7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):

Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:

What the numbers above are telling us:

• New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.
• Daily deaths counts are currently at 5,399 for the last 7 days, which is lower than the 30-days average of 5,642, but still well above the historical average of 3,848. Some observers have noted in recent weeks that the deaths curve is down somewhat on the local peak attained around the first week of August. The decline, however, is very shallow and is driven not only by the improved treatment and detection, but also by the changing demographic of new cases (younger and healthier patients becoming impacted). There is, most likely, a residual issue of changes in geographies of new cases, that also impacts reporting and assignment of deaths. In simple terms, core data shows no encouraging trends so far in terms of daily deaths counts: the pandemic's Wave 1 continues. 

The above analysis is reflected in the growth rates. Stripping out some daily volatility, here are 7-day rolling average changes in both deaths and new cases:

The worrying trend in both series shown above is: 

• We are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• October (to-date) growth rates in both series are not only double-digits high, but are well above June-August averages and historical averages. They are also stronger than September averages. Tables below summarise these facts:

I will update other data sets on COVID19 pandemic evolution in subsequent posts, but the global trends clearly show that we are in a continued state of global pandemic still raging unabated.

Note: for those keen on looking at more recent changes, see my prior post on the same subject here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/25920-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html. 

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher

 Summary tables for 36 countries with 100,000 cases and above:

The U.S. continues to 'lead' the world in terms of sheer magnitude of the pandemic, followed by India, Brazil and Russia. The U.S. also continues to dominate the world tables in the numbers of people who died from the COVID19, followed by Brazil, India and Mexico. 

While the U.S. only accounts for 4.3% of the world population, it accounts for 22% of all cases of COVID19 and 21% of all deaths from the disease. 

Meanwhile, the highest per-capita rate of infections is registered in Quatar, followed by Panama and Peru. The highest per-capita deaths are in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, while the highest mortality rate (deaths per confirmed cases) are in Italy, Mexico and the UK.

Out of all countries with 100K cases and higher, plus the EU27, as ranked based on three criteria (cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case)

• The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer,
• The EU27 ranks 16th worst performer
• The U.S. ranks worse than any EU27 member state in the 100K table, with exception of Spain (ranked 3rd worst).

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

This week's update on worldwide numbers for the pandemic:

New cases are now trending up once again, as the world continues to experience the first wave of the pandemic. 

Meanwhile, new deaths remain relatively stable at highly elevated levels. The local trough in deaths counts that took place at the first week of June is now firmly surpassed and we are still close to the post-trough peak. 

The above conclusions are also confirmed by the growth rates which have ticked up significantly in the second half of September.

To see the trends more clearly:

Key takeaways from the above charts and tables:

• As of 12/09/2020, we have once again surpassed past all-time peak and are currently running at historical highs in terms of new cases.
• Local peak in daily deaths counts was attained in the first week of August. From then on, we are witnessing a mild moderation in daily deaths counts.  
• However, we are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• There is absolutely no evidence of any moderation in the global pandemic numbers, and there are alarming trends in the numbers coming from the geographies that have experienced the most severe first wave of the pandemic prior, namely Europe (see net post on this).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with more than 100,000 cases

 
Some descriptive stats and relative rankings for countries with the largest number of cases:

In terms of relative and population-adjusted performance metrics:

• The U.S. ranks 6th highest in the pandemic extent (number of positive cases per 1 million of population). The EU27 as a whole ranks 23rd highest.
• The U.S. ranks 8th highest in terms of deaths per capita (number of deaths per 1 million of population). The EU 27 ranks 14th highest.
• The U.S. ranks 18th highest in terms of mortality rates (deaths per case). The EU 27 ranks 7th highest. 
• The U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world's population, but the country accounts for 24% of all global cases, and 22% of all deaths. In comparison, the EU27 accounts for 6% of the world's population, 8% of all cases, and 16% of all deaths.
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison (32 sum score) is worse than that of the EU (44 sum score), Italy (35 sum score), Israel (64 sum score), Germany (70 sum score), France (37 sum score), and Canada (51 sum score).
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison is better than that of Spain (23 sum score) and the UK (29 sum score).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Global cases are now once again on the rise and hitting new historical highs:

Daily deaths are running at elevated levels and showing signs of some uptick on the recent local lows:

As the result, both new cases counts and deaths growth rates are now positive and rising:

In summary, the pandemic continues to rage across the globe, without any moderation. Significantly, there is now a full-blown second wave underway in Europe (more on this later). 

12/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The global COVID19 pandemic is refusing to go away. Day 247 and the dynamics of new cases and daily deaths remain as worrying as ever, just as the public and the politicians have largely settled into the strange 'ignore and forget' pattern of thinking about the threats.

Here are the daily new cases and deaths charts:

Key takeaways from the above two charts are:

1. There is no amelioration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of new cases: we are still at the peak levels of contagion worldwide.
2. Earlier hopes for decline in new cases worldwide has now been replaced by a re-acceleration in the new cases arrivals.
3. Historical average daily new cases is 115,366. Last 30 days average is 263,940 new cases per day and last 7 days average is 267,832. The pandemic is getting worse, not better.
4. Historical average daily deaths is 3,710. In the last 30 days, the average has been 5,603 and in the last seven days, 5,863. 
5. The peak of daily deaths occurred back in mid-April owing to a number of factors, that can be considered as exceptional. These include heavy concentration of COVID19 cases, lack of medical experience in treating COVID19 cases, demographic biases in early wave of COVID19 cases, and so on. On-trend, the peak was around 7,000 daily deaths.
6. Since the peak, daily deaths counts did not decay beyond the local trough around the end of May - a trough that was less than 50 percent lower than the peak (not an impressive moderation for a pandemic). The trough was set at around 4,050 daily deaths.
7. Since then, however, matters worsened once again, with a new local peak reached at around 6,000 cases in the last week of July. Deaths counts have been bouncing around 5,600-5,700 daily cases since then.

These worrying numbers are confirmed by the dynamics - the rates of change in the series:

As you can see from the chart above, the data is exhibiting a risk of rapid re-acceleration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of both, new case numbers and deaths. Of course, the data is volatile, so it is hard to tell if the new re-acceleration of growth rates to 15.8 and 24.4 percent for new cases and deaths, respectively, is going to hold. Nonetheless, nominally, we are no longer witnessing the second derivative (acceleration) moderating. Which means we are at a risk of rising severity of the already horrific trend. 

Here is a handy summary table of comparative growth rates:

Please note, these are growth rates that are already smoothed by using 7 days average! 

Fir numbers geeks amongst us, here is a summary table of comparatives for 33 countries, plus the EU27, that have more than 100,000 cases reported. Last time I updated these figures on August 30, there were 30 countries in this club.

Due to deterioration in the global pandemic conditions, EU27 is now ranked as an 'average' (statistically) territory. The U.S. remains 'worse than average'. 

The same table by aggregating countries by some internationally-recognized groupings:

And a descriptive statistics table for all countries with > 100,000 cases:

In summary, the pandemic is not going away. We are months before the start of the 'normal' flu season in the Northern Hemisphere, when temperatures outside force much of the activity - work, social, personal - indoors and into closer proximity to others. More inclement weather is coming to the largest concentrations of people on Earth, not only in Europe (already living through the second wave of the pandemic) and North America (still struggling with the first wave), but also to Asia-Pacific and the likes of India (which already outpaced Brazil to the second place in terms of infections after the World Series leader, the US of A). 

The brighter news on the horizon, currently, are the news relating to the vaccines development. But these vaccines are unlikely to hit mass markets any time soon, at least not before the October-November flu season onset. 

30/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating charts for COVID19 worldwide data, with main comments in the charts:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat (running at approximately constant rate) at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day). This suggest that although pandemic growth rate has fallen to close to zero, the pandemic continues.
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 259,500, with the current 7-days average at 255,986. This implies a mild moderation in the rate of daily cases arrivals that statistically is close to nil, as noted above.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 25 in 5 days, which is an improvement on the mid-August trends.
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 240-245,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic. This conclusion is further supported by the evidence that Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific where the pandemic's first wave started earlier in the year are now experiencing robust increases in new cases (see subsequent post on EU27 data).

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. Last 7 days average is -0.86%. This suggests that slight moderation in new death counts experience earlier in August has been declining toward zero in more recent days.
• In the mean time, daily deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,726 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,360.

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.27% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. 

Due to steadily increasing number of countries with large number of cases, I have adjusted my summary tables and analysis for countries with largest impact of the pandemic to those with 100K+ cases (prior tables covered countries with 25K+ cases):

Key conclusion: the pandemic remains unabated. The rates of growth in cases and deaths might be moderating, but daily counts of both remain high and consistent with peak levels of the pandemic. We are now 6 months into the full pandemic development and there are few signs of any material improvements on the ground. Almost 25 million people have now been officially identified as being infected and almost 840,000 people have died from the condition, per official counts.

23/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating latest data for COVID19 pandemic - comments in charts

New cases and deaths: daily counts

Key trends in thee above:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day).
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 258,816, with the current 7-days average at 252,383.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 10 in 1 day, and in 11-25th place in 4 days. 
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 220-225,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic.
• Death rates have peaked in mid-April, but the extent of subsequent declines is largely artificially contrasted to past higher rates, due to: 

1. Delayed reporting, especially in April, primarily in Europe (nursing homes deaths);
2. Lags between new cases arrivals and deaths;
3. Shift in new cases to younger demographics; 
4. Improved detection/testing;
5. Shift in the pandemic intensity toward countries with different reporting methodologies.

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.66%. Last 7 days average is -4.42%. 
• However, deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,882 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,663 deaths.

Trend growth rates:

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.65% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.66%. Last 7 days average is -4.42%. 

Two summary tables of stats: G7+ and BRIICS:

Recent divergence in deaths counts dynamics from the new case counts dynamics can be indicative  of:

1. Improving rates of detection (earlier detection) of cases 

2. Learning from treating COVID19 patients 

3. The pandemic working through a decreasing density of older population impacted by the disease (due to increasing numbers of detections amongst younger patients)

4. Younger demographics of the new geographical concentrations of COVID19, and

5. Differences in cases and deaths recordings from the early stage of the pandemic (countries with deaths recorded on a primary cause basis, as opposed to COVID19 attribution in the presence of virus).

18/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating World counts and major cases through August 18, 2020 (ECDC timing):

First, top countries by case numbers (> 25,000 total cases) (color coding legend in the second part of the table):

Next, dynamics of new cases:

Some moderation in new cases growth rate (7-day average trend is flat, with early signs of possible reversal downward after months of increases).

And dynamics of daily deaths counts:

Hopefully, the gentle drop in the trend (14 days moving average) is going to be sustained from here on.

4/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

Global deaths and case counts charts through ECDC data as of 4/07/2020:

Summary of the above:

• Some improved dynamics in death counts since July 31, 2020 indicate potential moderation in COVID19 deaths going forward.
• Notably, we are still in the first wave of COVID19 deaths, which suggests that any moderation in daily deaths counts in August-September is subject to risk of re-acceleration later on in the Fall.
• No significant signs of improvements in daily new cases counts, supporting cautionary interpretation of the current death counts moderation,

The world is clearly not out of the woods yet on the first wave of the pandemic.

Summary tables for countries with > 25,000 cases:

Note: countries with more than 500,000 cases are highlighted in red.

6/7/20: Updated: 2Q 2020 Composite and Services PMIs for BRICs

As promised earlier (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/3720-services-composite-pmis-q2-2020.html), here are the BRIC Services and Composite PMIs for 2Q 2020 with updated Global PMIs. Note: my charts show quarterly PMIs, derived from the Markit's monthly data.

Services sectors:

As the above shows, 2Q 2020, Services sector growth in India and Russia lagged Global sector activity.

Manufacturing:

India, Russia and Brazil manufacturing sector activity lagged Global activity in 2Q 2020. The same three BRIC economies also lagged Global Composite PMI development:

Per Markit release, here are the main developments in Global PMIs on monthly basis:

Manufacturing Index Summary:

There are robust forward expectations in all sectors of the Global PMIs, per above. Input prices are rising, but output prices continue to contract, albeit at shallower rates. Employment is still falling in both sectors. New business is still contracting, albeit at a slower rate, with exports declining sharper than domestic orders.

Overall, the numbers are still indicating ongoing contraction through June for BRICs and for the Global economy.

Looking at monthly PMIs, China and Brazil posted above 50.0 readings in June for Manufacturing, and China also posted a highly robust growth signal for Services. Brazil posted deeply contractionary June Services PMI reading, while Russia shows contraction ongoing (but at a shallower rate than in May) in both sectors. India posted continued decline in Manufacturing and a sharp continued contraction in Services. These numbers put a question mark over the prospect for a V-shaped recovery. April 2020 marks the trough of PMIs-signalled growth in the BRICs. We now have second month in a row of rising PMIs readings, but the indices are still below 50 line. On a quarterly basis, however, 1Q 2020 marks the BRICs recession in terms of PMIs signals (Composite country indices), with 2Q 2020 posting shallower rates of decline compounding 1Q 2020 drops.