9/1/19: Banca Carige & the Promise of Euro Banks Insolvency Resolution Regime

Italy has been the testing ground for the European regulatory framework for resolution of insolvent banks for several years, running. In all past sagas, the framework has been shown to fall short of protecting the taxpayers from the risk contagion loops that dominated the banking sector insolvency resolution regimes during the Global Financial Crisis. And the latest problem bank, Carige, is no exception.

Per latest reports (https://www.ft.com/content/b9fe3384-1427-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e) the Italian Government is pushing toward nationalization of the troubled lender in need of at least EUR400 million in fresh capital - capital it can't raise in the markets. The Government is also set to guarantee new bonds sold by Carige.

Carige assets of ca EUR25 billion are set against current capitalization of just EUR84 million. Per V-Lab data, Banca Carige is suffering from a massive spike in liquidity risk, with illiquidity index (a measure of liquidity risk) spiking to its highest levels in more than 21 years:

In late December, the ECB has taken the unprecedented step of placing Banca Carige in temporary administration, with administrators given three-month mandate to reduce balance sheet risks and arrange sale/merger/takeover of the bank. As a part of this work, the administrators are trying to review the Italian Government guarantee (issued in December) that led to the Italian deposits guarantee fund (FITD) purchasing EUR320 million of Carige's bonds.  In a notable development, the purchased bonds are potentially convertible into equity in an event of Carige's capital levels falling below regulatory threshold. In other words, these are CoCo-type bonds, implying the state fund is carrying the entire risk of Carige's future capital breaches. Beyond this, there are on-going talks with the Government on the possible SGA SpA (state-owned bad assets fund) purchase of some of the Banca Carige's non-performing assets. As an important aside, the existent bondholders in Carige are not subject to the bail-in rules the EU has put forward as the core measure for reforming banking sector insolvency regime.

These guarantees, buy-ins into Carige's bonds, lack of bondholders bail-in, and potential purchases of the bank's troubled loans constitute a de facto bailout of the bank using sovereign (taxpayers) funds. In other words, the European banking insolvency regime core promise - of shielding taxpayers from the costs of banks bailouts - is simply an empty one.

17/2/16: Another Germanic policy straightjacket

My comment on the Germany's "Sages" proposal for sovereign bonds bail-ins rule for Portugal's Expresso: http://expresso.sapo.pt/economia/2016-02-16-Risco-de-um-ataque-especulativo-as-dividas-dos-perifericos.

In English unedited:

The proposed 'sovereign bail-in' mechanism represents another dysfunctional response to the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area. The mechanism de facto exposes sovereigns locked in a currency union to the full extent of monetary and fiscal risks that reside outside their control, while reinforcing the risks arising from their inability to control their own monetary policies.

Under the current system, a run on the sovereign debt in the markets for any individual state can be backstopped via ESM as a lender of last resort. In a normally functioning currency union, such a run can be backstopped also via monetary policy and fiscal mechanisms.

In contrast, within the proposed bail-in system, both the ESM and the monetary policy become unavailable when it comes to securing a backstop against a market shock. The full extent of a run on Government bond for a member state will befall the fiscal authorities of the member state - aka the taxpayers who will end up paying for bonds bail-ins through higher yields of Government debt and fiscal squeeze on expenditure and taxation.

In theory, a bail-in mechanism for sovereign debt can be implemented in the presence of three key conditions:

• firstly, the implementing country must have control over its own monetary policy; 
• secondly, the implementing country must have benign debt levels and low reliance on concentrated holdings of its debt, especially in the systemically important institutions (for example by a handful of larger banks); and 
• thirdly, the implementing country must have strong fiscal balancesheet to absorb shocks of risk-repricing during the period of bail-in rule introduction. 

None of these conditions are satisfied by the Euro 'periphery' states today, nor are likely to be satisfied by them in the foreseeable future. At least two of the three necessary conditions are not satisfied by the vast majority of the Euro area states at the moment and are also unlikely to be satisfied by them in the foreseeable future.

In a sense, we are witnessing another attempt to put Euro area into a Germanic policy straightjacket in a hope that this time around, the outcome will be different and that bail-ins rules will fix the unresolvable dilemmas inherent in the Euro design. It is a vain hope and a futile exercise that is creating more risks in exchange for no tangible gain.

13/1/16: Bail-ins in Europe: Have Some Fun, Legal Eagles…

In a recent article for Forbes, In Europe, 2016 Will Be The Year Of Lawsuits, Frances Coppola neatly summed up the problem of the EU’s attempts to structure a functional bail-in mechanism for failing banks resolution regime.

I covered to topic in a number of previous posts here (the more recent one). But as the first days of the New Year are rolling in, the problem is becoming apparent.

FT covered the problem with Portugal’s Novo Banco bail in here. Summing up the case: “Europe’s new regime for winding up failing banks has made an inauspicious start, as investors lashed out at the European Central Bank for allowing Portugal to impose losses on almost €2bn of senior bondholders in Novo Banco”.

And beyond Portugal, there is the case of Austria’s attempt to reduce burden on taxpayers from bailing out Hypo Alpe Adria via “imposing losses on bondholders through a reversal of guarantees given by the province of Carinthia”. Back in July 2014, the whole house of cards that is Europe’s ‘no-bail-outs’ promise of the new regulatory architecture was taken down by the Austrian court ruling that ex post bail ins of bondholders can’t be done. Which rounds things from the impossibility of ex post bail-ins to the impossibility of ex ante bail-ins.

And then there is the case of the Cypriot banks’ depositors bail-ins of 2012 that is about to start going.  A reminder of the case: “The EU initially agreed to provide bank recapitalisation assistance as it was necessary to safeguard the Eurozone, but in March 2013 the European Commission and the European Central Bank relented and set new conditions for providing financial assistance that involved depriving depositors of Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki Bank) of all their savings – except the government-guaranteed amount of €100,000 – and in the case of Bank of Cyprus of 47% of uninsured deposits. The EU’S change of mind was unprecedented and unexpected because bank deposits are regarded as sacrosanct. …The EU was not prepared to assist depositors in Cyprus with €7 billion because the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was not satisfied Cyprus could sustain such a debt.”

One must also remember the role of the European ‘regulators’ in all of this mess. Take the Bank of Cyprus. It passed EU banks stress tests just before it crashed and burned in a subsequent bail-out and bail-in to the tune of €23 billion to the taxpayer and a 47.5% haircut on deposits over €100k.

It looks like 2016 is going to be a fun year for European financial sector ‘reforms’ and a stimulus to the legal profession. All paid for by the taxpayers, of course.

4/7/15: Timeline for Greece and Some Anchoring

Greece timeline for the weekend:

Greece has missed the IMF and ECB payments this week with both non-payments having potential for triggering a mother of all defaults for Greece: the ESM/EFSF loans call-in (EUR145bn worth of debt).

The EFSF/ESM decision so far has been to 'ignore' the arrears, noting that non-payment to IMF qualifies as "an event of default":

"The Board of Directors of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) decided today to opt for a Reservation of Rights on EFSF loans to Greece, after the non-payment of Greece to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Following the IMF Managing Director's notification of the IMF Executive Board, this non-payment results in an Event of Default by Greece, according to EFSF financial agreements with Greece."

Greece owes the EFSF EUR109.1bn in "Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement" loans, plus EUR5.5bn in "Bond Interest Facility Agreement" loans and EUR30bn more in "Private Sector Involvement Facility Agreement" loans.

For now, EFSF decided not to call in loans, preferring to wait for Sunday vote outcome. Per EFSF statement: "In line with a recommendation by the EFSF's CEO Klaus Regling, the EFSF Board of Directors decided not to request immediate repayment of its loans nor to waive its right to action – the other two possible options. By issuing a Reservation of Rights, the EFSF keeps all its options open as a creditor as events in Greece evolve. The situation will be continuously monitored and the EFSF will consider its position regularly."

A 'No' vote in the Sunday referendum can change that overnight.

This adds pressure on Greece to pass a 'Yes' vote - a pressure that is most publicly crystallised in the form of ECB refusal to lift ELA to Greek banks. Athens imposition of capital controls (limiting severely cash withdrawals from the banks) has meant that the current level of ELA (CHART below) is still sufficient to hold the bank run, but the ELA cushion remaining in Greek banks was estimated at EUR500mln at the start of this week. Even with capital controls in place, this would have dwindled to around EUR250-300mln by the week end.

Again, a 'No' vote in the referendum risks crashing Greek banks as ECB will be unlikely to lift ELA any more. In an indirect sign of this, the ECB appears to be setting up swap lines and euro credit lines for EU member states outside the euro area. For example, as reported by Bloomberg, "European Central Bank is set to extend a backstop facility to Bulgaria and is ready to assist other nations in the region to ward off contagion from Greece, according to people familiar with the situation". Such a move is a clear precautionary measure to put into place firewalls around Greek system.

Meanwhile, here is a report suggesting that Greek banks are preparing for an aggressive bail-in of deposits in the case of a 'No' vote (assuming ELA cut off):

The Government denied the reports of preparations of bail-ins, and continues to insist that the banks will reopen on Tuesday, a day after the referendum results are published, but it is hard to imagine how this can be done (unless the banks start trading in drachma) without ECB hiking ELA, and it is even harder to imagine how ECB can hike ELA in current conditions.

Source: TheodoreZ

So far, public opinion polls in Greece show very tight vote for Sunday. The latest GPO poll has the "Yes" vote at 44.1% and "No" at 43.7%. Alco poll puts the “Yes” figure at 41.7% against 41.1% for “No”. All together, four opinion polls published yesterday put the 'Yes' vote marginally ahead, another poll fifth put the 'No' camp 0.5 percent in front. All polls results were well within the margin of error. At the same time, majority of polls also show Greeks favouring remaining in the euro by a roughly 75 percent margin.

REFERENDUM TIMELINE
Sunday 5th July:
Polls open – 0500BST/0000EDT
Polls close – 1700BST/1200EDT

First exit poll – Shortly after 1700BST/1200EDT

~20% of votes counted – 1900BST/1300EDT
~50% of votes counted – 2100BST/1600EDT
~70% of votes counted – 2200BST/1700EDT (markets open)
~90% of votes counted – 0000BST/1900EDT

Timeline source: Trading Signal Labs

The build up of tension ahead of the Sunday poll has been immense. Even international bodies are being convulsed by the potential for a 'No' vote. So much so, that, as reported by a number of media outlets, there was a major cat fight between European members of the IMF and other IMF board members.

As reported by Reuters at Wednesday board meeting of the IMF, European members of the board attempted to block IMF from publishing its analysis of debt sustainability for Greece.

Quoting from the report: ""It wasn't an easy decision," an IMF source involved in the debate over publication said. "We are not living in an ivory tower here. But the EU has to understand that not everything can be decided based on their own imperatives." The board had considered all arguments, including the risk that the document would be politicized, but the prevailing view was that all the evidence and figures should be laid out transparently before the referendum. "Facts are stubborn. You can't hide the facts because they may be exploited," the IMF source said."

If only European members of the IMF Board were as concerned with the reality of the Greek crisis on the ground as they are concerned with the appearances and public disclosures of that reality.

A neat reminder of how bad things are in Greece today, via @RBS_Economics

Source: @RBS_Economics

As numbers tell, Greece has posted one of the worst collapses in economy for any advanced economy since 1870, fourth worst for periods outside WW1 and WW2.


So what to expect?

• In the event of a 'Yes' we are likely to see a significant bounce in the markets from the current levels, with euro strengthening on the news in the short run. But real re-pricing will only take place when there is more clarity on post-referendum bailout agreement. The key risk to that outlook is that a 'Yes' vote can trigger early elections - which will (1) extend the current mess for at least another 1-2 months, and (2) put new sources of uncertainty forward - as outcome of such elections will be highly unpredictable. I do not expect the EU to re-start new deal negotiations until after the elections, which means that there will be mounting, not abating pressures on the Greek voters to vote in 'the right' Government, acceptable to the Troika.
• In the event of a 'No' we are likely to see serious run on the markets in Greece and some 'peripheral' states, especially Italy. Greek capital controls will have to be stepped up significantly. Euro is likely to weaken in the short run, especially if ECB aggressively moves to monetise risks via both accelerated QE purchases and lending to non-euro banks.

Beyond these two possible scenarios, everything else is in the realm of wild speculation.

16/4/2014: EU Parliament Passes Bail-ins, SRM and MiFID2

So the EU Parliament voted in the three proposals relating to banking sector 'reforms' in the EU. These included

1. SRM set up - a EUR55bn Single Resolution Fund to be used as the last line of defence in the future banking crises. Here is an earlier note on how effective that will be in stopping bank runs: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/11122013-europe-have-any-firepower-for.html You can see recent assessment of the directive by the IMF and myself here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/03/1532013-imf-assessment-of-euro-area.html
2. Bank Restructuring and Resolution Directive - a directive that amongst other things sets the first line of defence at shareholders' bail-ins, followed by debt and depositors' bail-ins. That's right, depositors' bail-ins. And do note, the rabbit hole doesn't stop there - see box out here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/1822014-wither-irish-manufacturing-not.html
3. Bail-ins are now not just 'on the horizon' but are de jure a law. All depositors over EUR100,000 (the maximum amount for which bank deposits guarantee is allowed) will be at risk. The law requires depositors and bondholders to absorb the second hit to the minimum of 8 percent of total bank's liabilities.
4. As Reuters recently reported, non-performing loans not covered by provisions currently make up ca 1/3 of equity across the top 20 banks in the euro area. And that is after massive waves of deleveraging, recapitalisations and equity rebuilding that took place since 2008, or over the last 5 years plus. Now imagine the likelihood of the next crisis requiring exhaustion of equity to regulatory minimum and subsequent call on depositors. Pretty darn high. You can read Reuters analysis here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-banks-tests-provisions-idUSBREA3E07F20140415 and see this handy infographic: http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2014_04_14_11_05_b27f82d139834fd1a98af554e6aade90_PRIMARY.jpg
5. In addition to the above, the Parliament also passed the directive establishing the European Securities and Markets Authority - a Paris-based body in charge of regulating trading and other activities in the markets, and the revamped amended MiFID2. This sets up the basic terms for regulating trading in securities and derivatives and contains new rules for trading commodities, OTC derivatives and HFT. ESMA is now empowered to write some 175 new rules to deploy MiFID2 and the proposals for these are due in May. One key area of regulation will cover HF traders, with all market traders requiring to register as either market participants or HF traders, as well as disclose their strategies.

Note: unlike other mainstream media reports (see, for example, NYT piece here: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/16/business/international/european-parliament-approves-laws-on-banking-overhaul.html), Irish Times does not even mention the bail-in mechanism for depositors: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/european-parliament-passes-key-reforms-on-derivatives-and-banking-union-rules-1.1763135

18/2/2014: Wither Irish manufacturing? Not so fast! Sunday Times, February 2

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times  column from February 2, 2014


The news flow was mixed in recent days when it comes to covering Irish economy.

After a massive boost of consumer confidence and a maelstrom of media spin extolling the expected rebound in Christmas season sales, December retail sector statistics came in as a disappointment. Over the entire Q4 2013, core retail sales (excluding motors) were up just 1.1 percent year on year in terms of volume and down 0.5 percent in value. Profit margins in services sectors have shrunk once again in the third quarter and with them, non-financial services sectors activity also slumped in the five months through November 2013.

One bright spot, however, was the return to growth in industrial production. Based on 5 months data through November, in the second half of 2013 industrial output was up 1.2 percent year on year in Traditional sectors and up 3.3 percent in Modern sectors.


This latter bit of news highlights the potential for the sector to play a more active role in delivering long-term source of growth in Irish economy.

Over the second half of 2013, using data through November, Irish manufacturing activity rose 3 percent in volume and 0.1 percent in turnover terms. The improvement in output was largely driven by the MNCs-dominated modern sectors. However, it was also supported by positive performance in domestic sectors, such as food, basic and fabricated metals, and capital and core consumer goods. All in, H2 2013 marked a positive break in the previously negative trend across a number of manufacturing sectors. And this change was even more substantial when one takes out downward pressures exerted on the 2011-2013 figures by the pharmaceuticals, where patents cliff continues to cut into output and revenues of major MNCs operating from Ireland.

Adding to good news, capital goods sectors growth signaled the restart in domestic and international investment cycle. And this confirmed the earlier data on capital acquisitions in the industry.

The latest data is now starting to feed through to official forecasts. This week, the Central Bank upgraded 2014 and 2015 outlook for Irish economy. Specifically, the Central Bank is now projecting investment growth of 8.9 percent in 2014 against 0.1% estimated growth in 2013. Crucially, investment in machinery and equipment, having declined 10 percent in 2013 is now forecast to rise 7 percent in 2014.


The news of the quiet out-of-media-sight stabilisation in the Irish manufacturing is welcome because our exports and economy at large are still heavily dependent on industrial and manufacturing sectors activity.  This news is also positive because manufacturing sectors are responsible for high quality jobs creation and hold a significant potential for Ireland in developing a long-term sustainable economic growth model in the future.  In 2013, weekly earnings in industry were the third highest of all private sectors in Ireland and carried a premium of 33 percent on average private sector earnings.

Beyond the above reasons, there are two basic arguments as to why the latest manufacturing trends are encouraging in the context of sustainable economic development.

The first one is a push-factor, driving Ireland in the direction of the new manufacturing.

Worldwide, we are witnessing a new trend in manufacturing. In the commoditised manufacturing geared toward mass-market supply, global supply chains continue to drive down margins and costs, necessitating ever-increasing degree of automation and labour cost reductions. This trend covers a wide range of goods, such as generic consumer goods and intermediate goods production, ranging from textiles and clothing, to consumer electronics, and basic materials industries. Here, robots are increasingly displacing workers. For example, the McKinsey Global Institute study published this month projects that by 2025 up to 25 percent of the tasks performed by industrial workers in developed countries and up to 15 percent in developing countries will be at a risk of replacement by automated systems.

Meanwhile, highly specialist, customised manufacturing, where the businesses processes are dominated by user-unique design and/or proximity to customers, are seeing development costs and time-to-build lags becoming the main points of competition between producers. Actual production in these sectors is based on high precision and skills flexibility and these drivers are pushing for on-shoring of these sectors to the economies with requisite skills and talent infrastructure. The examples of such manufacturing sub-sectors are also numerous, spanning customised precision equipment manufacturing, professional equipment design and production, medical devices, customised medical equipment, individualised or specialist medicines, technology-intensive and complex machinery, but also high value-added consumer goods. Ireland has some limited experience in this area, with companies such as Mincon and Mainstay Medical, Outsource Technical Concepts and others. And we are witnessing growth in design-rich consumer goods areas, such as homewares, personal accessories and higher value-added foods.

I covered these trends in my recent presentation at the TEDxDublin in September 2013 and over the last three months, major consultancies, such as McKinsey and the Institute for Business Value, IBM have written on the topic.


The second factor is the pull-factor of the opportunities presented by new manufacturing.

The crucial point for Ireland is that this trend offers smaller economies a comparative advantage over larger manufacturing centres, as long as the smaller economies can create, attract, retain and enable core human capital.

The competitive advantage of skills-intensive manufacturing is anchored to traditions of high quality specialist production in the country, and to the innovative and entrepreneurial capacity of the economies. Here, examples of Switzerland, Northern Italy, Germany, Holland, Sweden, Denmark and Finland offer a significant promise for countries like Ireland.

In fact, our immediate neighbours industrial policy platform is now firmly focused on enhancing the connection between industrial design, consumer innovation and manufacturing. This is well-anchored in the UK’s Design Council initiatives and in the Government programmes aiming to systemically increase the role of industrial design in the UK manufacturing. Most recently, Government report “Future of manufacturing: a new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK”, published in October 2013 stresses the importance of merging skills, design and technological innovation in driving the future industrial policy in the UK.


To deliver on this potential, our industrial policy needs to be enhanced further to stimulate growth in entrepreneurship in manufacturing. We also need policies that more closely align product, process and design innovation and R&D, especially within indigenous and traditional sectors.

Skills training in manufacturing should be boosted via a targeted apprenticeship programme that develops key expertise and provides support for training both in Ireland and abroad. Our supports for development of manufacturing clusters in traditional industries need to become more pro-active, providing shared sales and marketing platforms for smaller producers.

We can start by consolidating various promotional agencies under the cover of Enterprise Ireland in order to reduce trade and investment facilitation bureaucracy, while increasing resources available on the ground in the foreign markets. Aligning Enterprise Ireland’s pay and promotion systems with tangible longer-term outcomes for indigenous entrepreneurs and exporters should be considered. The overall thrust of reforms should be on reducing duplication and complexity of the system.

Recent report by the Entrepreneurship Forum, published earlier this month outlined a number of measures aimed at helping the unemployed and underemployed to transition into entrepreneurship. These include reducing the eligibility period for the Back to Work Enterprise allowances and creating an entrepreneurship internship programmes. Beyond this, focused incubation and co-working centres targeting manufacturing entrepreneurs can help develop new capabilities and generate new startups. Aligning these programmes with vertical market access accelerators set up in key cities can help enhancing growth potential of indigenous high value-added entrepreneurship. The above programmes can also stimulate inflow of key talent into the country from abroad, including entrepreneurial talent. One of the core benefits of high value-added manufacturing is that the jobs created and capital investment made in this sector are much better anchored in the economy than comparable outlays undertaken in services sectors.

To simultaneously enhance incentives to undertake entrepreneurial activities and to invest time, effort, talent and funding in such activities, employee stock ownership should be encouraged. Over the recent years, this column has repeatedly argued for a reform of tax codes applying to employee share ownership in startups and SMEs. The Entrepreneurship Forum report echoed these ideas.

Driving growth across the design-rich and R&D-intensive manufacturing will also require managerial talent. Looking across the sectors, Irish management skills are the strongest in the externally trading traditional industries, such as food, beverages, and building and construction services. Here, the pressures of global competition, coupled with the acute need to build exports bases have driven management to adopt lean and effective M&A and organic growth models. Management track record of companies such as CRH, Glanbia, Kerry Group and Ryanair presents the best practices in their sectors that can and should be brought to enterprises in much earlier stages of development.


The encouraging signals from Irish manufacturing suggest that we can put our indigenous economy on an evolutionary path toward ever-increasing reliance on radical technological innovation, design and creativity. This path is closely aligned with the need to develop new models of entrepreneurship that combine disruptive technologies with cultural, managerial and skills-rich talent. The key to success here will be in developing greater agility and flexibility of all systems: from crowdsourcing networks for new product development, to training and education, to data analytics for gauging new demand and to new market access platforms.

Box-out:

This Monday, in its monthly report, Germany's Bundesbank stated that in future crises, countries requiring international assistance should first impose a one-off capital tax on net assets of its own citizens, before any international assistance can be extended to them. In the view of the Bundesbank, a capital tax reflects the principle that "tax payers are responsible for their government's obligations before solidarity of other states is required". These latest musings about the need for a capital or wealth tax come on foot of October 2013 IMF report that estimated that reducing euro area's debt levels to 2007 levels will require a 10 percent tax on net wealth of the euro area residents. Neither the IMF, nor Bundesbank identify explicitly specific assets to which the tax should apply. Alas, past experience with Cyprus suggests that such a tax will most likely take the form of a levy on household deposits. Logically, all other assets held by the households are already either heavily taxed, or illiquid. Property taxes are in place in majority of countries and it is hard to imagine every household being able to come up with cash to cover 10 percent levy on their assets values without being forced to sell their homes. Equity and investment funds are de facto illiquid, as a large scale sell-off of these assets in a distressed economy will trigger a crisis hardly any better than the one the levy will be trying to cure. Business equity is notoriously illiquid. Which leaves deposits as the only readily available cash sitting on captive banks balancesheets. In short, Bundesbank and the IMF might be talking about 'capital levies' and solidarity, but all they really mean are deposits bail-ins and loading pain onto taxpayers. That's one way to underwrite inherently faulty and unstable common currency zone.

3/12/2013: GoldCore research note on deposits bail-ins

GoldCore have published an insightful guide to banks bail-ins of depositors that the EU is rapidly falling toward as a default policy for resolving future banks crises.

Here's an inforgraphic from the report:
http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_03-12-13.png

And the link to the report itself:
http://info.goldcore.com/what-savers-and-depositors-need-to-do-to-protect-their-savings-and-deposits-from-bank-bail-ins