Updating data for COVID19 pandemic worldwide:
- Wave 1 peaked around April 9th and the first trough took place around the end of April.
- Wave 2 started from the first days of May and peaked between August 1 and August 14.
- Wave 3 started from the second trough of August 27-29th and has (to-date) peaked around November 21.
- Wave 1: peaking around April 22 generated a post-peak trough around June 3 that is statistically significantly below the peak values. This defines a statistically valid wave.
- Wave 2: starting from around June 7 and peaking around August 13. This wave ended in a trough of September 22 which is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. This means it is harder to call this a genuine wave.
- Wave 3: starting from around October 23 and currently still accelerating. There is zero doubt that this is a well-defined wave.
In summary, the pandemic continues to rage and it appears that much welcomed moderation in the new cases dynamics witnessed in the last week of November is unlikely to hold. Worse, within a week, we will be going into pre-holidays mode around the world and in the U.S. we will be also experiencing lagged cases uplifts due to Thanksgiving travel.
Stay safe everyone: December will be a hellish month.