Tuesday, December 23, 2014

23/12/2014: Eurocoin Growth Indicator: Q4 misery continues in December


Euro area lead growth indicator Eurocoin posted a rather predictable rise in December - from a miserable 0.06 in November (roughly translating into 0% growth) to a rather miserable 0.11 (roughly still translating into 0% growth).

The rise was driven by stock markets improvements and lower rate of contraction in Industrial Production, plus a gain in the European Commission-measured Business Sentiment (that roughly contrasted the deteriorating growth signalled by the PMIs). Consumer surveys continue to disappoint, but exports posted a pick up.

So where we are in growth forecast terms?


As the above shows, growth forecast is running at 0.1% real GDP expansion for Q4 2014.

With Q4 2014 average eurocoin reading at 0.083 and 6mo average at 0.14, we are well below 0.24 3mo average for Q4 2013 and well below the rather poorly 0.33 historical average.

ECB is still caught in the zero-rates trap:


And longer term growth rates are, well, not impressive at all and slowing down:


All in, an ugly picture of euro area economic performance.
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