4/8/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs

BRIC Manufacturing PMIs are out for July and the numbers are bizarre:

Brazil is going parabolic? The country is absolutely devastated by COVID19, although the Government is hell-bent on Malthusian 'let them mind their own health or die' tactic. And its Manufacturing PMI came in at a world-leading 58.2 in July, up on weak growth-signalling 51.6 in June. This is the highest monthly reading on record for Brazil. It is such an outlier, in terms of historical record, in terms of recent pre-COVID19 trends and in terms of international comparatives, one is wondering if the data was compiled by someone with some serious fever.

On the mid-range of surprises, China's Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8 in July compared to 51.2 in June. This marks second month of statistically positive growth-supporting PMI. China's Manufacturing PMIs are generally rather subdued, so 52.8 is the highest the index has been since January 2011. The outrun is not surprising, however, given that China managed to 'officially' contain COVID19 pandemic earlier in 2Q 2020 and moved to reopen its economy. Unlike in the case of Brazil, China's Manufacturing PMIs have been consistent (dynamically) with its Services PMIs.

On the downside surprise, Russia Manufacturing PMI fell in July to 48.4 from 49.4 in June. The index has now been nominally below 50 mark since May 2019, although June reading was not statistically different from 50.0. Still, July reading clearly shows deteriorating conditions in Russian manufacturing sectors.

On an even bigger downside surprise, India Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.0 in July down from 47.2 in June, marking fourth consecutive month of sub-50 readings. India's reading in July was the third lowest for any month since January 2009.

Overall, GDP-weighted BRIC Manufacturing PMI - computed by me using Markit countries-level data - stands at 51.1 in July, and improvement on 45.0 reading recorded over 2Q 2020.

6/7/20: Updated: 2Q 2020 Composite and Services PMIs for BRICs

As promised earlier (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/3720-services-composite-pmis-q2-2020.html), here are the BRIC Services and Composite PMIs for 2Q 2020 with updated Global PMIs. Note: my charts show quarterly PMIs, derived from the Markit's monthly data.

Services sectors:

As the above shows, 2Q 2020, Services sector growth in India and Russia lagged Global sector activity.

Manufacturing:

India, Russia and Brazil manufacturing sector activity lagged Global activity in 2Q 2020. The same three BRIC economies also lagged Global Composite PMI development:

Per Markit release, here are the main developments in Global PMIs on monthly basis:

Manufacturing Index Summary:

There are robust forward expectations in all sectors of the Global PMIs, per above. Input prices are rising, but output prices continue to contract, albeit at shallower rates. Employment is still falling in both sectors. New business is still contracting, albeit at a slower rate, with exports declining sharper than domestic orders.

Overall, the numbers are still indicating ongoing contraction through June for BRICs and for the Global economy.

Looking at monthly PMIs, China and Brazil posted above 50.0 readings in June for Manufacturing, and China also posted a highly robust growth signal for Services. Brazil posted deeply contractionary June Services PMI reading, while Russia shows contraction ongoing (but at a shallower rate than in May) in both sectors. India posted continued decline in Manufacturing and a sharp continued contraction in Services. These numbers put a question mark over the prospect for a V-shaped recovery. April 2020 marks the trough of PMIs-signalled growth in the BRICs. We now have second month in a row of rising PMIs readings, but the indices are still below 50 line. On a quarterly basis, however, 1Q 2020 marks the BRICs recession in terms of PMIs signals (Composite country indices), with 2Q 2020 posting shallower rates of decline compounding 1Q 2020 drops.

3/7/20: Services & Composite PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC

Note: charts below are not updated for full 2Q 2020 data on Global Services and Composite PMIs, which are yet to be reported for June and thus cover April-May period only. I will update these later.

Starting with Services sector activity:

BRIC Services index fell from a deeply recessionary 44.9 reading for 1Q 2020 to 40.9 in 2Q 2020, signalling accelerated rate of contraction in the sector across the four emerging markets economies. 1Q 2020 is now the second lowest quarter of index performance on the record, with 2Q 2020 coming in as the worst quarter on the record.

China was the strongest performer, with 2Q 2020 index at 52.6, four quarters high, and statistically in a relatively robust growth territory. Historically, this reading is consistent with GDP growth of 4-4.5 percent.

Russia recorded the second strongest reading, albeit at sharply recessionary 32.0 in 2Q 2020, down from the already recessionary 47.7 in 1Q 2020. 2Q 2020 is the lowest reading on record for Russian Services sectors. So being second wins no prizes.

Brazil Services PMI fell from a sharply recessionary 45.9 in 1Q 2020 to an even more depressing 30.3 in 2Q 2020. Needless to say, 2Q 2020 is the worst reading in Brazil Services PMI history.

India Services PMI has been signalling an outright collapse of economic activity in 2Q 2020, having fallen to 17.2 against 1Q 2020 reading of 54.1. The economy is literally paralysed.

In the entire history of BRICs PMIs, there has been only one other instance of two consecutive sub-50 readings - in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009, when the two-quarters average of the index was 47.7. Current index reading has !Q-2Q 2020 average of 42.6.

Given the above and the Manufacturing PMIs (covered here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/1720-manufacturing-pmis-q2-2020-bric.html), BRICs Composite Indices (note: I am using Markit data and relative GDP weights for each economy) have been woeful as well.

Brazil Composite average for 1Q 2020 was at 46.9. This fell to 31.8 in 2Q 2020. A recession in 1Q 2020 has accelerated dramatically into 2Q 2020 across all sectors of the economy.

Russia Composite average in 2Q 2020 was at 32.6, marginally better than that of Brazil, and well below already-recessionary reading of 47.7 in 1Q 2020. This, too, signals accelerating collapse of the economy.

India Composite index was in the expansionary territory at 54.8 in 1Q 2020 and it fell to an abysmally low 19.9 in 2Q 2020, indicating that the country economy came to a standstill in April-June. This is the lowest Composite index reading on record for any BRIC economy.

China Composite index fell from 52.6 in 4Q 2019 to a contractionary 42.0 in 1Q 2020, before recovering back to 52.6 in 2Q 2020. If treated symmetrically, this means that the Chinese economy did not fully recover to pre-crisis growth rates in 2Q 2020, but has made some progress on the path to recovery. There are multiple caveats that apply to this analysis, however, so treat it as purely directionally-indicative, as opposed to a measure of actual magnitudes.

As noted earlier, I will update these charts in subsequent posts, once we have Global PMIs reproted.

3/6/20: BRIC Composite PMIs for 2Q 2020

Having covered Manufacturing PMIs for 2Q 2020 for the BRIC economies here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/1620-3-months-of-covid19-impact-bric.html and Services PMIs here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/3620-bric-services-pmi-may-2020.html, time to update charts for Composite PMIs.

Brazil Composite PMI for 2Q 2020 is currently running at 27.3, the lowest on record, and marking a major decline on 46.9 reading in 1Q 2020. This implies that Brazil economy is currently registering sharply contractionary growth indicators in two consecutive quarters from the start of 2020. 

Russia Composite PMI for 2Q 2020 currently stands at 24.5, also a historical low, marking second consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. The last time Russian quarterly PMIs were statistically significantly below 50.0 was in 1Q and 2Q 2014. 

India Composite PMI for 2Q 2020 is currently registering the sharpest downturn of all BRIC economies at 11.0, down from strongly expansionary 54.8 in 1Q 2020. This marks the sharpest fall-off on pre-COVID19 reading for any BRIC economy and signals that the Indian economy is effectively stoped functioning.

China is the only BRIC economy so far to show signs of post-pandemic recovery. China 2Q 2020 Composite PMI is currently running at 51.1 which is statistically above 50.0 marker, signalling weak, but positive expansion. Still, 51.1 marks the second slowest growth reading in the Chinese economy since 2Q 2016. 

As the chart above indicates, Brazil, Russia and India all are currently running 2Q 2020 Composite PMIs below the Global Composite PMI (which is at 31.25 as of the end of May), while China Composite PMI is running well-ahead of the Global Composite PMI.

3/6/20: BRIC Services PMI: May 2020

Services PMIs for BRIC economies are out today, so we can updated 2Q figures to include data for May. The latest monthly print imply slight moderation in the economic contraction in Brazil, India and Russia, with return to Services sector growth in China. This marks the first month since end of January with China posting positive growth in Services (reading of PMI above 50).

Brazil Services PMI was statistically unchanged in May at 27.6, compared to April 27.4 reading. Last time the Brazilian Services sectors posted PMI reading consistent with no contraction (at 50.4 - statistically zero growth) was back in February 2020. Current running average PMI for 2Q 2020 is at 27.5, marking the lowest reading on record.

Russia Services PMI was up from an absolutely disastrous 12.2 reading in April to a somewhat less disastrous reading of 35.9 in May. The index has been at at 37.1 in March. 2Q index reading so far is at 24.1, an absolute historical low, marking the second quarter in a row of sub-50 indicator readings, consistent with sharp contraction.

China Services PMI was the only BRIC Services indicator that managed to reach above 50 in May. May index at 55.0 was consistent with a major recovery momentum compared to 44.4 recorded in April. At 49.7, however, the 2Q figure is still outside positive growth territory.

India Services PMI continued to show fundamental weaknesses in the economy. May Services PMI reading of 12.6 was an improvement on April reading of 5.4, but 2Q 2020 reading is currently at 9.0. 1Q 2020 Services activity reading was at 54.1, implying that Indian services activity has literally stopped on the dime in April-May 2020.

Overall, BRIC 2Q 2020 Services PMI is currently at 35.7, down from 1Q 2020 reading of 44.9. 2Q 2020 is currently the lowest quarterly PMI reading for BRIC in history.



I have covered BRIC Manufacturing PMIs for May 2020 here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/06/1620-3-months-of-covid19-impact-bric.html.