Friday, October 31, 2014

31/10/2014: Eurocoin Falls Again in October

Meanwhile, in the vastly-repaired, improvingly-coordinated, enhancely-harmonised Euro area, leading growth indicator, Eurocoin (published by Banca d'Italia and CEPR) posted another (4th consecutive monthly decline in October, falling from massively anaemic 0.13 in September to even more anaemic 0.08 in October.

The projected underlying GDP growth rate is now back at zero, having posted a 'recovery' to 0.1% in Q3 2014.

And the ECB is now even more stuck in the proverbial dark corner of near-deflation, zero growth and zero interest rates:

The drivers to the downside?

Industrial production is down across all Big 4 economies:

Business Confidence is down everywhere, save in Spain:

Consumer surveys down in performance terms everywhere and below zero on balance in France and Italy:

With stock markets performance markedly deteriorating, this means the only previous consistent support for 'growth forecasts' is also gone:

And the 'exports-led' recovery is just... err... shall we say 'fizzled out'?

But keep reminding yourselves, this is a 'European Century'...

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