Wednesday, October 1, 2014

1/10/2014: Russian Manufacturing PMI: September


Markit and HSBC released Manufacturing PMI for September for Russia. Here are the headline numbers:

  • Manufacturing PMI declined from 51.0 (signaling already weak expansion) in August to 50.4 in September. 
  • This marks 8th consecutive month of index falling within the range that is statistically indifferent from 50.0. Over the last 3 months, the index was trending just above 50.0 line (not statistically significant difference to 50.0). 
  • 3mo MA for the index is at 50.8. 3mo MA through June 2014 is at 48.8. 3mo MA through September 2013 was at 49.3. This really does illustrate structural slowdown in the Russian economy setting on at around Q4 2012, well before the onset of Kiev protests in November 2013 and much before the onset of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2014.

Today's reading puts into question the hopes of a nascent recovery we could have expected from PMI readings in August. Recall that in July Russian GDP fell estimated 0.2% and in August it posted zero growth. My most recent update on Russian economic situation (from Monday) is here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/09/2992014-russian-economy-briefing-for.html
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