Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Economics: 24/06/2009: OECD Unemployment stats
First, the OECD has gotten Irish unemployment spectacularly wrong (they used QNHS official data that is lagging). Correcting for this, chart below shows the discrepancy delivering up to date numbers. Scary.
Second, even the original chart numbers show Ireland as having the most extreme rise in the Euro area in unemployment. In sheer numbers, Australia, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Sweden all had smaller increases in unemployment than Ireland. Taking into account Live Reg latest numbers, Ireland's 230,000 newly-added unemployed (since December 2007) mean that our unemployment increase was greater than that for Australia and Denmark combined, or Denmark and Italy combined, or Denmark and Sweden combined...
Globally: unemployment in OECD countries is now expected to continue to rise well into 2010, per yesterday’s data from the OECD. The average unemployment rate will be approaching 10%, up from 7.8% in April, according to new projections.
“More than 57 million people will be unemployed in OECD countries by the end of 2010, according to OECD estimates, up from 37.2 million at the end of 2008, when the average unemployment rate was 6.8%. The expected increase will bring OECD-wide unemployment to 9.9% at the end of 2010, its highest level since the 1970s, with an average for the year of 9.8%. Unemployment touched a recent low point of 5.5% in the last quarter of 2007, standing at 31.6 million at the end of that year,” says OECD.
Previous downturns show that the jobs recovery will lag a long way behind the pickup in economic growth.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Adoption issue ...fizzles in gutless Seanad
Given that Seanad site provides collapsed entries for each statement on the issue and since the debate took place in the context of the debate on the order of business (so the adoption issue is mixed within other statements), here are the parts of the debate that relate to the topic. My quick analysis of what happened follows this copy of the Seanad record.
Emphasis is mine, throughout.
Senator John Hanafin: I raise the issue of adoptions from Russia and Vietnam. In particular, I am cognisant that the difficulty that has arisen could be ameliorated through serious bilateral negotiations, notwithstanding the fact that all organisations, including the Health Service Executive, have limitations. Whereas normal criteria are applied prior to adoption, I understand post-placement requests have become extremely vigorous. If a little understanding were shown, it could help the HSE and put the matter in context..
[Senator Hanafin subsequently votes against a proposal to bring in Minister Barry Andrews for questions on the issue that he so passionately supports in this statement]
Senator Ivana Bacik: It is important to debate the treatment of children today. It is extraordinary that this Government has time to legislate for an outdated and dangerous offence of blasphemous libel--- and yet no time, apparently, to ensure the impasse between the HSE and the Ombudsman for Children is resolved and ensure the bilateral agreements for adoptions in Vietnam and Russia are resolved.
Senator Mary M. White: Like my colleagues, I call on the Leader to invite the Minister for Health and Children, Deputy Mary Harney, to come in and explain the difficulties faced by the Ombudsman for Children, Ms Emily Logan, which led to her suspending her investigation into the HSE’s handling of the child protection audit of Catholic Church dioceses. The HSE should be absolutely transparent as a public body and should be forced to co-operate fully with the Ombudsman’s investigation...
When the Minister of State at the Department of Health and Children, Deputy Barry Andrews, was here to discuss the Adoption Bill he was exemplary in his understanding and comprehension of the legislation. I remember my colleagues on the other side of the House praised him for his dedication and understanding. It is critical we get to grips with the situation regarding adoptions in Russia and Vietnam. When I spoke on the Bill I said we must have compassion for the parents who are waiting to adopt children and for the children who are aching to be brought into a loving family...
[Senator White subsequently votes against a proposal to bring in Minister Barry Andrews for questions on the issue that she so passionately supports in her statement]
Senator Fidelma Healy Eames: I am pleased there is support on both sides of the House for an urgent clarification by the Minister of State with responsibility for children, Deputy Barry Andrews, on the adoption crisis currently being experienced by families in this State. As an adoptive parent, I know what it is like to go through the process of adopting a child. As we speak, the applications of 24 Irish couples are delayed in Hanoi because the Minister of State has dropped the ball.
In the first week of March, we debated the provisions of the Adoption Bill 2009 in this House. Senator Fitzgerald and I told the Minister of State it was critical that the bilateral agreement should be in place by 1 May. His failure to act is hurting families, including the 250 couples who are ready to submit their applications to the Vietnamese authorities. The Minister of State has also dropped the ball in regard to Russia. Irish couples successfully adopted 484 babies from Vietnam and Russia last year, accounting for 84% of inter-country adoptions. I implore Members on the other side of the House to come together us on this issue. I ask that the Minister of State, Deputy Barry Andrews, be invited to the Chamber this afternoon to update us on the situation. I cannot answer all the e-mails I am receiving from people asking questions about it.
[Senator Eames subsequently votes in favour of calling in Minister Barry Andrews for questions on the issue]
Senator Ciaran Cannon: I refer to the matter of adoption. I have much respect, as does Senator Norris, for the Minister of State at the Department of Health and Children, Deputy Barry Andrews. He has brought fresh thinking and enthusiasm to that Ministry. However, the energy and effort invested in the attempt to get the agreement with Vietnam re-established took place far too late. It began in earnest in March and the Minister of State should have made it a priority. He should have gone to Vietnam to establish what the issues were and how they could be resolved.
[Senator Cannon subsequently votes for a proposal to bring in Minister Barry Andrews for questions on the issue]
Senator Nicky McFadden: I also support Senator Fitzgerald’s comments on the bilateral agreement. I agree with Senator Norris about the Minister of State, Deputy Andrews. He is a good, caring Minister of State but why in God’s name did he only start negotiations in earnest on 25 March? Why did he not go to Vietnam, as Senator Cannon said? We need to put ourselves in the position of the families who, after five years of negotiation, are going to get their packs, information and deposits back from Vietnam and such places. That will be heartbreaking and soul destroying for people, not to mention the effect it will have on the extended families. Given that 1,000 families are waiting in this situation, it is incumbent on us to sort it out as soon as possible.
[Senator McFadden subsequently votes for a proposal to bring in Minister Barry Andrews for questions on the issue]
An Cathaoirleach: Senator Fitzgerald has proposed an amendment to the Order of Business, “That a debate with the Minister for Health and Children on international adoptions, the suspension of the inquiry by the Ombudsman for Children and plans for child care places be taken today”. Is the amendment being pressed?
Tá: Bacik, Ivana. Bradford, Paul.Burke, Paddy.Buttimer, Jerry.Cannon, Ciaran.Coffey, Paudie. Coghlan, Paul. Cummins, Maurice. Fitzgerald, Frances. Hannigan, Dominic. Healy Eames, Fidelma. McFadden, Nicky. Mullen, Rónán. Norris, David. O’Toole, Joe. Prendergast, Phil. Quinn, Feargal. Regan, Eugene. Ross, Shane. Ryan, Brendan. Twomey, Liam.
Níl: Boyle, Dan. Brady, Martin. Butler, Larry. Callely, Ivor. Carty, John. Cassidy, Donie. Corrigan, Maria. Daly, Mark. Feeney, Geraldine. Glynn, Camillus. Hanafin, John. Keaveney, Cecilia. Leyden, Terry. MacSharry, Marc. McDonald, Lisa. Ó Domhnaill, Brian. Ó Murchú, Labhrás. O’Brien, Francis. O’Donovan, Denis. O’Malley, Fiona. O’Sullivan, Ned. Ormonde, Ann. Phelan, Kieran. Walsh, Jim. White, Mary M. Wilson, Diarmuid.
So motion was defeated... Why? Anyone?I have no idea and I cannot define a single reason as to why would anyone oppose this, but what is clear to me is that there is some sort of a party-line closing of the ranks on the No side. Gutless and crass! And espacially so for those who spoke of their concern for children and adopting parents and then turned their backs on them in the vote!
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Children and Parents Caught in HSE-created nightmare
This post is not about economics, though my old prof Gary Becker might disagree... It is about a monumental screw up that is our system of family support and the horror of the HSE monopoly in adoption process administration. And it makes me absolutely sick to think that there are thousands of couples in this country - either in the process of adoption or thinking about starting on that long road - who are being failed by the HSE, the Irish state and our politicians.
Here is the story.
Over the last 5 years almost 75% of all inter-country adoptions into Ireland came from three countries: Russia, Vietnam and China. Several of my friends have happily adopted kids from all three of these countries, giving both the adoptive parents and the children a real future as families. At present some 1,000 Irish families are seeking to adopt from Russia and Vietnam.
By my personal experience of seeing homeless kids in Russia, I know that there are tens of thousands of small children without parents in Russia who are facing years of hardship and very few opportunities to have a successful, fulfilling life. They need love, they need a family, and they need a chance to have a future.
Thus, in harsh econospeak - there is supply and demand. In human terms, the future of kids and adoptive parents is at stake here. You can - and should - get the feel for the issue of human hurt and suffering this HSE-screw up is causing here.
The interim bilateral agreement between Ireland and Vietnam expired on May 1 this year - another present of this Government, on top of higher tax levies, stolen mortgage relief and extorted child benefits, that came our way that day. No new agreement has been signed or, as far as we know, even prepared. The Irish authorities, also to the best of our knowledge, are the sticking point here, despite the fact that they knew of the expiry date well in advance. Irish authorities have managed to send a lowly case worker to Vietnam to sort out the issue of a new agreement - a bizarre twist of protocol and managerial logic. Instead of a decision maker, we sent a clerk.
Now, Russia - as the adoption country - has been also shut down because HSE cannot be bothered to adhere to the legal conditions imposed by the Russian authorities on adopting countries. The procedure is a simple one and a logical one. As a part of the adoption process, Russians would like to know that the kids are doing well in their families and in the new country. Thus, the adopting country is required to submit updates on the kids conditions, health, etc. In the case of Ireland-Russia adoption process, this procedure has been in place for 4 years. However, this year, the HSE - the organization with a state-run monopoly power in the adoption process - simply failed to deliver such reports.
In my conversations with the office of Barry Andrews, Minister for Children, I was unable to obtain a clear (let alone convincing) explanation as to what exactly has happened, but to the best of my understanding, HSE simply failed to collect post-adoption reports and send them to Moscow. My conversation with a contact in HSE revealed that they simply "couldn't be arsed to follow up on the process". Just like that - 'we didn't feel like doing it'... And when I suggested to Barry Andrews' office that there should be someone responsible for the mess, the story got even more confusing. I was told that HSE is not even sure it can compel the parents (at the first mention) or its own social case workers (at the second mention) to collect such reports. Not even sure? Four years after the condition was imposed and after three years of complying with the condition?
Here is what we should know and yet we do not know (courtesy of the HSE, Dept of Health, Adoption Board and so on):
- We have no idea how many post-placement reports are outstanding in the case of Russia;
- We have no idea if HSE is even doing anything to rectify the situation (Russian authorities have told me - and I have no reason to question their sincerity - that Russia is ready to restore full adoption process with Ireland as soon as the post placement reports are delivered. HSE cannot tell me anything!);
- Is there an actual copy of a legal agreement with Russia in existence and if yes, why is it not posted on the HSE and Adoption Board websites? Why are the prospective and adoptive parents not given a copy of such an agreement as it stipulates their fundamental rights and duties?
- Is Ireland ever going to conclude bilateral agreement on adoption with Russia? Will Ireland be in a position to renew the expired bilateral agreement with Vietnam?
- Why there has been no high level delegation to Vietnam to renew the bilateral agreement?
- Why doesn't the Adoption Board extend the validity of adoption applications while this mess continues, so that prospective parents whose declarations expire during the time it takes HSE to get its head out of its posterior are not required to go through a renewal process again?
Clearly, there is an argument to be made here, that what Ireland needs is a well-regulated, competitive system for assessment and processing of adoption cases. In other countries, such a system exists. Hence, for example, the same Russian document that blacklists HSE also blacklists some privately run organizations operating the adoption system in the US. Of course, American adoptive parents have a choice to continue with the adoption process via another agency. Irish adoptive parents have only one choice of waiting for the demi-Gods of HSE to, as I put it earlier, pull their head out of their postrerior.
At the rollercoster site: here, you can find an open letter on the issue (search for the post by blmf ID:- 27687 Date:- 02/05/2009 15:14). I would suggest we all send a copy to that list of our TDs.