantly off the first wave peak.

A handy comparative table:

Meanwhile, the stock markets are roaring like a drunken Boris in a sauna around hour 2 of steaming.