Saturday, February 18, 2012

18/2/2012: Mortgage Arrears Q4 2011

The Central bank of Ireland has published Q4 2011 stats for mortgages arrears. And it's a trend-breaking one. Not quite touching my forecast from Q3 2011 data for 114,000 mortgages at risk (see definition below), but jaw-dropping 108,603 and counting mortgages that were written off since Q34 2010 when more detailed records were first published - closer to 102,200.

Now, let me run through the core details of the data.

The number of outstanding mortgages accounts has fallen from 786,745 in Q4 2010 to 768,917 in Q4 2011 - a drop of 2.19% or 17,247. In previous quarter, yoy decline in mortgages numbers was 1.94% or 15,325. The outstanding balance of mortgages has dropped from €116,683.25 mln in Q4 2010 to €113,477.28 mln in Q4 2011, so yoy Q4 2011 decrease in mortgages balances was 2.75%, against 2.55% decrease yoy in Q3 2011.

Of all mortgages, 17,825 mortgages were in arrears 91-180 days in Q4 2011, an increase of 7.39% qoq and 35.35% yoy. In Q3 2011, qoq increase in same type of mortgages was 5.6% and yoy increase was 33.62%. So the rate of mortgages in arrears 91-180 days category is accelerating in qoq and yoy terms. Mortgages in arrears 91-180 days have accounted for €3,273.8 mln in Q4 2011, which is 7.02% ahead of Q3 2011 and 34.37% ahead of Q4 2010. This means than we are now seeing smaller mortgages (in absolute size) on average entering into arrears. Amounts of arrears in this category rose 10.04% qoq and 13.61% yoy in Q4 2011 to €89.15 mln. This represents another acceleration from Q3 deterioration.

Mortgages in arrears over 180 days (usually seen as mortgages that are extremely highly unlikely to ever rise from the ashes) now stand at 53,086 up 14.5% qoq and 69.4% yoy. Yep, that right, in Q4 2010 there were just 31,338 mortgages in this category. Compare these dynamics to Q3 2011 when same category of mortgages in arrears rose 15.8% qoq and 65.32% yoy. So the dynamics are slightly shallower on qoq but are sharper yoy. Balance of all mortgages in arrears over 180 days now stands at €10,667.02mln - up 14.56% qoq and 72.34% yoy. The dynamics are very much the same as with the number of mortgages - qoq slightly slower growth, yoy accelerating growth.

So total number of mortgages over 90 days in arrears is now 70,911, up 12.61% qoq and 59.32% yoy. In Q3 2011 the quarterly rate of increase in these mortgages was 12.92% and yoy increase was 55.59%. Balance of all mortgages over 90 days in arrears is now €13,490.8mln - up 12.7% qoq and 61.62% yoy, compared to Q3 2011 increase of 14.14% qoq and 58.69% increase yoy. Total amount of arrears registered is €1,117.12mln which is 12.7% ahead of Q3 2011 and 61.62% higher than Q4 2010.

 The above means that a massive 12.29% of all mortgages accounts in Ireland are now in arrears 90 days or over by total volume of mortgages in arrears and 9.22% by the number of mortgages accounts in arrears.

Now, take all mortgages in arrears 90 days or over, add to them those mortgages that were restructured, but are currently not in arrears and the mortgages currently in the process of repossessions. Call this 'mortgages at risk of default, in default or defaulted' or for short, mortgages at risk. Chart below illustrates the stats:

 In Q4 2011 total number of mortgages 'at risk' stood at 108,603 - a number that represents 14.12% of all mortgages in the country. This represents an increase of 8.35% qoq (in q3 2011 qoq rate of increase was 4.44%) and 35.25% yoy.

As chart above shows, there is deterioration in mortgages performance even amidst those mortgages that have been restructured.  Total number of restructured mortgages in Q4 2011 was 74,378, which represents an increase of 6.66% qoq and 25.58% yoy. In Q3 2011 there was a qoq decrease of 0.15%. Of the restructured mortgages, 36,797 were not in arrears in Q4 2011 - an increase of 1.16% qoq and 4.52% yoy. However, while number of restructured mortgages not in arrears rose by 421 in Q4 2011 (qoq), the number of total restructured mortgages rose by 4,644. Which means that some 4,223 restructured mortgages went into new arrears in Q4 2011. Overall, percentage of mortgages that are restructured but are not in arrears has dropped from 59.44% in Q4 2010 to 49.47% in Q4 2011. Restructuring of mortgages now works for less than 50% of restructured mortgages - and that is only within 2 years of the beginning of the entire data on these!

Now, do keep in mind that restructuring was quite severe in many cases. See bottom of CBofI release on this here. And it doesn't seem to work all too well for just over 50% of those entering new temporary arrangements. So what will happen to these families when the 'temporary' arrangements expire?
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