Here are few charts and some analysis.
Per chart above, seasonally adjusted LR rose from 452,500 in July to 455,000 in August, an increase of 2,500. Added cost to the Exchequer - ca €63mln per annum. Added cost to the economy - 2.5 times that. Added cost to the society - much greater than the latter. Added cost to those who lost their jobs and their families - incalculably high.So far, year on year to August 2010 there was an unadjusted increase in the Live Register of
30,198 (+6.9%). This compares with an increase of 34,403 (+8.0%) in the year to July 2010. Now, that doesn't look like a stabilization to me.
There was an increase of 700 males and 1,900 females in the seasonally adjusted series in August. Which means services are tanking faster than manufacturing.
The average net weekly increase in the seasonally adjusted series in August 2010 was 625, which compares with a weekly increase of 1,700 in the previous month. Chart below illustrates
Both monthly and weekly increases are now below 6 months moving average lines, both of which are still trending up. Momentum suggests moderate mean reversion in September/October. Which brings us to unemployment levels.
Standardised unemployment rate in August was 13.8%, and all indications are it will continue to rise.Finally, charting the changes together:
My suggestion that latest breakdown between men and women joining LR shows jobs destruction in services sectors is supported by the CSO analysis of detailed data.
Overall,
- Craft and related (25.5%) was the largest occupational group on the Live Register in August,
- Plant and machine operatives (15.4%) second largest, followed by
- Personal and protection service (10.7%) and
- Clerical and secretarial (10.7%).
- Largest percentage increase was in the Professional group (+1.2%)
Per CSO: "There were increases in six of the nine occupational groups in the six months to August for males on the Live Register. The largest percentage increase was in the Associate, professional and technical group (+12.0%), with the largest decreases in the Managers and administrators and Personal and protective service groups (both -0.8%). For females there were increases in all occupational groups in the six months to August 2010. The largest percentage increase was in the Professional group (+43.3%) followed by the Other occupation group (+25.8%)."
Live Register duration also rose, for males and females in 6 months to August 2010, suggesting severe pressures in the jobs market continue.
Of greater interest will bee changes in the labor force participation - to be shown in QNHS results. I suspect we will see severe contraction in overall number of people working or seeking work in the country.
2 comments:
great reading Constantin.
a question that comes to my mind is what would the total unemployment rate in the country be when taking into account those not registard on the live register like the self employed ect that are not entitled to state payment or are recieving payments through local health boards i would figure this number would bring up the percentages much higher.
The true figures are far higher, and far more serious than anyone can imagine. Factoring in emigration, the people on FAS courses who are off the live register, and those unable to claim due to being ineligible i.e. (savings in bank exceeding 20k), those not yet approved and on the register due to 3 month long incompetent application processes, takes the figure into the stratosphere. Eaomon O`Cuiv`s response to this, lacking a real job creation programme, is to force people to work in menial jobs to bring the figures down and make things look rosy for the markets next year. God help us please....
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