Falling from disgrace

Ah, another day, another screw up in the Biffoland – the veritable emporium of economic policy oddities and quaint Boggerista collectibles. So much drama, RTE’s / ESRI’s tax-everyone-to-death crowd is getting all excited. In reality, if 2008 was the year Biffo & Co have fallen from grace, 2009 is shaping up to be the year when they will fall through the bottom of hell itself.

The 'savage cuts' were announced at last – ‘adding to just under €2.1bn’ in RTE’s official interpretation. In the mean time, the Exchequer results get sidelined by David Begg’s and Jack O’Connor’s pleading poverty for the public sector workers.

Let’s cut through the fog, shall we?

In the entire ‘package’ announced by Cowen the only hard budgetary measure was the pension levy. But even here, Mr Cowen fails the reality test. If the pensions levy is tax deductible – and all indications are that it is – the alleged €1.4bn in savings will shrink to ca €800mln.

The only announced economic rescue measure – some two-years old capital spending programme slightly neutered by the second-largest ‘cut’ of the day. But give it a second to take the perverse 'logic' of this Government's thinking in. If capital spending programme under the NDP is a stimulus package today - in the recession - what on earth was it enacted for some two years ago? To boost rabid inflation to Zimbabwean levels?

The rest of this 'new' package is pure hot air.

Cuts in professional fees and administrative savings?.. This beggars a question why these were not cut by Biffo when he was the Minister for Finance? So, either Biffo was an inept Minister for Finance (in which case he has some room to cut these lines of spending today) or he is an inept Taoiseach (in which case he has no room to cut these). Take your pick.

Child benefit restriction – aiming to save €75mln – is another hit at the same soft target. Remember Budget 2009 – children already got some whacking from our Biffo ‘The Gruffalo’. How much more can he milk out of them, should more ‘adjustments’ be needed in the near future (see below)? Lots! He can tax the un-born off-springs of the rich (income in excess, of oughh, say €150K pa) household.


But all of this pales in comparison with what should have been done by the Government in today’s announcement. As my earlier posts (here and here) estimate, in 2009 we are going to face “a shortfall of up to €7,080mln on 2008 revenue, not €3,898mln as DofF forecast in January. My previous post forecast €7,698mnl shortfall, so January figure appears to be generally supportive of this.”

The latest Exchequer results have just run over my correction – given the latest figures and the dynamic of different tax lines deterioration, we are now facing at the very least a ca €8bn shortfall on 2008 figures. Belatedly, some economists are coming to a realization that this indeed is the case (see here and scroll to Niall Says: February 3rd, 2009 at 7:50 pm comment). We are back to that original estimate of mine and things are likely to get even worse from here on, implying today's cuts should have been in the neigbourhood of €4-5bn!

In the end, Brian Cowen has loudly and publicly declared tonight that anyone expecting him to govern this economy out of the recession is a fool. He hasn’t got the balls, he hasn’t got the ideas and he hasn’t got the Cabinet to do the job. Full stop.

Someone, dial Trichet’s private secretary. We will need his money very soon!

P.S. Here is a problem no one noticed for now. If the basket cases Ireland, Greece and Italy are weighing heavily on the reputation of the Euro, then the lack of an immediate adverse reaction to today’s announcement by the bond markets might suggest that the Magnificent Three are now creating a drag on German bunds. In other words, Irish, Greek and Italian mess is now costing real money to German taxpayers through elevated spreads on the bund. I’d venture to say that Mrs Merkel might be a bit concerned about Brian’s economic flops.