13/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 6: Exports and MNCs

In the previous 6 posts, I covered:

1. Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results;
2. Irish year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP;
3. Quarterly growth rates in Irish GDP and GNP; 
4. Irish Domestic Demand (Household Consumption, Government Spending and Public and Private Investment)
5. Irish external trade; and
6. Evolution of per-capita metrics and the dynamics of the crisis.

So let’s get down to the last post on the matter of Irish National Accounts for 3Q 2015: the subject of Irish economy’s dependency on MNCs… err… exports that is.

Real Exports as a share of Irish real GDP stood at 120.1% in 3Q 2015, the second highest proportion on record, down from 123.0% in 2Q 2015 which was record-breaking level. Similarly, Nominal Exports as a share of nominal GDP fell from 127.2% in 2Q 2015 (highest on record) to 122.7% (second highest).

This is a remarkable set of numbers, driven predominantly by the activities of MNCs in Irish economy, and a number that is a signifier of all that is wrong with our National Accounts. Unlike countries that serve as a basis for production, Ireland serves as a basis for both some production of goods and services, but also as a platform for large scale tax optimisation. Vast majority of our exports are accounted for by MNCs trading from here, with large share of activity not taking place here, but being booked into Ireland from abroad. This distorts actual levels and value of production, but it also distorts the metrics of this economy’s openness to trade.

As the result on much of the MNCs activities, profits derived in Ireland by MNCs can go four ways:

1. They can be booked into tax havens (in which case they register as outflows from Ireland or Irish imports);
2. They can be booked in Ireland as profits and retained here (in which case they accrue to our National Accounts);
3. They can be registered here and then repatriated abroad (in which case they register as outflows of factor income); and
4. They can be booked into here and then expatriated, but remain on our books, as long as the MNCs is domiciled here (e.g. company created as an Irish entity via inversion).

We have zero ability to tell how much exactly do MNCs derive in profit from activities here and tax optimisation through here. But we do have a number that partially captures (3) above. This is provided by Net Factor Income Outflows to the Rest of the World and here is the chart showing how it evolved over time relative to Exports:

Do note that over 2011 - present period, average net outflow of factor payments abroad has fallen as a share of Exports from 17.5% in the period of 1Q 2002 - 4Q 2010 to 15.1%, the lowest period average on record. In other words, during the last 4 and 3/4 years MNCs operating from Ireland have been expatriating fewer profits abroad than in other periods in history. Question is: what happens to these retained profits over time? Obviously, these MNCs have absolutely no interest in re-investing these profits in Ireland (there is neither the scale for such reinvestment, nor the need). This suggests that either these profits are being parked until such a time as when they can be expatriated for the purpose of funding MNCs investments around the world, or the MNCs overall switched to declaring lower profits as a share of their exports.

Truth is - we do not know what is going on, though we do know that something is afoot.

Overall, however, Irish economic miracle’s dependence on MNCs-driven exports growth is growing, whilst transparency of MNCs operations here (at least as far as the National Accounts go) is declining. Happy FDI days are upon us… as long as the U.S., OECD, EU, and the rest of the host of states and organisations hell-bent on ending the free for all tax optimisation by corporates aren’t looking…

12/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 6: Measuring Recovery

In previous posts, I have covered:

1. Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results 
2. Year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP in 3Q 2015 
3. Quarterly growth rates in GDP and GNP 
4. Domestic Demand and
5. External trade side of the National Accounts 

Now, as usual, let’s take a look at the evolution of 3 per-capita metrics and trace out the dynamics of the crisis.

In 3Q 2015, Personal Expenditure per capita for the last four quarters totalled EUR 19,343, which represents an increase of 2.78% on four quarters total through 3Q 2014. Relative to peak 4 quarters total (attained in 4Q 2007), current levels of Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services on a per capita is 7.14% below the peak levels. In other words, 7 and 3/4 of the years down, Personal Expenditure on a per capita basis is yet to recover (in real terms) pre-crisis peak.

Per capita Final Domestic Demand (combining Personal Expenditure, Government Expenditure and Fixed Capital Formation) based on the total for four quarters through 3Q 2015 stood at EUR 34,616, which represents an increase of 7.75% y/y. This level of per capita Demand is 11.19% lower than pre-crisis peak attained in 4Q 2007. As with Personal Expenditure per capita, Final Demand per capita is yet to complete crisis period recovery, 7 and 3/4 of the years down.

On the other hand, GDP per capita stood at EUR 42,870 on a cumulative 4 quarters basis, which is 6.2% above the same period for 2014 and is 0.98% above the pre-crisis peak (4Q 2007). Hence, GDP per capita has now fully recovered from the pre-crisis peak and it ‘only’ took it 7.5 years to do so.

GNP per capita has recovered from the crisis back in 2Q 2015, so at of Q3 2015, 4-quarters aggregate GNP per capita stood at EUR 36,508 which is 5.85% ahead of the same period through Q3 2014 and is 2.39% above pre-crisis peak. In other words, it took 7 and 1/4 years for GNP per capita to regain its pre-crisis peak.

It is also worth looking at the potential levels of output per capita ex-crisis.

To do so, let’s take average growth rates for 4 quarters moving aggregate GDP. GNP and Domestic Demand, for the period 1Q 2002 through 4Q 2007. Note 1: this period represents slower rates of growth than years prior to 1Q 2002. Note 2: I further removed all growth rates observations within the period that were above 5 percentage points for GDP and GNP and above 4% for Final Demand, thus significantly reducing impact of a number of very high growth observations on resulting trend.

Here is the chart, also showing by how much (% terms) would GDP, GNP and Domestic Demand per capita have been were pre-crisis trends (moderated by my estimation) to persist from 4Q 2007:

I’ll let everyone draw their own conclusions as to the recovery attained.

11/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 4: Domestic Demand

In the previous posts of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results;  year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP; and quarterly growth rates in GDP and GNP.

Now, let’s look at the Domestic Demand.

Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services rose 3.63% y/y in 3Q 2015 in real terms, posting a stronger growth than in 2Q 2015 (+2.91%) and in 3Q 2014 (+1.11%). Over the last four consecutive quarters, growth in Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services averaged 3.36%. All of this is strong and encouraging, as Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services is one of the few figures still remaining in the National Accounts that are unpolluted by the MNCs activities and as such is a significant reflection of the strength of the real economy.

Despite the rise in 3Q 2015, current level of Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services remains 7.85% below pre-crisis peak levels.

Still, in 3Q 2015, Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services contributed EUR779 million to y/y growth in GDP and GNP, which is up on EUR616 million growth contribution in 2Q 2015 and on EUR236 million growth in 3Q 2014.

Expenditure by Government on Current Goods & Services fell in 3Q 2015 (down -1.38% y/y or -EUR94 million). This compares to growth of 1.82% y/y in 2Q 2015 and 3.23% growth in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters, Expenditure by Government on Current Goods & Services growth averaged strong 3.95% - faster than growth in Persona Consumption.

As with Personal Consumption, Government Expenditure is still down on pre-crisis peak levels, in fact, it is down more than Personal Consumption at -13.1%.

Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation continued to post literally unbelievable readings in 3Q 2015, rising 35.8% y/y, compared to 34.2% increase recorded in 2Q 2015 and to 10.1% rise in 3Q 2014. 3Q 2015 y/y growth figure was the highest on record and there is a clear pattern of dramatic increases over 4Q 2014, 2Q 2015 and 3Q 2015, with last four quarters average growth rate at 24.9% implying that Irish economy’s capital stock should be doubling in size every 3 years. This is plain bonkers and is a clear signifier of distortions induced into the Irish economy by the likes of Nama, vulture funds and MNCs.

Based on our official accounts, whilst building and construction (including civil engineering etc) added only EUR44 million to GDP in 3Q 2015, Fixed Capital Formation jumped by EUR3.1 billion over the same period of time.

Still, even with this patently questionable accounting, Irish Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation remains 11.8% below pre-crisis peak levels.

With all three components of Final Domestic Demand still under pre-crisis peak levels performance, Final Domestic Demand ended 3Q 2015 some 7.0% below pre-crisis peak. However, Final Domestic Demand did post strong growth, rising 10.2% in 3Q 2015 compared to 3Q 2014, with rate of growth in 3Q basically consistent with 10.1% expansion recorded in 2Q 2015, and up strongly on 3.1% y/y growth recorded in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters, Final Domestic Demand growth rate averaged 8.35%.

However, virtually all of growth in Final Domestic Demand was accounted for by Fixed Capital Formation - the only component of the Domestic Demand that is impacted by the MNCs. In 3Q 2015, growth in Final Domestic Demand stood at EUR3.782 billion, of which EUR3.098 billion came from Fixed Capital Formation side.

One additional point is worth making with respect to the expenditure side of Irish National Accounts in 3Q 2015. In last quarter, EUR497 million (or 37.6% of total GNP growth y/y) came from the expansion in the Value of Physical Changes in Stocks. This is not insignificant. In 3Q 2015, compared to 3Q 2014, Personal Expenditure in Ireland contributed EUR779 million, while Changes in the Value of Stocks contributed EUR497 million. Absent this level of growth in stocks, Irish GNP would have been up only 3.43% y/y instead of 5.5% and taking into the account last four quarters average changes in Stocks, the GNP would have been up just 2.8%. In other words, quite a bit of Irish GDP and GNP growth in 3Q 2015 was down to companies accumulating Physical Stocks of goods and services, sitting unsold.

A key observation, therefore, from the entire National Accounts series is that one cannot talk about Irish economy ‘overheating’ or ‘running at its potential output’ anymore: all three headline growth figures of GDP growth (+6.84% y/y in 3Q 2015), GNP growth (+5.50% y/y) and Domestic Demand growth (+10.23% y/y) are influenced significantly by MNCs and post-crisis financial and property markets re-pricing. In the surreal world of Irish economics, the thermometer that could have told us about economy’s health is simply badly broken.


Stay tuned for analysis of Irish External Trade figures next.

10/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 3: Quarterly GDP and GNP Growth

In the first post of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/101215-irish-national-accounts-3q-part.html).

The second post covered year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/101215-irish-national-accounts-3q-post.html)

Now, consider quarterly growth rates analysis.

While things were bustlingly rosy for GDP and GNP based on year-on-year growth figures, the picture is much more mixed when it comes to quarterly growth rates.

Firstly, GDP at constant factor costs rose 1.43% q/q in 3Q 2015, down from 2.4% growth recorded in 2Q 2015 and on 2.54% growth recorded in 3Q 2014. In so far as this reflects sectoral activity, this slower 3Q 2015 growth is hard to interpret.

Taxes at constant factor costs actually fell 1.49% q/q in 3Q 2015, having risen just 0.37% q/q in 2Q 2015. 2014 3Q contraction was much sharper at 6.65%.

GDP at constant market prices rose 1.37% q/q in 3Q 2015, once again posting slower rates of growth than in 2Q 2015 (+1.89%) and in 3Q 2014 (+2.06%). The current rate of q/q growth in GDP was the slowest in 3 quarters, but remains significant (above 1.33% average for the period of 1Q 2013 - 3Q 2015.

GNP surprised to a downside, falling 0.81% q/q in 3Q 2015, having previously posted growth of 1.35% in 2Q 2015 and having expanded 2.71% in 3Q 2014. In fact, 3Q 2015 is the worst quarter-on-quarter growth result for GNP since 4Q 2013 and the second quarter of negative growth over the last 4 quarters (previous one was in 1Q 2015 at -0.24%).

Over the first three quarters of 2015, GNP growth averaged 0.1%, which compares poorly to 1.97% average for the first three quarters of 2014 and 3.21% average growth posted for the first 3 quarters of 2013, and ditto for 2012.

The key takeaways here are:

1. Q/Q GDP growth remains robust, but is now the lowest in 3 consecutive quarters;
2. Q/Q GNP growth has turned negative once again in 3Q 2015, posting the worst reading for any quarter since 4Q 2013.
3. Meanwhile, net factor income outflows to the rest of the world are booming, hitting (on seasonally adjusted basis) the highest level since 4Q 2011 and the second highest level on record. 

In other words, MNCs extraction of profits from the economy is ramping out, which is helping the Exchequer and pushes up GDP, but also is leading to GNP growth lagging that of GDP.


Stay tuned for more analysis coming up.

10/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 2: Annual GDP and GNP Growth

In the first post of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/101215-irish-national-accounts-3q-part.html).

Now, consider data for GDP and GNP aggregates. Starting with seasonally unadjusted data (real variables) to allow for y/y comparatives.

Taxes at Constant Factor Costs:

• In 3Q 2015, Taxes at Constant Factor Costs rose at 6.95% y/y, having previously posted an increase of 6.04% in 2Q 2015 and a rise of 1.67% y/y in 3Q 2014. Taxes at Constant Factor Costs added EUR403 million to official GDP in 3Q 2015, a rise on the increase of EUR279 million in 2Q 2015 and a massive jump compared to the y/y uplift of EUR95 million in 3Q 2014. This clearly correlates with the data from the Exchequer and most likely is dominated by unexpected (and unexplained) growth in corporation tax receipts. 
• Over nine months through September 2015, Taxes at Constant Factor Costs rose EUR1.129 billion (+7.05%) compared to the same period of 2014. This rise now accounts for 16.9% of the increase in GNP over the same period. 

GDP at Constant Market Prices:

• GDP rose incredible 6.95% y/y in 3Q 2015, having previously posted growth of 6.84% y/y in 2Q 2015, both up on 3.75% growth in 3Q 2014. Year on year, 3Q 2015 rose EUR3.384 billion, which was up on 2Q 2015 growth of 3.234 billion, with both quarters posting massive uplift compared to 3Q 2014 growth of EUR1.757 billion.
• In 3 quarters of 2015, GDP rose by EUR9.943 billion which corresponds to annual growth of 7.04% and amounts to 148% uplift compared to the rise in GNP.

GNP at Constant Market Prices:

• -GNP rose 3.18% y/y in 3Q 2015, less than half the rate of increase in GDP. This comes on foot of the 5.5% y/y growth in 2Q 2015 and lower than 3Q 2014 growth of 3.68%. 
• Over the 9 months through September 2015, Irish GNP grew cumulative EUR6.694 billion (+5.58%) compared to the same period of 2014. This is appreciable growth, but it is far short of the GDP expansion over the same period. 

Per chart above, both GDP and GNP continue on the upward trend, albeit at different rates of growth. This divergence is now translating into widening (once again) GDP/GNP gap. In 2Q 2015, the GDP/GNP gap stood at 18.9%. In 3Q 2015 the gap widened to 21.65% - the largest since 1Q 2012 and well above the average of 17.8% for the period from 1Q 2013 through 3Q 2015. This gap used to reflect most of the over-statement of actual economic activity due to the MNCs trading in the Irish economy, but it no longer does, as new accounting standards now push up (superficially) or investment (via R&D reclassification in recent years, and through the upcoming ‘Knowledge Development Box’) and as MNCs continue to alter their pattern of profit flows through Ireland.

The latter aspect is reflected in rising volatility of Net Factor Income Flows which rose to 17.8% as a share of GDP in 3Q 2015, the highest level since 1Q 2012.

Incidentally, Net Factor Income for Rest of the World stood at a whooping EUR9.264 billion in 3Q 2015 - the highest level on record. Over nine months through September, MNCs-driven outflows of payments from Ireland exceeded inflows of payments into Ireland by a massive EUR24.67 billion which is 15.2 percent higher than for the same period of 2014.

Here is a comparative to ponder: in the first three quarters of 2015, GNP rose EUR6.69 billion on the same period of 2014, while net outflows of factor payments out of Ireland rose EUR3.25 billion, almost 1/3 of the increase in GDP and 1/5 of the increase in GNP.

Still, it is worth noting that for all of the above caveats, based on 4 quarters rolling cumulative measure, Irish GDP is now 6.97% above pre-crisis peak and is 6.78% ahead of where it was a year ago. For GNP, current 4 quarters cumulative reading is 8% ahead of pre-crisis peak and 6.45 above last year’s reading.


Stay tuned for quarterly growth rates analysis coming up next.

11/12/2014: QNA Q3 2014: Real GDP & GNP Growth Dynamics

Here is the second post on QNA detailed analysis, covering sectoral distribution of activity in Q3 2014.

• My post on the top level results for Q3 2014 is here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/12/11122014-q3-2014-irish-growth-broadly.html
• And the second post covering sectoral performance by broader sectors of economy is here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/12/11122014-qna-q3-2014-sectoral-activity.html

Now, onto a closer look at the GDP and GNP aggregates.

First, non-seasonally adjusted data, allowing for year-on-year comparatives.

• In Q3 2014, taxes net of subsidies amounted to EUR5.103 billion which is up 4.33% (+EUR212 million) on Q3 2013
• GDP in real terms reached EUR45.972 billion in Q3 2014, which is 3.54% higher than in Q3 2013. This is the slowest rate of GDP growth in y/y terms since Q4 2013 when GDP contracted 1.15%. Overall, GDP growth in Q3 2014 in y/y terms was less than half the rate of growth in Q2 2014.
• In Q3 2014, GNP stood at EUR38.52 billion which represents a growth of 2.49% y/y - the slowest rate of growth since Q2 2013.
• Excluding taxes and subsidies, private sectors GDP (GDP netting out taxes and subsidies) few strongly in Q3 2014 - which is the good news - rising 4.18% y/y. This is slower than Q2 2014 growth of 6.66%, but is better than Q1 growth of 3.55%.

GNP/GDP gap at the end of Q3 2014 stood at 16.21% which is the lowest in 3 quarters. Private sectors GNP/GDP gap also fell - reaching 18.23%, down from 19.18% in Q2.

Now, consider seasonally-adjusted data, allowing for quarter-on-quarter comparatives:

• In Q3 2014, seasonally-adjusted GDP grew at the rate of 0.0793% which marks the slowest rate of q/q growth since Q4 2013 when real GDP contracted q/q. The rate of growth in Q3 was 14 times lower than in Q2 and almost 36 times lower than in Q1 2014. In effect, the economy - measured by real GDP - stood still in Q3 2014.
• Meanwhile, in Q3 2014, real GNP expanded by 0.472% which marks weak, sub-period average growth and the second consecutive quarter of very poor GNP performance: in Q2 2014 GNP expanded by just 0.23% on q/q basis. 
• Last healthy growth in q/q terms for real GNP was back in Q1 2014 when it expanded by 1.86%.

Quarter-on-quarter growth terms signal official recessions (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Charts below map relative GDP and GNP performance in q/q terms by each quarter, identifying strong expansions, weak expansions and contractions. As charts clearly show, in GDP terms, we are currently in the first quarter of sub-average growth after Q1-Q2 above average growth periods. In GNP terms, we are into third consecutive quarter of sub-average growth.

Once again, broadly-speaking, we are witnessing a slowdown in growth momentum (bad news), but are still managing to stay in non-negative growth territory (good news).

Stay tuned for more Q3 QNA analysis later.

18/9/2014: Irish GDP & GNP Q2 2014: Headline Numbers

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/09/1892014-irish-gdp-q2-2014-sectoral.html) I covered sectoral decomposition of Irish GDP. Note, referenced activity in the above post and GDP are 'at factor cost', omitting taxes and subsidies.

Here, let's take a look at full valuations of real GDP and GNP, both seasonally-adjusted (allowing q/q comparatives) and seasonally un-adjusted (allowing y/y comparatives).

Starting with seasonally un-adjusted series.

Total real GDP (in constant prices) in Q2 2014 stood at EUR45.763 billion which is 7.72% above the levels recorded in Q2 2013 and marks second consecutive quarter of y/y growth (in Q1 2014 GDP expanded by 3.81%). Q2 2014 y/y growth rate in GDP is highest since Q1 2007 which is a huge print!

Profit taking by the MNCs accelerated to EUR8.016 billion in Q2 2014from EUR7.864 billion in Q2 2013 and GNP rose to EUR37.747 billion posting a y/y growth rate of 9.03% in Q2 2014, marking fourth consecutive quarter of GNP growth. The Q2 2014 y/y growth rate was the highest since Q2 2006. The level of GNP in Q2 2014 was the highest for any Q2 since Q2 2007. So we have another huge print here.

GNP/GDP gap at the end of Q2 2014 stood at 17.5%, which is worse than the gap of 16.9% in Q1 2014 but an improvement on 18.5% gap in Q2 2013. Excluding taxes and subsidies, private GNP/GDP gap reached 19.0% in Q2 2014 compared to 20.1% in Q2 2013. This means that while growth is improving domestic economic conditions, these improvements are not tracking in full overall economic activity.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, Irish economy's performance was more moderate, albeit still strong, than in y/y growth terms discussed above.

Q/Q, GDP grew by 1.54% in real terms in Q2 2014, marking a slowdown in growth from 2.79% q/q growth in Q1 2014. However, Q2 2014 marks second consecutive growth period and the first time we have posted a GDP outcome above EUR45 billion (EUR45.611 billion in fact) in any quarter since Q2 2008.

Q/Q GNP marked fourth quarter of expansion in a row with Q2 2014 uplift of 0.61% on Q1 2014, ahead of Q1 2014 growth of 0.38%. However, Q2 2014 growth was second slowest in last 4 quarters. In level terms, Q2 2014 seasonally-adjusted real GNP came in at EUR37.983 billion which is the best Q2 reading since Q2 2008. So despite growth moderation, levels performance is still relatively good.

Here are two charts plotting relative performance by quarter in terms of GDP and GNP compared to historical average growth rates for each decade.

More analysis to follow, so stay tuned.

4/7/2014: Q1 2014: GDP & GNP dynamics

In the previous posts I covered the revisions to our GDP and GNP introduced by the CSO and sectoral decomposition of GDP. The former sets out some caveats to reading into the new data and the latter shows that in Q1 2014, four out of five sectors of the economy posted increases in activity y/y. These are good numbers.

Now, let's consider GDP and GNP data at the aggregate levels.

First y/y comparatives based on Not Seasonally-Adjusted data:

• GDP in constant prices came in at EUR44.445 billion in Q1  2014, which marks an increase of 4.14% y/y and the reversal of Q4 2013 y/y decline of 1.15%. 6mo average rate of growth (y/y) in GDP is now at 1.49% and 12mo average is at 1.14%. Over the last 12 months through Q1 2014, GDP expanded by a cumulative 1.13% compared to 12 months through Q1 2013.
• Net Factor Income outflows from Ireland accelerated from EUR7.013 billion in Q1 2013 to EUR7.584 billion. Given the lack of global capes, this suggests that MNCs are booking more profit out of Ireland based on actual activity uplift here, rather than on transfers of previously booked profits. But that is a speculative conjecture. Still, rate of profits expatriation out of Ireland is lower in Q1 2014 than in Q1 2012, Q1 2011 and Q1 2010, which means that MNCs are still parking large amounts of retained profits here. When these are going to flow to overseas investment opportunities (e.g. if, say, Emerging Markets investment outlook improves in time, there will be bigger holes in irish national accounts).
• GNP in content prices stood at EUR36.861 billion in Q1 2014, up 3.35% y/y and broadly in line with the average growth rate over the last three quarters. This marks the third consecutive quarter of growth in GNP. Over the last 6 months, GNP expanded by 2.98% on average and cumulative growth over the last 12 months compared to same period a year before is 2.67%.

Two charts to illustrate:

The above clearly shows that the GDP has been trending flat between Q2-Q3 2008 and Q1 2014, while the uplift from the recession period trough in Q4 2009 has been much more anaemic than in any period between 1997 and 2007.

The good news is that in Q1 2014, rates of growth in both GDP and GNP were above their respective averages for post-Q3 2010 period. Bad news is that these are still below the Q1 2001-Q4 2007 averages.

GNP/GDP gap has worsened in Q1 2014 to 17.1% from 16.4% in Q1 2013. The same happened to the private sector GNP/GDP gap which increased from 18.3% in Q1 2013 to 19.1% in Q1 2014. This implies that official statistics, based on GDP figures more severely over-estimate actual economic activity in Ireland in Q1 this year, compared to Q1 last.

Chart to illustrate:

Switching to Seasonally-Adjusted data for q/q comparatives:

• GDP in constant prices terms grew by 2.67% q/q in Q1 2014, reversing a 0.08% decline in Q4 2013 and marking the first quarter of expansion. 6mo average growth rate q/q in GDP is now at 1.30% and 12mo at 1.26%. 
• GNP in constant prices terms grew by 0.48% q/q in Q1 2014, a major slowdown on 2.24% growth in Q4 2013. Q1 2014 marked the third quarter of expansion, albeit at vastly slower rate of growth compared to both Q3 2013 and Q4 2013. 6mo average growth rate q/q in GNP is now at 1.36% and 12mo at 1.34%. 

Chart to illustrate:

Finally, let's re-time recessions post-revisions.

Red bars mark cases of consecutive two (or more) quarters of negative q/q growth in GDP and GNP:

17/5/2013: Welcome to Surreal Irish National Accounts

A significant, but only because it is now 'official', confirmation that Ireland's GDP and GNP figures are vastly over-exaggerated by the distorting presence of some MNCs in Ireland has finally arrived to the pages of FT: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/eb114bda-be3f-11e2-9b27-00144feab7de.html#axzz2TYJudjwo

As one of those who said this time and again, starting with my work in the Open Republic Institute in 2001 and through today, I am grateful to Jamie Smyth for pointing this out.

The ESRI, which - being tasked directly with doing research on Irish economy and being paid for doing such research - has slept through the years of boom as the Government wasted resources in chasing imaginary investment/GDP and spending/GDP targets. After years of the Social partnership bulls**t, we only now, driven into desperation by necessity of the crisis, are beginning to face the reality that we are poorer than our GDP and GNP levels actually imply.

I take heart that all those who never once before voiced their concern about the distorting nature of our MNCs-dependent economic variables are now quoted in the FT voicing that concern. Since the beginning of the crisis I put forward consistently a three-points position countering Ireland's official sustainability analysis when it comes the economy being able to sustain current levels of Government debt:

1. Despite all the focus in Irish and international media and official circles, it is the total economic debt mountain (household, government and non-financial corporate debts) that matters in determining sustainability of our economic development;
2. Irish economy's capacity to carry the above debt burden is determined not by GDP, but by something closer to an average of GNP and Total Domestic Demand which, in 2012, stood at 81.54 and 75.21% of our official GDP.
3. Irish exports growth is now becoming decoupled from the real economy as it is primarily driven by services exports which are dominated by a handful of tax arbitrage plays with little real connection to value added generated in this country.

The ESRI note cited in FT - detailed and well-research as it is - only scratches the surface of tax arbitrage effects on our official statistics. 

The note is available here: http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/RN20130102.pdf