28/05/11: Retail sales for April 2011

As promised in the previous post, here's the analysis of retail sales for April 2011.

Headline figures:

• The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects - which in effect means excluding the revenue factor or margin factor for retail services providers) was down by 3.9% in April 2011 year on year (for the third month in a row).
  
• There was a monthly decrease of 0.8% for the first month after two consecutive months of increases (retail sales volume was up 3.1% in February and 0.8% in March with both increases attributed to the correction on big contractions in December 2010 (-1.5%) and January (-3.4%).
  
• Over the last 6 months, therefore, volume of retail sales was down cumulative 3.07%. since January 2008 the volume of retail sales has fallen total of 20.92%.
• The value of retail sales decreased by 3.5% in April 2011 year on year, marking a third consecutive month of annual decreases.
  
• There was a month-on-month decline of -0.7%. The wedge between value and volume decrease can be interpreted as being driven by inflation, suggesting modest inflation in retail sales sector. The monthly pattern of retail sales value is virtually identical to volume with April decrease coming after two months of moderate increases which compensated for the poor weather (and poor Christmas sales) in December-January.
• Over the last 6 months value of retail sales has declined by 2.56% held above the decline in volume index solely by rising prices. Since January 2008 Irish retail sector activity as measured by value of retail sales (turnover and margins being best reflected by this metric, rather than CSO-preferred volume index) has fallen by a cumulative of 26.1%.

Charts to illustrate:

• Excluding Motor Trades there was an annual decrease of 2.4% in the value of retail sales in April. This was the 34th consecutive month of annual decreases.
  
• Ex-Motors retail sales posted a monthly decrease of 0.3% in April, continuing up-down monthly cycle that started in August 2010.
• Over the last 6 months, value of ex-motor retail sales has increased by 0.1% and since January 2008 the value of core retail sales is down 18.3%.
  
• The data on value suggest that inflation is starting to pick up in core retail sales.
• Ex-Motors volume of retail sales fell a massive 5.0% yoy in April (again, supporting the assertion that the end of sales season saw price increases across core retail sales in 2011 relative to 2010, which means that with lower disposable incomes Irish consumers are now facing rising cost of living once again). This marked 12th consecutive month of volume decreases in annual terms.
  
• Month-on-month core retail sales were down 1.0% in April, after posting zero change in March and contracting 0.3% in February.
• Over the last six months, core retail sales volumes have declined by 2.16% and since January 2008 they are down 14.25%.
  

Charts to illustrate:
Sources of core declines were:

• In terms of volume: Fuel (-11.9), Pharmaceuticals Medical and Cosmetic Articles (-7.4%) and Furniture & Lighting (-16.2%) were among the ten categories that posted year-on-year decreases in the volume of sales in April. Books, newspapers & stationery fell 14.9%, Bars -6.0%, Food, beverages & tobacco were down 5.7%.
  
• In terms of value: largest annual declines were posted in Food, beverages & tobacco (-5.2%), Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles (-6.2%), Furniture and Lighting (-19%), Electrical Goods (-8.5%), Books, Newspapers and Stationery (-14.4%), and Bars (-4.7%).
• The list of heaviest-hit sub-categories of retail sales in annual terms suggests that these might signal renewed push for shopping in Northern Ireland. In particular, large ticket items and higher cost items might be now more efficiently purchased outside ROI given the strength of the Euro. Another possibility might be continued drive by consumers into on-line sales channels which come from outside Ireland.
  

Lastly, some anecdotal evidence - reports by retail shop owners I had communications with - suggest that May might be another bad month for the sector already virtually decimated by the crisis.

27/05/11: Retail sales and consumer confidence

Updated chart for retail sales (see analysis of today's release to follow) and consumer confidence:
ESRI's Consumer Confidence index for April was down from 59.5 in March to 57.9. This decline was not marginal, but it does come at the end of three months of increases, so can be seen as at least in part a technical correction. Three month moving average continued to increase simply due to the momentum - a point that was missed by those observers who made much of hay out of this increase.

Contrary to the Sentiment momentum, of course, the Retail Sales fell in April:

• the volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 3.9% in April 2011 when compared with April 2010 and there was a monthly decrease of 0.8%.
  
• ex-Motor Trades the volume of retail sales decreased by 5.0% in April 2011 yoy, while there was a monthly decrease of 1.0%.
• the value of retail sales fell 3.5% in April 2011 yoy and -0.7% mom.
  
• ex-Motor Trades annual series for value fell 2.4% and there was a monthly decrease of 0.3%.
  

Overall, it is believed that the 3mo MA is a better predictor of the general direction in the series. I am not so sure. Here's why. Both the contemporaneous (spot) indices and 3moMA are pretty much similar in tracking volume and value of retail sales. The charts below illustrate:
The 3moMA is somewhat better on both value and volume, but not by a massive margin.

Incidentally, the ESRI release on Consumer Sentiment index this month forgot (for some probably simple error reason) to update data tables from January 2011 through April 2011 (link here).

28/02/2011: Retail sales for January

Headline stuff: the volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) increased by 4.6% in January 2011 when compared with January 2010 and there was a monthly decrease of 3.8%. Now, wait, that sounds good?

Not really. Let’s take another shot at that statement: volume of retail sales was up 4.6% yoy in January 2011, but it was down 3.8% on December 2010. In fact, it was down for the third month running, having declined 0.6% in November, then 1.9% in December and now 3.8% in January. The rate of decline is accelerating so far. And at a massive speed: x3 times in November-December and at x2 times in December-January. (Mrs G is putting that bubbly back in the fridge right now).

But what about the value of sales? Remember – CSO likes volume indices cause they tell you how much physical stuff was shifted through the stores. But let’s not forget that retail sales jobs and businesses depend not on volume, but on value of stuff being sold. Exactly the same picture here as in the case of volume. Value of retail sales was up 4.0% on January 2010, but it was down for the third month running (-1.5%) in monthly terms.

Let me toss in another factoid here. December sales were extremely poor in 2010, but not so much in 2009. In fact, December 2010 value of sales was down 4.0% on December 2009. So the rush post-Christmas into sales was much shallower in 2010 than in 2011. Hence, the current ‘boom in retail sales’ announced today by CSO is nothing more than a compensatory run onto the post-Christmas sales racks. (Mrs G is now putting away the celebratory bottle of Sprite back into the fridge).

And one more point – the value of sales index has been artificially boosted by rampant price inflation in several categories of sales where prices are state-controlled or subject to commodities price inflation (see below).

Now to updated charts:
You can see what I meant by the spin above and below (notice the divergence of monthly and annual rates of change):
And just in case you want to see it: relative to peak retail sales are still declining
Faster rate of decline in the volume, of course, is due to rising prices (as mentioned above).

Now to ex-motors sales (or core sales):
Ok, now, if Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.2% in January 2011 when compared with January 2010, while there was a monthly increase of 2.7%. Value of sales rose mom 2.6% although year on year there was a decline of 1%. Both value and volume of core sales broke two months declines in November and December. And this is good news. Relative to peak, value of sales is now at 82.21% (up from 80.10% in December 2010) and volume of sales is at 86.5% (up from 84.19% in December 2010). Last time value of sales was at this level was in June 2010 and volume – in November.
And take a look at the detailed sub-categories of sales:

• Motor trades - -4.2% in value and -3.5% in volume, so either we are buying cheaper and cheaper cars (in fewer numbers) or prices are falling faster than sales;
• Department stores down 12% in volume (mom) and 12.3% in value - symmetric drop-off as sales prices continued through the month;
• Fuel - volume of sales is up 0.9% mom (down 1.4% yoy), but value of sales is up 2.8% mom and 10.4% yoy - as mentioned above - inflation, folks is biting;
• Non-food business excluding motors, fuel and bars - now, here's the real retail sector story: -0.6% mom and -4.0% yoy in value of sales, and -0.9% mom and -1.5% yoy in volume - deflation and shrinking sales means recession continues.
• Of course, our massive newsflow has boosted Books, Newspapers and Stationery category - +4.9% mom in January in value and +2.7% mom in volume;
• Lastly, in tune with the nation watching Vincent Brown and other current affairs programmes, we've invested heavily in furniture and lightning - up 9.5% mom in value and 9.3% in volume
  

27/01/2011: Retail sales for December 2010

Retail sales stats are in. Given the weather conditions in December, the Budget 2011 pillaging the pockets of consumers, remaining uncertainty in the economy, and tanking consumer confidence (see here) it was not surprising to see the end results for the sales in December 2010.

Per CSO: “The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 3.1% in December 2010 when compared with December 2009 and there was a monthly decrease of 1.1%.” Worse than that: ex-Motor Trades, the volume of retail sales fell by 3.6% yoy in December 2010, and 2.5%mom.

• Motor Trades (-8.0%)
• Fuel (-21.7%)
• Furniture and Lighting (-21.5)
• Bars (-9.9%)

were “amongst the ten categories that showed year-on-year decreases in the volume of retail of retail sales this month”.

The value of retail sales has suffered even more than the volumes (and remember – it’s the value, not the volume that supports jobs in the sector) contracting by 4.1% yoy in December 2010 and falling 0.9% mom. Ex-Motor Trades annual decrease was 3.3% in the value and a monthly decrease of 1.3%.

Further per CSO: "Provisional estimates are now available for the final quarter of 2010… the volume of retail sales decreased by 0.6% year on year in Q4, with the value decreasing by 2.1%. If Motor Trades are excluded the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.8% year on year in the final quarter of 2010 and the value of retail sales decreased by 2.4%."

Let’s add to that the following observation: since 2007 through the end of 2010 Irish retail sales fell 23.3% in value and 18.6% in volume.

Weather effects, that undoubtedly contributed to the declines in retail activity in December should not give us comfort going into 2011. The trends in both RSI and Consumer Confidence are less than encouraging. But one does need to take into perspective that, for example, a massive decline in fuel (due to transport disruptions during the snow periods) and declines in 'Other' categories - mobiles, toys, jewelery etc - and clothing, footware & textiles clearly inidcate the disruptive nature of December weather.

Economics 24/12/10: Retail Sales for November

Retail sales stats were out this week, prompting the usual 'upbeat' comments from the official analysts.

Here's an example from one bank analyst (emphasis is mine):

"November retail sales figures show a second consecutive monthly increase in sales volumes. The 0.2% rise last month followed a 0.3% monthly gain in October, representing the first back-to-back monthly increases since March/April. This leaves total sales in October/November running some 0.4% above the average level seen in the third quarter."

Oh, Mighty Aphrodite, folks. Time to pull the crackers out and funny hats? Alas, no. The quote above is so full of spin, you get dizzy after the first two sentences and by the end of the second paragraph all systems collapse is virtually inevitable. For reality is nowhere to be seen in the claims made above.

Take a look at the full seasonally adjusted figures for sales:

First, levels of sales - volume and value
Few things are worth noting:

• November shows that we - consumers in Ireland - are purchasing 23.89% less today than in February 2008 - the peak of our retail sales volumes
• Same figures show that we are buying 17.45% less value relative to October 2007 - the peak point in the value of sales index
• We are now consuming some 9.2% less in terms of volume and 4% less in terms of value than in 2005
• November 2010 index of 90.8 seasonally adjusted volume of sales is below that in November 2009 (91.8) and November 2008 (109.1)
• November 2010 index of 96 seasonally adjusted value of sales is above that in November 2009 (95.1) but below November 2008 (106.5)

Chart above shows changes in two series mom and yoy. Three things are worth noting there:

• Mom - both series are pointing down, with alue index going from +0.6% in October to -0.1% in November, while volume index from +0.3% to +0.2%
• Yoy - value index going from -0.3% in October to -1.1% in November, while volume index moved from +1.9% in October to +0.9% in November
• Yoy there has not been a positive growth month in terms of value of sales since April 2010

Our friendly economist quoted above went on in his/her note:
"As has been the case for much of the year, the overall picture is being flattered somewhat by rising levels of car sales. This was a pattern that was again evident last month, according to the CSO, as the motor trade category posted a 0.4% monthly rise in sales volumes. While modest by the standards of the stronger increases in car sales earlier in the year, this was still enough to pull total sales higher in November as core sales (which strips out the motor trade) fell by 0.2% on the month. This 0.2% fall in underlying sales followed a flat reading in October to leave core sales running about 0.5% lower than their average level in the September quarter."

Well, notice - there are no yoy references. Shall we take a look?
As above:

• Relative to the peak (February 2008) value of core retail sales today is down 19.09%
• Relative to the peak (October 2007) volume of core retail sales today is down 12.90%
• There are clearly two moments - around Q1-Q2 2010 when the volumes and values of retail sales ex-motors peaked locally - prompting the very same analysts to start trumpeting the recovery in retail sales, alas, all of these 'gains' were exhausted
• Ex-motor retail sales have reached another record lows in terms of both volume of sales and value in November 2010.
  

While the picture above confirms that there is little ground for optimistic reading of retail sales let's do justice to the quotes above:

• While celebrating the first consecutive two months rise in volume of retail sales since April,
• Keep in mind we also had (1) third consecutive month of declines in the value of core sales - the first time since December 2009, (2) 28th consecutive month of annual declines in the value of core sales, (3) 6th consecutive month of annual declines in the volume of core sales.

Looking at subcategories of sales, 7 out of 12 categories posted declines in volume mom and 8 out of 12 yoy. In value terms these figures were 7/12 and 9/12 respectively. In October 2010 we posted 9th worst performance in retail sales volumes in EU27 and 5th worst in Euro area 16.

Economics 29/10/10: Retail sales

After two weeks of absolutely excessive work loads, including a week of marathon teaching (gotta love that feeling of total exhaustion after 5 days worth of 6 hours straight lecturing on top of regular work), the blog is back.

The first order of the day - catching up with today's data. Retail sales... well, they are still tanking. Predictably, given weakening sterling (incentive to shop North), beginning of the festive season shopping (another incentive to head North for larger ticket items savings) and continued decline of overall economy.

Per CSO today, let's deal with the volumes and values of total sales first

• Retail Sales volume decrease by 0.3% in September 2010 compared with September 2009
• The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 0.3% yoy and declined 0.9% mom.
• The value of retail sales decreased by 2.6% yoy and there was a mom change of -1.2%.

Few charts now:
Looks like bottom fishing just got slightly more fun on both value and volume. And it's too bad you can't short retail sales:
Relative to peak, total sales are......errr... sickening?

As I highlighted on many occasions before, our Government's desire to subsidize Japanese, Korean, French, German etc manufacturers of motor vehicles, coupled with the vanity plates year have meant that our total retails sales are rather overly optimistic when it comes to determining the real retail environment out there. So let's drop Motor Trades out of the data:

If Motor Trades are excluded, there was

• an annual decrease of 4.1% in the value of retail sales and a monthly decrease of 0.9%
• volume of retail sales decreased by 2.5% in September 2010 yoy and fell 0.8% mom.
• thus, increases yoy in volumes were posted in: Motors (+13.2%), Non-Specialised Stores (+0.8%)
• of course, decreases were led by Other Retail (-12.4%) and Bars (-11.6%).
• mom declines in the volume "were evident in ten of the categories while only three categories showed monthly increases in September 2010". So broadly, monthly adjusted series were heading down.

Charts:
Yeah, that does look like an AIB share price chart... and then the rates of change:
Painful? Yes. Brian & Brian will not be happy campers - VAT receipts must be depressed. Jobs are also clearly going to be under pressure as we exit festive season, implying that absent a dramatic reversal of the recent trends, retail sector will be in severe pain comes January.

Not that it was avoiding that pain in recent past:

We now have provisional estimates for Q3 2010, so let's update quarterly graphs - which confirm broadly the weakening trend:

• volume of retail sales increased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2010 compared with the same quarter in 2009, and
• there was no change in the volume of retail sales when comparing the third quarter of 2010 with the second quarter.
  
• If Motor Trades are excluded the volume of retail sales decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, while the quarterly decrease was -2.0%.
  

Economics 1/10/10: Retail sales data

Oh, let's cut the bull, folks. The retail sales data is making rounds the banks 'economists' notes with all the hoopla of the 'positive news' arguments. So things are turning corners?.. Actually, not really.

With motors:

• Value of sales rose 1.3% mom in August and a re down 1.7% yoy;
• Volume of sales was up 1.1% mom and 1.3% yoy

Conclusion, with motors included, we are still selling more stuff at ever-lower prices, though this time around declines in prices did not outpace increases in volume. Which means that no jobs are being created. If we take on board the fact that Euro remains relatively weak compared to last year vis-a-vis our main trading partners outside the Euro zone, implying we are buying imports at a higher price, the margins in retail sector gotta be shrinking even more than the volume/value gap above suggests. Which, in turn, implies that there aren't any new jobs being created in the retail sector on the back of the latest 'turnaround'. The whole thing about 'great news on retail sales front' is a damp squib.


And if you want to see even deeper into the official spin, take a look at ex-motors retailing:

• Value of core sales was flat mom in August and is down 3.6% yoy;
• Volume of core sales was up 0.2% mom and 1.4% yoy

So declines outpacing volume increases is clearly operative here.

Dig deeper and take a look at the breakdown of sales across main business lines.

• The largest increases in value took place in Books, Newspapers & Stationary (+4.7%). Given all the great news we've heard about Ireland in August, this is hardly surprising.
  
• Second largest value increase (ex-motors) mom took place in... errr... Fuel (+4.5%). That wouldn't be an indicator of our consumer confidence in the future, but the price increases in the sector where prices are controlled by the Government.
• Durables continued to tank: Electrical goods (-3.2% value and -2.5% volume mom), Furniture and Lighting (-1.% and -0.7% respectively) - again, not a great sign.

The worst part of this data is that it continues to show that there is no restart to household investment in sight. Before the households begin investing, they will usually start consuming more durable goods. This is clearly not happening.

Economics 1/9/10: Retail Sales

Today's retail sales figures continue to provide the backdrop to my previous analysis of the Irish economy as the one still facing strong headwinds and showing no real signs of a recovery. After months of 'turning the corner' statements (by now clearly deserving to be serialized in The Simpsons or perhaps in the Sponge Bob) and the drone of the ESRI data on 'consumer confidence' improvements, people still continue to vote by withdrawing their spending.

Here are the charts and the results.

Overall volume of retail sales (i.e. ex-price effects or ex-deflation that is ruining retail sector jobs that is) contracted 0.1% yoy in July 2010. There was a monthly decrease of 0.2% - steeper than the annual decrease. We now have 3 months of continued declines.

Ex-Motor Trades the volume of retail sales shrunk by an impressive 2.5% in July 2010 yoy and -1.0% mom. Year-on-year and mom volumes rose in Motors, Fuel and Food, and decreases in everything else.

Stop for a second and think. Volume is just the bulk of stuff we buy. If the retail sector were to stop losing jobs and start growing again, increased volumes of sales (not that we have them anyhow, but give it a thought nonetheless) must be accompanied by non-falling value of sales.
Oops... the value of retail sales collapsed by 3.2% in July 2010 yoy and fell -0.6% mom. Ex-Motor Trades things were even worse: sales values fell 4.9% yoy and -0.6% mom. In fact, per CSo own admission: "only Motor Trades and Fuel showed year-on-year value increases in July 2010. All other sectors showed year-on-year declines in the value of retail sales" And boy these declines were rather large:

• Non Specialised Stores (-1.5%)
• Department Stores (-7.3%)
• Pharmaceutical Medical & Cosmetics (-10.6%)
• Clothing, Footwear and Textiles (-5.7%)
• Other Retail (-8.8%)
• Bars (-13.8%)
  

In mom terms, Motor Trades, Non-Specialised Stores and Electrical Goods showed increases in
the value of retail sales in July 2010. All other sectors showed mom value decreases in July 2010.

Now, these are not the results of 'improving consumer confidence' are they?

Overall, retails sales suggest that Q2 consumer spending will be a likely positive contributor for GDP growth, but Q3 will do the opposite. Of course, there is a catch here - the RSI data covers only sales of goods, but not of services, yet consumption expenditure on the latter accounts for 55% of the total consumption spending. Indications are - based on Live Register results showing contraction in services employment - services sales might be even weaker. Another sign of hidden weaknesses is in the ex-Motors sales. Ex-Motor volumes posted Q1 growth of 1.2%, followed by a preliminary estimate of 1.1% growth in Q2. The latter has been now revised down to a miserly 0.3% for Q2. Since then, ex-motor sales have been falling in both July and August.

Economics 1/8/10: Retail Sales data: to spin or not to spin?

The latest retail sales figures for Ireland highlight two interesting issues. One - deeply fundamental, another - deeply disturbing.

The first issue - the fundamental one - relates to the basic philosophy of 'reporting' the data. CSO's publication on RSI was headlined "Retail Sales volume index increases by 1.0%". The first paragraph of the 'analysis' reads (emphases are mine):

"The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) increased by 1.0% in June 2010 when compared with June 2009 and there was a monthly decrease of 0.2%. If Motor Trades are excluded the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.3% in June 2010 when compared with June 2009 and the monthly change was -0.5%."

This, to me, as an example of the poor application of economics to what is essentially a purely economic data series. And it is also an example of poor statistical analysis. Here is why:

1. The series reported are monthly and seasonally adjusted. This means these series are first and foremost about monthly, not annual deviations (annual comparisons can be made unadusted for seasonal / monthly variations). Why does the CSO then elects to report an annual deviation headline?
2. The volume series of retail sales are secondary in importance to the value series. What matters to gauging the overall demand in economy is not the physical quantity of stuff traded, but the value of the sales. Imagine a situation whereby an economy is plagued by a recession (like Ireland). Country largest retailer goes out of business and has a firesale of its stocks. Suppose it sells lock stock and barrel in one month, but at a price of zero euros per item, i.e. it gives stuff away for free. What happens? Volume of sales goes up dramatically. Value of sales goes down. CSO records an increase in volume and reports a headline that implies demand is up, sales are up. Yet, economic impact of this transaction is nill. If anything, it shows that economy has no real demand underlying it. Exchequer returns are nill. Value of stuff sold is nill. Value of transactions is nill. Patient is as dead as it can be!
3. Monthly, not annual series show shorter term dynamics. And it is the dynamics of sales, not their absolute levels or longer term changes that should frame short-term policies, that are suited for a recession.
   

Of course, you might object, saying - hey, you should have read the first paragraph, mate. Not just the headline. Alas, our politicos making bullish noises about turnarounds can't be relied upon to do this much. "It's the good news, folks! Retail sales are up year on year".

CSO has more disturbing analysis presented in the latest release. Paragraph two, in fact, is about as manipulative, as the preceding text:

"A number of sectors showed year on year increases in June 2010, with the most
significant being: Motor Trades up 13.9%, Non Specialised stores up 1.4%, Clothing, Footwear and Textiles up 2.6%".

Now, let's take a look at CSO own data to decipher the spin in the above statement:

• Motor Trades up 13.9% yoy in volume, and 1.4% mom - good news (driven, as I've said before by a tax off-set for new cars - aka the scrappage scheme, and to a larger extent - by the vanity plates for 2010), but Motor Trades are up less significant 9.2% yoy in value and 1.3% in mom terms. So one might ask the question then - why is value of overall Motor Trades lagging behind the volume of these. Is it due to (a) rebates by the Government (VRT offset?) or (b) competition in the Motor Trade sector or (c) because people are buying lower quality, cheaper priced cars? CSO doesn't even attempt to provide an answer. My earlier analysis (here and here) suggests that all three might be at play. If so, Motor Trades figures for the entire 2010 are not exactly a shining example of economic turnaround.
• Non Specialised stores volumes up 1.4% yoy, but down 0.9% in mom terms. Values of these sales are down 3.5% yoy and 1.3% mom. Discounts, discounts, discounts. Selling cheaper doesn't really generate more economic activity, though it does benefit consumers. And this 'cheaper selling' in turn drives up not new demand, but induces a movement right along the same, recessionary demand curve. But wait, seasonally adjusted monthly changes are negative in value, which means that deflation is still there and demand for quantity is not exactly booming.
• Clothing, Footwear and Textiles up 2.6% in yoy volume terms. Really? Well, mom the same series are down 4.1%. In terms of value of Clothing, Footwear and Textiles sold in Ireland in June: yoy sales collapsed 8.1% and mom change was 4.1%. In a normal economy that should start ringing the 'Recession Alert' bells. In Ireland, for CSO this is bunched together with the aforementioned 'good news'.

Here is another good look at the CSO own data, not brought up to anyone's attention by CSO:

• All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars: Value down -1.3% mom and -3.9% yoy, Volume down -1.1% mom and -0.2% yoy. Some turnaround!
• All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars: Value down -1.9% mom and -5.3% yoy, while Volume is down -1.1% mom and 0.3% yoy. No turnaround here either.
• Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars): Value off -1.2% mom and -7.1% yoy, while Volume is off -1.7% mom and -0.6% yoy.
• Household Equipment (white goods stuff) Value down -3.1% mom and -6.3% yoy, Volume off by -2.6% mom and -0.1% yoy. Now, this category is important as white goods are subject to demand due to depreciation and new demand. We've had at least 2 years of collapsing demand for these goods, implying that things are so bad, people are reluctant to replace depreciated washers, dryers, dishwashers, fridges etc. Forget buying new jeans and coats...

So to do what I usually do on this blog - here are updated charts plotting actual data (no spin):
If you look closely at the last three months in the series, you can see continued deterioration pressures in both. But to highlight this trend - check out the chart below:
Monthly changes are now in the negative territory, and a positive annual volume bounce of the first quarter 2010 is about to be exhausted.

Removing motor trade:

Why wouldn't CSO just report data, plus charts and leave 'commentary' to others? At least they would be purely objective reporters of data, instead of playing the amateurish 'Spin Economics' commentators?

Economics 13/04/2010: Retail sales

Retail sales are out today for February – some singing of good news hymns is being heard. And the headlines do appear to be touchy: “The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) increased by 3.0% in February 2010 compared to February 2009 and there was a monthly increase of 14.9%.” This was the first monthly increase in the volume in 25 months.

But, “the year on year increase is primarily explained by the 30.5% year on year growth recorded in Motor Trades in February 2010.” Tax breaks still work, folks, even in the economy mired in a recession. So much for all those Lefties who so ardently argued that taxes don’t change behavior. Apparently they do. Here is an interesting point - may be someone can document it later – a rebate of 1,500 on a tax bill is seemingly doing more to Motor trade than the steep price declines passed directly onto the purchase price itself. Why? Perhaps it is a behavioral issue.

The trouble is – motor purchases tend to be one-offs – we don’t exactly shop for a new car a month or a year after we purchased one. So motor trade pick up cannot be expected to continue into the second half of 2010. Once the Motor Trades are excluded “the volume of retail sales decreased by 3.1% in February 2010 compared to February 2009 and the monthly change was +1.2%.” Ok, still a monthly rise, but remember – 12 months to February 2010 things were bad.

And no they are actually even worse. The impact of the yearly drop – indiscernible directly in monthly figures is that:

• the volumes are down;
• the value of sales is down; and
• the retail price inflation is negative.

In other words, actual sales – as translated into revenue of retail sector businesses – are still going down.

There were, however some sectors with yoy volume increases:

• Department Stores up 10.9%
• Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles up 1.2%
• Clothing, Footwear & Textiles up 1.8%
• Electrical Goods up 3.5%
• Other Retail Sales up 2.8%

But the largest sector Non Specialised stores, inc. supermarkets, shows a year on year decrease of 1.7% and a month on month decline of 1.9%.

Much overlooked, the actual true indicator of health of the retail sector is the value of total sales achieved. In other words, we might book massive increases in the volume of sales, if we were to start giving stuff away for free. But that won’t restore any jobs lost in the sector. It is, really, the value of sales that we are after. And this has fallen (e-Motors) by 7.4% and the monthly change was only +0.1%.

With the exception of the Motors and Fuel sectors (where the Government collects lions share of the final price in taxes and charges) “most sectors continue to show year on year decreases in the value of retail sales however a number of sectors show monthly increases in the value of retail sales in comparison to January 2010.”

Not exactly a sign of a revival that we might be cheerful about.