3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating tables for countries with > 100,000 cases, data through November 3 ECDC reporting:

Both, the U.S. and the EU27 are currently in the new wave of the pandemic (more on this later). That said, across three key metrics: new cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case:

• The EU27 would have ranked 17th worst case in the total group of 51 countries + EU27; the U.S. ranks 8th worst.
• The UK ranks 7th worst.
• Sweden, the 'herd immunity' darling ranks 15th worst across the board, 7th worst in deaths per 1,000 cases, and 16th worst in deaths per 1 million of population. For comparison, the Netherlands ranks 20th worst - the only other Nordic country to make it into the table of countries with > 100,000 cases. 
• Peru, followed by Belgium and Spain are the worst three countries across all metrics (combined).

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is once again re-accelerating worldwide: 

Increasing death counts above the relatively stable trend/average of the prior three months is worrying. Growth rates in new infections and new deaths in October and in the first three days of November are also out of line with past months' experience:

Summary tables:

Despite relative easing of public anxiety over the public health risks, COVID19 pandemic remains on a full-blown expansionary path and the recent dramatic - exponential - rise in new cases, whilst in part driven by improved testing, is now showing signs of lifting up daily deaths counts, with new deaths coming in at above March-September averages in October and in the first days of November.

27/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Quick update to the U.S. vs EU27 charts for COVID19 pandemic:

Key stats:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 690.0
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 370.3
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 86 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now slowly closing (it was 90% a week ago).

• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +67,604. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,869. 
• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 11 occasions

Couple of summary tables:

I covered a recent study from the Columbia University on U.S. excess deaths here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/251020-covid19-us-excess-deaths-are.html. 

25/10/20: COVID19: U.S. Excess Deaths are 130,000 at a lower end of estimates

I have been running EU vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic dynamics for some time now, and as those reading this blog would know,  some months ago I added an estimate - based on mortality figures - of the excess U.S. deaths compared to the EU27. These currently - by my estimate - stand at 114,621 (see latest estimate here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). 

My estimate is crude. It is based on timings, population size and mortality rate adjustments. 

A more accurate recent estimate has been provided by the Columbia University study (https://resiliencesystem.org/columbia-university-says-trump-could-have-avoided-over-130000-covid-19-deaths-more-robust-pandemic) that puts the number at 130,000-210,000 'avoidable deaths'.  That is some range, of course. Per study: "If "the U.S. had followed Canadian policies and protocols, there might have only been 85,192 U.S. deaths – making more than 132,500 American deaths 'avoidable,'" the authors wrote. "If the U.S. response had mirrored that of Germany, the U.S. may have only had 38,457 deaths – leaving 179,260 avoidable deaths."

One way or the other, there are at least 100,000+ Americans dead because of the completely shambolic public health system and policy responses by the current Federal and State leaderships in the U.S. 

Columbia study seems to nail some of these factors: "The country's disproportionate death toll stems from delayed federal action, an insufficient testing regimen, a lack of consistent mask-wearing guidance, and the failure of top officials, notably Trump, to model best practices". Alas, predictably (mythology of the American culture), it misses the elephant in the room: the U.S. healthcare system itself. American approach to distributing access to healthcare based on private insurance (plus Medicare and Medicaid) is leaving tens of millions of Americans outside the basic safety net. Those without insurance as well as countless more with the atrociously large deductibles and co-pays are too afraid to present themselves to the hospitals designed to bankrupt people of modest means to seek early support and help. It matters little how much the U.S. authorities test the public (and, yes, tests are highly rationed, still, despite all the bluster from the White House), if people do not seek help in fear of being destroyed financially. 

In 2020, the average annual deductible for single, individual coverage is $4,364 and $8,439 for family coverage. Co-pay normally ranges 10-40% of the bill, though it is more complicated, since there are various caps and step-downs in co-payments. (https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/resources/individual-and-family/how-much-does-individual-health-insurance-cost#:~:text=Deductibles%20and%20cost%2Dsharing%20expenses,and%20%248%2C439%20for%20family%20coverage.)

The typical American household has an average of $8,863 in  a bank or credit union account. There are serious variations by age and type of household, with couples 34 and younger, couples without children have an average of $4,727 in savings, while single people without children have an average of $2,729 in savings. Couples with children between the age of 35 and 44 have an average of $10,399, couples aged 45-54 with children average $15,589. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/how-much-money-americans-have-in-their-savings-accounts-at-every-age.html)

Meanwhile, the median charge for COVID-19 inpatient care was $45,683 for people aged 51 to 60 and $34,662 for those in the 23 to 30 age bracket, according to a recent study. This was the median billed to people without insurance or those who were forced to be treated out of network. The highest average allowed amount paid to the provider under an insurance plan was $24,012 for people aged 51 to 60 and, at its lowest, $17,094 for people above age 70. (https://www.thehealthcareloop.com/hospitalized-care-for-covid-19-averages-34662-to-45683-varying-by-age/) 

So a person visit for COVID19 treatment, counting lost wages, would wipe out between 1/2 and all of the savings held by average household. Contagion within the family would be a near insolvency event.

Anyone surprised American system is killing the U.S. citizens and residents?

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

My last update on Nordics vs Sweden comparatives was a month ago, although I did post some more recent data trends on Twitter since then. Here are the latest numbers:

New deaths counts are relatively benign, both in Sweden and (at a higher rate) in the rest of the Nordics. However, new daily counts in thee Nordics ex-Sweden are literally out of control as a new, and much larger wave of the pandemic sweeps EU27. 

Sweden entered the second wave of the pandemic with a delay, compared to other European states, so its numbers are still lagging those in other Nordic states. 

I commented on the often-heard argument in favour of Sweden's 'herd immunity' strategy earlier today and you can read it here, if you missed it (bottom of the post): https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-countries-with.html. 

It appears, based on Sweden's (amongst others') experiences, that we really have very limited options in terms of public policy response to the pandemic. My five cents, based on multiple observations of experts' advice: we need 

• Fully enforceable and strongly policed public distancing measures, 
• Mandatory masks in all public places,
• Restricted (though, probably, not banned) access to public commons and public places,
• Effective and wide-spread free testing on demand, 
• Aggressive tracing and strictly enforced quarantines,
• Improved separation of COVID19 patients from all general health facilities (in order to ensure that normal health services provision is not impacted by the pandemic), and
• Significant increase in spending on public health and education so both key sectors of the society can be opened safely and sustainably.

There has to be public and state-level zero-tolerance view toward anyone failing to comply with these measures.  

Anything short of these will result in stop-and-go swings of the pandemic and knee-jerk policy reactions with rolling shutdowns of the entire economies. 

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

Some interesting updates to the league tables for countries with > 100,000. Since the last update, five more countries joined the rather sad club, including Sweden (more on this later), and there are now 47 countries around the world with more than 100,000 cases of the disease recorded. 

The tables below are organized as a heat map, with green cells reporting statistics that put a country in the 'better than average' category, while orange cells marking countries statistically worse than average:

• The EU27 - ranked relative to the countries, though excluded from the national level statistics inputs - is ranked 17th worst in the table.
• The U.S. is now jointly ranked 7th worst with the UK - a one point deterioration in performance for thee U.S. since the earlier update.
• Sweden ranks 15th worst - poorer performance than the EU27, but not by much.
• Globally, the worst impacted country is Peru, followed by Belgium and Bolivia (tied for the 2nd rank), Brazil (4th) and Chile (5th).
• The U.S. accounts for 4.34% of the world population, but holds a steady 20% share of global cases and deaths.
• The EU27 accounts for 5.92% of the world population, and holds 11% of world's cases and 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+ Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 39% of world's cases and 30% of world's deaths.

A note regarding Sweden: it is fashionable these days to advance an argument that Sweden has attained the imaginary 'herd immunity' and has avoided shutdown of the economy while successfully crushing the pandemic. The arguments are absolute dross (more on this in a separate post). Sweden ranks poorly when it comes to absolute numbers and it ranks poorer than the EU27 (even with Sweden included in the EU numbers). 

• Sweden's infection rate is 25th highest in the world, which is basically identical to the EU's ranks of 26th. In actual numbers, Sweden's rate is only 1.68% higher than that of the EU27.
• However, Sweden ranks 15th in the mortality rate per capita of population (575.95 per 1 million of population), where as thee EU27 ranks 19th (361.33 per 1 million of population). Actual rate in Sweden is 59.4% higher than in the EU27.
• Sweden also ranks much worse than the EU27 in the COVID19 deaths per infection rate: Sweden is ranked 8th worst in the world, against the EU27 rank of 12th worst. Sweden has COVID19 mortality rate of 54.5 per 1,000 cases, the EU27 rate is 34.7. 
• Sweden did not shut down its economy. But it is not doing better than all other economies that did. There are a total of 39 advanced economies in the world, including Sweden. In 2020-2021 growth outlook (cumulated forecast over 2 years), Sweden ranks 16th highest growth. Not exactly terribly, but not great either. 
• In 2020-2021, based on IMF's October 2020 forecasts, Sweden's real GDP is expected to end 2021 at 98.59, relative to 100 for the end of 2019. Worse than Norway at 100.62, and Finland at 99.45 and Estonia at 99.07 and Denmark at 98.84, but better than the Netherlands at 98.43.
• Hardly an impressive performance for a 'herd immunity' country that is in more recent weeks enjoying post-peak troughs.

More on Sweden vs Nordics in a separate post to come.

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Things are running out of control in the EU27 and remain out of control in the U.S. of A. Here are the latest daily numbers:

Overall:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 681.7
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 361
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 89 percent above that for the EU27, although this gap is now slowly closing, down from 91% in the prior update
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
• Current excess gap is at +67,397. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,621
• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 7 occasions

Monthly averages tell the story:

• In the U.S. pandemic continues to rage and re-accelerating from August-September slowdown. Deaths are lagging, but still running at elevated levels and are more recently rising once again.
• In the EU27, the pandemic is back with more than a vengeance: daily new cases counts are vastly above anything we have seen in the first wave. Death counts are lagging behind the prior peak, but a re massively above June-September numbers and climbing up.

Shorter-term averages confirm the above analysis:

These dire numbers come on top of already substantial levels of past infections, especially in the U.S., with improved testing and tracing, with improved treatments of cases, with better surveillance and controls in the places of higher concentration of more vulnerable population groups and with all the lessons allegedly learned from the first wave of the pandemic. The fact that we are seeing the massive second wave emerging in Europe and re-acceleration of the trend in the U.S. clearly shows that we have no control over the pandemic.

Expect things to get worse. Much worse. The U.S. is now forecasting 500,000 deaths by the end of 2021. The EU27 has no forecasts, but I will not be surprised if the EU27 pandemic development catches up with that in the U.S. These risks are especially salient in the light of widespread denial and fatigue sweeping both populations when it comes to any serious public health responses to the crisis. 

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating:

New cases numbers have set all-time records in the last two days, and daily counts ranked in top 10 in the last 10 days on eight occasions, with the balance two occasions coming in ranked 13th and 15th, respectively. Despite the rising public complacency and fatigue to the pandemic numbers, globally, we are yet to attain the first peak of the pandemic, suggesting that when this does happen, we are likely to be set for an even worse second wave of infections.

Overall, 7-days average for new infections is at a jaw-dropping 390,097, more than 3 times the historical median and up on the 30-days average of 333,024 cases per day. 

In deaths counts, things are not looking great either.

Globally, new daily deaths counts peaked back in April 2020. This peak was generated by severe lags in reporting past deaths and changes in methodologies for reporting deaths, primarily in Europe, as the world developed statistical tools for tracking deaths and accounting for them. Since then, the more accurate peak took place around the first half of August.

In the months since August local peak, we have seen virtually no meaningful moderation in deaths counts. Current 7 days average of new daily deaths is 5,616 per day, slightly up on the 30 days average of 5,573 - a rather discouraging sign, given rapid improvements in treatments availability and a marked shift of the infections toward younger cohorts of population. Mortality rates per confirmed case are more subdued today, of course, but this is hardly a reflection on any changes in the underlying severity of the diseases, and more likely reflects improved and earlier detections and improved quality of interventions. Interestingly, the new evidence from the second wave sweeping across Europe suggests longer lags between new cases detections and increase in hospitalisations. Despite this lag, however, it now appears that hospitalisations are once again on a rise in the EU27.

Growth rates in new cases and deaths are alarming:

Both, growth rates in new cases and in daily reported deaths are now significantly in excess of anything observed since the flattening out of the growth curve starting with mid-May. October rates of deaths and cases are substantially ahead of September rates, indicating that the pandemic is accelerating, not abating.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

In two previous posts, I have updated data for COVID19 pandemic through October 16 for:

• Global cases and deaths: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html
• Countries with > 100,000 cases: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-countries-with.html

Now, as usual, EU27 vs U.S. comparatives.

Things are getting once again very serious in Europe, of course, which makes this update a bit of change on prior.

So, let's start with cases and daily deaths:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a full-blown second wave of infections. As the result, over October 1-16, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 14 occasions and deaths on 3 occasions.
• The above development is extremely alarming. As the first chart shows, EU27 is setting new records in total numbers of daily cases, records that are running at a rate of 3 times higher daily new cases counts that at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. This will, inevitably, translate into higher levels of deaths in weeks to come. More ominously, current rates of new cases arrivals in the EU27 are bound to overwhelm the healthcare systems of the member states.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. is also seeing increases in new cases, having enjoyed a temporary and short relief from the peak of the second wave around the end of the second week in September. Since then, the U.S. new cases are running at accelerating rates once again.
• In other words, it is time to call the third wave of the pandemic in the U.S.
• Deaths are also on a rising trend, in Europe, while lagging new cases explosion in the U.S.

Table below shows averages by month of both deaths and cases:

• EU27 daily deaths counts are running at the rates more than double of September, more than 3.5 times the rates of August. October so far is the fourth deadliest month in this pandemic for the European Union.
• U.S. daily deaths are the pandemic lows, but still significantly above those in the EEU27.

Overall:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate:  Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 665.4 against the current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 347.9
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 91 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +66,037.
• Currently, adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the U.S. has 114,621 more deaths than the EU27. 
• Meanwhile, owing to the second wave of the pandemic raging in Europe, EU27 member states are starting to go back into lockdown management mode. 

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Worldwide COVID19 developments through October 16 ECDC data were covered in the post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. Now, as usual, time to take a look at the group of countries with more than 100,000 cases.

As always, the table is presented in two parts:

Here are some summary cases:

The above shows relative positions of the U.S., EU27, G7+ Spain, BRIICS+ Turkey in the league standings. The U.S. continues to lead in terms of both deaths and cases impact of the pandemic, accounting for 20% of all global cases and deaths, despite having just over 4.3% of the world's population. Thanks for the new wave of thee pandemic now hitting the EU27, this group of countries has moved from being statistically 'average' to being 'worse than average' to join the U.S. and other heavily-impacted countries. 

Summary of descriptive statistics:

In terms of overall performance, thee U.S. ranks 9th worst in the league of countries with > 100,000 cases, while the EU27, if it was a country of its own, would have ranked 18th. The UK ranks 9th worst, Spain 5th worst. Peru is the worst impacted country with more than 100,000 cases, followed by Belgium in the 2nd place, Bolivia in the 3rd and Brazil in thee 4th.

Stay tuned for my usual in-depth look at the U.S. vs EU27.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Based on the ECDC data through October 16, 2020, here are the latest COVID19 pandemic numbers worldwide:

Cases:

• As of October 16, there were 38,941,034 cases identified world-wide. 
• The rate of new cases arrivals 338,793 per day over the last 7 days, which is above the 30-days average of 311,074.
• Since the start of October, there were 8 days with daily counts ranked within the top 10 highest in the entire history of the pandemic.
• The rate of new cases arrivals rose to a massive 21.2 percent in October to-date, almost 50% higher than the average daily growth rate in September, almost 50 times the rate of new cases growth in August, and more than double the rate of growth in June-July.
• All of the above clearly indicates that, globally, we are still in the acceleration phase of the first wave of COVID19 pandemic.

Deaths:

• The slight reduction in daily counts we've seen between the first week of August and the end of September is now fully exhausted. 
• Over the last 7 days, daily death counts averaged 5,135 worldwide, which is slightly below the 30-days average of 5,486,  but rising once again.
• October (to-date) average daily growth rate in deaths is 17.62%, which is massive, compared to September's 9.99%, and to falling rate of -2.41% recorded in August. October rate is so far three times higher than June-July rate.
• Note that October to-date rate of growth in new cases is pretty close to the rate of growth in new deaths. This is worrying, because it seems to contradict some claims made in the media about allegedly rapidly declining mortality of COVID19.

Net: rates of growth:

You can see the trends discussed above in the chart: from April through July, we witness sustained case of daily deaths growth rates running below the new cases growth rates. Starting with the fourth week of July, this relationship breaks down. 

The above fact suggests that it is too premature to claim that COVID19 pandemic is on track to containment: both cases and deaths numbers indicate that the global pandemic has returned to an accelerating phase of its dynamics, 

8/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.

Daily averages for each month of the pandemic are summarized in the table below, while daily counts with 7 days average are shown in the charts:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 642.5; and current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 335.2
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 92 percent above that for the EU27.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +62,928.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 100,517 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 to-date is 114,621 higher than that of the EU27.
• The 7-day moving averages of new cases in the EU27 and the U.S. are now almost identical. The EU27 is already in the second wave of the pandemic, but the U.S. is showing signs of the second wave starting, with a significant uptick in the 7-days average since September 12 lows.
• Both, the EU27 and the U.S. deaths counts are now running above the levels at which Winter 2020 lockdowns were imposed.

Meanwhile, American leadership is switching to a new strategy in addressing COVID19, called 'Don't Panic: Get Yerself Covided! Suckers!' https://twitter.com/i/status/1313267615083761665. Which totally makes sense for more than 70 million Americans who cannot afford COVID19 treatment without filing for bankruptcy, and another 30-40 million Americans who cannot medically handle COVID19 because of existing conditions. 

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 

Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:

• There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. 
• The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.
• EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world's population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world's deaths.
• BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 40% of world's cases and 30% of attributed deaths.
• 8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.
• In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of 'worse-than-average performers' (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks within-average (18th worst performer, if it were a country), the UK ranks 9th worst performer, with Peru remaining the hardest hit country of all countries with > 100,000 cases, with Bolivia second and Belgium third.

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):

Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:

What the numbers above are telling us:

• New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.
• Daily deaths counts are currently at 5,399 for the last 7 days, which is lower than the 30-days average of 5,642, but still well above the historical average of 3,848. Some observers have noted in recent weeks that the deaths curve is down somewhat on the local peak attained around the first week of August. The decline, however, is very shallow and is driven not only by the improved treatment and detection, but also by the changing demographic of new cases (younger and healthier patients becoming impacted). There is, most likely, a residual issue of changes in geographies of new cases, that also impacts reporting and assignment of deaths. In simple terms, core data shows no encouraging trends so far in terms of daily deaths counts: the pandemic's Wave 1 continues. 

The above analysis is reflected in the growth rates. Stripping out some daily volatility, here are 7-day rolling average changes in both deaths and new cases:

The worrying trend in both series shown above is: 

• We are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• October (to-date) growth rates in both series are not only double-digits high, but are well above June-August averages and historical averages. They are also stronger than September averages. Tables below summarise these facts:

I will update other data sets on COVID19 pandemic evolution in subsequent posts, but the global trends clearly show that we are in a continued state of global pandemic still raging unabated.

Note: for those keen on looking at more recent changes, see my prior post on the same subject here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/25920-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. 

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

 

Sweden is not acquiring the fabled 'herd immunity', folks. And other Nordics are now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic:

As the figures above show, 

• Sweden has been experiencing a reduction in new cases through the first week of September. This resulted in Swedish daily case counts finally dropping below the numbers reported in other Nordic countries. 
• Since the start of September, Nordics ex-Sweden have entered the second wave of Covid19 pandemic, further exacerbating their relative position compared to Sweden.
• However, Sweden itself is now experiencing the second wave of the pandemic, and Sweden's historical troughs of new cases have remained always higher than the troughs reached by the other Nordic states.
• Both Sweden and the rest of the Nordics continue to enjoy low levels of deaths, however, in line with the numbers of new cases, Nordics ex-Sweden are showing signs of the new wave of the pandemic lifting deaths counts relative to the past troughs.