Here we go, folks – as predicted, right on the minute. Live Register is up again to new historic highs. Seasonally adjusted number of new unemployment claimants rose 3,300 in December, just as the country was ‘enjoying’ what the media and the politicians were heralding as a ‘buoyant’ Christmas sales season. Now, recall the ‘moderation’ and ‘improvements’ (per our Government claims) in the past, namely – October 2009, when the Live Register declined 3,000 for the first time since March 2007. December increase has more than offset that, and it comes on 900 new claimants added back in November.
New Live Register record is now at 426,700 – 1,200 above September 2009 previous record of 425,500. Unemployment is now at 12.5% (up from 12.4% a month ago), with lower participation rate and emigration – two factors driving people out of the labour force and thus out of unemployment count (as if those who have no jobs and are not looking for one are any better off than those who are officially unemployed) are the only thing that keeps the unemployment rate hitting 13% now. The estimated unemployment rate has thus risen from 8.5% a year ago to 12.5% today – a 4 percentage points rise in 12 months.
The trend suggests that we are likely to reach 13.3-13.7% unemployment this year, with the median probability forecast of 13.5%.
The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of an increase of 2,900 males and 500 females – suggesting that the latest jobs losses are not coming out of retail and services sectors. 800 additions came from under 25 year olds, suggesting once again that the core employment sectors and age categories are being hit this time around – just as in the latest QNHS results for Q3 2009 which showed that industrial / manufacturing jobs are now leading other sectors in terms of jobs losses. 2,700 seasonally adjusted jobs losses were in over 25-years of age categories.
One added point. We tend to look at the seasonally adjusted series, which tell us more about comparative dynamics of the time series. But in level terms, seasonally unadjusted Live Register now stands at 423,595, up a massive 10,090 in one month or 133,577 in 12 months since the end of December 2008 (+46.1%). This compares with an increase of 119,642 (+70.2%) in 2008. Of course, 46.1% sounds like a better deal than 70.2% - which in parlance of our stockbrokers, banks and Government analysts usually means a ‘moderation in the rate of increase’ or ‘bottoming out’ of the trend. Alas, the numbers are much more grave than the percentage change terms imply. In absolute terms, measured in average weekly increases recorded in the month, December was the seventh worst month in 2009 (+2,523 average weekly increase).
Finally, the CSO release also provides an insight as to just how tricky computations of unemployment are. CSO highlights two programmes whereby taxpayers pay unemployed individuals to either continue their work or to engage in other activities. These individuals, still in receipt of state aid are then removed from the unemployment roster. The two programmes that yield this type of treatment are Short-Term Enterprise Allowance scheme (since May 2009 paying workers out of the JB system to engage in self-employment) and work Placement Programme (since August 2009 engaging workers in 6-months long from the social welfare rosters to undertake unspecified ‘employment’). CSO states the numbers of such ‘employed’ individuals who are not otherwise accounted for on the Live Register to be at 3,785 at the end of September 2009, the latest date for which the figures are available. Given that this number increased by roughly 2,500 since October 2008, it is safe to assume that average monthly additions to the programmes stand at around 200. This, in turn implies that some 4,600 people are currently ‘employed’ with the use of these state funds that are not included in the Live Register, bringing the real number of claimants in Ireland to over 430,000 in seasonally adjusted terms.
Showing posts with label Unemployment in Ireland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment in Ireland. Show all posts
Friday, January 8, 2010
Monday, January 4, 2010
Economics 04/01/2010: Daily points
Minister Brian Lenihan's statement today - available here - deserves reading. Irrespective of one's disagreements with his policies, Brian Lenihan deserves our best wishes for speediest and fullest recovery and his family deserve our praise for the way they handled the public aspects of such a very private matter. Minister's statement today only re-enforces the sense of dignity and respect which he has projected to the entire nation at this time of a serious threat to his health. Let us hope that his treatment, that begins this week, will be swift and fully effective and that he will be as comfortable in the process of treatment as possible.
Now, onto few interesting issues I cam across in today's press:
A rather humorous mention of Ireland in a Kenyan newspaper (here).
A quote from the Economist reproduced in the paper:
"If we are to generate the sort of sustained and genuine boom that will deliver Vision 2030, we must move away from outdated practices. We must imagine success beyond beacons and title deeds. We must understand that we live in a world where success now comes from the contents of your head, not the soil on which you stand. We must make banks and financial institutions the handmaidens of development, not the brides. We must invest in knowledge, innovation and science. ...Our future lies in making and doing things better than others, not in building a cheap-credit economy in which property is the key asset. Let us learn that lesson before we find ourselves sharing a bad Irish joke."
Here is an interesting observation: over the weekend, Mr Cowen stated that the Government has no intention to help resolve the problem of negative equity. This is exactly the 'bad Irish joke' that the Business Daily Africa is talking about. Negative equity undermines returns to human capital by locking people in specific locations regardless of whether they can obtain a job suited to their qualifications or not. Thus, negative equity acts to undermine:
But one cannot reverse long term structural unemployment that will be the outcome of the negative equity - often, even after generations pass.
There is an interesting essay on Seeking Alpha (here) discussing some evidence that the 2000s was a lost decade in the US and that this trend is going to continue into the new decade. The second chart, plotting real S&P500 against payroll population ratio to total population is a telling one.
The EU Observer (here) has a story on the French courts striking down the new Carbon Tax as imposing an arbitrarily unfair burden on consumers, while letting industry off the hook. Is there a case for Ireland's courts to protect consumers? Tall order. In the case of the Irish CO2 tax, we, consumers, will pay the full load through:
It wouldn't be the job of the Irish Green Party to make sure that our own carbon tax is effective, egalitarian and socially just. But what about the economic logic? Ireland spent 2009 solidly in pursuit of improved cost competitiveness as businesses and the Government cut employment costs. Now, we just managed to hike up the cost of doing business in this country and reduce our ability to accept lower wages by raising a new tax. Anyone to notice a grand contradiction?
Now, onto few interesting issues I cam across in today's press:
A rather humorous mention of Ireland in a Kenyan newspaper (here).
A quote from the Economist reproduced in the paper:
"If we are to generate the sort of sustained and genuine boom that will deliver Vision 2030, we must move away from outdated practices. We must imagine success beyond beacons and title deeds. We must understand that we live in a world where success now comes from the contents of your head, not the soil on which you stand. We must make banks and financial institutions the handmaidens of development, not the brides. We must invest in knowledge, innovation and science. ...Our future lies in making and doing things better than others, not in building a cheap-credit economy in which property is the key asset. Let us learn that lesson before we find ourselves sharing a bad Irish joke."
Here is an interesting observation: over the weekend, Mr Cowen stated that the Government has no intention to help resolve the problem of negative equity. This is exactly the 'bad Irish joke' that the Business Daily Africa is talking about. Negative equity undermines returns to human capital by locking people in specific locations regardless of whether they can obtain a job suited to their qualifications or not. Thus, negative equity acts to undermine:
- incentives for skills acquisition, upskilling and mobility;
- returns to human capital investments to individuals and the economy at large; and
- the potential rate of growth for our economy.
But one cannot reverse long term structural unemployment that will be the outcome of the negative equity - often, even after generations pass.
There is an interesting essay on Seeking Alpha (here) discussing some evidence that the 2000s was a lost decade in the US and that this trend is going to continue into the new decade. The second chart, plotting real S&P500 against payroll population ratio to total population is a telling one.
The EU Observer (here) has a story on the French courts striking down the new Carbon Tax as imposing an arbitrarily unfair burden on consumers, while letting industry off the hook. Is there a case for Ireland's courts to protect consumers? Tall order. In the case of the Irish CO2 tax, we, consumers, will pay the full load through:
- paying directly at the pump and through VRT, and
- paying indirectly through energy charges set by regulators for semi-state monopolies running our energy sector,
- through higher charges at the airports and on public transport, also set by unaccountable regulators, and
- at a later date - through incineration surcharges that will be inevitable given the conditions of the contract between the Poolbeg operators and Dublin City.
It wouldn't be the job of the Irish Green Party to make sure that our own carbon tax is effective, egalitarian and socially just. But what about the economic logic? Ireland spent 2009 solidly in pursuit of improved cost competitiveness as businesses and the Government cut employment costs. Now, we just managed to hike up the cost of doing business in this country and reduce our ability to accept lower wages by raising a new tax. Anyone to notice a grand contradiction?
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Economics: 24/06/2009: OECD Unemployment stats
OECD's latest unemployment forecast is out for the Euroarea. Two things worth noting:
First, the OECD has gotten Irish unemployment spectacularly wrong (they used QNHS official data that is lagging). Correcting for this, chart below shows the discrepancy delivering up to date numbers. Scary.
Second, even the original chart numbers show Ireland as having the most extreme rise in the Euro area in unemployment. In sheer numbers, Australia, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Sweden all had smaller increases in unemployment than Ireland. Taking into account Live Reg latest numbers, Ireland's 230,000 newly-added unemployed (since December 2007) mean that our unemployment increase was greater than that for Australia and Denmark combined, or Denmark and Italy combined, or Denmark and Sweden combined...
Globally: unemployment in OECD countries is now expected to continue to rise well into 2010, per yesterday’s data from the OECD. The average unemployment rate will be approaching 10%, up from 7.8% in April, according to new projections.
“More than 57 million people will be unemployed in OECD countries by the end of 2010, according to OECD estimates, up from 37.2 million at the end of 2008, when the average unemployment rate was 6.8%. The expected increase will bring OECD-wide unemployment to 9.9% at the end of 2010, its highest level since the 1970s, with an average for the year of 9.8%. Unemployment touched a recent low point of 5.5% in the last quarter of 2007, standing at 31.6 million at the end of that year,” says OECD.
Previous downturns show that the jobs recovery will lag a long way behind the pickup in economic growth.
First, the OECD has gotten Irish unemployment spectacularly wrong (they used QNHS official data that is lagging). Correcting for this, chart below shows the discrepancy delivering up to date numbers. Scary.
Second, even the original chart numbers show Ireland as having the most extreme rise in the Euro area in unemployment. In sheer numbers, Australia, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Sweden all had smaller increases in unemployment than Ireland. Taking into account Live Reg latest numbers, Ireland's 230,000 newly-added unemployed (since December 2007) mean that our unemployment increase was greater than that for Australia and Denmark combined, or Denmark and Italy combined, or Denmark and Sweden combined...Globally: unemployment in OECD countries is now expected to continue to rise well into 2010, per yesterday’s data from the OECD. The average unemployment rate will be approaching 10%, up from 7.8% in April, according to new projections.
“More than 57 million people will be unemployed in OECD countries by the end of 2010, according to OECD estimates, up from 37.2 million at the end of 2008, when the average unemployment rate was 6.8%. The expected increase will bring OECD-wide unemployment to 9.9% at the end of 2010, its highest level since the 1970s, with an average for the year of 9.8%. Unemployment touched a recent low point of 5.5% in the last quarter of 2007, standing at 31.6 million at the end of that year,” says OECD.
Previous downturns show that the jobs recovery will lag a long way behind the pickup in economic growth.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Live Register Details: March 2009
Per my earlier post today, here are some charts and trends for the Non-Irish contingent of the Live Register.
In terms of numbers on Live Register numbers, Accession States (EU27 less EU15) are by far predominant of all Non-Nationals. Some reasons why, apart from the obvious one that there is simply more of them than of other Non-Nationals, are:
(1) These are workers with less tenure (many came after 2004) and thus are cheaper to lay off. They might not be the least productive, but given our daft labour laws according protection by tenure, not merit, they are the first ones to go.
(2) Many of these workers are employed as quasi-skilled - they are still in on--the-job training and/or still developing their language skills.
(3) Obviously, majority were employed in Construction, Hotels and Hospitality, Retail Services - all sectors that experienced the heaviest fall off in employment.
Chart above shows totals of all Non-Irish Nationals against the Irish Nationals. Not much to comment here, except that I would suspect that tenure-adjusted, unemployment rates amongst non-Irish nationals are much closer to the Irish nationals than these numbers suggest.
Finally, the last chart shows monthly rates of growth in Live Register signees. Again, all Accession States (EU27 less EU15) lead in rates of growth and in some cases - Q1 2008 being one example - with massive spikes. These are the signs of who is being let go first in this economy. Notice convergence of all categories to trend in March 2009. This is cyclical - following massive layoffs of January-February 2009 and will not hold in months to come as the next wave of layoffs is already ongoing. The next, most troublesome sub-category is EU15 (ex Irish and UK nationals) - the French, Germans, Italians, Spaniards and so on. These groups were not known to be occupied with 'dirty' work, preferring instead cushy jobs in professions, even public sector, and of course that welfare-heaven - EU jobs. They are being laid-off ahead of 'Others' (which includes Americans, Russians, Ukrainians, Chinese - all the 'rif-ruf' according to our immigration laws). Now, the 'Others' category does not cover students here, who are doing their post-graduate degrees and working part time, but do not qualify for unemployment assistance. Others, as well as the UK nationals are actually holding to their jobs pretty much as well as Irish nationals.
So, see, not all Non-Nationals are identical... an obvious conclusion.
In terms of numbers on Live Register numbers, Accession States (EU27 less EU15) are by far predominant of all Non-Nationals. Some reasons why, apart from the obvious one that there is simply more of them than of other Non-Nationals, are:(1) These are workers with less tenure (many came after 2004) and thus are cheaper to lay off. They might not be the least productive, but given our daft labour laws according protection by tenure, not merit, they are the first ones to go.
(2) Many of these workers are employed as quasi-skilled - they are still in on--the-job training and/or still developing their language skills.
(3) Obviously, majority were employed in Construction, Hotels and Hospitality, Retail Services - all sectors that experienced the heaviest fall off in employment.
Chart above shows totals of all Non-Irish Nationals against the Irish Nationals. Not much to comment here, except that I would suspect that tenure-adjusted, unemployment rates amongst non-Irish nationals are much closer to the Irish nationals than these numbers suggest.
Finally, the last chart shows monthly rates of growth in Live Register signees. Again, all Accession States (EU27 less EU15) lead in rates of growth and in some cases - Q1 2008 being one example - with massive spikes. These are the signs of who is being let go first in this economy. Notice convergence of all categories to trend in March 2009. This is cyclical - following massive layoffs of January-February 2009 and will not hold in months to come as the next wave of layoffs is already ongoing. The next, most troublesome sub-category is EU15 (ex Irish and UK nationals) - the French, Germans, Italians, Spaniards and so on. These groups were not known to be occupied with 'dirty' work, preferring instead cushy jobs in professions, even public sector, and of course that welfare-heaven - EU jobs. They are being laid-off ahead of 'Others' (which includes Americans, Russians, Ukrainians, Chinese - all the 'rif-ruf' according to our immigration laws). Now, the 'Others' category does not cover students here, who are doing their post-graduate degrees and working part time, but do not qualify for unemployment assistance. Others, as well as the UK nationals are actually holding to their jobs pretty much as well as Irish nationals.So, see, not all Non-Nationals are identical... an obvious conclusion.
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