6/1/2015: BRIC PMIs: Weaker Outrun in December

Markit released PMIs for all BRIC countries for both Services and Manufacturing covering December 2014. Here are the main results.

Starting with manufacturing:

• Brazil Manufacturing PMI posted its first 50+ reading after 3 months of consecutive sub-50 readings. December PMI came in at 50.2, which is basically signalling no statistically significant growth. On a quarterly basis, Q4 2014 average came in at 49.3 - a contraction, against 49.3 (yep, same) for Q3 2014 and 50.1 (almost no growth) in Q4 2013.
• Russian Manufacturing PMI for December came at disappointing 48.9, marking the first month of sub-50 readings since June 2014. Q4 2014 average is at 50.3 (basically near-zero growth) against Q3 2014 reading of 50.4 (very weak growth) and Q4 2013 reading of 50.0 (stagnation).
• China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6, the first monthly contraction that follows six consecutive months of at or above 50 readings. Q4 2014 average was 50.0 - meaning Chinese manufacturing posted flat growth across the quarter. Q3 2014 average was 50.7, same as Q4 2013. Overall, there are some very serious weaknesses in Chinese manufacturing sectors.
•  India Manufacturing PMI jumped from 53.3 in November to 54.5 in December, signalling acceleration in activity in the sector. Q4 2014 average is at 53.1 - up on 52.0 average for Q3 2014 and on 50.5 average for Q4 2013.

Now, Services:

• Brazil's Services PMI was even worse, set at 49.1 in December (a shallow contraction), continuing with sub-50 readings for the third month in a row. Q4 2014 average is at 48.6 (outright contraction), against Q3 2014 average of 50.5 (weak expansion) and 52.1 (stronger expansion) in Q4 2013.
• Russian Services PMI stood at 45.8 - sharp contraction - in December 2014, marking third consecutive month of sub-50 readings. The index averaged less than impressive 45.9 in Q4 2014, showing severe strains from collapse in domestic services, such as financial services. The index averaged 50.1 in Q3 2014 and 53.0 in Q4 2013.
• China Services PMI surprised to the upside, posting 53.4 reading in December, up on 53.0 in November. Q4 2014 average is at 53.1 - faster growth signal compared to Q3 2014 reading of 52.7 and Q4 2013 reading of 52.0.
• India Services PMI, lastly, posted a slight de-acceleration in growth, slipping from 52.6 in November to 51.1 in December. Q4 2014 reading is now at 51.2, which marks a slowdown in growth from 52.2 index reading in Q3 2014 and47.0 reading in Q4 2013.

And a table and a chart summarising changes in both sets of PMIs

Note the increase in weaker growth signals in December data compared to previous month, driven by poorer PMIs in Manufacturing and by unchanged performance outlook in Services. Also note, per chart above, Russia not only acts as a main downward driver for the BRIC overall PMI-related performance, but it shows strong decoupling in the direction of trend from January-March 2014 on, with the divergence now accelerating over the last three months.

1/9/2014: BRIC Manufacturing PMIs: August 2014

With Brazil PMIs for Manufacturing sector finally in, time to update chart for BRIC Manufacturing PMI (data by Markit):

The above shows several interesting things:

1. Overall BRICs performance (Manufacturing data so far) is a mixed bag: Brazil and China barely above 50.0, signalling very slow growth (if any, as these readings are not statistically distinguishable from 50.0). Meanwhile, Russia showing relatively weak, but growth, while India showing rather modest growth.
2. Brazil posted its first above 50.0 reading after four consecutive months of below 50 readings. But the 'recovery' rate is very weak. Brazil's 3mo average through August is 49.3, which is lower than 3mo average through May 2014 (49.8) and basically unchanged on 3mo average through August 2013 (49.4). All suggests that things are still 'recessionary' in the manufacturing sector in the country.
3. Russia, despite sanctions already in place, posted second fastest growth amongst the BRIC countries in August and third fastest in July. Current 3mo average is 50.4, which better than 3mo average through May 2014 (48.6) and slightly better than 3mo average through August 2013 (50.1). Last two months saw readings above 50.0, breaking the cycle of 8 months of consecutive readings below 50.0. If anything, manufacturing data suggests stronger performance in the wake of sanctions than prior to them. The rot in the sector set on in the case of Russia back in July 2013, well before any troubles in Ukraine started. First round of sanctions saw PMIs falling from 48.5 to 48.3 - minor impact. Second round of sanctions saw PMIs rise from 48.5 to 48.9, while third round of sanctions saw PMIs staying flat at 51.0. 
4. India continued the trend of growing PMIs in August, with 3mo average now at 52.3, up on 3mo average through May (51.6) and up on recessionary 3mo average of 49.6 back in 3 months period through August 2013. All in, this marks the tenth consecutive month of PMIs above 50 for India, with all but one of these months recording PMIs above 51.3.
5. China posted 5 consecutive months of PMIs reading below 50 in January-May 2014. This negative momentum was reversed in June-August with the current 3mo average standing at 50.9, 3mo average though May 2014 at 48.5 and 3mo average through August 2013 at 48.6.

One more point on Russian PMIs dynamics: the switch in trend from below 50 to above 50 took place in July and involved a PMI swing of 1.9 points - the sharpest recovery for all BRIC manufacturing sectors during the last round of recoveries. Despite this, we only have two months of data above 50.0 and it will require at least 2-3 months more to determine if the Russian manufacturing is moving back onto sustainable growth path or if the current improvements are temporary.

4/1/2013: Major economies PMIs for December 2012

Global PMI snapshot:

Previously covered:

• Asia (ex-China) here
• Netherlands here
• Euro area here
• Ireland here

Some top line performance for the global economy:

Manufacturing:

• US Manufacturing: December 50.7 from November 49.5 - statistically not significant as above 50 reading, so a shallow positive, with a swing of 1.2 ppts being a good indicator of gradual strengthening. New orders static at 50.3 and employment gains at 52.7 in December against 48.4 (contraction) in November.
• Germany: 46.0 in December a deterioration on already abysmal 46.8 reading in November. Clear contraction territory. 
• France: 44.6 in December after 44.5 in November - an outright recession.
• Italy: 46.7 in December on 45.1 in November - falling off the cliff at a slightly reduced rate.
• UK: 51.4 in December on 49.2 in November - expansion, albeit moderate in December.
• Japan: 45.0 in December, worse than already recessionary November reading of 46.5.
• China: 50.6 in December, unchanged on November - both not statistically significantly different from 50.0. Employment continues to contract: 49.0 in December on 48.7 in November, while New Orders are growing at 51.2 in both months - modest growth rate.
• Brazil: 51.1 in December on 52.2 in November - signalling slowdown in already weak growth in November.

So Manufacturing sector is pretty ugly.

Services:

• US: to 56.1 in December from 54.7 in November, confirming strong growth trend. Employment at 56.3 in December - a robust uplift, on top of relatively static 50.3 in November. New Orders rising to blistering 59.3 in December from 58.1 in November.
• Euro area: to 47.8 in December from 46.7 in November - both signalling contraction
• Germany: bucking the trend for the euro area to 52.0 in December from 49.7 in November, with now moderate expansion
• In contrast to Germany, France went deeper into contraction territory: 45.2 in December against 45.8 in November.
• Italy matched France and raised: 44.6 in December (a depression-level reading) from 46.0 in November (a recession reading).
• UK stumbled: 48.9 in December (mild contraction) against 50.2 (effectively flat) in November.
• China: robust 56.1 in December on foot of strong 55.6 in November
• Brazil slightly less impressive, but stil positive: 53.5 in December relative to 52.5 in November.

So Services are all over the shop with the euro area remaining the Ugly of the Bad.