Friday, September 24, 2010

Economics 24/9/10: EU-wide slowdown confirmed

Eurocoin for August 2010 has confirmed that composite leading indicators for the Euro area growth are pointing to continued deterioration in growth in Q3 2010. Eurocoin has declined to 0.37 i n August from 0.4 in July, marking a 5th consecutive monthly drop.

Here's the chart:
My forecast for next Eurocoin to reach 0.34 in September and Q3 2010 growth to slide to 0.2-0.25%. My previous forecast for Eurocoin for August-September (issued in June and confirmed in July) was 0.34.

3 comments:

ottogunsche said...

This may sound like a stupid question but indulge me here.
EuroCoin presumably tracks only the Eurozone countries?

Our biggest trading partner, UK, is presumably not included in the figures you published Constantin?

TrueEconomics said...

Indeed, neither does it cover the US - our singularly largest exporting partner, responsible for purchasing 25.66% more of our exports in 2009 than the UK.

ottogunsche said...

Thanks for this clarification.

If the markets in to which we export are starting to contract, this could well spell even more trouble for our economy.
The only positive indicator in our economy at the moment is our export capability - which is driven by external demand.
If that demand starts to ease off, it will be another nail in this country's economic coffin.