3/10/2014: Russian Services & Composite PMIs: September 2014

Russia Services and Composite PMIs were released today by Markit/HSBC for September.

I covered relatively poor performance of the Manufacturing PMI here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/1102014-russian-manufacturing-pmi.html and comparatives between BRICs for Manufacturing were discussed here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/2102014-bric-manufacturing-pmis-things.html

On Services PMI side:

• September PMI came in at 50.5 which is basically unchanged on 50.3 in August and signals weak growth (statistically, this reading is not significantly different from 50.0).
• 3mo MA is now at 50.2 (barely above 50.0) although that is an improvement on Q2 2014 reading of 47.6, yet poorer than Q3 2013 reading of 50.7.

On Composite PMI side:

• Composite PMI declined marginally from 51.1 in August to 50.9 in September, still staying ahead of 50.0. Both readings were, however, statistically not significantly different from 50.0, implying weak expansion in output.
• Q3 average is at 51.1, which is a lot better than 48.3 average for Q2 2014 and is ahead of 50.4 average in Q3 2013.

Chart below shows three PMIs together and identifies October-November 2012 are the period of trend shift toward falling PMIs.

Overall, activity remains subdued across all sectors of the Russian economy and growth signals from PMIs suggest that this year growth is likely to be in the range of around 0.4-0.5%.

Comparatives with BRICs are coming up later today, so stay tuned.