25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher

 Summary tables for 36 countries with 100,000 cases and above:

The U.S. continues to 'lead' the world in terms of sheer magnitude of the pandemic, followed by India, Brazil and Russia. The U.S. also continues to dominate the world tables in the numbers of people who died from the COVID19, followed by Brazil, India and Mexico. 

While the U.S. only accounts for 4.3% of the world population, it accounts for 22% of all cases of COVID19 and 21% of all deaths from the disease. 

Meanwhile, the highest per-capita rate of infections is registered in Quatar, followed by Panama and Peru. The highest per-capita deaths are in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, while the highest mortality rate (deaths per confirmed cases) are in Italy, Mexico and the UK.

Out of all countries with 100K cases and higher, plus the EU27, as ranked based on three criteria (cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case)

• The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer,
• The EU27 ranks 16th worst performer
• The U.S. ranks worse than any EU27 member state in the 100K table, with exception of Spain (ranked 3rd worst).

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating U.S. and EU27 numbers for COVID19 pandemic for the last 7 days:

Per above chart, the U.S. continues to pull away from EU27 in terms of deaths per capita of population. However, as shown in the chart net, EU27 is now in a full-blown contagion wave number 2, with new cases exceeding prior (wave 1) peaks.

The increase in new cases in Europe is now also reflected in rising death counts. Current EU27 death counts are in excess of the numbers that triggered winter shutdown of the European economies.

Key takeaways from the above:

• EU27 is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic, with case numbers well in excess of anything witnessed during the first wave peak.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 3 occasions.
• Despite this, overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above those in the EU27 (as been the case since July 12). Current excess gap at +59,010 up from +40,079 a month ago and +11,917 two months ago. The gap is still rising.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (326.5 currently). U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (619.9 currently).
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 90 percent above that for the EU27 and this gap is still widening.
• Currently, adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 96,000 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 100,500 higher than that of the EU27. 
• Adjustments for differences in demographics between the U.S. and the EU27 would increase the above numbers of excess  mortality even more, while adjusting for the state of public health in the U.S. (obesity, poor nutrition, neglect of chronic conditions etc) will reduce the number. While these factors cannot be directly accounted for in my estimates (I am sure, medical research will be able to do thus), I strongly suspect that the two factors will offset each other. Hence, excess mortality in the U.S. compared to the EU27 stands at around 95-100,000 people. All killed, to a large extent, by the inadequate public health system and policy responses in the U.S.

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

This week's update on worldwide numbers for the pandemic:

New cases are now trending up once again, as the world continues to experience the first wave of the pandemic. 

Meanwhile, new deaths remain relatively stable at highly elevated levels. The local trough in deaths counts that took place at the first week of June is now firmly surpassed and we are still close to the post-trough peak. 

The above conclusions are also confirmed by the growth rates which have ticked up significantly in the second half of September.

To see the trends more clearly:

Key takeaways from the above charts and tables:

• As of 12/09/2020, we have once again surpassed past all-time peak and are currently running at historical highs in terms of new cases.
• Local peak in daily deaths counts was attained in the first week of August. From then on, we are witnessing a mild moderation in daily deaths counts.  
• However, we are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
• Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
• There is absolutely no evidence of any moderation in the global pandemic numbers, and there are alarming trends in the numbers coming from the geographies that have experienced the most severe first wave of the pandemic prior, namely Europe (see net post on this).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with more than 100,000 cases

 
Some descriptive stats and relative rankings for countries with the largest number of cases:

In terms of relative and population-adjusted performance metrics:

• The U.S. ranks 6th highest in the pandemic extent (number of positive cases per 1 million of population). The EU27 as a whole ranks 23rd highest.
• The U.S. ranks 8th highest in terms of deaths per capita (number of deaths per 1 million of population). The EU 27 ranks 14th highest.
• The U.S. ranks 18th highest in terms of mortality rates (deaths per case). The EU 27 ranks 7th highest. 
• The U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world's population, but the country accounts for 24% of all global cases, and 22% of all deaths. In comparison, the EU27 accounts for 6% of the world's population, 8% of all cases, and 16% of all deaths.
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison (32 sum score) is worse than that of the EU (44 sum score), Italy (35 sum score), Israel (64 sum score), Germany (70 sum score), France (37 sum score), and Canada (51 sum score).
• U.S. country relative positioning across three metrics for comparison is better than that of Spain (23 sum score) and the UK (29 sum score).

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating charts for the U.S. and EU27:

• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (321.7 currently).
• U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (604.1 currently).
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +55,593 up from +34,553 a month ago and +6,187 two months ago.
• Currently, adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 92,384 more deaths than the EU27. 
• Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 98,726 higher than that of the EU27.

Big news is that, as stated in prior updates, the EU is now officially in a second wave of pandemic:

Although deaths in the EU remain below prior wave peak, these are rising and, accounting for lags in new cases, are likely to continue to climb:

Meanwhile, the U.S. numbers are starting to show some indicative signs of re-acceleration. If confirmed, the U.S. will also join the EU27 in entering a second wave of the pandemic.

For now, the EU27 continues to exhibit better cumulative case counts and deaths counts than the U.S., in absolute terms and adjusted for population differences and vintage of the pandemic onset.

On a cumulated basis to-date, the U.S. public health system is now responsible for ca 92-99,000 excess deaths compared to the EU27 - deaths that would have been preventable were the U.S. policymakers to give a damn about public health system in America. This should be criminal, but sadly, it appears to be normal. 

18/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Global cases are now once again on the rise and hitting new historical highs:

Daily deaths are running at elevated levels and showing signs of some uptick on the recent local lows:

As the result, both new cases counts and deaths growth rates are now positive and rising:

In summary, the pandemic continues to rage across the globe, without any moderation. Significantly, there is now a full-blown second wave underway in Europe (more on this later). 

13/9/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

 I have not updated the controversial comparatives between the Nordics (ex-Sweden) and Sweden in terms of COVID19 pandemic figures for some time now. For those of you who are out of the loop in this controversy, 

• Sweden imposed weak restrictions (basically none) on mobility and work environments in the wake of the pandemic, pursuing the strategy of 'herd immunity';
• Other Nordics imposed severe crack downs on mobility and social and work environments in response to COVID19 pandemic.

There has been a lot of controversy as to the effectiveness of the lack thereof of the Swedish strategy.

So here are the key data trends and points:

Key takeaways from the above:

• As of September 12, Sweden has the total number of 89,377 cases. Nordics ex-Sweden, normalized to the Swedish population size had 35,277 cases, or 39.5% of the total number of Swedish cases. So to-date, Sweden has experienced significantly greater exposure to the virus than its Nordic countries counterparts.
• As of September 12, Sweden has the total number of 5,829 deaths. Nordics ex-Sweden, normalized to the Swedish population size had 2,188 cases, or 37.5% of the total number of Swedish deaths. Sweden also experienced much higher death counts from the pandemic than its Nordic countries counterparts.
• Notably, per first chart above, since 26-27th of August, Nordic ex-Sweden have experienced a rather substantial re-acceleration in new cases, in line with the rest of the EU27 (see more on this here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/12920-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). Sweden is only appearing to show signs of such re-acceleration starting with the end of the first week of September.
• The above change in trends for new cases is yet to translate into change in trends in deaths: in the last 7 days, average daily new deaths for Nordics ex-Sweden, adjusting for population differences, was 0.83. The same number fo Sweden was 1.57. In the prior 14 days, the averages were reversed at 1.034 and 0.571, respectively.

Watch the new wave developing in days ahead... 

12/9/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The global COVID19 pandemic is refusing to go away. Day 247 and the dynamics of new cases and daily deaths remain as worrying as ever, just as the public and the politicians have largely settled into the strange 'ignore and forget' pattern of thinking about the threats.

Here are the daily new cases and deaths charts:

Key takeaways from the above two charts are:

1. There is no amelioration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of new cases: we are still at the peak levels of contagion worldwide.
2. Earlier hopes for decline in new cases worldwide has now been replaced by a re-acceleration in the new cases arrivals.
3. Historical average daily new cases is 115,366. Last 30 days average is 263,940 new cases per day and last 7 days average is 267,832. The pandemic is getting worse, not better.
4. Historical average daily deaths is 3,710. In the last 30 days, the average has been 5,603 and in the last seven days, 5,863. 
5. The peak of daily deaths occurred back in mid-April owing to a number of factors, that can be considered as exceptional. These include heavy concentration of COVID19 cases, lack of medical experience in treating COVID19 cases, demographic biases in early wave of COVID19 cases, and so on. On-trend, the peak was around 7,000 daily deaths.
6. Since the peak, daily deaths counts did not decay beyond the local trough around the end of May - a trough that was less than 50 percent lower than the peak (not an impressive moderation for a pandemic). The trough was set at around 4,050 daily deaths.
7. Since then, however, matters worsened once again, with a new local peak reached at around 6,000 cases in the last week of July. Deaths counts have been bouncing around 5,600-5,700 daily cases since then.

These worrying numbers are confirmed by the dynamics - the rates of change in the series:

As you can see from the chart above, the data is exhibiting a risk of rapid re-acceleration in the pandemic dynamics in terms of both, new case numbers and deaths. Of course, the data is volatile, so it is hard to tell if the new re-acceleration of growth rates to 15.8 and 24.4 percent for new cases and deaths, respectively, is going to hold. Nonetheless, nominally, we are no longer witnessing the second derivative (acceleration) moderating. Which means we are at a risk of rising severity of the already horrific trend. 

Here is a handy summary table of comparative growth rates:

Please note, these are growth rates that are already smoothed by using 7 days average! 

Fir numbers geeks amongst us, here is a summary table of comparatives for 33 countries, plus the EU27, that have more than 100,000 cases reported. Last time I updated these figures on August 30, there were 30 countries in this club.

Due to deterioration in the global pandemic conditions, EU27 is now ranked as an 'average' (statistically) territory. The U.S. remains 'worse than average'. 

The same table by aggregating countries by some internationally-recognized groupings:

And a descriptive statistics table for all countries with > 100,000 cases:

In summary, the pandemic is not going away. We are months before the start of the 'normal' flu season in the Northern Hemisphere, when temperatures outside force much of the activity - work, social, personal - indoors and into closer proximity to others. More inclement weather is coming to the largest concentrations of people on Earth, not only in Europe (already living through the second wave of the pandemic) and North America (still struggling with the first wave), but also to Asia-Pacific and the likes of India (which already outpaced Brazil to the second place in terms of infections after the World Series leader, the US of A). 

The brighter news on the horizon, currently, are the news relating to the vaccines development. But these vaccines are unlikely to hit mass markets any time soon, at least not before the October-November flu season onset. 

12/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

After some pause, the latest update for the U.S. vs EU27 Covid19 pandemic comparatives: 

• In summary: the basket case of the U.S. is getting somewhat challenged by the second wave sweeping across Europe, and we are still months away from the traditional flu season.

So here are the details:

As it says on the 'tin': new cases continue to climb in the U.S., albeit at slower pace of daily new additions than before. EU is showing acceleration in new cases growth, but for now, the rate of new cases additions in Europe is still well-behind that of the U.S. 

In terms of deaths per capita, the U.S. continues to pull away from Europe:

Key takeaways from the above graph are:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 590.0 against the EU27's 318.3. Ouch!
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 85 percent above that for the EU27. Going for the double within the next month, based on the trend.
• This means that overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. And things are getting worse: current excess gap is at +52,015 up from +29,428 a month ago and +1,841 two months ago.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 88,868 more deaths (call them the excess deaths) than the EU27. Adjusted for the later onset of the pandemic and population differences, America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 98,786 higher than that of the EU27. Time to blame Obama and China, or, if that fails, Putin.

Daily new case counts:

Daily new deaths counts:

Key takeaways from the last two charts:

• Europe has now entered a full-fledged second wave of contagion.
• This contagion is more widely distributed across countries, which makes it less 'visible' compared to the first wave. 
• Numbers counts in Europe are now at the prior wave's peaks, and massively above the levels that triggered original shutdowns and quarantines. 
• All of the above means that the deaths counts are rising, albeit off low levels, and will continue to rise.
• Meanwhile, in the (misnamed) Land of the Buffalo (yeah, Bison ain't Buffalo, folks) things are not getting better. They are just getting worse slower. 
• U.S. deaths are running at daily rates well-above the first cycle trough, although it is too early to call this a 'second wave', yet. New cases remain very high, albeit significantly off the first wave peak.

A handy comparative table:

Meanwhile, the stock markets are roaring like a drunken Boris in a sauna around hour 2 of steaming.

30/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Updating charts for COVID19 pandemic for EU27 and the U.S.:

As per above two charts:

• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (313.0 currently).
• U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (555.6 currently).
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +42,946 up from +15,413 a month ago. 
• In other words, despite the facts that (1) EU27 population is significantly larger than that of the U.S., (2) The U.S. onset of pandemic is of later vintage than that of the EU27, allowing for more significant impact of learning and pre-peak preparations in the U.S., and (3) The U.S. demographic being younger than of the EU27, the U.S. has experienced almost 43,000 more deaths than the EU27.
• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate:  Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 555.6; Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 313.0.
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 77 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +42,946 up from +15,413 a month ago.

Per above charts and table:

• The U.S. is still experiencing its first wave of infections. 
• The trend in the U.S. suggest that the peak infection has taken place in the second half of July. 
• The EU27 daily counts of new cases are on a sustained and rapid rise since mid-July and currently exceed the levels at which the original EU lockdowns were imposed. In fact, new cases counts are now approaching prior peak for the EU27.
• U.S. deaths are continuing to run substantially above those in the EU27.  
• Adjusting these for vintage of cases, expanded learning curve in treatments and testing that the later pandemic onset in  the U.S. implies, this severely poor performance of the U.S. cannot be explained by any factors other than political decisions and the dismal state of public health system.
• Since mid-July, EU27 new cases are now trending slightly up once again, and deaths are starting or rise as well.
• The table above shows that during August, 892 more Americans died a day, on average, compared to the residents of the EU27. Given the fact that the U.S. deaths reporting is more lagged and less consistent that for the EU27, this number is likely an underestimate of the true extent of the gap. 
• Notably, higher deaths in the U.S. in August are in excess of the same in June and July.

Perhaps the best way to summarize thee bleak reality of the U.S. numbers is by relating these to relative shares of world population:

30/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating charts for COVID19 worldwide data, with main comments in the charts:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat (running at approximately constant rate) at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day). This suggest that although pandemic growth rate has fallen to close to zero, the pandemic continues.
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 259,500, with the current 7-days average at 255,986. This implies a mild moderation in the rate of daily cases arrivals that statistically is close to nil, as noted above.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 25 in 5 days, which is an improvement on the mid-August trends.
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 240-245,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic. This conclusion is further supported by the evidence that Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific where the pandemic's first wave started earlier in the year are now experiencing robust increases in new cases (see subsequent post on EU27 data).

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. Last 7 days average is -0.86%. This suggests that slight moderation in new death counts experience earlier in August has been declining toward zero in more recent days.
• In the mean time, daily deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,726 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,360.

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.27% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.36%. 

Due to steadily increasing number of countries with large number of cases, I have adjusted my summary tables and analysis for countries with largest impact of the pandemic to those with 100K+ cases (prior tables covered countries with 25K+ cases):

Key conclusion: the pandemic remains unabated. The rates of growth in cases and deaths might be moderating, but daily counts of both remain high and consistent with peak levels of the pandemic. We are now 6 months into the full pandemic development and there are few signs of any material improvements on the ground. Almost 25 million people have now been officially identified as being infected and almost 840,000 people have died from the condition, per official counts.

23/8/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 

Updating pandemic data for the U.S. vs EU27 comparatives. All comments in charts.

Key takeaways:

• Since the start of August, U.S. averages 51,004 new cases per day and 1,056 deaths per day.  Over the same time, EU27 averaged 12,452 new cases per day and 126 deaths per day.
• Since mid-July, EU27 new cases and daily deaths are now trending up once again, with current daily rates at the levels above those that triggered the first shutdowns in March.
• The EU27 daily counts of new cases are now on a sustained rise since mid-July and currently exceed the levels at which the original EU lockdowns were imposed.
• The U.S. is still experiencing its first wave of infections. The trend in the U.S. suggest that the peak infection has taken place in late July. 

• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12, with current excess gap at +38,432 up from +9,409 a month ago.
• Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, 2020, and the trend for the U.S. continues to be worse than that for the EU27.
• EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (310.9 currently). U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (531.9 currently).
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 73 percent above that for the EU27. 
• Thus, there are 228 more deaths per 1 million of population in the U.S. to-date than in the EU27.

23/8/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 

Updating latest data for COVID19 pandemic - comments in charts

New cases and deaths: daily counts

Key trends in thee above:

• Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. Since the start of August, however, new daily cases additions have been flat at the levels close to the prior peak trend (< 260,000 per day).
• In the last 30 days, average number of new cases stood at 258,816, with the current 7-days average at 252,383.
• Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 10 in 1 day, and in 11-25th place in 4 days. 
• Overall, there are some indications in the more recent data that the trend in new cases will likely moderate toward 220-225,000 per day in the next 7-10 days. Such a moderation will not, in itself, be sufficient to mark the end of the first wave of the pandemic.
• Death rates have peaked in mid-April, but the extent of subsequent declines is largely artificially contrasted to past higher rates, due to: 

1. Delayed reporting, especially in April, primarily in Europe (nursing homes deaths);
2. Lags between new cases arrivals and deaths;
3. Shift in new cases to younger demographics; 
4. Improved detection/testing;
5. Shift in the pandemic intensity toward countries with different reporting methodologies.

• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.66%. Last 7 days average is -4.42%. 
• However, deaths are still running at high rates. 30-days average is 5,882 deaths per day and 7-days average is 5,663 deaths.

Trend growth rates:

• New daily cases growth rates are moderating. July average daily growth rate in new cases was 10.35%. This fell to 0.65% in August (to-date).
• In July, average growth in death cases was +5.79%. August-to-date, the average is -2.66%. Last 7 days average is -4.42%. 

Two summary tables of stats: G7+ and BRIICS:

Recent divergence in deaths counts dynamics from the new case counts dynamics can be indicative  of:

1. Improving rates of detection (earlier detection) of cases 

2. Learning from treating COVID19 patients 

3. The pandemic working through a decreasing density of older population impacted by the disease (due to increasing numbers of detections amongst younger patients)

4. Younger demographics of the new geographical concentrations of COVID19, and

5. Differences in cases and deaths recordings from the early stage of the pandemic (countries with deaths recorded on a primary cause basis, as opposed to COVID19 attribution in the presence of virus).