12/5/18: Monetary Activism at ECB: A Chart of Failure

A simple chart, a great observation by Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Chart of failure: #Eurozone core inflation has plunged to 0.7% despite #ECB balance sheet at record high. If ECB permanently fails to hit its #inflation target, it's time to rethink target. By the way, there is inflation in stocks, bonds, real estate not measured in official CPI."

The story of ECB racing away from the Fed and even BoJ in pursuit of the inflation Nirvana:

Which brings us to a bigger question: with ECB at play, what is there to brag about when it comes to Europe's latest growth "renaissance"? Read my article in the Business Post tomorrow... 

12/5/18: U.S. War in Afghanistan: when the patient yields to the compulsion to repeat

On and off, I have written occasionally about the complete lack of value-for-money accounting in the U.S. military spending and its imaginary successes. This is just another one of such occasions.

Here is a summary of the Special Report by the U.S. military watchdog, filed by the neoconservative in it is geopolitical positioning Foreign Policy magazine (the folks who support wars, like the one conducted in the Afghanistan): http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/01/the-afghan-war-isnt-being-won-says-new-pentagon-audit/.

I have summed the main findings in a series of tweets reproduced here:

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan reconstruction report of May 1: suicide attacks in Afghanistan up 50% in 2017, opium production +63%. Last GDP growth was recorded in 2012, since then, continued recession +

+ U.S. spent $126bn in relief & investment in Afghanistan over 17 years. The country now ranks 183 in the world to "do business.” < 1/3 of Afghans are connected to power grid. +

+ Number of bombs dropped by the West in Afghanistan in Jan-Feb 2018 was the highest it's been since 2013. Suicide attacks in Afghanistan are up 50% in 2017. Casualties from attacks are steadily rising. Sectarian attacks tripled in 2017. +

+ Only 65% of the Afghan population lives under government control, even though direct US expenditures to Afghan security forces of $78bn > than third largest military budget in the world. +

+ Number of serving Afghan military & police fell sharply in 2017, but U.S. forces presence is rising. "Insider attacks by Afghan soldiers are rising".

Note: the IMF data does not show decline in Afghanistan's GDP since 2013 in real terms (domestic currency), or in current US dollar terms, or in PPP-adjusted terms. The issue here is that the IMF data shows national accounts that include U.S. and Western Coalition spending and investment in the country and does not account for population growth. In fact: Afghanistan ranked 23rd lowest in the world in income per capita terms (using PPP-adjusted international dollars) in 2012. In 2017 it was ranked 19th lowest. This does mean that the economy got worse in Afghanistan in recent years. In line with this, Reuters reported earlier this year that Afghanistan's poverty rates have risen "sharply" over the last five years (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-economy/afghanistans-poverty-rate-rises-as-economy-suffers-idUSKBN1I818X) from 38% in 2011-2012, to 55% in 2016-2017. "Food insecurity has risen from 30.1 percent to 44.6 percent in five years, meaning many more people are forced to sell their land, take their children out of school to work or depend on food aid".

More details?  In September 2014, Foreign Policy wrote about another report by the same watchdog, headlining their story with a telling tag line: "Watchdog: United States Made Corruption in Afghanistan ‘Pervasive and Entrenched’". It is worth repeating that Foreign Policy is an intellectual bulwark of neoconservative doctrine that saw nothing wrong with any war the U.S. has started in the past.

The U.S. has already spent more on the war in Afghanistan (and related 'investments' there) than the entire country's GDP over the last decade. And it is tied into spending vastly more (https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/11/21/war-and-debt-and-fiscal-ramifications-to-2053/#651c540b3d51 and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2017/11/201117-tallying-costs-us-wars-in-iraq.html).

In January this year, to make the valiant efforts by the Western Coalition (read: Washington) in Afghanistan more transparent, Pentagon sought to withhold key information about the campaign from the public (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-usa-oversight/pentagon-blocks-release-of-key-data-on-afghan-war-watchdog-idUSKBN1FJ0GZ).

Yet, despite the U.S. larger-than-reported presence in the country, January report by SIGAR noted that  "43 percent of Afghanistan’s districts were either under Taliban control or being contested". This was after more than 16 years of war waged against the Taliban and other extremist groups by the largest, the mightiest and the best-equipped military force in the world. "Last year [2017], U.S. forces in Afghanistan restricted the amount of data it provided on the ANDSF, including casualties, personnel strength and attrition rates - data that has now been completely withheld." (See https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pentagon-fails-to-disclose-troop-numbers-in-syria-iraq-afghanistan/ for more details).

In 2011, ten years into the campaign that promised to bring democracy and human rights to Afghanistan, the U.S. State Department stopped listing human rights as an objective for the U.S. Afghanistan policies. Not because these rights have been fully restored (or rather instituted), but because it became too embarrassing to keep them in policy documents as a reminder of the U.S. failures.

Seventeenth year into what amounts to a small war for the enormous military machine of the Fourth Rome, and the 'most brilliant', 'highly decorated', grossly overpaid and deeply revered in the popular media culture U.S. generals and politicos are clueless as to why the exceptionalist U.S. of A. has failed to control a dispersed gang of resistance fighters that, unlike the Vietnamese of the 1970s and the North Koreans of the 1950s, do not even have a superpower standing directly behind them. The reason, of course, is in the very ethos of the American power, the notions of exceptionalism and self-appointed mandate, both of which imply zero capacity to think based on historical and rational premises. As one of the authors on the topic quipped, quoting from Freud's 1914 paper Recollecting, Repeating, and Working Through,  "...the patient yields to the compulsion to repeat, which now replaces the impulsion to remember... The greater the resistance, the more extensively will acting out repetition replace remembering."

The Freud's quote (part of it) appears in this article from 2017 on the depressing comprehensiveness of the American war failure. It is worth a read: https://www.thenation.com/article/what-the-us-military-still-doesnt-understand-about-afghanistan/ for it narrates in some detail the process of the repeated denial of reality by, at this stage, the third presidential administration in Washington engaged in an imperial dance of victory amidst the defeat.

The staggering cost of the Washington's adventurism in Afghanistan (and Iraq, and Libya, and next up - Syria, as well as in other parts of the world) has now cost the U.S. one of its historically closest proxies/allies, Pakistan (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-pakistan-idUSKCN1B3125).  This is a major, strategic defeat, given Pakistan's role in the region and the potential for the strengthening of the Pakistan-India-China-Iran cluster of power contests that will undoubtedly shape the entire region into the future. In simple terms, the U.S. has lost not just the war in Afghanistan, but it is losing dominance over the large swath of land that constitutes the largest cluster of world's population and has strategically central importance to the global economy and resources.

These failures are not surprising, once one takes a more rational look at the U.S. military machine and the religious devotion to it exhibited by Washington and American press. Quoting at length from Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/11/21/war-and-debt-and-fiscal-ramifications-to-2053/#370435f3d51a):

"As it happens, the Pentagon is unique among federal agencies in having never undergone a full audit, an oversight with serious national security consequences. ...The good news is Congress has finally mandated an audit be completed by September of 2017, a deadline reached after the Department of Defense managed to skirt a government-wide audit requirement for more than two decades. The bad news is likely the audit results themselves. After all, a recent audit of the Army General Fund found bookkeepers somehow screwed up their accounting by $6.5 trillion in 2015. That number is particularly remarkable given that it is 13 times the size of the entire Pentagon budget for that year. “How could the Army misplace, fudge, misappropriate or otherwise lose $6.5 trillion?” asked an incredulous Matthew Gault reporting on the Army audit for War Is Boring. “It’s simple. Years of no oversight, bad accounting practices and crappy computer systems created this problem. And remember, this is just the Army and just its general fund.” If that’s the sort of rot we find in a single branch of the military, imagine the fiscal horrors yet to be uncovered throughout."

Note: the Defense Department delayed the audit start until December 2017 and is now promising a report from the auditors by November 2018. Worse, the audit is conducted by internal teams, in other words, the lunatics who run the asylum are now counting plates and pills in the place too. To put some veneer on this exercise, the Inspector General has hired 'external audit firms' to help analyse data collected by Pentagon's teams. The same 'audit firms' are some of the largest military and security consulting contractors, of course.

Meanwhile, the idiotic parroting of the past and failed narratives remains the leitmotif of the Washington's policy. Best exemplified by the amnesia-ridden, Ivy League-trained army of status quo dependent 'experts' and the headlines in the U.S. media echoing them: https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-11-27/victory-or-failure-in-afghanistan-2018-will-be-the-deciding-year. "Armed with a new strategy and renewed support from old allies, the Trump administration now believes it has everything it needs to win the war in Afghanistan." This, pretty much, sums up the best that the American-trained 'intellectual class' of the West Point-graduated generals and Harvard-trained 'analysts' can produce in place of a strategy.

The logical denouement of the U.S. failure to learn from Afghanistan adventure is the loss of the U.S. position in the region to China, followed by Iran, Pakistan, India and Russia - in that exact order. Afghanistan is likely to be the next - much larger than Syria - theatre of confrontation between Iran and Saudi-U.S. coalition, with Israel at a play too, and the American liabilities in such a conflict will be well beyond anything experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. A proxy war between Iran and the U.S. via Afghanistan can risk spilling into an outright war between the two countries, which the U.S. will lose more decisively than Afghanistan, although the toll on Iran will be huge as well.

What Afghanistan has been exposing over the last 16 years, plus, is that the Pax Americana lacks not fire power, but vision, and that the lack of vision is what loses wars, and ends empires. Sail on, my thought-lacking friends from the Western Academia, military colleges, Washington's circles of Byzantine power-brokering expertise, and 'influential media'. Keep those aircraft carriers busy circling the globe. Keep awarding your military ranks free parking spaces at Walmarts and rent subsidies in the Paradise.

8/5/18: BRICS DECK: Part 2: PMIs, Investment and Inflation

In a recent post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/05/3518-brics-deck-2018-imf-updates.html) I have provided top level analysis of growth dynamics in the BRICS economies based on the IMF WEO April 2018 update. Here is the section of my BRICS deck with updated view on PMIs, Aggregate Investment and Inflation:

8/5/18: Law of Unintended Consequences and Complexity: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017

The law of unintended consequences (or second order effects, as we call in economics) is ironclad: any policy reform has two sides to the coin, the side of forecasted and analyzed changes the reform engenders, and the side of consequences that appear after the reform has been enacted. The derivative proposition to this theorem is that the first side of the coin is what gets promoted by politicos in selling the reform, while the other side of the coin gets ignored until its consequences smack you in the face.

Behold the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017, aka Trump's Tax Cuts, aka GOP's Gift for the Rich, aka... whatever you want to call it. Fitch Ratings recently released their analysis of the Act's unintended consequences, the impact the new law is likely to have on U.S. States' fiscal positions. And it is a tough read (see full note here: https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10025493).

"Recently enacted federal tax changes (H.R.1) are making budgeting and revenue forecasting more complex for many U.S. state governments," says Fitch. "...provisions including the cap on SALT deductions are a likely trigger behind a spike in state revenue collections for the current fiscal year. In Massachusetts for example, individual income tax collections through January 2018 were up nearly 12% from the prior year, this after the commonwealth recorded just 3% annual growth in January 2017. Many states are seeing robust year-over-year gains in revenue collections, though this will likely amount to little more than a one-time boost with income tax collections set to level off for the rest of the fiscal year."

State tax revenues can increase this year because, for example, of reduced Federal tax liabilities faced by households. As income tax at federal level falls, State tax deductions taken by households on their personal income for Federal tax liabilities will also fall, resulting in an increase in tax revenues to the States. Similarly, as Federal corporate income tax falls, and, assuming, corporate income rises, States will be able to collect increased revenues from the corporate activity domiciled in their jurisdictions. All of this implies higher tax revenues for the States. Offsetting these higher tax revenues, the Federal Government transfers to the individual states will likely decline as deficits balloon and as Pentagon demands an ever-greater share of Federal Budget.

In other words, the tax cuts are working, but do not expect these to continue working into the future. Or put differently, don't spend one-off revenue increases, folks. For high-spending States, like California, it is tempting to throw new money onto old bonfires, increasing allocations to public pensions and state hiring programs. But 2017 Tax Reform is a combination of permanent and temporary measures, with the latter more dominant than the former. Expiration of these measures, as well as complex interaction between various tax measures, suggest that the longer term effect of the Act on States' finances is not predictable and cannot be expected to remain in place indefinitely.

As Fitch noted: "Assessing the long-term implications of H.R. 1 will not be an easy task due to the complicated interrelationships of the law changes and because many of the provisions are scheduled to expire within the next decade. Yet-to-be finalized federal regulations around the tax bill and the possibility of additional federal legislation add more complexity and risk for states."

8/5/18: Germany's ifo: World Economic Climate Deteriorates

Here is the summary of the Germany's ifo Institute World Economic Climate outlook update (emphasis is mine):

"The ifo World Economic Climate has deteriorated. The indicator dropped from 26.0 points to 16.5 points in the second quarter, returning to more or less the same level as in the fourth quarter of 2017. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation remained as favourable as last quarter, but their expectations are far less optimistic. The world economy is still experiencing an upturn, but it is losing impetus.

The economic climate deteriorated in nearly all regions. Both assessments of the current economic situation and expectations fell significantly in the USA. In the European Union, Latin America, the CIS countries, the Middle East and North Africa economic expectations also cooled down. Assessments of the current economic situation, by contrast, improved. Economic expectations also clouded over in the Asian emerging economies and developing countries. Assessments of the current economic situation, by contrast, remained more or less unchanged.

In line with rising inflation expectations, short and long-term interest rates will rise over the next six months. Experts also expect far weaker growth in world trade, partly because they are reckoning with higher trade barriers. Overall, experts expect world gross domestic product to increase by 3.9 percent this year."

This is in line with my recent warnings on the pressures building up in the global economy, as raised in a series of recent articles for the Sunday Business Post see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/04/27418-global-growth-and-irelands.html and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/02/27218-volatility-uncertainty-are-back.html, and for the Cayman Financial Review see: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/04/27418-goldilocks-economy-of-state.html.

3/5/18: BRICS Deck 2018: IMF Updates

The first part of my slidedeck on BRICS economies, covering headline growth and macro performance dynamics and forecasts from the IMF WEO database:

3/5/18: Irish Exchequer Returns: April 2018

My article on Irish Exchequer returns for April 2018 is now available on Sunday Business Post site: https://www.businesspost.ie/business/no-fiscal-panic-yet-figures-highlight-tax-uncertainty-spending-weaknesses-415535.

28/4/18: Unintended Consequence of Tax Audits

The law of unintended consequences applies to all policies and all state systems design, including tax policies, tax laws and tax enforcement. This is a statement of truism. And it  works both ways. A well-designed policy to promote income supports and aligned incentives to work, for example, can have an unintended impact of increasing fraud. Conversely, a measure to enforce the policy to prevent fraud can result in undoing some of the positive impacts of the policy which it was designed to deliver. These statements are also a form of truism.

However, rarely do we see research into the unintended consequences of core tax policies delivering a negative view of the perceived wisdom of regulators and enforcers. Instead, we tend to think of tax laws enforcement as an unquestionable good. Fraud and tax evasion prevention are seen as intrinsically important to the society, and the severity of penalties and punishments imposed on non-compliance (whether by error or design) is seen as being not only just, but pivotal to the sustainability of the entire tax system. Put differently, there is an inherent asymmetry in the relationship between tax payers and tax enforcers: the former face potentially devastating penalties for even minor infringements, while the latter face zero cost for wrongfully accusing the former of such infringements. Tax audits are free of consequences to enforcers, and tax audits are of grave consequences to those being audited.

In this environment, tax audits can lead to severe distortions in the balance of intended and unintended consequences of the tax law. Yet, rarely such distortions are considered in the academic literature. The prevalent wisdom that the tax authorities are always right to audit and severely punish lax practices is, well, prevalent.

One recent exception to this rule is a very interesting paper, titled “Tax Enforcement and Tax Policy: Evidence on Taxpayer Responses to EITC Correspondence Audits” by John Guyton, Kara Leibel, Dayanand S. Manoli, Ankur Patel, Mark Payne, and Brenda Schafer (NBER Working Paper No. 24465, March 2018).  Five of the six authors work for Uncle Sam in either IRS or Treasury.

The paper starts by explaining how EITC audits work. "Each year, the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) sends notices to selected taxpayers who claim Earned Income Tax credit (EITC) benefits to request additional documentation to verify those claims." Worth noting here, that IRS' EITC audits are the lowest cost audits from the point of view of the taxpayers who face them: they are based on email exchanges between IRS and the audited taxpayer and request pretty limited information. In this, the EITC audits should create lower unintended consequences in the form of altering taxpayers' behavior than, say, traditional audits that require costly engagement of specialist accountants and lawyers by the taxpayers being audited.

So, keep in mind, fact 1: EITC audits are lower cost audits from taxpayer's perspective.

The study then proceeds to examine "the impacts of these correspondence audits on taxpayer behavior." The study specifically focuses on the labor market changes in response to audits. Now, in spirit, EITC was created in the first place to incentivise greater labor force participation and work effort for lower income individuals. The authors describe the EITC as "the United States’ largest wage subsidy antipoverty program."

Thus, keep in mind, fact 2: EITC was created to improve labor supply choices by lower income individuals.

As noted by the authors, "because these correspondence audits often lead to the disallowance of EITC benefits for many individuals, we are able to examine how the disallowance of EITC benefits affects individuals’ labor supply decisions." The authors use audits data for 2010-2012 and have accompanying administrative data for 2001-2016, so the "data allow for analysis of short-term changes in behaviors one year after the audit, as well as persistent or longer-term changes in behaviors up to six years after the audit".

The study "results indicate significant changes in taxpayer behavior following an EITC correspondence audit. In the year after being audited, we estimate a decline in the likelihood of claiming EITC of roughly 0.30, or 30 percentage points. The decrease in the likelihood of claiming EITC benefits persists for multiple years after the EITC correspondence audits, although the size of the effect is reduced over time." In year four, the likelihood of audited EITC filers still filing EITC claims is 1/4 of that for non-audited higher risk EITC filers.

Now, logical question is: was the decrease down to audits weeding out fraudulent claims? The answer is, not exactly. "Much of the decline in claiming EITC benefits following an EITC correspondence audit appears driven by decreases in the likelihood of filing a tax return." Authors suggest that 2/3rds of the decline in EITC filings post-audit is down to taxpayers stopping filing any tax returns post-audit. Which means that even some of the taxpayers who continue to file returns post-EITC audit are dropping out of EITC system.

Audits seem to trigger reductions in tax liabilities post-audit for self-employed taxpayers (ca $300 in a year following the audit) and no changes in tax liabilities post-audit for wage earners. This suggests that post-audit reported incomes either fall (for the self-employed) or remain static for those in employment. This, in turn, suggests that EIDC audits do not lead to improvements in income status for those audited by the IRS. In other words, audits do not reinforce or improve the stated objectives of EITC (see fact 2 above).

"For the Self-Employed, we estimate an increase in labor force participation (where labor force participation is defined in terms of having positive W-2 wage earnings), possibly indicating some reallocation of labor supply from self-employment to wage employment. In contrast, for Wage Earners, we estimate a decrease in labor force participation following the EITC correspondence audits."

Thus, we have fact 4: self-employed are likely to switch their income from self-employment to wages post-audit, while wage earners tend to drop their labor force participation post-audit.

The former part of fact 4 suggests can be reflective of fraudulent behavior by some self-employed who might over-state their self-employment income prior to audit in order to draw EIDC tax credits. The latter effect, however, clearly contravenes the stated objective of the EIDC system. On the first point, quick clarification via the authors of the study:"Intuitively, some lower-income individuals may increase reported self-employment (non-third-party verified) income, possibly by choosing to disclose more income, invent income, or not disclose expenses, to claim the EITC, but if they are detected by audit, they may become averse to inventing self-employment income for purposes of claiming EITC and without this income they may not file a tax return. These taxpayers may perceive the payoff from not filing as better than the payoff from filing and correctly reporting income."

Now, one can think of the effect on self-employment to be a relatively positive one. "Following the disallowance of EITC benefits due to an EITC correspondence audit, taxpayers with self-employment income on their audited returns appear more likely to have wage earnings in the next year, perhaps to offset the loss of EITC as a financial resource." But that is only true if we consider self-employment as a substitute for employment. In contrast, if self-employment is viewed as potentially entrepreneurial activity, such substitution harms the likelihood of entrepreneurship amongst lower earners. The study does not cover this aspect of the enforcement outcomes.

In measured terms, if EITC audits were successful in reinforcing EITC intended objectives, post-audits, we should see increases in wages and earnings for EITC audited individuals. Thus, we should see migration of lower earners EITC recipients to higher earners. Put differently, the share of higher earners within EITC eligible population should rise, while the share of lower earners should fall.

This is not what appears to be happening. Instead, we see increase in density (share) of lower earnings and slight decreases in densities of higher earnings:

Unambiguously, however, the study shows the damaging effects of audits: they tend to reduce labor force participation, offsetting the intended positive effects of the EITC program, and they tend to increase income tax non-filing, effectively pushing taxpayers into a much graver offence of income tax non-compliance.

Yet, still, we continue to insist that punitive, aggressive audit practices designed to impose maximal damage on tax codes violating taxpayers is a good thing. There has to be a more effective way to enforce the tax codes than throwing pain of audits around at random.

28/4/18: The Great Recovery with No Savings: U.S. Households' Meet 'Exceptionalism'

Via @bySamRo, a chart from Deutsche Bank research:

Which, of course, illustrates the marvels of the current 'recovery' cycle - a steady rise in the proportion of U.S. households with no wealth. More than 30 percent of all U.S. households have zero or negative non-housing wealth.

To pair this with other data, here is the U.S. household saving rate:

And here are the median saving account levels by age:

Not scared yet? Ok, here's another fact: according to Bankrate's financial security index survey, released in January 2018, only 39 percent of Americans said they would be able to finance a $1,000 emergency spending using their savings. In 2016, a survey found that 69 percent of Americans had less than USD1,000 in savings, while 34 percent had zero savings.

A dental emergency, even with a dental insurance coverage, can knock a good half of 69 percent of the U.S. households into zero savings territory. Credit cards and personal loans are de facto shoring up the Great American Dream for the vast swathes of the middle classes. Some 'exceptionalism', folks...

27/4/18: The Goldilocks Economy of State Policies

My column for the current issue of the Cayman Financial Review is out: http://www.caymanfinancialreview.com/2018/04/19/the-goldilocks-economy-of-state-policies/.

27/4/18: Global growth and Ireland's prospects: 2018-2019

My article for last weekend's edition of Sunday Business Post on the implications of peak cycle in global growth for Ireland: https://www.businesspost.ie/business/risks-global-growth-cloud-irelands-future-414819.

25/4/18: 90 years of Volatility: VIX & S&P

A great chart from Goldman Sachs via @Schuldensuehner showing extreme events in markets volatility using overlay of VIX and realised volatility from 1928 on through March 2018:

For all risk / implied risk metrics wonks, this is cool.