11/11/2012: Property prices bust 2008-2012

House prices changes peak-to-2009 then 2009-present:

Via Goldman Sachs.

With core driver - fundamentals:

Note Spain (my analysis): fundamentals-driven house prices are yet to travel down to below Irish markets drop... This, of course, is not a precise fully deterministic model (feed-back loops from unemployment to house prices are also going from house prices to unemployment), but it is clear that Spanish property is still 'overvalued' grossly relative to fundamentals.

And here's some other 'bad' news:

Taking the comparative above (again, my reading of the chart), a combination of fiscal direction and debt levels implies Irish house prices are still overvalued by up to 20% or so. Spanish ones - by about 10-15%...

Full note here.

Note: these are not my forecasts. I am only pointing out the direction that the above figures above imply in my view for the property markets.

7/8/2012: Real-time evidence on Irish lending bubble collapse

A revealing table from the danske Bank H1 2012 results which hardly needs much of a commentary:

Impairments:

• Northern Ireland 3.5% of lending
• Banking Activities Ireland (non-toxic stuff) 4.16%
• Non-core Ireland (toxic stuff) 18.67%
• Total Banking Activities 0.80
• banking activities Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway from 0.17% to 0.47%

And that's about all you need to know. 

But in case you want more - the report is available here.

Oh, and few more revealing tables:

Now, in the above, non-core (toxic) stuff from Ireland is accounting for 72.5% of all charges taken. Nicely done!